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Archive for Stock Market News – Page 16

13 Jan

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by S&P500 & Russell

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & Russell-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini with a strong weekly gain by 97,039 contracts. Coming in next was the Russell-Mini (21,933 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (7,603 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (4,537 contracts), the VIX (823 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (762 contracts) also recording positive weekly gains.

The only market with a drop in speculator bets was the Nasdaq-Mini with a decline by -2,291 contracts on the week.

Stock Markets – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (100 percent) and the Russell-Mini (100 percent) lead the stock markets this week at their top levels of the past three years. The Nasdaq-Mini (96 percent) and VIX (80 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (36 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently with the next lowest strength score being the S&P500-Mini (47 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (79.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (79.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (47.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (32.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (100.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (92.6 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (95.6 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (99.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (100.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (84.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (47.7 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (42.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (36.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (28.4 percent)

 

DowJones-Mini & Russell-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (80 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Russell-Mini (54 percent), the Nasdaq-Mini (45 percent) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (34 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The S&P500-Mini (-8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei USD (-2 percent) coming in as the next market with a lower trend score.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (2.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (1.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-7.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-20.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (79.6 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (88.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (45.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (52.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (54.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (40.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (-2.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-8.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (34.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (22.3 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week was a net position of -44,169 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 823 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,992 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.648.37.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.133.99.3
– Net Position:-44,16951,245-7,076
– Gross Longs:69,775171,52625,924
– Gross Shorts:113,944120,28133,000
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.821.260.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.31.7-30.8

 

S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -117,049 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 97,039 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -214,088 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.372.512.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.671.88.0
– Net Position:-117,04915,495101,554
– Gross Longs:272,2471,602,234278,896
– Gross Shorts:389,2961,586,739177,342
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.0 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.342.077.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.8-0.923.1

 

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,079 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,537 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,542 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.847.813.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.572.412.5
– Net Position:24,079-25,4331,354
– Gross Longs:36,98749,41914,256
– Gross Shorts:12,90874,85212,902
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.7 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.050.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:79.6-80.730.1

 

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 36,776 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,291 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,067 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.954.215.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.769.613.0
– Net Position:36,776-42,6015,825
– Gross Longs:83,021150,59142,040
– Gross Shorts:46,245193,19236,215
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.8 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):95.65.293.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:45.4-35.06.0

 

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 21,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 21,933 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -921 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.074.36.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.880.73.8
– Net Position:21,012-31,97610,964
– Gross Longs:94,710370,64230,111
– Gross Shorts:73,698402,61819,147
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.065.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:54.3-53.925.7

 

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 762 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.764.423.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.853.317.9
– Net Position:-2,6581,724934
– Gross Longs:1,8119,9913,702
– Gross Shorts:4,4698,2672,768
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.746.452.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.11.31.3

 

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -29,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,729 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.189.03.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.983.62.2
– Net Position:-29,12622,9776,149
– Gross Longs:30,146379,37315,395
– Gross Shorts:59,272356,3969,246
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.360.647.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:34.1-35.16.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News
05 Jan

Week Ahead: SPX500_m bulls down but not out

By ForexTime 

  • SPX500_m set for first weekly loss since late-October
  • US CPI & major bank earnings could move index
  • SPX500_m under pressure on daily charts
  • However, prices still above 50, 100 and 200-day SMA
  • Key levels of interest at 4798, 4700 and 4640

It’s been a rough start to the new year for US equities with the SPX500_m heading for its first weekly loss since late October.

The index could see heightened volatility this afternoon thanks to the key US jobs report (Friday 5th January). But even as anticipation mounts, traders are bracing for more action in the week ahead.

All eyes will be on the incoming US inflation data and earnings announcements by major US banks which could rock the SPX500_m over the coming week.

