Archive for Soft Commodities – Page 4

20 Apr

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Soybean Meal & Lean Hogs

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Meal & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Meal (9,230 contracts) with Lean Hogs (4,276 contracts) and Coffee (2,508 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-43,130 contracts), Soybean Oil (-23,914 contracts), Cotton (-20,347 contracts), Corn (-14,666 contracts), Soybeans (-13,416 contracts), Wheat (-10,500 contracts), Live Cattle (-5,960 contracts) and with Cocoa (-1,073 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Lean Hogs

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (100 percent) and Lean Hogs (76 percent) lead the softs markets this week.

On the downside, Soybeans (6 percent), Corn (8 percent), Soybean Oil (9 percent) and Sugar (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (7.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (9.5 percent)
Sugar (13.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (28.8 percent)
Coffee (100.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (97.6 percent)
Soybeans (5.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (8.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (9.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (24.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (22.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (18.4 percent)
Live Cattle (25.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (31.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (76.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (72.6 percent)
Cotton (48.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (63.4 percent)
Cocoa (44.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (45.6 percent)
Wheat (23.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (31.1 percent)

Coffee & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (22 percent) and Soybean Meal (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (19 percent), Soybean Oil (9 percent) and Soybeans (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cotton (-37 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-28 percent), Wheat (-13 percent) and Cocoa (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (3.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (5.3 percent)
Sugar (-7.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.9 percent)
Coffee (22.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (21.3 percent)
Soybeans (5.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (7.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (9.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (18.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (19.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (18.4 percent)
Live Cattle (-27.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-18.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (18.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (18.8 percent)
Cotton (-36.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-22.3 percent)
Cocoa (-9.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-6.4 percent)
Wheat (-12.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-10.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -204,857 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -190,191 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.345.310.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.831.210.9
– Net Position:-204,857214,170-9,313
– Gross Longs:278,571688,963157,042
– Gross Shorts:483,428474,793166,355
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.691.295.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.2-3.3-1.0

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 62,564 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -43,130 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 105,694 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.955.38.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.261.510.2
– Net Position:62,564-50,279-12,285
– Gross Longs:186,059448,73270,228
– Gross Shorts:123,495499,01182,513
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.294.00.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.09.3-14.2

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 76,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,563 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.535.63.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.168.12.5
– Net Position:76,071-78,8352,764
– Gross Longs:98,29286,5828,934
– Gross Shorts:22,221165,4176,170
– Long to Short Ratio:4.4 to 10.5 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.051.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:22.0-22.811.9

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -171,893 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,416 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -158,477 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.958.06.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.737.37.5
– Net Position:-171,893179,718-7,825
– Gross Longs:94,418503,03256,980
– Gross Shorts:266,311323,31464,805
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.794.086.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.7-6.05.4

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -34,546 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -23,914 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,632 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.450.24.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.244.74.7
– Net Position:-34,54633,3271,219
– Gross Longs:116,442300,90329,257
– Gross Shorts:150,988267,57628,038
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.291.018.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.2-9.06.5

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,832 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,230 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,062 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.847.810.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.648.36.8
– Net Position:-12,832-2,35215,184
– Gross Longs:102,248223,84346,819
– Gross Shorts:115,080226,19531,635
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.176.823.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.1-19.17.0

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 43,011 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,960 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,971 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.037.49.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.250.612.4
– Net Position:43,011-35,975-7,036
– Gross Longs:95,527102,06226,945
– Gross Shorts:52,516138,03733,981
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.378.752.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-27.934.3-11.8

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 56,491 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,276 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,215 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.332.78.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.449.210.6
– Net Position:56,491-49,252-7,239
– Gross Longs:120,48597,81824,451
– Gross Shorts:63,994147,07031,690
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.124.250.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.6-18.7-9.2

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 52,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -20,347 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,676 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.838.07.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.165.45.4
– Net Position:52,329-55,9433,614
– Gross Longs:83,15177,26914,522
– Gross Shorts:30,822133,21210,908
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.6 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.152.437.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-36.736.6-31.7

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 33,835 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,073 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,908 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.733.78.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.559.14.1
– Net Position:33,835-40,4946,659
– Gross Longs:55,31053,72513,258
– Gross Shorts:21,47594,2196,599
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.6 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.551.468.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.77.814.8

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -62,897 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,500 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,397 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.436.08.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.420.37.8
– Net Position:-62,89761,5861,311
– Gross Longs:118,774141,02731,794
– Gross Shorts:181,67179,44130,483
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.8 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.872.571.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.610.716.0

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
16 Apr

New FXTM commodity hits all-time high!

By ForexTime 

  • FXTM launches 10 new commodities
  • Cocoa hits fresh record high
  • Biggest gainer YTD in FXTM’s commodity universe
  • Prices up over 150% since the start of 2024
  • Firmly bullish on H4/H1 timeframe

This week, FXTM launched 10 new commodities!

This now brings FXTM’s tally to 13 different commodities to trade from.

And Cocoa has certainly hijacked our attention, jumping to a fresh all-time high on Monday.

The commodity posted its highest-ever intraday price at $11345.56 (Monday, 15th April)!

Note: Cocoa is priced per metric ton (MT)

Before we take a deep dive into why Cocoa prices are skyrocketing, let’s cover some basics:

What is Cocoa?

Cocoa is refined from the seeds of a cacao tree, which is a key ingredient in chocolate production.

