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Archive for Stock Market News – Page 4

10 Nov

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500 & Nasdaq

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (50,742 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (10,970 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (3,306 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the VIX (-15,096 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-13,952 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-3,151 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-498 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Russell-Mini & S&P500-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Russell-Mini (88 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (82 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (81 percent) and VIX (81 percent) come in right behind them as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (16 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (81.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (94.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (81.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (74.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (81.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (76.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (64.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (47.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (88.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (90.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (16.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (31.3 percent)

S&P500-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (22 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (0.1 percent) is the only other positive mover (just barely) in the latest trends data.

The MSCI EAFE-Mini (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the VIX (-11 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-10.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (4.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (22.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (27.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-4.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-8.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (0.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-21.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-9.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (6.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (16.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-14.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (6.3 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week was a net position of -16,668 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,096 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,572 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.541.18.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.337.37.8
– Net Position:-16,66813,0173,651
– Gross Longs:87,632141,43530,551
– Gross Shorts:104,300128,41826,900
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.319.093.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.55.421.7

 

S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 113,440 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 50,742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.567.712.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.278.67.1
– Net Position:113,440-233,202119,762
– Gross Longs:374,8811,448,167272,336
– Gross Shorts:261,4411,681,369152,574
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.77.798.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:22.2-23.911.1

 

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 12,931 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,625 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.050.718.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.070.613.9
– Net Position:12,931-17,1174,186
– Gross Longs:24,19543,81416,160
– Gross Shorts:11,26460,93111,974
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.313.479.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.12.54.7

 

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 16,092 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 10,970 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.857.215.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.568.110.7
– Net Position:16,092-27,65811,566
– Gross Longs:62,784144,58038,511
– Gross Shorts:46,692172,23826,945
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.122.276.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.11.9-3.5

 

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,792 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,151 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,943 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.072.27.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.077.54.0
– Net Position:8,792-23,53714,745
– Gross Longs:80,594324,13432,917
– Gross Shorts:71,802347,67118,172
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.09.578.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.07.90.7

 

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:2.070.227.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.755.719.5
– Net Position:-2,4641,576888
– Gross Longs:2217,6203,008
– Gross Shorts:2,6856,0442,120
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.3 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.237.560.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.34.81.0

 

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -48,823 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,871 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.989.22.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.480.11.2
– Net Position:-48,82342,0046,819
– Gross Longs:36,603414,17812,337
– Gross Shorts:85,426372,1745,518
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.1 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.479.851.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.015.7-9.6

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News
07 Nov

UHS, LRCX & LDOS top latest Large Cap Stocks that made our Watchlist in October

By InvestMacro Research

The fourth quarter of 2024 is about halfway over and today we wanted to highlight some of the top companies that have recently been added to our Cosmic Rays Watchlist. The Cosmic Rays Watchlist is the output from our proprietary fundamental analysis algorithm that analyzes over one thousand companies.

The algo examines company fundamental metrics, earnings trends and overall sector strength trends. The aim is identify quality dividend-paying companies on the NYSE and Nasdaq stock exchanges. If a company scores over 50, it gets added to our Watchlist for further analysis.

We use this system as a stock market ideas generator and to update our Watchlist every quarter. However, be aware this fundamental system does not take the stock price as a direct element in our rating so one must compare each idea with their current stock prices (read: this is not a timing tool!).

Disclaimer: Markets are currently at all-time highs and many studies are consistently showing overvalued markets and that always has to be taken into consideration with any stock market idea.

As with all investment ideas, past performance does not guarantee future results. Remember, a stock added to our list is not a recommendation to buy or sell the security but merely a starting point for your own in-depth analysis.

 

Here are 5 of our Top Stocks scored in October 2024:

Leidos Holdings, Inc. (LDOS):

Leidos Holdings, Inc. (Symbol: LDOS) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. LDOS scored a 73 in our fundamental rating system on October 30th, 2024.

At time of writing, only 2.00% of stocks have scored a 70 or better out of a total of 10,417 scores in our earnings database. This stock is on our Watchlist for the first time and rose by 70 system points from our last update.

LDOS is a Large Cap stock and part of the Technology sector. The industry focus for LDOS is Information Technology Services.

Company Description:

Leidos Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides services and solutions in the defense, intelligence, civil, and health markets in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Defense Solutions, Civil, and Health.