Monday, 8th January

  • EUR: Eurozone consumer confidence, retail sales, Germany factory orders
  • USD: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech

Tuesday, 9th January

  • CNH: China money supply, new yuan loans
  • AUD: Australia retail sales, building approvals
  • EUR: Eurozone unemployment, Germany industrial production
  • JPY: Japan Tokyo CPI, household spending
  • USD: US trade

Wednesday, 10th January

  • USD: New York Fed President John Williams speech
  • Bitcoin: Deadline for SEC to vote on Bitcoin ETF applications

Thursday, 11th January

  • AUD: Australia trade balance
  • NZD: New Zealand building permits, home sales
  • USD: US December CPI, initial jobless claims

Friday, 12th January

  • CNH: China CPI, PPI, trade
  • GBP: UK industrial production
  • USD: US PPI, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speech
  • SPX500_m: Bank of America, BlackRock, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo results

It will be wise to keep an eye on the December US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data published on Thursday, January 11th.

Markets are forecasting: 

  • CPI year-on-year (December 2023 vs. December 2022) to rise 3.3% from 3.1% in the prior month.
  • Core CPI year-on-year to cool 3.8% from 4.0% in the prior month.
  • CPI month-on-month (December 2023 vs November 2023) to rise 0.2% from 0.1% in the prior month.
  • Core CPI month-on-month to cool 0.2% from 0.3% in the prior month.

Headline inflation is expected to have ticked higher due to rising energy prices, while the annual core inflation is seen cooling to 3.8% – its lowest in over two years.

Will US CPI help SPX500_m bulls or bears?

Stronger-than-expected US economic data this week has dampened bets around the Fed cutting rates as soon as March.

This dealt a blow to the S&P 500 which has a bunch of tech stocks that remain sensitive to US monetary policy expectations. When considering how tech stocks account for roughly 28% of the index’s value, the incoming US inflation report next week could spark fresh volatility.

  • The SPX500_m could extend losses if the inflation numbers print above market forecasts.
  • Should the US CPI report show evidence of cooling prices, this could push the SPX500_m higher.

US earnings season in focus

Fourth quarter earnings season kicks off on Friday 12th January, led by the biggest US banks.

Heavyweights such as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citigroup and BlackRock will be under the spotlight. Their earnings report will be closely scrutinized by investors for fresh insight into the health of US banks which can be used to assess the health of the US economy.

Given how financial stocks account for just over 13% of the S&P 500, the bank earnings could move the index on Friday.

  • SPX500­_m bulls may be inspired If bank earnings exceed forecasts.
  • If earnings disappoint, this could pull the SPX500_m lower.

Watch out for the technicals…

The SPX500_m is under pressure on the daily charts with the recent break below the 4700 support helping bears.

However, the technical still favour bulls with prices trading above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA while the MACD trades above zero.

  • Sustained weakness below 4700, may open a path towards 4640, 4600 and the 50-day SMA.
  • Should prices push back above 4700, this could trigger an incline back to the 2023 high.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News
04 Jan

NQ100_m: Hung over as it awaits NFP

By ForexTime 

  • NQ100_m continues to pullback from all-time highs
  • The 161.8 golden Fib ratio is the nearest term support
  • Prices trading below 21-day EMA
  • Latest selloff confirms negative RSI divergence
  • US jobs data could inject more volatility

The NQ100_m has closed lower for two consecutive days in the New Year, unable to shake off a hangover after reaching all-time highs.

Some of this pullback has been attributed to a decline in Apple stocks and profit-taking in the stock market.

Given how key US employment data expected to inject volatility into the markets over the next couple of days, investors will be watching to see if the data confirms the Fed’s current stance on possible rate cuts in 2024.

Markets predict that 171,000 new jobs were added to the US economy in December. If so, this will be lower than the 199k created in the previous month. The unemployment rate is expected to tick higher to 3.8% from 3.7% while average hourly earnings are forecast to slip 0.3% MoM compared to 0.4% in November. Should the report meet or print below expectations, this may reinforce bets around the Fed cutting interest rates as soon as March 2024.

Technically speaking…

Wednesday’s close saw the NQ100_m close below its 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for the first time since going above it in early November last year.

However, the index is above its 50-day EMA, indicating a bullish sentiment. This decline in NQ100_m confirms the negative divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI).

This negative divergence saw the RSI decline to the 50-midway point where it is at the time of writing.

The negative divergence can be seen where NQ100_m made a new high on the 28th of December, but the RSI failed to make a new high itself.

If the Index continues to decline, it will encounter the following possible support zones.

