Archive for Metals – Page 4

13 Sep

Gold sets a new record as prices rise higher

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices surged to 2,570 USD per troy ounce on Friday. New record highs became possible amid the weakening position of the US dollar and declining yields on US government bonds.

Gold prices began to rise after the release of another package of US macroeconomic statistics. The weekly initial jobless claims increased compared to the previous week and remained above average values. This signals a weakening employment market, which is confirmed by weak wage figures for August. Meanwhile, US producer prices increased slightly more than expected in August due to high maintenance costs. The overall trend still confirms easing inflationary pressures, which will allow the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates next week.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut is 59% now, while the likelihood of a 50-basis-point rate cut is estimated at 41%. Yesterday, the ECB lowered its interest rate by 60 basis points to 3.65% per annum, which is a good signal for gold prices.

XAU/USD technical analysis

On the XAU/USD H4 chart, the market has broken above the consolidation range. A breakout of the 2,535.35 level can be considered as a market proposal to extend the growth wave to 2,570.00 and potentially further to 2,585.85. Today, the market has completed a wave, reaching 2,570.00. Subsequently, a technical decline to at least 2,541.55 (testing from above) could follow. Once the price hits this level, a growth structure might develop, aiming for the local target of 2,585.85. It is worth noting that breaking through the 2,535.35 level may result in a continuous growth structure to the 2,595.95 level, without a significant correction. This is the main target. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is above zero and pointing strictly upwards.

On the XAU/USD H1 chart, the market has completed a growth wave, reaching 2,570.00. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. With a downward breakout, the price could decline to 2,541.55. An upward breakout will open the potential for a continuation of the trend to 2,585.85. This scenario is also technically supported by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is around 80 and poised for a decline to 20.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
07 Sep

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Steel & Palladium

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Steel & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Steel (1,160 contracts) with Palladium (227 contracts) also recording a small positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-14,345 contracts), Gold (-6,887 contracts), Silver (-6,127 contracts) and with Copper (-4,184 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gold & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (97 percent) and Steel (82 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Palladium (17 percent) and Platinum (22 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (97.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (100.0 percent)
Silver (79.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (88.0 percent)
Copper (45.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (49.2 percent)
Platinum (21.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (60.0 percent)
Palladium (16.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (15.1 percent)
Steel (82.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (77.7 percent)

Steel & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (10 percent) and Gold (6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-29 percent) and Copper (-27 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with Silver (-7 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (6.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (3.9 percent)
Silver (-7.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-10.8 percent)
Copper (-27.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (-38.9 percent)
Platinum (-28.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-16.6 percent)
Palladium (4.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-10.3 percent)
Steel (10.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (7.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 287,558 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 294,445 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:66.415.710.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.176.85.3
– Net Position:287,558-311,88724,329
– Gross Longs:339,15780,41651,198
– Gross Shorts:51,599392,30326,869
– Long to Short Ratio:6.6 to 10.2 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):97.24.058.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.0-4.2-12.7

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 46,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,127 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,186 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.023.322.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.872.68.2
– Net Position:46,059-64,52918,470
– Gross Longs:64,09930,53829,148
– Gross Shorts:18,04095,06710,678
– Long to Short Ratio:3.6 to 10.3 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.722.660.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.210.3-19.3

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 12,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,184 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,145 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.335.09.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.944.46.4
– Net Position:12,961-18,9646,003
– Gross Longs:77,29070,73818,996
– Gross Shorts:64,32989,70212,993
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.354.154.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-27.229.0-26.7

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 1,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,345 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,733 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:48.127.114.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.538.74.6
– Net Position:1,388-10,1418,753
– Gross Longs:41,92423,58712,771
– Gross Shorts:40,53633,7284,018
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.7 to 13.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.764.6100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-28.926.812.3

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -11,633 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 227 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,860 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.861.57.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:80.58.97.0
– Net Position:-11,63311,62211
– Gross Longs:6,14513,5901,551
– Gross Shorts:17,7781,9681,540
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 16.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.786.934.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.61.2-38.1