Company Website: https://www.leidos.com

 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Leidos Holdings, Inc. (LDOS)22.082.870.7
– Benchmark Symbol: XLK44.232.11.2

 

* Data through November 06, 2024

Universal Health Services, Inc. (UHS):

Universal Health Services, Inc. (Symbol: UHS) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. UHS scored a 85 in our fundamental rating system on October 25th, 2024.

At time of writing, only 0.75% of stocks have scored a 80 or better out of a total of 10,417 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 6 times and rose by 3 system points from our last update.

UHS is a Large Cap stock and part of the Healthcare sector. The industry focus for UHS is Medical – Care Facilities.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Universal Health Services, Inc., through its subsidiaries, owns and operates acute care hospitals, and outpatient and behavioral health care facilities. The company operates through Acute Care Hospital Services and Behavioral Health Care Services segments.

Company Website: https://uhs.com

 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Universal Health Services, Inc. (UHS)13.565.431.28
– Benchmark Symbol: XLV25.115.270.7

 

* Data through November 06, 2024

Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX):

Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (Symbol: FIX) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. FIX scored a 68 in our fundamental rating system on October 25th, 2024.

At time of writing, only 4.76% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 10,417 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 3 times and rose by 20 system points from our last update.

FIX is a Large Cap stock and part of the Industrials sector. The industry focus for FIX is Engineering & Construction.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Comfort Systems USA, Inc. provides mechanical and electrical installation, renovation, maintenance, repair, and replacement services for the mechanical and electrical services industry in the United States. It engages in the design, engineering, integration, installation, and start-up of mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) systems; and renovation, expansion, maintenance, monitoring, repair, and replacement of existing buildings.

Company Website: https://www.comfortsystemsusa.com

 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX)33.3118.831.13
– Benchmark Symbol: XLI30.433.961.1

 

* Data through November 06, 2024

Lam Research Corporation (LRCX):

Lam Research Corporation (Symbol: LRCX) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. LRCX scored a 77 in our fundamental rating system on October 24th, 2024.

At time of writing, only 2.00% of stocks have scored a 70 or better out of a total of 10,417 scores in our earnings database. This stock is on our Watchlist for the first time and rose by 61 system points from our last update.

LRCX is a Large Cap stock and part of the Technology sector. The industry focus for LRCX is Semiconductors.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Lam Research Corporation designs, manufactures, markets, refurbishes, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the fabrication of integrated circuits.

Company Website: https://www.lamresearch.com

 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Lam Research Corporation (LRCX)24.920.491.48
– Benchmark Symbol: XLK44.232.11.2

 

* Data through November 06, 2024

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF):

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (Symbol: CF) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. CF scored a 50 in our fundamental rating system on October 31st, 2024.

At time of writing, only 8.24% of stocks have scored a 50 or better out of a total of 10,417 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 3 times and rose by 45 system points from our last update.

CF is a Large Cap stock and part of the Basic Materials sector. The industry focus for CF is Agricultural Inputs.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and sells hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and other industrial activities worldwide. Its principal products include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, and ammonium nitrate products.

Company Website: https://www.cfindustries.com

 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)13.29.310.95
– Benchmark Symbol: XLB18.418.91.2

 

* Data through November 06, 2024

By InvestMacro – Be sure to join our stock market newsletter to get our updates and to see more top companies we add to our stock watch list.

All information, stock ideas and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Stock scores are a data driven process through company fundamentals and are not a recommendation to buy or sell a security. Company descriptions provided by sec.gov.

Opinions Stock Market Ideas Stock Market News
03 Nov

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500 & Nasdaq Minis

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500 & Nasdaq Minis

The COT stock markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (39,717 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (2,462 contracts) also showing a rising week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Russell-Mini (-6,844 contracts), the VIX (-5,597 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-2,611 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (-498 contracts) and with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-143 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

 

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard


Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (95 percent) and the Russell-Mini (90 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (76 percent) and S&P500-Mini (74 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (31 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (94.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (100.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (74.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (68.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (76.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (80.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (47.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (43.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (90.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (94.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (31.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (31.5 percent)