  • 16325.2: the 161.8 golden Fibonacci ratio (with the Fibonacci retracement drawn from December 20th’s low to December 28th’s high)

  • 16062.5: the 50-day Exponential Moving Average

  • 15912.3: the 261.8 Fibonacci Retracement level

A return of bullish momentum however could be confirmed with a close above 16496.7- its 21-dayEMA- where bulls (those looking to see the index rally further) will be looking to see NQ100-m, reclaim its all-time highs.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News
21 Dec

Jap225_m squeezed into “symmetrical triangle”

By ForexTime

  • Japan’s benchmark stock index pares post-BoJ gains
  • This index could be en route to “5th distinct touch”
  • Friday’s Japan’s CPI release may be next volatility trigger

 

Jap225_m, has not been immune from the pullback seen across global stocks over the past 24 hours.

On the heels of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintaining its benchmark rate at minus 0.1% on Tuesday, while offering no guidance on a rate hike in 2024.

Such policy signals, or the lack thereof, prompted the Japanese stock index to rally over 1000 points on the back of a weaker Yen.

NOTE: The Jap225 index has an inverse relationship with the Yen, i.e. when one strengthens the other weakens.

 

However, the Jap225_m then found resistance on a downward sloping trendline, when connecting highs of November 20th, 24th and December 19th, 2023.

As at the time writing, the daily candlesticks on the Jap225_m are finding support on its 21-day simple moving average which coincides with the 38.2 Fibonacci level, at 33180.

 

From a fundamentals perspective …

Heads up, Japan’s national CPI is due this Friday (Dec 22nd).

Economists are forecasting a 2.8% year-on-year rise (November 2023 vs November 2022).

That 2.8% figure would be slightly lower than October’s 3.3% year-on-year number, but still above the BoJ’s 2% target.

 

Jap225_m adhering to Bulkowski’s “symmetrical triangle” pattern

According to Thomas Bulkowski, in his book, “The Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns”:

“There should be at least five distinct touches of the two trendlines in a symmetrical triangle,… and each time making lower highs and higher lows.”

A 5th distinct touch may mean that Jap225_mmay break below the following potential support levels en route to 32333:

  • 33180: the 38.2 Fibonacci level which coincides with the 21-day SMA
  • 32969: the 50.0 Fibonacci level
  • 32758: the 61.8 Fibonacci level
  • 32570: the 50-day SMA.

 

However, if Japan’s CPI disappoints markets, potential resistance areas for the Jap225_m could also reveal themselves at

  • 33442: the 23.6 Fibonacci level
  • 33627: the upper bound trendline of the symmetrical pattern

The Japanese index bulls (those hoping prices will move higher) will be looking for Jap225_m’s upward momentum to continue and print new multi-decade highs.

For context, that intraday high on 16th June 2023, when the Jap225_m briefly broke above the 34,000 mark, was the highest level since 1990.

 

Finally, volume can be seen decreasing through the formation of the symmetrical pattern.

Increasing volumes around potential breakouts of this symmetrical pattern may be a pointer as to the next impulse move in the index.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News
19 Dec

Why empathy constitutes the ultimate leadership skill

By Julia Milner, EDHEC Business School 

When asked what traits constitute a good leader, you may be tempted to list traditional qualities such as rationality, cool-headedness, and overall, an ability to detach oneself from one’s emotions. However, research has shown that the ability to feel empathy toward one’s colleagues is in fact the most critical leadership skills, and much-overlooked. Empathy is on record for boosting employees’ ability to innovate, engage with the task at hand, balance work and life demands, and not least, motivate them to stay within the company.

So, what stands in the way of more of the good stuff spreading across companies’ higher echelons?

Thinking errors and empathy

For the past decade, I have devoted my career to studying how leaders learn coaching skills, working with young professionals and experienced executives as well as consulting with organisations on leadership development. Empathy was one of the nine core skills we looked into in our latest paper on effective leadership.

Managers, it turns out, rated expressing empathy as the most challenging communication skills, above asking questions and providing feedback.

The trend appears to be linked to a number of old-school thinking errors, such as:

  • All or nothing approach: “If I show a little empathy then I will have crying employees in front of me.”
  • Heavens-reward fallacy: “If I give my empathy, then I expect to be rewarded for it, so the other person owes me something and if they don’t give it back this proves I’m wasting my time.”
  • Implicit stereotype: “Leaders who show empathy are weak, so I better appear strong and tough.”

