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Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling

Here are details of “The Great Cash-Out”

By Elliott Wave International

Corporate insiders may sell the shares of their company for any number of reasons but one of them is not because they think the price is going up.

In other words, insider selling can serve as a warning.

For example, the January 2022 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which covers major U.S. financial markets, noted:

Only one group is selling. … Corporate insiders sold a record $64.5 billion of their firms’ shares through November [2021]. As the December [2021] Theorist noted, insiders “know what their companies are worth,” and “they’ve been selling their heads off.”

This commentary was published within days of the January 2022 highs in the Dow Industrials and S&P 500.

What does all this have to do with today?

You guessed it, insiders are in a selling mood again.

Here are just a few prominent examples:

In the last two months of 2023, Mark Zuckerberg, the executive chairman of Meta Platforms (Facebook), sold $400 million worth of Meta stock. He then sold another $661 million between January 31 and February 21.

Around this time, on Jan. 20, Bloomberg noted:

… a total of 1,000 insiders sold their own stock and 128 bought shares, leaving the sell-to-buy ratio poised for the highest monthly reading in data going back to 1988.

Then, on Feb. 27, we had this headline from Fortune:

The Great Cash-Out: Jeff Bezos, Leon Black, Jamie Dimon, and the Walton family have now sold a combined $11 billion in company stock this month …

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and Apollo Global Management co-founder Leon Black sold shares in their companies for the first time ever.

The Walton family unloaded $1.5 billion of Walmart shares and Jeff Bezos sold $8.5 billion of Amazon stock.

Also of note are the stock market activities of another very rich person — or shall I say the lack of activities.

Warren Buffet of Berkshire Hathaway is holding onto a record high stockpile of cash: $167.7 billion. The Oracle of Omaha says he sees “no candidates for capital deployment.”

Of course, major corporate insider selling is by no means the only indicator investors should watch.

Market participants may also want to monitor the repetitive patterns of investor psychology — which show up as Elliott waves on price charts.

If you’d like to delve into the details of Elliott wave analysis, read Frost & Prechter’s definitive text on the subject — Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior. Here’s a quote from this Wall Street classic:

It is a thrilling experience to pinpoint a turn, and the Wave Principle is the only approach that can occasionally provide the opportunity to do so.

The ability to identify such junctures is remarkable enough, but the Wave Principle is the only method of analysis that also provides guidelines for forecasting. Many of these guidelines are specific and can occasionally yield stunningly precise results.

Get more insights into the Wave Principle by reading the entire online version of the book for free.

Just follow the link and you can have the Wall Street bestseller on your computer screen in moments: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior — get free and instant access.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Financial News Stock Market News

25 Mar

Trade Of The Week: CN50 flirts with critical resistance

By ForexTime

CN50 up over 5% YTD

Prices bullish on D1 charts

Watch out for Big China bank earnings

Key level of interest at 12250

Major breakout on horizon?

If you are seeking fresh market opportunities, then look no further!

FXTM’s CN50 index, which tracks the benchmark FTSE China A50, is flirting around key weekly resistance ahead of an event-heavy week…

That’s right, various Chinese companies listed in the CN50 are due to report their latest quarterly earnings throughout the week. This will be complemented with China’s latest industrial profits which could provide insight into the health of the world’s second largest economy.

Before we discuss what to keep an eye on this week, here are some fun facts about the CN50:

The index recently hit a fresh 2024 high.
It’s up over 5% year-to-date.
Rebounded roughly 15% from the mid-January low

CN50 bulls have drawn strength from government stimulus hopes with prices now knocking on critical resistance. Taking a quick look at the technical picture, prices are respecting a bullish channel on the daily charts.

With all the above said, here are 3 forces that could move the CN50 this week:

1) China industrial profits

The main data release from China will be the industrial profits published on Wednesday.

Profits at large Chinese industrial companies are forecast to rise 9.0% in the first two months of 2024, after falling 2.3% in December 2023.

A figure that exceeds the 9% forecast could boost sentiment towards the Chinese economy, supporting the CN50 index as a result.

Should China’s industrial profits print below expectations, the CN50 could weaken amid growing concerns over the world’s second-largest economy.

2) Big China bank earnings

Quarterly earnings from four of the biggest Chinese banks – Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China among many others will be in focus.

Note: Chinese banks have been under much stress due to consumers missing loan payments, especially in the real estate sector.

The latest quarterly earnings may provide some insight into where the property crises may be heading.