S&P500-Mini & Russell-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (28 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Russell-Mini (6 percent), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (6 percent) and the VIX (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-22 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently followed by the DowJones-Mini (-8 percent) with a lower trend score.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (4.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (17.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (27.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (12.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-8.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (6.6 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-21.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-35.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (6.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (8.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (16.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (6.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-5.9 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,572 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,597 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,025 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.540.09.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.040.87.8
– Net Position:-1,572-2,5964,168
– Gross Longs:95,529129,72629,505
– Gross Shorts:97,101132,32225,337
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):94.95.895.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.5-11.837.0

 

S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 62,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 39,717 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,981 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.968.112.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.076.37.3
– Net Position:62,698-177,608114,910
– Gross Longs:366,9151,476,451272,342
– Gross Shorts:304,2171,654,059157,432
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.115.496.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:27.7-29.713.7

 

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 9,625 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,611 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,236 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.753.318.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.067.714.6
– Net Position:9,625-12,9023,277
– Gross Longs:23,11847,98016,452
– Gross Shorts:13,49360,88213,175
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.8 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.019.574.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.14.511.6

 

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 5,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,462 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.559.415.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.565.711.1
– Net Position:5,122-16,23811,116
– Gross Longs:57,891152,91639,683
– Gross Shorts:52,769169,15428,567
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.134.775.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.918.3-4.9

 

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 11,943 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,844 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,787 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.071.67.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.377.84.0
– Net Position:11,943-27,13915,196
– Gross Longs:78,765313,57632,828
– Gross Shorts:66,822340,71517,632
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.27.380.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.1-7.08.3

 

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:2.070.227.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.755.719.5
– Net Position:-2,4641,576888
– Gross Longs:2217,6203,008
– Gross Shorts:2,6856,0442,120
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.3 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.237.560.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.34.81.0

 

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -34,871 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,728 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.389.62.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.582.12.0
– Net Position:-34,87131,8433,028
– Gross Longs:31,027379,78111,564
– Gross Shorts:65,898347,9388,536
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.369.232.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.3-2.4-17.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News
25 Oct

Week Ahead: Big Tech set for big gains?

By ForexTime

  • 5 of “Magnificent 7” set to publish earnings
  • Combined market cap of 5 tech titans over $12 trillion
  • Looking past earnings, key focus on AI spending
  • Meta could move over 7.3% ↑ or ↓ post earnings
  • Apple richest company in the world reports results Thursday

Financial markets could end October with a bang thanks to market-moving events.

High-impact data from across the globe, a general election and rate decision in Japan coupled with earnings from tech titans will be in focus:

Sunday, 27th October

  • JP225: Japan holds general election
  • CN50: China industrial profits

Monday, 28th October

  • CAD: Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speech

Tuesday, 29th October

  • JP225: Japan unemployment
  • SG20: Singapore unemployment
  • SPN35: Santander earnings
  • UK100: HSBC earnings
  • US500: Alphabet earnings

Wednesday, 30th October

  • CN50: Major Chinese banks earnings
  • AU200: Australia CPI
  • GER40: Germany GDP, CPI, unemployment, Volkswagen earnings
  • UK100: UK Chancellor of the Exchequer presents budget
  • USDInd: US GDP, ADP employment, pending home sales
  • NAS100: Meta platforms, Microsoft earnings

Thursday, 31st October

  • AU200: Australia building approvals, retail sales
  • CN50: China manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI
  • EU50: Eurozone CPI, unemployment
  • JP225: BoJ rate decision, industrial production, retail sales
  • NAS100: Amazon, Apple earnings, US PCE report, initial jobless claims

Friday, 1st November  

  • CN50: China Caixin manufacturing PMI
  • UK100: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
  • US500: US NFP report, ISM manufacturing, Exxon Mobil earnings
  • US30: Chevron earnings

It’s all about earnings from the tech giants after Tesla’s blockbuster results sent its shares rallying over 20%!

Despite this burst of positivity, US equities are heading for their first weekly loss in almost two months amid rising Treasury yields and political uncertainty.

Five of the “Magnificent” 7 tech giants with a combined market cap of over $12 trillion are set to publish their results in the week ahead.

This is what you need to know:

    1) Alphabet

Google parent company Alphabet reports its third-quarter earnings on Tuesday 29th October after US markets close.