In truth, a strong leader is an empathic one. We are not weak because we care about others.

Dans un contexte d’augmentation des risques psychosociaux, ignorer les émotions au travail n’aide pas…
Melissa Hogan/Wikimedia commons, CC BY-SA

The challenge of remote working

Another perceived obstacle to empathy has been the culture of remote working. CEOs noted that virtual interactions, be them through e-meetings or e-mails, robbed them of in-person communication cues, such as body language.

However, workers on the receiving end did not appear to believe that remote working inherently privileged unsympathetic behaviour. In fact, some employees preferred e-mails on the basis that they gave them time to think and not react immediately, and sometimes impulsively.

Executives blaming remote working for their behaviour might therefore wish to reflect upon whether cognitive bias or stereotypes listed above, rather than working from home, might be impeding them from tapping into empathy.

Moreover, there are steps that can be taken to translate emotions to the virtual world. Remember: the important thing is not what you say, but how you say it. One of the things we’ve observed is that on video calls, participants often think that a screen means they can forget their own facial expressions. Conversely, some managers are so focused on how they present themselves that they stare at their own image and lose focus on listening.

It’s all about finding the right balance and getting used to showing empathy virtually. Managers should not forget their voice either, particularly during video calls, because the voice becomes very important when participants are doing several things at once, listening without necessarily looking at you all the time. In other words, signs of agitation or stress in the voice, or leaving little room for questions, will send signals of a lack of empathy.

Strengthen the empathy muscle

To get around these obstacles, here are a few tips on how to start showing empathy:

  • In every interaction, always remember to listen, ask questions and signal that show you’ve understood the messages – without falling into artificial communication. This will strengthen your empathy “muscle” through training and experience.
  • Record a video during daily interactions. Even if it’s initially strange to see ourselves on video or to analyse the “how” of our communication, these debriefing sessions can help identify certain mistakes.
  • Try to find someone who is known for their empathy. Observe and ask questions to improve.

Ignoring emotions at work doesn’t help to foster a productive environment. It’s high time we recognised empathy as the essential leadership skill that it is.The Conversation

Empathy at work: How to do it in four practical steps (Julien Milner).

About the Author:

Julia Milner, Professeure de leadership, EDHEC Business School

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Opinions Stock Market News
17 Dec

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led this week by VIX & Russell-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by the VIX & Russell-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (10,461 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (4,800 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (3,143 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-17,822 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-4,851 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (-627 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (-298 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend
Dec-12-2023
OI
OI-Index
Spec-Net
Spec-Index
Com-Net
COM-Index
Smalls-Net
Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini2,670,45461-65,0835521,4954343,58855
VIX427,22986-46,3167845,7241859299
Nasdaq-Mini337,2361008,10451-10,817312,71390
DowJones-Mini112,076853,4518819929-3,65026
Nikkei 225 Yen40,280179,71464-3,8811-5,83389
Nikkei 22514,75628-2,317501,8074751045

 

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (88 percent) and the VIX (78 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 Yen (64 percent) and S&P500-Mini (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores and above a 50 percent score.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (9 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (78.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (71.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (55.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (57.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (87.6 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (80.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (51.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (51.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (45.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (42.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (50.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (54.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (9.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (14.1 percent)

 

DowJones-Mini & Nikkei 225 Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (85 percent) overwhelmingly leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (2 percent) is  the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-22 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the S&P500-Mini (-10 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-21.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (-23.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-10.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-8.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (85.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (78.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (2.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (8.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-7.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-7.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (-3.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (3.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-9.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-19.1 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -46,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,461 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,777 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.847.67.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.736.97.2
– Net Position:-46,31645,724592
– Gross Longs:97,484203,21531,240
– Gross Shorts:143,800157,49130,648
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.317.699.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.717.627.2

 

S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -65,083 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -17,822 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,261 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.670.711.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.169.99.8
– Net Position:-65,08321,49543,588
– Gross Longs:257,5331,888,239306,616
– Gross Shorts:322,6161,866,744263,028
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.042.954.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.47.75.5