What does FXTM’s Cocoa track?

FXTM’s Cocoa tracks the ICE US Cocoa futures which is the world benchmark for the global cocoa market.

The lowdown…

Cocoa prices have seen extraordinary gains in recent months!

The commodity is up over 150% year-to-date as the industry faces a perfect storm.

A combination of bad weather, crop disease, and rising freight costs have led to sudden and aggressive increases in the price of Cocoa.

The bigger picture

Did you know the world’s two biggest producers of cocoa beans are based in West Africa?

The Ivory Coast and Ghana are the big boys when it comes to production, accounting for more than 50% of the world’s cocoa.

A weather phenomenon known as El Nino has been causing drier weather for these countries, negatively impacting harvest yields as a result.

It does not end here

Meanwhile, the world’s appetite for chocolate remains robust!

According to the International Cocoa Organization’s latest forecast for the 2023/2024 cocoa year, demand is set to outstrip supply by more than 300,000 tonnes.

What does this mean?

This could mean more gains for cocoa if demand continues to exceed supply which is anticipated to decline by almost 11% this year.

How about the technicals?

Prices are firmly bullish on the daily charts with the path of least resistance pointing north.

However, a technical throwback could be in the works before bulls jump back into the scene.

Key support levels can be found at $10717, 10485 and the psychological $10000.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Soft Commodities
13 Apr

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybean Meal & Lean Hogs

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Meal & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Meal (16,375 contracts) with Lean Hogs (9,080 contracts), Wheat (7,860 contracts), Coffee (6,081 contracts) and Cocoa (1,237 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Cotton (-16,089 contracts), Sugar (-11,767 contracts), Live Cattle (-11,085 contracts), Corn (-8,855 contracts), Soybean Oil (-6,775 contracts) and Soybeans (-437 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Lean Hogs

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (100 percent) and Lean Hogs (73 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Cotton (63 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Corn (9 percent), Soybeans (9 percent) and Soybean Meal (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (9.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (10.6 percent)
Sugar (28.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (33.1 percent)
Coffee (100.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (93.9 percent)
Soybeans (8.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (8.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (24.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (28.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (18.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (11.6 percent)
Live Cattle (31.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (43.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (72.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (65.1 percent)
Cotton (63.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (75.5 percent)
Cocoa (45.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (44.3 percent)
Wheat (31.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (25.7 percent)

Coffee & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (22 percent) and Lean Hogs (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Meal (18 percent), Soybean Oil (18 percent) and Soybeans (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cotton (-22 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-18 percent), Wheat (-11 percent) and Cocoa (-6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (5.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (10.6 percent)
Sugar (0.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (9.3 percent)
Coffee (21.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (11.6 percent)
Soybeans (7.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (0.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (18.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (19.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (18.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (2.9 percent)
Live Cattle (-18.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-2.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (18.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (21.9 percent)
Cotton (-22.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-4.8 percent)
Cocoa (-6.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-14.7 percent)
Wheat (-10.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-10.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -190,191 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,855 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -181,336 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.943.510.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.131.010.8
– Net Position:-190,191195,882-5,691
– Gross Longs:278,917677,996162,698
– Gross Shorts:469,108482,114168,389
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.588.9100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.3-7.016.4

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 105,694 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,767 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 117,461 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.752.78.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.066.28.1
– Net Position:105,694-112,2026,508
– Gross Longs:197,840439,65373,784
– Gross Shorts:92,146551,85567,276
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.8 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.875.011.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.9-0.4-1.8

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 73,563 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,081 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,482 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.934.34.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.165.52.8
– Net Position:73,563-76,9573,394
– Gross Longs:95,93684,44810,331
– Gross Shorts:22,373161,4056,937
– Long to Short Ratio:4.3 to 10.5 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.060.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.8-24.236.1

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -158,477 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -437 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -158,040 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.958.36.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.038.47.7
– Net Position:-158,477165,652-7,175
– Gross Longs:90,965484,85256,884
– Gross Shorts:249,442319,20064,059
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.5 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):8.790.987.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.3-8.211.1

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,632 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,775 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,857 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.447.95.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.246.44.8
– Net Position:-10,6328,8941,738
– Gross Longs:112,246277,28829,366
– Gross Shorts:122,878268,39427,628
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.577.120.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.2-16.10.4

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -22,062 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 16,375 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,437 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.247.210.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.946.66.6
– Net Position:-22,0622,94619,116
– Gross Longs:90,980223,33250,302
– Gross Shorts:113,042220,38631,186
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.478.941.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.4-21.138.5

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 48,971 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,085 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,056 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.636.610.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.351.712.3
– Net Position:48,971-42,479-6,492
– Gross Longs:100,435103,15228,228
– Gross Shorts:51,464145,63134,720
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.770.855.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.422.0-5.1

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 52,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,080 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,135 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.533.07.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.046.910.2
– Net Position:52,215-43,955-8,260
– Gross Longs:128,394104,69724,100
– Gross Shorts:76,179148,65232,360
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.629.046.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.8-17.2-17.8

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 72,676 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -16,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 88,765 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.437.46.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.769.83.7
– Net Position:72,676-79,1536,477
– Gross Longs:106,20091,58515,457
– Gross Shorts:33,524170,7388,980
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.5 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.436.755.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.322.9-24.9

