• Tesla ↑ almost 60% from 2024 low

• Earnings released on 23rd October after US market close

• Impact of price cuts & Q4 outlook in focus

• Shares could move 6.2% ↑ or ↓ post earnings

• Technical levels – 50 & 100-day SMA, $213.00

The week ahead is stacked with top-tier data releases, speeches by policymakers, and more quarterly earnings from the largest companies in the world:

Monday, 21st October

• CN50: China loan prime rates
• TWN: Taiwan export orders
• USDInd: US Conference Board leading index, Fed speeches

Tuesday, 22nd October

• NZD: New Zealand trade
• EU50: ECB President Christine Lagarde interview
• UK100: BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speech

Wednesday, 23rd October

• CAD: BoC rate decision
• EU50: Eurozone consumer confidence, ECB President Lagarde speech
• SG20: Singapore CPI
• ZAR: South Africa CPI
• TWN: Taiwan industrial production
• US30: US existing home sales, Fed Beige book, Boeing earnings
• NAS100: Tesla earnings

Thursday, 24th October

• EU50: Eurozone/Germany PMIs
• TWN: Taiwan jobless rate
• UK100: UK S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI, Barclays earnings
• RUS2000:  US jobless claims, S&P Global PMIs

Friday, 25th October  

• CAD: Canada retail sales
• EU50: Germany IFO business climate
• JP225: Japan Tokyo CPI
• SG20: Singapore industrial production, home prices
• US400: US durable goods, University of Michigan consumer sentiment

Earnings season is in full swing with solid results from the biggest US banks supporting Wall Street. US equity markets could be injected with fresh volatility when big tech companies report their earnings.

One of the world’s largest EV manufacturers with a market cap of over $700 billion will be in focus.

Tesla shares have had a rough year, rebounding from a mid-April rout but still down over 10% in 2024. The company’s stock tumbled in the week ending 11th October after Elon Musk’s Robotaxi unveiling disappointed investors who had hoped for more concrete details.

Still, Tesla shares are up almost 60% from their 2024 low and could push higher or lower depending on how markets react to the latest earnings.

• When will earnings be published?

Tesla reports its third-quarter earnings on Wednesday 23rd October after US markets close.  

• Market expectations

The EV manufacturing is forecast to post earnings of $0.60 per share compared to $0.66 a year ago.

Quarterly revenues are seen rising to $25.4 billion from $23.4 billion in the prior year – equating to an 8.5% increase.

• What to watch out for

Tesla has already published its delivery figures for Q3, revealing that 462,890 vehicles were delivered – a 6.4% increase from last year. While this was below market estimates, it still marked the company’s first quarter of growth in 2024.

Back in April, Tesla announced a fresh round of price cuts in several major markets. It will be interesting to see how this impacted profitability in Q3.

A boost from any recovery in China after reports earlier this month revealed sales of Tesla’s China-made electric vehicles rose 19.2% in September year-on-year.

Earlier this month, there were reports of top executive departures from the company. Investors may comb through the earnings to see how what this could mean for operations.

Any updates on Tesla’s full self-driving software and outlook for the final quarter of 2024 could help investors gauge its business outlook.

• How will Tesla react to earnings?

Markets are forecasting a 6.2% move, either Up or Down, for Tesla stocks post earnings.

• Technical picture

Tesla shares are under pressure on the daily timeframe as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs. Prices are trading below the 50-day SMA but support may be offered by the 100 and 200-day SMA. In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is venturing toward 30 – signalling that prices may be oversold.

• A decline below the 100-day SMA may open a path toward $213.0 and the 200-day SMA at $201.50.

• Should $213.00 prove to be reliable support, this could send prices toward the 50-day SMA, $232.50 and $250.