Given how banks make up just over 20% of the CN50’s weighting, the market response to the earnings could influence the index.

Note: Speaking of property crises, watch out for earnings from Country Garden and China Vanke published on Thursday. Although they are not part of the CN50 Index, they are heavyweights in the property industry with their results influencing sentiment towards the Chinese economy.

A positive set of earnings from Chinese big banks and the largest property companies could boost confidence in China’s economy, supporting the CN50 index.

Should overall earnings from banks and biggest property developers disappoint, CN50 bears may jump back into the scene.

3) Technical forces

The CN50 remains in an uptrend on the daily charts with prices trading above the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA. A breakout could be on the horizon with support found at 12000 and resistance at 12250.

A solid breakout and daily close above 12250 may encourage a move towards 12450.

Should prices secure a daily close back under 12000, this may inspire bears to target 11700.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News

23 Mar

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P 500 & EAFE

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SP500 & EAFE

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as all seven out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (45,658 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (13,261 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (9,765 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (6,774 contracts), the VIX (4,316 contracts), the Russell-Mini (5,610 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (1,171 contracts) also having positive weeks.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (97 percent) and the Russell-Mini (76 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The VIX (67 percent) and Nikkei 225 Yen (61 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (36 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (66.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (62.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (35.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (29.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (96.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (85.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (56.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (41.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (75.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (71.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (56.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (48.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (58.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (44.7 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (23 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (15 percent), the S&P500-Mini (6 percent) and the VIX (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (4.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (5.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (5.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-2.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (2.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-14.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-33.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-58.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (4.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-6.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (14.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (9.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (23.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (8.9 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -44,790 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,106 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	47.7	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	34.8	8.3
– Net Position:	-44,790	48,644	-3,854
– Gross Longs:	67,646	179,887	27,545
– Gross Shorts:	112,436	131,243	31,399
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.6	33.0	76.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-4.9	1.5

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -194,169 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 45,658 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -239,827 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	73.5	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	68.2	8.5
– Net Position:	-194,169	110,101	84,068
– Gross Longs:	258,169	1,539,140	261,988
– Gross Shorts:	452,338	1,429,039	177,920
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.8	55.1	70.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	-7.1	5.1

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 22,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,774 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,671 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.0	45.2	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.1	71.4	12.6
– Net Position:	22,445	-24,632	2,187
– Gross Longs:	35,688	42,385	13,967
– Gross Shorts:	13,243	67,017	11,780
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.8	2.5	54.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.4	-1.3	-2.6

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 11,160 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,765 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,395 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	55.5	15.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	62.5	13.2
– Net Position:	11,160	-17,526	6,366
– Gross Longs:	68,217	138,897	39,354
– Gross Shorts:	57,057	156,423	32,988
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.5	33.3	91.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.7	22.9	2.1

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -13,484 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,610 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,094 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	78.6	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	77.5	4.3
– Net Position:	-13,484	5,273	8,211
– Gross Longs:	69,077	370,396	28,373
– Gross Shorts:	82,561	365,123	20,162
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.5	23.9	56.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.6	-2.1	-11.0

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,421 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,592 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	66.5	25.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.2	68.3	15.5
– Net Position:	-1,421	-313	1,734
– Gross Longs:	1,386	11,492	4,413
– Gross Shorts:	2,807	11,805	2,679
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.4	34.0	65.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.6	-13.2	1.9

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,682 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 13,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,943 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	88.6	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.4	88.3	0.9
– Net Position:	-7,682	1,369	6,313
– Gross Longs:	38,124	390,369	10,384
– Gross Shorts:	45,806	389,000	4,071
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.5	38.5	48.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.4	-24.8	7.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

19 Mar

SG20 index: more dividends, less volatility

By ForexTime

FXTM launches brand new SG20 stock index
SG20 has highest dividend yield of all FXTM stock indices
SG20: most stable Asian stock index within FXTM universe
SG20 has strong positive correlation with spot gold
Wall Street forecasts that this stock index could rise by another 14%

FXTM’s new SG20 index may be enticing for range traders who enjoy consistent cash payouts.

What is a stock index?

Imagine a stock index being a basket of many different stocks.

The index measures the overall performance of those stocks inside that “basket”.

What does the SG20 stock index track?

FXTMs SG20 stock index tracks the performance of the MSCI Singapore Index.

Note that this MSCI Singapore index is not the same as the benchmark Straits Times index, which is maintained by the FTSE.

This MSCI Singapore index aims to capture the overall performance of 22 different large- and mid-cap stocks in Singapore.