The tech giant is expected to post revenue and income growth, supported by the cloud division of its business. A positive set of results could boost Alphabet shares, already up over 15% year-to-date. Beyond the revenue growth, updates on AI spending will be in focus.

Markets are forecasting a 5.5% move, either Up or Down, for Alphabet stocks post earnings.

Alphabet

 

    2) Microsoft

Microsoft reports its fiscal Q1 2025 earnings on Wednesday 30th October after US markets close.

Despite slipping almost 4% in Q3, its shares are still up roughly 13% year-to-date. In July, when reporting its Q4 results investors were disappointed by the Azure cloud services revenue growth. So much focus will be on cloud services growth, AI development and forward guidance.

Markets are forecasting a 4% move, either Up or Down, for Microsoft stocks post earnings.

microsoft1

 

    3) Meta Platforms

 

Meta is set to report third quarter earnings after US market close on Wednesday 30th October.

Its shares have gained 60% in 2024, taking the tech giants market cap to over $1.4 trillion. Back in Q2, Meta advertising revenues increased 22% – so investors may be seeking for similar results in Q3 to justify recent gains. Watch out for any fresh insight on AI projects including the upcoming Llama 4 set for released in 2025.

Markets are forecasting a 5.9% move, either Up or Down, for Amazon stocks post earnings.

Meta

 

    4) Amazon

Amazon will publish its third-quarter earnings after US markets close on Thursday 31st October.

Quarterly revenues are projected to rise $157.3 billion from $143.1 billion in the prior year, translating to a near 10% increase. Investors will direct their focus toward Amazon’s Web Services (AWS) and advertising business in addition to any updates on AI research.

Markets are forecasting a 5.9% move, either Up or Down, for Amazon stocks post earnings.

amazon

 

    5) Apple

The richest company in the world with a market cap of $3.5 trillion reports its Q4 earnings on Thursday 31st October after US markets close.

Apple is expected to post revenue and earnings growth but it’s all about the performance of iPhone sales. Despite the new iPhone 16 released in September, there have been reports that orders have been cut by 10 million units. Investors will be looking for fresh insight into this development along with any updates on its AI technology through Apple Intelligence features.

Apple shares are up almost 20% year-to-date with markets projecting a 2.6% move, either Up or Down, post earnings.

apple 1

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News
19 Oct

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by S&P500 & Russell 2000 Minis

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & Russell 2000-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (33,779 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (21,330 contracts) and the VIX (3,330 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Nasdaq-Mini (-11,891 contracts), MSCI EAFE-Mini (-2,773 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-1,570 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-498 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (100 percent) and the Russell-Mini (100 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (81 percent) and S&P500-Mini (69 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (35 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently while the next lowest strength score is the Nasdaq-Mini (41 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (100.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (96.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (68.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (63.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (81.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (83.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (41.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (59.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (100.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (85.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (35.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (38.4 percent)

VIX & Russell-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (25 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Russell-Mini (18 percent), the S&P500-Mini (11 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-38 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei USD (-6 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (24.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (25.7 percent)
S&P500-Mini (11.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (11.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (9.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (9.6 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-38.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-12.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (17.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (13.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (16.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-5.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (5.8 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week was a net position of 322 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,330 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,008 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.339.78.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.240.97.2
– Net Position:322-4,0113,689
– Gross Longs:93,877131,46627,394
– Gross Shorts:93,555135,47723,705
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.0100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:24.6-25.511.9

 

S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 28,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 33,779 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,644 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.069.712.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.775.67.8
– Net Position:28,135-129,397101,262
– Gross Longs:350,2271,522,232271,343
– Gross Shorts:322,0921,651,629170,081
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.922.090.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.5-11.32.2

 

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 12,716 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,570 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,286 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.255.816.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.073.313.2
– Net Position:12,716-15,6652,949
– Gross Longs:23,41449,85814,714
– Gross Shorts:10,69865,52311,765
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.8 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.015.572.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.1-12.317.5

 

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,404 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,891 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,295 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.361.516.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.766.611.8
– Net Position:1,404-12,40911,005
– Gross Longs:48,843148,31539,446
– Gross Shorts:47,439160,72428,441
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.338.975.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-38.131.1-7.3

 

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 26,337 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 21,330 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,007 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.869.76.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.078.34.1
– Net Position:26,337-39,01512,678
– Gross Longs:94,562317,47631,364
– Gross Shorts:68,225356,49118,686
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.071.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.8-16.21.1