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,160 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,892 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.169.80.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.550.91.2
– Net Position:-3,7323,836-104
– Gross Longs:4,06614,153135
– Gross Shorts:7,79810,317239
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.4 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.119.221.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.2-10.920.4

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
06 Sep

Gold rallies as market bets on rapid Fed monetary easing

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold has returned to growth. On Friday, a troy ounce of the precious metal was priced at 2517 USD. The price has stabilised as the market awaits the release of August’s crucial US employment report. The data could prompt a revision of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook, which is particularly important given the short time left before the Fed meets.

Lower interest rates could reduce the cost of holding gold as a non-yielding asset. Given the weak employment market signals, the market believes the Fed will be forced to act more decisively.

The latest statistics showed that private employers in the US hired at the slowest pace in 3.5 years in August. This follows a decline in the number of job vacancies. In addition, manufacturing activity in the economy declined. All this appears to be a negative factor indicating the state of the US economy and fuelling expectations of a 50-basis points rate cut in September. Investors are currently pricing in a 41% probability of such a scenario, which is relatively high. Considering fundamental factors, it is reasonable to assume that gold prices will continue to rise.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD has received support at 2472.00. Currently, the structure of a growth wave towards 2513.62 is being formed. Today, the market is creating a consolidation range around this level. An upside breakout will open the potential for growth towards 2555.50. A break above the 2522.00 level may signal the development of a further growth wave. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is above zero and sloping upwards.

On the H1 chart of XAUUSD, the market has completed a growth wave to 2513.62. Currently, the range is extended upwards to the level of 2523.20 and downwards to the level of 2504.00. In the case of a downward breakout, a decline to 2491.55 may occur. Conversely, an upward breakout could continue the trend to 2555.50. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is near the level of 80 and is preparing to decline to 20.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
31 Aug

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led higher by Gold, Silver & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold, Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while only one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (3,192 contracts) with Silver (2,862 contracts), Platinum (907 contracts), Palladium (405 contracts) and Steel (279 contracts) also registering positive weeks.

The market with a decline in speculator bets was Copper with a decrease by -3,129 contracts on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gold & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (100 percent) and Silver (88 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Steel (78 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (15 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (100.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (98.7 percent)
Silver (88.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (84.1 percent)
Copper (49.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (52.1 percent)
Platinum (60.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (57.6 percent)
Palladium (15.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (12.1 percent)
Steel (77.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (76.6 percent)

Steel & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (7 percent) and Gold (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.  is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Copper (-39 percent) and Platinum (-17 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (3.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (15.1 percent)
Silver (-10.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (-15.9 percent)
Copper (-38.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-33.3 percent)
Platinum (-16.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-20.9 percent)
Palladium (-10.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-19.9 percent)
Steel (7.4 percent) vs Steel previous week (3.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 294,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 291,253 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:65.816.310.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.478.15.1
– Net Position:294,445-322,31927,874
– Gross Longs:343,33085,10254,689
– Gross Shorts:48,885407,42126,815
– Long to Short Ratio:7.0 to 10.2 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.071.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.9-5.013.0

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 52,186 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,862 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,324 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.425.721.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.676.77.6
– Net Position:52,186-72,14019,954
– Gross Longs:65,71536,44430,674
– Gross Shorts:13,529108,58410,720
– Long to Short Ratio:4.9 to 10.3 to 12.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.014.167.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.812.9-17.6

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 17,145 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,274 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.532.99.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.545.05.3
– Net Position:17,145-26,0028,857
– Gross Longs:89,06370,51820,271
– Gross Shorts:71,91896,52011,414
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.7 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.248.071.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-38.937.8-12.7

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,733 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 907 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,826 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:55.722.312.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.351.14.4
– Net Position:15,733-22,1576,424
– Gross Longs:42,95117,2049,838
– Gross Shorts:27,21839,3613,414
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.4 to 12.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.032.572.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.618.5-12.7