 

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 3,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 308 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.258.712.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.158.516.0
– Net Position:3,451199-3,650
– Gross Longs:25,96865,77914,302
– Gross Shorts:22,51765,58017,952
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 11.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.628.526.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:85.5-68.24.2

 

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 8,104 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -298 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,402 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.262.913.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.866.112.4
– Net Position:8,104-10,8172,713
– Gross Longs:71,616212,00144,538
– Gross Shorts:63,512222,81841,825
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.0 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.430.989.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.1-5.48.2

 

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -50,629 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,800 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,429 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.280.46.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.273.65.0
– Net Position:-50,62943,2047,425
– Gross Longs:65,483513,99139,542
– Gross Shorts:116,112470,78732,117
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.353.249.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.31.327.4

 

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -627 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.966.121.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.653.817.5
– Net Position:-2,3171,807510
– Gross Longs:1,9109,7483,098
– Gross Shorts:4,2277,9412,588
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.146.945.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.14.4-4.6

 

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -54,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,851 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,858 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.092.02.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.081.01.2
– Net Position:-54,70950,5644,145
– Gross Longs:22,631419,8089,840
– Gross Shorts:77,340369,2445,695
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.1 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.389.537.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.15.716.5

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News
13 Dec

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: NQ100_m waits on Fed rate decision

By ForexTime 

  • NQ100_m hits fresh 2023 high yesterday
  • Index could be rocked by looming Fed decision
  • Bulls in control but RSI overbought on D1 chart
  • Levels of interest at 16770.6, 16100 & 15800

The NQ100_m jumped to a fresh 2023 high in the previous session after signs of slowing inflation supported hopes around the Fed cutting interest rates next year.

November’s inflation report painted a mixed picture with annual consumer prices slipping to 3.1%, down from 3.2% in October. The annual core figure, which strips out volatile energy and food prices rose by 4% in line with the prior month. However, the monthly core figure rose 0.3%, slightly faster than 0.2% in the previous month.

While traders are still pricing in a 25-basis point cut by May 2024, this could be influenced by the Fed decision later today.

As highlighted in our week ahead report, the central bank is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, so focus will be on the updated economic projections, “dot plot” and Powell’s press conference.

Whatever the outcome of the Fed meeting, it could rock the NQ100_m which is filled with tech stocks that remain sensitive to interest rates.

Redirecting our attention back to the technicals…

The NQ100_m is respecting a bullish channel on the weekly charts with the next key level at the all-time high of 16770.6 created back in November 2021.

It is a similar story on the daily charts with bulls clearly in a position of power. There have been consistently higher highs and higher lows while prices are trading well above the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trading above 70, signalling that prices are heavily overbought, suggesting a potential throwback down the road.

  • Should 16100 prove to be reliable support, this may provide a foundation for bulls to charge towards 16770.6

  • A move back below 16100 could trigger a selloff towards 15800 and 15540.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News
12 Dec

AI’s impact on 3 key industries will pique investors’ interest in 2024

By George Prior 

Investors should strategically position their portfolios in 2024 to capitalize on the opportunities offered by AI for certain sectors, says the CEO and founder of one of the world’s largest financial advisory and asset management organizations.

deVere Group’s Nigel Green is speaking out after what has been a pivotal year in the AI space, characterized by major company moves from tech titans, pioneering initiatives, groundbreaking product launches, huge investments and strategic acquisitions.

He says: “AI stands at the forefront of technological innovation, poised to catalyze a profound transformation across industries. The potential for a significant boost in productivity is particularly evident in sectors such as financials, airlines, and healthcare.

“The financial industry is experiencing a paradigm shift with the integration of AI technologies. Machine learning algorithms, natural language processing, and predictive analytics are revolutionising processes, from risk management to customer service.

“AI-driven insights enable financial institutions to make data-driven decisions, enhance fraud detection, and streamline operations. Investors should consider seizing potential opportunities in this sector by looking at investments in fintech companies and financial institutions embracing AI to gain a competitive edge.

He continues: “AI-powered algorithms can analyze vast datasets and execute trades with speed and precision, providing a potential boost to investment returns – as such, investors could consider exposure to funds or companies specializing in algorithmic trading strategies.