 

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:2.070.227.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.755.719.5
– Net Position:-2,4641,576888
– Gross Longs:2217,6203,008
– Gross Shorts:2,6856,0442,120
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.3 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.237.560.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.34.81.0

 

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -31,047 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,274 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.988.73.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.482.81.5
– Net Position:-31,04724,1126,935
– Gross Longs:32,341365,04713,105
– Gross Shorts:63,388340,9356,170
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):35.461.151.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.46.3-5.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News
18 Oct

Week Ahead: Tesla kicks off Big Tech earnings

By ForexTime

  • Tesla ↑ almost 60% from 2024 low
  • Earnings released on 23rd October after US market close
  • Impact of price cuts & Q4 outlook in focus
  • Shares could move 6.2% ↑ or ↓ post earnings
  • Technical levels – 50 & 100-day SMA, $213.00

The week ahead is stacked with top-tier data releases, speeches by policymakers, and more quarterly earnings from the largest companies in the world:

Monday, 21st October

  • CN50: China loan prime rates
  • TWN: Taiwan export orders
  • USDInd: US Conference Board leading index, Fed speeches

Tuesday, 22nd October

  • NZD: New Zealand trade
  • EU50: ECB President Christine Lagarde interview
  • UK100: BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speech

Wednesday, 23rd October

  • CAD: BoC rate decision
  • EU50: Eurozone consumer confidence, ECB President Lagarde speech
  • SG20: Singapore CPI
  • ZAR: South Africa CPI
  • TWN: Taiwan industrial production
  • US30: US existing home sales, Fed Beige book, Boeing earnings
  • NAS100: Tesla earnings

Thursday, 24th October

  • EU50: Eurozone/Germany PMIs
  • TWN: Taiwan jobless rate
  • UK100: UK S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI, Barclays earnings
  • RUS2000:  US jobless claims, S&P Global PMIs

Friday, 25th October  

  • CAD: Canada retail sales
  • EU50: Germany IFO business climate
  • JP225: Japan Tokyo CPI
  • SG20: Singapore industrial production, home prices
  • US400: US durable goods, University of Michigan consumer sentiment

Earnings season is in full swing with solid results from the biggest US banks supporting Wall Street. US equity markets could be injected with fresh volatility when big tech companies report their earnings.

One of the world’s largest EV manufacturers with a market cap of over $700 billion will be in focus.

Tesla shares have had a rough year, rebounding from a mid-April rout but still down over 10% in 2024. The company’s stock tumbled in the week ending 11th October after Elon Musk’s Robotaxi unveiling disappointed investors who had hoped for more concrete details.

Still, Tesla shares are up almost 60% from their 2024 low and could push higher or lower depending on how markets react to the latest earnings.

  • When will earnings be published?

Tesla reports its third-quarter earnings on Wednesday 23rd October after US markets close.  

  • Market expectations

The EV manufacturing is forecast to post earnings of $0.60 per share compared to $0.66 a year ago.

Quarterly revenues are seen rising to $25.4 billion from $23.4 billion in the prior year – equating to an 8.5% increase.

  • What to watch out for

Tesla has already published its delivery figures for Q3, revealing that 462,890 vehicles were delivered – a 6.4% increase from last year. While this was below market estimates, it still marked the company’s first quarter of growth in 2024.

Back in April, Tesla announced a fresh round of price cuts in several major markets. It will be interesting to see how this impacted profitability in Q3.

A boost from any recovery in China after reports earlier this month revealed sales of Tesla’s China-made electric vehicles rose 19.2% in September year-on-year.

Earlier this month, there were reports of top executive departures from the company. Investors may comb through the earnings to see how what this could mean for operations.

Any updates on Tesla’s full self-driving software and outlook for the final quarter of 2024 could help investors gauge its business outlook.

  • How will Tesla react to earnings?

Markets are forecasting a 6.2% move, either Up or Down, for Tesla stocks post earnings.

  • Technical picture

Tesla shares are under pressure on the daily timeframe as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs. Prices are trading below the 50-day SMA but support may be offered by the 100 and 200-day SMA. In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is venturing toward 30 – signalling that prices may be oversold.