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 34,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,237 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,671 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.134.28.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.059.04.9
– Net Position:34,908-41,0186,110
– Gross Longs:58,11256,70714,165
– Gross Shorts:23,20497,7258,055
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.6 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.650.964.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.45.93.6

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -52,397 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,860 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,257 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.034.48.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.121.18.2
– Net Position:-52,39753,124-727
– Gross Longs:119,333137,04931,819
– Gross Shorts:171,73083,92532,546
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.6 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.166.262.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.79.213.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
06 Apr

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Sugar & Coffee

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Coffee

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (17,036 contracts) with Coffee (11,447 contracts), Lean Hogs (8,408 contracts), Soybean Oil (4,994 contracts), Wheat (1,465 contracts) and Cotton (126 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-8,692 contracts), Live Cattle (-6,854 contracts), Soybeans (-4,326 contracts), Corn (-3,315 contracts) and Cocoa (-2,659 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Cotton

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (97 percent) and Cotton (76 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Lean Hogs (65 percent), Cocoa (44 percent) and Live Cattle (44 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybeans (9 percent), Corn (10 percent) and Soybean Meal (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is in Wheat (26 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (10.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (10.9 percent)
Sugar (33.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (26.9 percent)
Coffee (96.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (84.9 percent)
Soybeans (8.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (9.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (28.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (25.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (11.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (15.2 percent)
Live Cattle (43.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (51.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (65.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (58.2 percent)
Cotton (75.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (75.4 percent)
Cocoa (44.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (47.0 percent)
Wheat (25.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (24.6 percent)

Lean Hogs & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (22 percent) and Soybean Oil (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Coffee (12 percent), Corn (10 percent) and Sugar (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cocoa (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-11 percent), Cotton (-5 percent) and Live Cattle (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (10.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (8.4 percent)
Sugar (9.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (3.0 percent)
Coffee (11.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-4.2 percent)
Soybeans (0.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (1.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (19.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (10.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (2.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (6.4 percent)
Live Cattle (-2.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (14.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (21.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (27.2 percent)
Cotton (-4.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (3.5 percent)
Cocoa (-14.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-13.3 percent)
Wheat (-10.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-22.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -181,336 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,315 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -178,021 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.243.19.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.331.210.5
– Net Position:-181,336192,640-11,304
– Gross Longs:294,298698,351159,330
– Gross Shorts:475,634505,711170,634
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.588.495.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.5-11.67.0

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 117,461 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 17,036 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 100,425 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.351.29.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.467.07.3
– Net Position:117,461-133,03015,569
– Gross Longs:196,650433,09776,912
– Gross Shorts:79,189566,12761,343
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.8 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.168.725.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.3-10.814.2

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 67,482 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,447 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,035 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.435.03.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.263.02.8
– Net Position:67,482-69,3991,917
– Gross Longs:90,29386,6458,823
– Gross Shorts:22,811156,0446,906
– Long to Short Ratio:4.0 to 10.6 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):96.66.940.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.9-12.716.0

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -158,040 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,326 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -153,714 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.660.46.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.839.87.7
– Net Position:-158,040169,140-11,100
– Gross Longs:95,389496,93352,452
– Gross Shorts:253,429327,79363,552
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.5 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):8.891.678.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.5-0.60.9

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,857 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,994 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,851 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.944.65.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.544.84.4
– Net Position:-3,857-1,2395,096
– Gross Longs:117,212262,78330,930
– Gross Shorts:121,069264,02225,834
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.971.433.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.3-19.114.3

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -38,437 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,692 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.449.29.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.444.26.7
– Net Position:-38,43723,94414,493
– Gross Longs:92,955235,81946,577
– Gross Shorts:131,392211,87532,084
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.687.220.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.9-2.1-8.2

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 60,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,854 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,910 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.234.49.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.352.111.7
– Net Position:60,056-53,210-6,846
– Gross Longs:115,438104,08128,519
– Gross Shorts:55,382157,29135,365
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.757.753.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.04.8-11.1

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 43,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,408 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,727 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.234.28.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.246.910.5
– Net Position:43,135-36,362-6,773
– Gross Longs:106,83998,35323,519
– Gross Shorts:63,704134,71530,292
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):65.137.653.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.9-21.8-8.4

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 88,765 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 88,639 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.136.96.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.971.03.5
– Net Position:88,765-97,0588,293
– Gross Longs:119,875105,05818,390
– Gross Shorts:31,110202,11610,097
– Long to Short Ratio:3.9 to 10.5 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):75.524.666.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.84.4-0.7

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 33,671 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,659 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,330 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.435.08.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.156.74.6
– Net Position:33,671-39,9026,231
– Gross Longs:59,65364,49814,675
– Gross Shorts:25,982104,4008,444
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.6 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.352.065.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.712.814.9

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -60,257 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,722 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.735.47.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.221.17.7
– Net Position:-60,25759,755502
– Gross Longs:119,394147,38232,581
– Gross Shorts:179,65187,62732,079
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.7 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.771.168.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.87.523.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
23 Mar

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Positions led by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (13,517 contracts) with Soybeans (12,760 contracts), Soybean Oil (12,316 contracts), Soybean Meal (11,182 contracts), Sugar (6,360 contracts), Lean Hogs (1,606 contracts) and Live Cattle (925 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Coffee (-6,266 contracts), Cotton (-5,881 contracts), Wheat (-2,291 contracts) and Cocoa (-190 contracts) with lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Cotton