“Also, as AI enhances risk assessment by analyzing complex patterns and identifying potential threats, investors may find opportunities in companies developing innovative risk management solutions for financial institutions.”

The aviation industry is ripe for AI-driven productivity enhancements, from optimizing flight routes to enhancing customer experience. AI’s potential impact on airlines extends to fuel efficiency, predictive maintenance, and personalised services.

Algorithms can analyse historical data, weather patterns, and other variables to optimize flight routes, reducing fuel consumption and operational costs. In addition, chatbots and virtual assistants powered by AI can streamline customer interactions, providing real-time support and personalized services.

“Savvy investors are likely to explore opportunities in airlines adopting AI for route optimization; and companies investing in AI-driven customer service solutions may present attractive investment opportunities.”

Moving onto healthcare, AI is becoming a transformative force, contributing to improved diagnostics, personalized treatment plans, and operational efficiencies. As the industry embraces AI-driven innovations, investors can position their portfolios to benefit from the growth potential.

AI algorithms can analyze medical images and data to enhance diagnostic accuracy. It can also accelerate the drug discovery process by studying biological data and identifying potential drug candidates.

“Companies developing AI-powered diagnostic tools and technologies may present investment opportunities in the healthcare sector, and investors may consider pharma companies leveraging AI for drug development.”

The deVere CEO says there are three main reasons why investors should position their portfolios accordingly.

First, innovation potential. “Industries integrating AI are likely to experience unprecedented innovation, creating opportunities for investors to capitalise on the growth of forward-thinking companies at the forefront of technological advancement.

Second, competitive advantage: “Companies embracing AI technologies gain a competitive edge by improving efficiency, reducing costs, and enhancing decision-making processes. Investors positioning their portfolios in such companies could benefit from their ability to outperform industry peers.”

Third long-term growth: “AI’s transformative impact is not a fleeting trend; it represents a long-term paradigm shift. As such, investors with a strategic focus on AI-driven sectors could position their portfolios for sustained growth over the coming years.

Nigel Green concludes: “Artificial Intelligence’s potential to boost productivity in industries like financials, airlines, and healthcare is a compelling narrative for investors.

“By strategically positioning portfolios to capture opportunities in companies at the forefront of AI adoption, investors can align themselves with the transformative forces shaping the future of these industries.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

 

Opinions Stock Market News
11 Dec

Trade Of The Week: SPX500_m gearing up for event heavy week

By ForexTime 

  • SPX500_m hits new 2023 high last Friday
  • Stock index set to be injected with fresh volatility
  • Keep eye on US CPI and Fed decision
  • SPX500_m bullish on D1 chart but RSI signals overbought
  • Key levels of interest at 4640, 4600 and 4545

After hitting a new 2023 high last Friday, the SPX500_m could be injected with fresh volatility this week due to a series of high-risk events.

US equity bulls remain in the driver’s seat with the SPX500_m bagging its sixth week of gains after the strong US jobs data boosted hopes around the US economy avoiding a recession. The stock Index has also drawn strength from growing bets over the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next year amid slowing inflation.

Taking a brief peek at the technicals, prices are trending higher on the daily charts. Despite the recent breakout above 4600, it may be worth keeping an eye on the range with support found at 4545.

The next few days could be wild for the SPX500_m and here are 3 reasons why:

       1. US data dump

It’s a big week for the US economy thanks to top-tier economic reports including the highly anticipated US CPI report on Tuesday.

This crucial inflation report along with the latest retail sales and industrial production among others could influence bets around what the Fed will do beyond 2023. As highlighted in our week ahead report, headline inflation is expected to have cooled further due to falling energy prices, while the annual core inflation to remain unchanged.

Given how the S&P 500 Index has a handful of tech stocks that remain sensitive to interest rate expectations, the incoming US inflation figures have the ability to rock the index.

  • The SPX500_m could pull away from the 2023 high if the inflation report exceeds market forecasts.
  • Should the inflation numbers print below expectations, this could push the index higher as Fed rate cut bets jump.

       2. Fed rate decision

Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday, so the focus falls on the updated economic projections and dot plots for fresh clarity on its next move.