  • A decline below the 100-day SMA may open a path toward $213.0 and the 200-day SMA at $201.50.
  • Should $213.00 prove to be reliable support, this could send prices toward the 50-day SMA, $232.50 and $250.

Tesla

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News
16 Oct

Netflix earnings preview: Set for fresh all-time highs?

By ForexTime 

  • Netflix ↑ 45% year-to-date
  • Shares could move 7.6% % ↑ or ↓ post-earnings
  • Subscription numbers & live sports offering in focus
  • Technical levels – $735 & $700

Netflix is probably one of the first providers you think about regarding TV streaming services.

And it remains the biggest player in this space, boasting almost 280 million subscribers worldwide!

The company shares have been edging higher, hitting a fresh all-time high at $734.92 last Friday.

Despite the recent selloff, Netflix stocks are still up 45% year-to-date.

Prices could push higher or lower depending on how investors react to the latest earnings report.

  • When will earnings be published?

Netflix will report its earnings for the third quarter after US markets close on Thursday 17th October.

  • Market expectations:

The company is expected to post earnings per share of $5.12 compared to $3.73 a year ago.

Quarterly revenues are seen rising $9.8 billion from $8.5 billion in the prior year – equating to a 15.3% increase.

  • Why is this important?

As the biggest streaming service in the world, Netflix’s results could provide key insights into consumer spending habits and the health of the streaming industry.

  • Key metrics…

When publishing its earnings for Q2 back in July, Netflix reported just under 278 million subscribers.

So, it will be interesting to see what impacts the crackdown on password sharing have on this number.

According to analyst expectations, the streaming giant is expected to report around 286 million active subscribers for Q3 – further solidifying its grip on the throne.

Investors will be looking for more information on live sports offerings, especially when considering how the NFL will see its first games on Netflix on Christmas Day.

  • Potential challenges

In such a competitive industry filled with the likes of Amazon Prime, Disney+, Hulu and Apple TV among others, investors will be keen to see how Netflix fared.

Consumers are spoilt for choice for quality streaming services, and this has the potential to impact the company’s overall results.

  • How will Netflix react to earnings?

Markets are forecasting a 7.6% move, either Up or Down, for Netflix stocks on Thursday post earnings.

  • What does this mean for prices?

A 7.6% move up from $704.56 (current price) will take Netflix shares to a fresh all-time high at $758.

While a 7.6% move down will send prices back toward $651.

  • Technical picture

Although prices have been trending higher on the daily charts, a range can be identified with support at $700 and resistance at $734.92. The incoming earnings report could push the scales of power in favour of bulls or bears.

  • A solid set of earnings could push prices back above the all-time high at $734.92 with $750 acting as a point of interest.
  • If the earnings disappoint, prices could slip below $700 – opening a path back toward the 100-day SMA at $670 and $650.

netflix

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News
12 Oct

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by MSCI EAFE-Mini & VIX

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by MSCI EAFE-Mini & VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (12,869 contracts) and with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (638 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Russell-Mini (-15,342 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (-13,189 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-2,784 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-2,764 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-498 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (100 percent) and the Russell-Mini (88 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (84 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (64 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (38 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (100.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (87.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (63.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (65.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (83.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (88.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (59.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (64.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (88.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (98.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (38.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (37.7 percent)

VIX & Russell-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends


COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (27 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Russell-Mini (14 percent), the S&P500-Mini (11 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei USD (-6 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (26.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (8.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (11.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (13.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (9.6 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (16.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-12.6 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (7.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (14.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (33.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (16.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (5.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (10.3 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -3,008 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,869 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,877 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.440.17.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.338.88.2
– Net Position:-3,0084,478-1,470
– Gross Longs:96,893136,56226,327
– Gross Shorts:99,901132,08427,797
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.079.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:26.6-24.0-10.0

 

S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,644 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,189 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,545 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.171.012.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.475.18.0
– Net Position:-5,644-87,66793,311
– Gross Longs:322,6861,514,535263,087
– Gross Shorts:328,3301,602,202169,776
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.927.886.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.4-8.1-8.2

 

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 14,286 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,764 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,050 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.357.516.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.476.214.4
– Net Position:14,286-15,8431,557
– Gross Longs:20,58548,71313,762
– Gross Shorts:6,29964,55612,205
– Long to Short Ratio:3.3 to 10.8 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):83.515.263.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.6-7.8-3.2