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -11,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 405 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,265 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.557.46.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:73.611.06.5
– Net Position:-11,86011,921-61
– Gross Longs:7,07414,7591,623
– Gross Shorts:18,9342,8381,684
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 15.2 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.189.030.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.312.7-18.1

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,892 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 279 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,171 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.876.40.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.556.50.9
– Net Position:-4,8924,942-50
– Gross Longs:3,17718,955180
– Gross Shorts:8,06914,013230
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.4 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.723.426.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.4-7.77.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
27 Aug

Major New Upleg Starting in Copper?

Source: Clive Maund (8/27/24)

Technical Analyst Clive Maund shares an update where he explains why now is a great time to buy all things copper.

Copper looks ready for its next big runup, which could be massive. It has been performing very well indeed technically, as we can see on its latest 6-month chart below.

We turned bullish on it a little early a few weeks back at the time when it was at the Left Shoulder low of what has turned out to be a fine small Head-and-Shoulders bottom — after such a heavy correction, it was entitled to spend some time forming an intermediate reversal pattern.

That it has done, and as we can see on the chart, it is now complete — and according to Bloomberg yesterday morning, copper is now starting to break out, both from the H&S bottom and from the corrective downtrend, which at this point are coincident.

THIS THEREFORE IS A GOOD POINT TO BUY COPPER AND ALL THINGS COPPER.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found  below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  2. This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Clivemaund.com Disclosures

The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund’s opinions on the market and stocks cannot be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to buy and sell securities.

Financial News Metals
27 Aug

Gold’s Price Prospects Amid Middle East Tensions and Fed Policies

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices have recently dipped to 2507 USD per troy ounce but are poised for a potential rebound due to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating conflict in the Middle East. Additionally, anticipations of monetary policy easing by the US Federal Reserve in September further bolster gold’s outlook.

Monetary Policy and Market Dynamics

Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated a likely rate cut as US inflation approaches the target of 2%, with a particular focus on the softening employment market impacted by prolonged high interest rates. Mary Daly of the FRB San Francisco echoed Powell’s sentiment, advocating for policy adjustments which support a favourable environment for gold as lower interest rates typically decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.

Geopolitical Influences

The situation in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and the Gaza Strip, remains volatile. Despite initial hopes for a peace agreement facilitated by US diplomatic efforts, the conflict has reignited, driving up demand for gold. Such geopolitical uncertainties typically enhance gold’s appeal as a protective investment during times of crisis.

Technical Analysis of XAU/USD

In the latest XAUUSD analysis, gold exhibited a downward impulse to 2470.77 USD, followed by a correction to 2526.00 USD. It is forming another downward wave targeting 2480.20 USD, expecting to break this level and potentially move towards 2435.55 USD. The MACD indicator, with its signal line positioned above zero but pointing downward, supports this bearish scenario.

After completing a corrective structure to 2526.00 USD, gold is expected to form a downward wave to 2500.00 USD. Upon reaching this target, a brief rise to 2513.33 USD might occur before continuing downward to 2480.20 USD. This pattern suggests only half of the anticipated downward trend. The Stochastic oscillator, near 50 and expected to rise to 80, indicates potential short-term gains before resuming the downward movement.

Summary

The interplay of easing monetary policies by the Fed and increasing geopolitical risks in the Middle East creates a complex but potentially favourable backdrop for gold prices. Investors might see gold as an attractive investment, a safe-haven asset and a hedge against potential currency devaluation and inflation uncertainties. These factors and technical indicators suggest a volatile but upward potential trajectory for gold prices in the near term.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Metals Opinions
24 Aug

COT Metals Charts: Gold leads Speculator Bets higher

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Gold leads Speculator Bets higher