  • The SPX500_m could push higher if the doves dominate the scene with the Fed signalling cuts in 2024.
  • If the Fed pushes back hopes for rate cuts and reiterates the higher for longer mantra, this may pull the SPX500_m lower.

Note: Looking beyond US data and the Fed decision, it may be worth keeping an eye on the “Triple witching”. 

US markets may see a sudden jump in volumes on Friday as Futures and Options contracts on Stocks and Indices expire in what is called “Triple witching”. This happens once a quarter and has the potential to cause some market volatility.

       3. Technical forces

Regarding the technical picture, prices are firmly bullish on the daily charts. There have been consistently higher highs and higher lows while prices are trading above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains around 70 suggesting that prices are heavily overbought. A technical throwback could be on the table before the index pushes higher.

  • Should prices stay above the 4600 level, this may open a path towards the 4640 level – the highest level touched in March 2022.
  • Sustained below 4600 may trigger a selloff back towards 4525
  • Should 4525 prove to be unreliable support, a decline back towards 4500 and 4470 could be on the cards.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News
10 Dec

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by DowJones & S&P500 Minis

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by DowJones-Mini & S&P500-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the DowJones-Mini (24,916 contracts) with the S&P500-Mini (17,766 contracts) the MSCI EAFE-Mini (12,174 contracts), the Nikkei 225 Yen (2,394 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (1,124 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (670 contracts) and the Russell-Mini (64 contracts),also showing positive weeks.

The only market with a decline in the speculator bets this week was the VIX (-9,241 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend
Dec-05-2023
OI
OI-Index
Spec-Net
Spec-Index
Com-Net
COM-Index
Smalls-Net
Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini2,314,40031-47,26158-954047,35656
VIX406,71175-56,7777157,87126-1,09491
Nasdaq-Mini277,746618,40252-13,580275,17885
DowJones-Mini94,87055308812,83333-3,14129
Nikkei 225 Yen65,6776517,459882,06117-19,52044
Nikkei 22519,91460-1,690551,0364265439

 

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (81 percent) leads the stock markets this week. The VIX (71 percent) and S&P500-Mini (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (14 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (71.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (77.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (57.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (55.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (80.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (26.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (51.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (50.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (42.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (42.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (54.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (49.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (14.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (2.1 percent)

 

DowJones-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (78 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The  Nasdaq-Mini (9 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-19 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-23.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (-16.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-8.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-0.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (78.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (22.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (8.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-10.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-7.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-6.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (3.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-0.7 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-19.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-33.3 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -56,777 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,241 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,536 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.649.96.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.635.77.1
– Net Position:-56,77757,871-1,094
– Gross Longs:92,021202,88927,743
– Gross Shorts:148,798145,01828,837
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.325.590.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.620.717.2

 

S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -47,261 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 17,766 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,027 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.473.711.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.573.79.3
– Net Position:-47,261-9547,356
– Gross Longs:264,2091,706,068261,634
– Gross Shorts:311,4701,706,163214,278
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.739.956.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.64.89.0

 

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 308 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 24,916 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,608 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.756.413.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.353.417.3
– Net Position:3082,833-3,141
– Gross Longs:26,25353,46513,228
– Gross Shorts:25,94550,63216,369
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.1 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):80.832.928.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:78.4-62.12.7

 

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 8,402 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,124 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,278 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.156.014.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.160.813.0
– Net Position:8,402-13,5805,178
– Gross Longs:75,200155,41841,346
– Gross Shorts:66,798168,99836,168
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.927.485.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.8-11.88.9

 

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -55,429 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 64 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,493 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.481.84.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.372.64.1
– Net Position:-55,42950,9004,529
– Gross Longs:69,069455,71027,535
– Gross Shorts:124,498404,81023,006
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.257.740.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.43.715.1

 

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 670 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,360 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.268.219.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.763.016.6
– Net Position:-1,6901,036654
– Gross Longs:2,02913,5873,953
– Gross Shorts:3,71912,5513,299
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.542.239.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.12.1-10.6

 

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -49,858 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,174 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,032 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.591.02.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.879.91.7
– Net Position:-49,85844,9414,917
– Gross Longs:22,286369,01511,661
– Gross Shorts:72,144324,0746,744
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.1 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.184.041.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.115.715.5

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

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