 

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 13,295 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,079 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.856.815.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.566.711.1
– Net Position:13,295-24,75411,459
– Gross Longs:57,058141,99439,326
– Gross Shorts:43,763166,74827,867
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.825.476.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.612.5-6.3

 

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 5,007 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -15,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.872.77.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.676.94.1
– Net Position:5,007-18,47913,472
– Gross Longs:78,784322,42031,844
– Gross Shorts:73,777340,89918,372
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.111.274.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.3-11.3-7.2

 

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:2.070.227.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.755.719.5
– Net Position:-2,4641,576888
– Gross Longs:2217,6203,008
– Gross Shorts:2,6856,0442,120
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.3 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.237.560.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.34.81.0

 

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -28,274 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 638 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,912 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.889.03.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.783.61.5
– Net Position:-28,27422,2925,982
– Gross Longs:31,695363,80312,173
– Gross Shorts:59,969341,5116,191
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.459.346.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.8-4.0-7.6

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News
11 Oct

Week Ahead: Will TSMC rejoin the trillion-dollar club?

By ForexTime 

  • US listed TSMC shares ↑ almost 80% YTD
  • Less than 4% away from all-time high created in July
  • Forward guidance for Q4 in focus
  • FXTM’s TWN index could see fresh volatility
  • Technical levels for TSMC – $192.65, $183.00 and $177.00

Another slew of key data releases and corporate earnings could rock markets in the week ahead:

Saturday, 12th October

  • CN50: China’s Ministry of Finance holds briefing

Sunday, 13th October

  • CN50: China PPI, CPI

Monday, 14th October

  • CN50: China trade
  • US500: Fed Governor Christopher Waller speech

Tuesday, 15th October

  • CAD: Canada CPI, existing home sales
  • EU50: Eurozone industrial production, Germany ZEW survey
  • JP225: Japan industrial production
  • UK100: UK jobless claims, unemployment
  • US500: Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup earnings

Wednesday, 16th October

  • NZD: New Zealand CPI
  • ZAR: South Africa retail sales
  • UK100: UK CPI
  • NETH25: ASML earnings
  • US500: Morgan Stanley earnings

Thursday, 17th October

  • AU200: Australia unemployment
  • EU50: Eurozone CPI, ECB rate decision
  • JP225: Japan tertiary index, trade
  • SG20: Singapore trade
  • NAS100: US retail sales, jobless claims, industrial production, Netflix earnings
  • TWN: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) earnings

Friday, 18th October  

  • CN50: China GDP, retail sales, industrial production, home prices
  • JP225: Japan CPI
  • UK100: UK retail sales

The spotlight shines on the world’s largest contract chipmaker with a market cap of almost $1 trillion.

US-listed shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) are up almost 80% year-to-date, logging only one negative month in 2024.

Note: TSMC shares can be traded on the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) and New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).

Back in July, TSMC shares hit an all-time high at $192.65 after strong Q2 revenues – giving the company a trillion-dollar valuation momentarily before stocks later tumbled.

Still, prices have rebounded since August with a recent report revealing that TSMC’s September sales jumped 39.6% year-on-year.

bloomberg TSMC

This welcome development along with a positive earnings release could push the company’s stock higher.

  • When will earnings be published?

TSMC reports its third-quarter earnings on Thursday 17th October before US markets open.

  • Market expectations

The chipmaker is expected to post earnings of $1.78 per share with Q3 revenues seen rising to $23.28 billion from $17.28 in the prior year.

  • What to watch out for

Back in July, TSMC forecasted third quarter revenue in a range of between $22.4 billion to $23.2 billion.

But the chipmaker has already beaten these forecasts with consolidated sales in Q3 (July – September) hitting $23.6 billion, thanks to AI demand from major clients like Nvidia and Apple.

So much focus will be on the company’s earnings and forward guidance for Q4 which could serve as a key gauge for AI demand.

  • What does this mean for FXTM’s TWN index.

FXTM’s TWN index tracks the underlying FTSE Taiwan RIC Capped Index.

And TSMC makes up just under 20% of the index weighting, meaning that the upcoming earnings could result in heightened volatility.

The index is up almost 3% this month, bringing year-to-date gains to roughly 22%. Prices have been trending higher in recent weeks with the all-time high 7% away at 2046.8.