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (23,989 contracts) with Copper (4,477 contracts), Silver (4,035 contracts), Platinum (2,887 contracts) and Steel (750 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The market with declines in speculator bets was Palladium with a small dip by -41 contracts on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gold & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (100 percent) and Silver (84 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Steel (77 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (12 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (100.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (90.0 percent)
Silver (84.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (78.6 percent)
Copper (52.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (48.0 percent)
Platinum (57.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (49.9 percent)
Palladium (12.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (12.3 percent)
Steel (76.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (73.7 percent)

Gold & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (15 percent) and Steel (3 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Copper (-33 percent), Platinum (-21 percent) and Palladium (-20 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (15.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (10.8 percent)
Silver (-15.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (-14.3 percent)
Copper (-33.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (-31.1 percent)
Platinum (-20.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-32.1 percent)
Palladium (-19.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-11.2 percent)
Steel (3.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (-0.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 291,253 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 23,989 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 267,264 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:66.716.29.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.175.65.2
– Net Position:291,253-316,50625,253
– Gross Longs:355,55186,23252,918
– Gross Shorts:64,298402,73827,665
– Long to Short Ratio:5.5 to 10.2 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.062.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.3-14.1-2.2

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 49,324 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,035 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,289 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.524.321.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.972.77.0
– Net Position:49,324-71,22821,904
– Gross Longs:63,93035,69932,230
– Gross Shorts:14,606106,92710,326
– Long to Short Ratio:4.4 to 10.3 to 13.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.115.176.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.915.1-8.9

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 20,274 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,477 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,797 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.131.88.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.344.15.1
– Net Position:20,274-28,0057,731
– Gross Longs:91,83572,87419,316
– Gross Shorts:71,561100,87911,585
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.7 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.146.364.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-33.334.1-22.9

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,826 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,939 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:56.522.912.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.349.04.4
– Net Position:14,826-21,2736,447
– Gross Longs:45,98018,61610,054
– Gross Shorts:31,15439,8893,607
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.5 to 12.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.634.972.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.922.1-8.0

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,265 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -41 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,224 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.751.26.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:72.99.35.6
– Net Position:-12,26511,908357
– Gross Longs:8,44014,5431,952
– Gross Shorts:20,7052,6351,595
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 15.5 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.088.950.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.718.18.2

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -5,171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 750 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,921 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.977.00.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.255.40.9
– Net Position:-5,1715,213-42
– Gross Longs:3,12918,655177
– Gross Shorts:8,30013,442219
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.4 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.624.527.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.3-3.57.3

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
21 Aug

Precious Mettle

Source: Michael Ballanger (8/19/24)

 Michael Ballanger of GGM Advisory Inc. shares his thoughts on the current state of the junior mining sector, and one copper stock he believes should be in your portfolio.

“The desire for gold is the most universal and deeply rooted commercial instinct of the human race.” – Gerald M. Loeb

Gerald M. Loeb was a founding partner of the famous brokerage house E.F. Hutton, where he honed his skills as a Wall Street trader and investment banker. Having survived the 1929 market crash, that experience marred him for life, creating an investment style that involved “never holding a stock position for the long-term.”

He wrote the book that I have read cover-to-cover three times in forty-five years, The Battle for Investment Survival, which emphasized the concept of cutting losses quickly and letting profits “ride” as a surefire strategy for above-average performance and risk control. It is also in direct contravention of the Benjamin Graham/Warren Buffet rules of investment engagement that dictate that value investors buy and hold securities for longer-term periods.

Loeb’s quote at the top of this page joins the famous quote by J.P. Morgan, “Gold is money; everything else is credit.” in defining how these two merchants of the 1900’s bond and stock markets viewed the one asset that today’s Wall Street mavens view as a “barbarous relic.”

As gold moves to escape velocity above the magical USD $2,500/oz. level, and the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD:NYSE) hits an all-time high this morning, it is instructive to sit back and ponder the remarks of two titans of finance when it comes to their view on gold’s utility within portfolios.