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (79 percent) and Cotton (78 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (58 percent), Lean Hogs (57 percent) and Cocoa (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybeans (7 percent) and Soybean Meal (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Corn (11 percent) and the Soybean Oil (18 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (11.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (9.5 percent)
Sugar (23.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (21.3 percent)
Coffee (78.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (85.3 percent)
Soybeans (6.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (3.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (18.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (10.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (8.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (4.1 percent)
Live Cattle (58.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (57.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (57.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (56.0 percent)
Cotton (77.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (82.1 percent)
Cocoa (56.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (56.7 percent)
Wheat (28.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (30.2 percent)

Live Cattle & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Live Cattle (27 percent) and Lean Hogs (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cotton (24 percent), Soybean Oil (9 percent) and Corn (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cocoa (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-12 percent), Soybean Meal (-5 percent) and Coffee (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (6.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (4.4 percent)
Sugar (3.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (4.1 percent)
Coffee (-4.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.3 percent)
Soybeans (-1.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-8.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (9.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (3.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-4.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-9.4 percent)
Live Cattle (26.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (38.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (27.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (34.4 percent)
Cotton (23.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (41.6 percent)
Cocoa (-12.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-26.4 percent)
Wheat (-12.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-12.0 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -175,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,517 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -189,030 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.843.610.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.031.910.5
– Net Position:-175,513183,490-7,977
– Gross Longs:294,129683,677156,429
– Gross Shorts:469,642500,187164,406
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.287.3100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.7-7.89.0

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 91,323 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,360 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,963 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.552.78.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.564.47.5
– Net Position:91,323-97,8736,550
– Gross Longs:179,189439,45669,342
– Gross Shorts:87,866537,32962,792
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.8 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.679.411.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.90.7-19.6

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 50,165 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,266 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,431 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.839.83.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.863.33.0
– Net Position:50,165-51,5231,358
– Gross Longs:73,78986,9137,862
– Gross Shorts:23,624138,4366,504
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.6 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.924.732.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.94.9-1.1

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -167,653 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,760 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -180,413 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.661.46.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.338.08.4
– Net Position:-167,653180,816-13,163
– Gross Longs:97,583474,98852,094
– Gross Shorts:265,236294,17265,257
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):6.694.273.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.52.0-5.0

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -20,206 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,522 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.246.65.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.843.74.3
– Net Position:-20,20616,3873,819
– Gross Longs:108,981264,14628,339
– Gross Shorts:129,187247,75924,520
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.481.428.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.2-9.37.7

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -45,705 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,182 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,887 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.248.89.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.942.46.5
– Net Position:-45,70530,37815,327
– Gross Longs:90,991230,59146,201
– Gross Shorts:136,696200,21330,874
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):8.789.824.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.85.7-11.7

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 73,770 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 925 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,845 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.031.99.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.052.512.3
– Net Position:73,770-65,773-7,997
– Gross Longs:124,765102,08131,407
– Gross Shorts:50,995167,85439,404
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.542.447.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:26.6-26.6-15.0

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 33,622 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,606 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,016 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.136.88.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.347.99.9
– Net Position:33,622-29,122-4,500
– Gross Longs:92,55697,26721,740
– Gross Shorts:58,934126,38926,240
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.344.063.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:27.5-31.28.9

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 91,632 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,881 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,513 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.733.56.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.669.93.4
– Net Position:91,632-100,6218,989
– Gross Longs:126,33592,56818,265
– Gross Shorts:34,703193,1899,276
– Long to Short Ratio:3.6 to 10.5 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.722.170.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.9-23.214.6

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 45,582 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -190 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,772 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.330.56.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.355.23.8
– Net Position:45,582-51,2825,700
– Gross Longs:73,18863,09313,493
– Gross Shorts:27,606114,3757,793
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.6 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.540.660.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.812.14.1

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -56,060 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,291 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,769 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.336.08.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.121.88.4
– Net Position:-56,06057,895-1,835
– Gross Longs:119,628146,95132,432
– Gross Shorts:175,68889,05634,267
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.7 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.669.858.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.310.913.3

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
20 Mar

Cocoa beans are in short supply: what this means for farmers, businesses and chocolate lovers

By  Michael E Odijie, UCL 

A shortage of cocoa beans has led to a near shutdown of processing plants in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, the two countries responsible for 60% of global production. With chocolate makers around the world reliant on west Africa for cocoa, there is significant concern about the impact on the prices of chocolate and the livelihood of farmers. Cocoa researcher Michael Odijie explains the reasons for the shortage.

Why has cocoa production declined sharply in west Africa?

Three factors are at play: environmental, economic cycle related and human.

One environmental factor is the impact of the El Niño weather phenomenon, which has caused drier weather in west Africa. It has contributed to problems on farms, such as the swollen shoot virus disease. As a result, Ghana has lost harvests from nearly 500,000 hectares of land in recent years.

The economic cycle of cocoa production refers to the inherent patterns of expansion and contraction in cocoa farming. For example, as cocoa trees age, they become susceptible to diseases, requiring high maintenance costs. Historically, farmers have tended to abandon old farms and start anew in fresh forests. Unfortunately, finding new forests is now increasingly difficult. Perhaps the most severe issue of all is the lack of fair compensation for sustainable cocoa production

The human factor includes challenges such as illegal mining, which has overtaken numerous farms in Ghana. Sometimes, farmers lease their land to illegal miners in exchange for payment. These mining activities degrade the quality of the land, making it unsuitable for cocoa cultivation.