Key levels of interest can be found at 1930 and 1825.

TWN

  • Technical picture

TSMC shares are trending higher on the weekly charts with prices trading above the 21, 50 and 100-week SMA. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 70 – signaling that prices may be overbought.

TSM

On the daily charts, the trend is bullish with prices are trading less than 4% away from its all-time high created in July at $192.65.

  • A decline below $183.00 may see prices test the 21-day SMA at $177.0 and $170.0.
  • Should $183.0 prove to be reliable support, this may open a path back to the all-time high at $192.65 and beyond.

TSMS1

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News
01 Oct

Can NVDA’s Share Buybacks and AI Innovation Drive the Next Rally?

By The Ino.com Team

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) has undoubtedly been one of the hottest large-cap stocks this year, surging over 150% year-to-date and more than 195% in the past 12 months. This stellar performance is driven by the massive demand for its graphics processing units (GPUs), which help run and train AI algorithms.

For the second quarter that ended July 28, 2024, Nvidia’s revenue increased 122% year-over-year to $30.04 billion and 15% from the first quarter. This robust growth exceeded analysts’ expectations, who had forecasted around $28.75 billion. NVDA’s Data Center Group (primarily connected to its AI operations) generated $26.30 billion in revenue, resulting in a 16% sequential gain and a triple-digit growth of 154% over the same period last year.

The company’s bottom line remained buoyant, with operating income surging 174% from the year-ago value to $18.64 billion. NVDA’s non-GAAP net income amounted to $16.95 billion or $0.68 per share, compared to $6.74 billion or $0.27 per share in the previous year’s quarter, respectively. The chipmaker is now gearing up for new AI hardware releases based on the Blackwell architecture, which could boost demand in the coming years.

Moreover, it forecasted a revenue of $32.50 billion, plus or minus 2%, for its fiscal third quarter, representing an 81.6% growth from the year-ago quarter. However, this slightly falls short of the analysts’ estimates of $32.91 billion.

Is NVDA’s Buyback a Boost for Earnings or a Sign of Investor Fatigue?

In addition to its strong financials, NVIDIA’s board has approved a massive $50 billion share buyback program. This adds to the $7.5 billion remaining from its previous buyback plan. Share repurchases typically boost earnings per share by reducing the number of outstanding shares, making the stock more attractive to investors.

The company has already returned $15.4 billion to shareholders through repurchases and dividends during the first half of fiscal 2025. However, despite the strong financial performance and the buyback announcement, NVDA’s stock dropped around 10% after its earnings report. It seems investors had such high expectations that even strong results weren’t enough to impress them.

“Investors want more, more and more when it comes to Nvidia,” said Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell. “It looks like investors might not have taken the average of analyst forecasts to be the benchmark for Nvidia’s performance, instead, they’ve taken the highest end of the estimate range to be the hurdle to clear.”

On the brighter side, the company’s upcoming AI-focused chips, particularly the Blackwell architecture, are poised to meet rising demand and could reignite investor confidence. While its production has been slightly delayed, the company plans to ramp up shipments in the fourth quarter, with strong demand already building up.

Alongside Blackwell, Nvidia’s Hopper platform continues to see robust demand, and shipments of its upgraded H200 platform are targeting cloud service providers and large enterprises, with more demand expected in the second half of 2024. Thus, Nvidia still has plenty of fuel left to drive another rally.

Bottom Line

Thanks to the surging demand for its AI platforms, upcoming product launches, and a broadening market, we believe that Nvidia is well-positioned for continued expansion. The recent dip in its share price could simply be a brief pause before the next phase of growth unfolds.

Moreover, analysts remain bullish on the chipmaker’s long-term prospects. Out of 42 analysts that rated NVDA, 39 rated it Buy, while three rated it Hold. The 12-month median price target of $152.44 indicates a 22.9% upside potential from the last closing price. The price targets range from a low of $90 to a high of $200.

Therefore, investors looking for long-term opportunities could consider scooping up the shares of this tech giant before the stock regains momentum.

By Ino.com – See our Trader Blog, INO TV Free & Market Analysis Alerts

Source: Can NVDA’s Share Buybacks and AI Innovation Drive the Next Rally?

Opinions Stock Market News
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