Together, those 22 stocks make up about 85% of the entire Singaporean stock market.

3 key things to know about the SG20 index:

1) Singaporean banks are the largest members of this index

Singapore is a city-state that is also known for its status as a “safe haven”, especially for the Asian region.

As a result, its financial sector tends to attract outsized fund inflows, benefitting its banks.

No surprise then that DBS Group, OBCB Bank, and UOB, combine to make up nearly half (48.17%) of the entire SG20 index.

2) Least volatile Asian stock index within FXTM universe

Of the 6 different Asian stock indices, the SG20 index has the lowest 30-day volatility figure, as of today (Tuesday, March 19th).

SDG20: 10.9
TWN: 13.2
JP225: 15.8
CN50: 17.1
HK50: 23.6
CHINAH: 27.5

Here are more data points to showcase the SG20 index’s relative stability:

SG20 index is faring better than Singapore’s benchmark Straits Times index

The SG20 index is up 1.25% so far in 2024.

Compare that to Singapore’s benchmark stock index (FTSE Straits Times index), which has dropped by by more than 2% so far in 2024.

While the performance of Singaporean stocks are in stark contrast to the many stock indices around the world that have printed fresh record highs this year …

SG20 index appears to putting in a relatively steady shift so far this year.

SG20 index has a strong correlation with gold

To buffer the notion of Singapore as a “safe haven”, this SG20 index tends to mirror the performance of another famed “safe haven” asset: gold.

Over any given 5-day period from the past 20 years, both XAUUSD (gold) and this SG20 index have moved in the same direction 51% of the time (positive correlation.

NOTE: According to Bloomberg data, gold and SG20 have a positive correlation of 0.51, over a rolling 5-day period from the past 20 years. A number of 0.5 or higher indicates a strong correlation.

3) SG20 has highest dividend yield of all FXTM Stock Indices

Over the past 12 months, this SG20 index has paid out a dividend yield of 4.7% (based on current prices).

That’s significantly higher than the dividend yields currently offered by other popular stock indices (based on current prices):

UK100: 4%
EU50: 2.9%
JP225: 1.6%
US500: 1.4%
NAS100: 0.8%

But wait, there’s more!

Over the next 12 months, Wall Street analysts forecast that members of the SG20 index will pay out EVEN MORE dividends.

This is expected to bring the forward 12-month yield up to 4.9%.

What is a “dividend yield”?

Dividend yield is a % number representing how much money an investor gets for buying and holding an asset.

The higher the yield, the more dividends the investor receives, as a ratio of what was originally invested.

Dividends are cash rewards that are given by companies (in this case, companies that are included in the SG20 index) to its shareholders.

Hence, holders of assets linked to the SG20 index, such as Exchange-Traded Funds (ETF) or even Contracts for Differences (CFD), often are entitled to similar dividends as well.

Where’s SG20 headed next?

Over the next 12 months, Wall Street analysts predict this SG20 index could return to the 330 mark.

From current prices, this implies about 14% in potential gains.

For proper context, a number around 330 would only restore the SG20 index to levels not seen since 2022.

That would still pale in comparison to the SG20 index’s all-time intraday high of 481.23 posted 10th October 2007, before the Global Financial Crisis.

SG20 bulls (those hoping that prices will rise) will be hoping that the Asian “safe haven” economy can continue registering steady growth, benefitting the city-state’s financial sector along the way.

If such an outlook proves true, then …

Traders and investors may yet enjoy more gains amid less-volatile prices, while collecting healthy dividends along the way.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News

16 Mar

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by Russell & Nikkei 225

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell & Nikkei 225

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly higher overall this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Russell-Mini (3,729 contracts) with the Nikkei 225 (1,604 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (1,085 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (760 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-35,387 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-6,688 contracts) and the VIX (-3,151 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Markets Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (86 percent) and the Russell-Mini (72 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The VIX (62 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (29 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently while the next lowest strength score is the Nasdaq-Mini (41 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (62.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (65.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (29.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (34.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (85.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (84.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (41.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (40.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (71.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (68.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (48.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (36.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (44.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (51.7 percent)

Nikkei 225 & MSCI EAFE-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nikkei 225 (9 percent) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the stock markets.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-59 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the DowJones-Mini (-14 percent) coming in as the next lowest market in trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (5.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (3.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-2.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-2.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-14.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-6.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-58.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-50.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-6.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-11.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (9.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-3.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (8.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (15.2 percent)