The global market for chocolate and chocolate products is on the rise. It is projected to grow faster than 4% annually over the next few years. This growing demand for cocoa underscores the urgency in addressing the intertwined issues that relate to the industry’s sustainability.

Have west African governments intervened to help cocoa farmers?

In February 2024, the Ghana Cocoa Board (Cocobod), regulator of the country’s cocoa sector, secured a World Bank loan of US$200 million to rehabilitate plantations affected by the cocoa swollen shoot virus. The board will take over the disease-ridden farms, remove and replace the afflicted cocoa trees, and nurture the new plantings to the fruiting stage before returning them to the farmers.

This practice of Cocobod taking out loans to assist farmers is a longstanding one in Ghana. For instance, in 2018, Cocobod used part of a $600 million loan from the African Development Bank to rehabilitate aging plantations and those hit by diseases. And at the start of the current harvest season in October, the producer price was raised: farmers are paid more, a move made inevitable by the surge in global prices. Also, Ghana Cocobod has established a task force to shield cocoa farms from the harmful impacts of mining. It has cooperated with police to stem the smuggling of cocoa to neighbouring countries, particularly those that offer a stronger currency.

In Côte d’Ivoire, relatively little action has been taken. It appears the government is still assessing the situation. But there have been measures to curb smuggling of cocoa, prompted by the fact that the shortage is driving up prices in neighbouring countries. Côte d’Ivoire does benefit from numerous sustainability programmes initiated by multinational corporations. The current shortage has accelerated these initiatives. Regrettably, some of the programmes do not disclose their data, making it difficult for academics to access and analyse their information.

African governments have yet to address significant structural issues in their interventions.

How have cocoa farmers and cocoa-producing countries’ economies been affected?

At the farm level, although the rise in prices may initially appear beneficial to farmers, the reality is not straightforward. A decrease in output leads to fewer harvests on average, which means that, overall, farmers are not earning more. This issue is compounded by recent economic challenges in west Africa, such as high inflation and currency devaluation, particularly in Ghana. These factors have resulted in farmers becoming poorer.

Another impact of the output decline is a reduction in local processing. Major African processing facilities in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana have either ceased operations or reduced their processing capacity because they cannot afford to purchase beans. This likely means that chocolate prices worldwide will surge. This, in turn, adversely affects the local production units that have been emerging in recent years.

However, the bargaining power of west African cocoa-producing countries seems to have increased. Now is an opportune moment for these nations to unite and negotiate more favourable terms for their cocoa farmers.

Will chocolate makers eventually turn to cocoa alternatives?

It’s inevitable because continuing to cultivate cocoa under current conditions is unsustainable. I don’t perceive this negatively; I hope it occurs sooner rather than later. In fact, it is already underway with the rise of cocoa butter equivalents, cocoa extenders and artificial flavours (synthetic or nature-identical flavours that mimic the taste of chocolate without the need for cocoa).

The German company Planet A Foods is a leader in this area. It produces cocoa-free chocolate, using technology to transform ingredients such as oats and sunflower seeds into substitutes for cocoa mass and butter.

Overall, this is beneficial for everyone. The demand for cocoa has resulted in mass deforestation and significant carbon emissions, issues that are likely to worsen due to climate change. Moreover, the push for cultivation has led to various forms of labour abuses. Exploring cocoa alternatives is certainly part of the solution.The Conversation

About the Author:

Michael E Odijie, Research associate, UCL

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Opinions Soft Commodities
16 Mar

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (41,857 contracts) with Soybeans (16,828 contracts), Soybean Oil (16,286 contracts), Live Cattle (3,932 contracts), Sugar (3,186 contracts), Coffee (2,959 contracts), Soybean Meal (2,622 contracts) and Cocoa (2,469 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Wheat (-8,981 contracts), Cotton (-3,599 contracts) and Lean Hogs (-1,812 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Cotton

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (85 percent) and Cotton (82 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Cocoa (57 percent), Live Cattle (57 percent) and Lean Hogs (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (4 percent), Soybeans (4 percent), Soybean Oil (10 percent) and Corn (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (9.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (4.3 percent)
Sugar (21.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (20.2 percent)
Coffee (85.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (82.3 percent)
Soybeans (3.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (10.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (4.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (3.0 percent)
Live Cattle (57.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (53.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (56.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (57.5 percent)
Cotton (82.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (84.8 percent)
Cocoa (56.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (54.1 percent)
Wheat (30.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (36.4 percent)

Cotton & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (42 percent), Live Cattle (38 percent) and Lean Hogs (34 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Cocoa (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-12 percent), Soybean Meal (-9 percent) and Soybeans (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (4.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-1.4 percent)
Sugar (4.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (5.1 percent)
Coffee (0.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.6 percent)
Soybeans (-8.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-20.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (3.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-15.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (-9.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-16.0 percent)
Live Cattle (38.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (45.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (34.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (47.4 percent)
Cotton (41.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (47.4 percent)
Cocoa (-26.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-33.1 percent)
Wheat (-12.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-1.4 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -189,030 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 41,857 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -230,887 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.443.09.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.730.010.6
– Net Position:-189,030199,050-10,020
– Gross Longs:297,244658,122151,688
– Gross Shorts:486,274459,072161,708
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.589.498.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.4-5.49.5

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 84,963 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,186 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,777 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.752.48.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.363.37.9
– Net Position:84,963-89,4684,505
– Gross Longs:177,558429,84269,383
– Gross Shorts:92,595519,31064,878
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.8 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.382.08.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.12.0-26.4

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 56,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,959 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,472 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.937.43.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.864.33.1
– Net Position:56,431-58,2621,831
– Gross Longs:77,57680,6668,435
– Gross Shorts:21,145138,9286,604
– Long to Short Ratio:3.7 to 10.6 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.318.038.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.3-0.0-3.6

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -180,413 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 16,828 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -197,241 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.460.66.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.634.88.4
– Net Position:-180,413191,331-10,918
– Gross Longs:99,347450,05351,545
– Gross Shorts:279,760258,72262,463
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):3.896.578.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.97.810.6

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -32,522 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 16,286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,808 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.646.45.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.540.84.8
– Net Position:-32,52230,4982,024
– Gross Longs:112,652254,15128,336
– Gross Shorts:145,174223,65326,312
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.489.521.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.5-2.3-5.2

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -56,887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,622 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,509 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.550.29.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.841.46.3
– Net Position:-56,88740,57516,312
– Gross Longs:85,247231,55545,244
– Gross Shorts:142,134190,98028,932
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.2 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.193.829.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.49.01.2

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 72,845 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,932 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,913 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.332.910.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.154.112.6
– Net Position:72,845-66,632-6,213
– Gross Longs:123,232103,11233,174
– Gross Shorts:50,387169,74439,387
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.541.356.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:38.4-39.9-15.7

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 32,016 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,812 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,828 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.936.18.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.446.810.5
– Net Position:32,016-27,582-4,434
– Gross Longs:89,56492,59722,626
– Gross Shorts:57,548120,17927,060
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.045.463.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:34.4-37.32.5

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 97,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,112 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:47.232.66.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.771.43.3
– Net Position:97,513-106,8809,367
– Gross Longs:129,74689,51118,421
– Gross Shorts:32,233196,3919,054
– Long to Short Ratio:4.0 to 10.5 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.117.972.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:41.6-40.930.7

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 45,772 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,469 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.728.17.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.052.34.5
– Net Position:45,772-51,0175,245
– Gross Longs:75,30159,26914,812
– Gross Shorts:29,529110,2869,567
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.5 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.740.856.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.425.18.0

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -53,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,981 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,788 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.436.38.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.022.38.6
– Net Position:-53,76955,780-2,011
– Gross Longs:120,577143,98431,984
– Gross Shorts:174,34688,20433,995
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):30.268.257.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.08.923.3

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
03 Mar

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Corn & Lean Hogs

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were a bit higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (33,463 contracts) with Lean Hogs (12,790 contracts), Sugar (11,564 contracts), Wheat (7,658 contracts), Cotton (7,212 contracts) and Live Cattle (4,119 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-21,367 contracts) with Soybeans (-30,944 contracts), Coffee (-4,163 contracts), Soybean Oil (-4,985 contracts) and Cocoa (-6,938 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Cotton & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cotton (86 percent) and Coffee (80 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Lean Hogs (54 percent), Cocoa (52 percent) and Live Cattle (50 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Oil (0 percent), Soybean Meal (0 percent), Soybeans (0 percent) and Corn (4 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (4.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (0.0 percent)
Sugar (27.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (23.8 percent)
Coffee (80.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (84.7 percent)
Soybeans (0.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (7.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (3.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (8.8 percent)
Live Cattle (50.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (45.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (53.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (43.2 percent)
Cotton (85.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (80.3 percent)
Cocoa (52.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (59.1 percent)
Wheat (41.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (36.5 percent)

Cotton & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (68 percent) and Live Cattle (47 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (45 percent), Sugar (16 percent) and Wheat (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cocoa (-30 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-23 percent), Soybeans (-22 percent) and Soybean Oil (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-1.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (-11.5 percent)
Sugar (15.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (8.2 percent)
Coffee (2.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (10.5 percent)
Soybeans (-22.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-27.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (-7.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-3.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (-22.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-17.6 percent)
Live Cattle (46.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (41.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (45.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (33.7 percent)
Cotton (68.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (67.1 percent)
Cocoa (-29.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-21.2 percent)
Wheat (6.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-7.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -232,604 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 33,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -266,067 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.744.610.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.127.911.2
– Net Position:-232,604250,628-18,024
– Gross Longs:295,676670,777151,100
– Gross Shorts:528,280420,149169,124
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.195.994.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.61.16.3

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 103,254 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,564 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.952.58.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.365.97.1
– Net Position:103,254-110,9527,698
– Gross Longs:187,869431,22766,010
– Gross Shorts:84,615542,17958,312
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.8 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.975.413.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.6-9.0-20.0

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 51,700 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.038.03.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.363.13.2
– Net Position:51,700-52,424724
– Gross Longs:75,33079,6907,361
– Gross Shorts:23,630132,1146,637
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.6 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):80.423.823.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.4-1.3-14.1

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -191,232 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -30,944 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -160,288 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.960.57.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.732.18.9
– Net Position:-191,232202,950-11,718
– Gross Longs:92,361432,41851,829
– Gross Shorts:283,593229,46863,547
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.076.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.120.117.2

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -38,926 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,985 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,941 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.648.25.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.041.15.1
– Net Position:-38,92637,2891,637
– Gross Longs:107,981252,66028,265
– Gross Shorts:146,907215,37126,628
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.019.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.16.7-2.7

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -66,820 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -21,367 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,453 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.652.89.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.140.57.5
– Net Position:-66,82056,23810,582
– Gross Longs:80,930242,67444,952
– Gross Shorts:147,750186,43634,370
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.3 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.03.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.824.7-30.8

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 65,999 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,119 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 61,880 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.634.710.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.054.611.9
– Net Position:65,999-60,465-5,534
– Gross Longs:114,745105,81130,732
– Gross Shorts:48,746166,27636,266
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.148.860.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:46.6-46.2-28.5

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 29,286 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,790 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,496 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.433.88.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.544.010.2
– Net Position:29,286-24,985-4,301
– Gross Longs:94,03782,65820,760
– Gross Shorts:64,751107,64325,061
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.747.664.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:45.0-49.77.5

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 102,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 7,212 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 95,093 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:47.730.36.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.171.82.8
– Net Position:102,305-112,88110,576
– Gross Longs:129,75082,40718,183
– Gross Shorts:27,445195,2887,607
– Long to Short Ratio:4.7 to 10.4 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.713.880.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:68.4-69.368.5

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 41,188 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,938 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,126 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.931.06.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.352.33.9
– Net Position:41,188-46,8715,683
– Gross Longs:81,55268,54414,358
– Gross Shorts:40,364115,4158,675
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.6 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.045.060.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-29.625.630.3

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -36,981 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,658 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,639 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.036.87.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.925.98.8
– Net Position:-36,98140,756-3,775
– Gross Longs:123,166137,34028,974
– Gross Shorts:160,14796,58432,749
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.4 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.857.049.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.7-9.916.0

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
24 Feb

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Lean Hogs & Cotton

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Lean Hogs & Cotton

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (14,917 contracts) with Cotton (11,158 contracts), Live Cattle (8,286 contracts), Soybeans (1,463 contracts) and Soybean Meal (14 contracts)  also in the plus column for the week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-20,128 contracts) with Wheat (-15,632 contracts), Soybean Oil (-9,325 contracts), Coffee (-4,221 contracts), Cocoa (-1,225 contracts) and Sugar (-465 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Softs Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Cotton

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (85 percent) and Cotton (80 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Cocoa (59 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (0 percent), Corn (0 percent), Soybeans (0 percent) and Soybean Oil (3 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (0.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (2.5 percent)
Sugar (23.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (23.9 percent)
Coffee (84.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (89.0 percent)
Soybeans (0.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (2.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (8.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (0.0 percent)
Live Cattle (45.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (36.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (43.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (31.0 percent)
Cotton (80.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (71.9 percent)
Cocoa (59.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (60.3 percent)
Wheat (36.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (47.4 percent)

Cotton & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (67 percent) and Live Cattle (42 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (34 percent), Coffee (11 percent) and Sugar (8 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybeans (-30 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cocoa (-21 percent), Soybean Meal (-19 percent) and Corn (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-11.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (-12.3 percent)
Sugar (8.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (6.3 percent)
Coffee (10.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (17.1 percent)
Soybeans (-29.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-33.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (-2.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (4.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (-19.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-32.5 percent)
Live Cattle (41.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (24.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (33.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (24.7 percent)
Cotton (67.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (58.9 percent)
Cocoa (-21.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-20.0 percent)
Wheat (-7.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (3.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -266,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -20,128 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -245,939 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.646.110.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.328.511.2
– Net Position:-266,067282,468-16,401
– Gross Longs:282,549738,256162,300
– Gross Shorts:548,616455,788178,701
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.097.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.511.36.9

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 91,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 92,155 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.754.38.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.965.87.7
– Net Position:91,690-97,6936,003
– Gross Longs:184,174461,06271,375
– Gross Shorts:92,484558,75565,372
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.8 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.879.510.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.2-4.9-9.1

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 55,863 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,221 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.236.23.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.163.63.2
– Net Position:55,863-56,600737
– Gross Longs:78,87574,7127,412
– Gross Shorts:23,012131,3126,675
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.6 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.719.623.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.5-8.8-18.5

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -160,288 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -161,751 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.559.26.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.537.87.9
– Net Position:-160,288171,748-11,460
– Gross Longs:100,976476,36452,352
– Gross Shorts:261,264304,61663,812
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.4100.077.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-29.628.110.0

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -33,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,325 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,616 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.448.85.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.543.04.8
– Net Position:-33,94132,5271,414
– Gross Longs:107,910271,18227,829
– Gross Shorts:141,851238,65526,415
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.598.818.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.92.7-0.5

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -45,453 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 14 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,467 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.449.49.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.543.66.3
– Net Position:-45,45329,15016,303
– Gross Longs:87,267247,49747,872
– Gross Shorts:132,720218,34731,569
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.029.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.317.713.4

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 61,880 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,594 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.636.710.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.356.312.3
– Net Position:61,880-57,126-4,754
– Gross Longs:106,475106,52330,961
– Gross Shorts:44,595163,64935,715
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.7 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.752.964.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:41.5-41.3-24.8

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 16,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 14,917 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,579 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.736.28.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.441.310.6
– Net Position:16,496-11,597-4,899
– Gross Longs:82,76281,58018,963
– Gross Shorts:66,26693,17723,862
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.259.461.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.7-36.31.1

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 95,093 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,158 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,935 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.633.46.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.772.43.1
– Net Position:95,093-103,4978,404
– Gross Longs:118,28888,44716,722
– Gross Shorts:23,195191,9448,318
– Long to Short Ratio:5.1 to 10.5 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):80.320.267.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:67.1-66.453.6

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 48,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,225 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,351 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.930.56.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.651.54.6
– Net Position:48,126-52,5974,471
– Gross Longs:89,68076,17715,889
– Gross Shorts:41,554128,77411,418
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.6 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.139.250.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.214.950.3

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -44,639 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -15,632 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,007 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.336.87.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.624.39.2
– Net Position:-44,63949,606-4,967
– Gross Longs:124,169145,80731,337
– Gross Shorts:168,80896,20136,304
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.5 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.563.644.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.85.317.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
18 Feb

Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator bets led by Cotton & Sugar

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cotton & Sugar

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Cotton (24,092 contracts) with Sugar (11,631 contracts), Soybean Oil (9,985 contracts), Wheat (9,277 contracts), Coffee (5,101 contracts), Live Cattle (4,440 contracts) and Lean Hogs (1,384 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-16,517 contracts), Soybean Meal (-11,545 contracts), Cocoa (-8,763 contracts) and Soybeans (-934 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Cotton

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (89 percent) and Cotton (72 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Cocoa (60 percent), Wheat (47 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (0 percent), Corn (0 percent), Soybeans (0 percent) and the Soybean Oil (8 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (0.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (2.1 percent)
Sugar (23.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (19.7 percent)
Coffee (89.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (83.8 percent)
Soybeans (0.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (0.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (8.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (2.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (5.2 percent)
Live Cattle (36.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (31.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (31.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (29.8 percent)
Cotton (71.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (53.8 percent)
Cocoa (60.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (69.2 percent)
Wheat (47.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (40.9 percent)

 

Cotton & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (59 percent) and Live Cattle (25 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (25 percent), Coffee (17 percent) and Sugar (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybeans (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-33 percent), Cocoa (-20 percent) and Corn (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-12.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (-12.9 percent)
Sugar (6.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.7 percent)
Coffee (17.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (11.3 percent)
Soybeans (-33.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-36.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (4.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-0.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-32.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-33.7 percent)
Live Cattle (24.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (17.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (24.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (17.6 percent)
Cotton (58.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (42.3 percent)
Cocoa (-20.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-9.6 percent)
Wheat (3.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-4.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of -245,939 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,517 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -229,422 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.545.49.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.729.010.9
– Net Position:-245,939263,504-17,565
– Gross Longs:281,214730,978157,423
– Gross Shorts:527,153467,474174,988
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.095.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.611.616.2

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 92,155 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 11,631 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 80,524 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.855.88.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.468.56.2
– Net Position:92,155-112,13819,983
– Gross Longs:184,125493,07675,081
– Gross Shorts:91,970605,21455,098
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.975.128.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.3-6.13.4

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 60,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,101 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,983 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.837.64.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.065.03.4
– Net Position:60,084-61,4421,358
– Gross Longs:82,47984,3988,905
– Gross Shorts:22,395145,8407,547
– Long to Short Ratio:3.7 to 10.6 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):89.014.832.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.1-16.4-2.7

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -161,751 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -934 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -160,817 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.359.36.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.337.08.2
– Net Position:-161,751171,638-9,887
– Gross Longs:86,975456,22952,898
– Gross Shorts:248,726284,59162,785
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.099.981.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-33.932.48.6

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -24,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,985 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,601 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.049.65.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.445.05.1
– Net Position:-24,61625,463-847
– Gross Longs:105,702275,76827,680
– Gross Shorts:130,318250,30528,527
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):8.095.010.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.7-2.8-10.1

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -45,467 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,922 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.149.59.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.343.66.4
– Net Position:-45,46728,73016,737
– Gross Longs:79,737244,53948,351
– Gross Shorts:125,204215,80931,614
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.030.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-32.529.724.9

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 53,594 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,440 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,154 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.037.611.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.354.712.7
– Net Position:53,594-48,988-4,606
– Gross Longs:97,639108,02331,859
– Gross Shorts:44,045157,01136,465
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.7 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.762.965.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:24.7-24.6-14.8

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,579 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,384 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 195 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.439.18.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.737.611.0
– Net Position:1,5793,243-4,822
– Gross Longs:70,92882,94718,474
– Gross Shorts:69,34979,70423,296
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.072.561.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:24.7-27.55.4

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 83,935 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 24,092 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,843 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.336.87.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.273.23.7
– Net Position:83,935-92,5658,630
– Gross Longs:102,36093,50517,952
– Gross Shorts:18,425186,0709,322
– Long to Short Ratio:5.6 to 10.5 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.927.668.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:58.9-59.557.6

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 49,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,763 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,114 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.231.46.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.051.64.0
– Net Position:49,351-54,8225,471
– Gross Longs:95,56285,41516,442
– Gross Shorts:46,211140,23710,971
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.6 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.337.058.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.014.742.4

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -29,007 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,277 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,284 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.536.47.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.927.88.7
– Net Position:-29,00733,760-4,753
– Gross Longs:124,909143,96929,853
– Gross Shorts:153,916110,20934,606
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.451.845.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.2-5.210.4

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

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