The current Wall Street narrative is now dominated with this nagging debate over the Fed’s next course of action. The “stocks for the long-term” spin machine has done such a wonderful job of training the portfolio managers to drool uncontrollably at the mere mention of rate cuts, it is as if Pavlov has forgotten to ring the bell for a solid week in front of a cage of ravenous, starving canines.

It seems like it was just yesterday that the world was on the brink of a total self-immolation of the banking system thanks to the unbridled overindulgence in leverage everywhere that a commission fee could be levied. The GFC of 2008 was followed by bailout after bailout, replete with outsized bonus pools for all that participated in the sub-prime scam. No jail time, no convictions, and zero regulatory reprimand for any of the architects of the largest public swindle of taxpayer money in the history of the planet.

Yet without mention anywhere amongst the legions of “expert commentators” in the financial media is the fact that gold bullion purchased in January 2003 has outperformed the S&P 500 by a margin of 615% to 529%.

Why is that?

Well, let us start with the fee structure. It is no secret that recommending that a client go on a monthly investment plan for gold involves no rotation, and in the world of Wall Street “comp,” there are much larger fees for turning a client’s portfolio over three or four times a year especially when in-house products with big fat underwriting fees are included. Also, investment banking is a huge source of revenue for Wall Street banks like Goldman or JP Morgan, and again, it is no mystery that “paper” products like IPOs are easier with which to conjure up financial wizardry with huge built-in fees that are geared around “sophistication” (more appropriately called “the ability to confuse and confound“) as they bundle up various layers of credit risk to resemble an AAA-rated security.

You simply cannot do that with a metal that carries the periodic number “79.” In reality, if you really backed out all the fees generated within the perimeter of the S&P 500 realm of companies by the Wall Street geniuses, that 529% for the S&P return would probably be half that number.

In a fit of forlorn reasoning, I decided back in May that I would refrain from adding to my gold holdings until mid-August, a practice that I have used frequently in setting up a year-end portfolio structure that captures gold’s seasonality trade. Because I had my head buried in a seemingly enlightened crevice of self-certainty and intransigence, I anchored the notion that just because I thought it made sense, it just had to happen.

Well, a month ago, I woke up to the reality that gold had decided that perhaps — just perhaps — the “analyst” from Port Perry was going to get left summarily behind in his maniacal quest to pick gold off in the $2,250-2,300 range or the GLD in the $200-205 range before new highs could be possibly achieved.

Alas, as usually happens, I forgot the “Twainian” Rule that goes something like this: “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble’; it’s what you know for sure that turns out to be not exactly so.”

I knew “for sure” that gold would bottom in mid-August, and luckily, my hedges on GLD were modest at best, and they did not exactly get me “into trouble.” What it represented was more of an opportunity cost more than a financial cost with a smattering of reputational embarrassment thrown in. Nevertheless, as the famous quote by Martin Zweig goes, “It’s OK to be wrong; it’s unforgivable to stay wrong.”

GLD has moved to an all-time high today (which is the exact definition of the term “mid-August) with a move to $231.10, surpassing the prior high of $229.65 last seen on July 17.

Silver

iShares Silver Trust (ETF) (SLV:NYSE), by contrast, has failed to come anywhere near its 2022 high of $29.56, last seen on May 20. Using the GLD:SLV to arrive at the gold-silver ratio, the GSR is now at 88.30 up from 74, which marked the May low for that very important ratio. The GSR is the concrete that bonds together all aspects of the gold-silver bull thesis because (and I know you are all rolling your eyes) without this ratio making new lows as the precious metals advance, any rally is doomed. Silver is the speculative spark that ignites the animal spirits that drive the precious metals shares which in turn drives the retail public into the explorers and developers where most of the leverage is contained. To attract the interest (and dollars) of the wild-eyed speculator, there needs to be a “hook.”

Silver fills that roll.

Just as most of the tried-and-true rules surrounding stocks are now prehistoric drivel thanks largely to the predominance of the algobots, it is entirely possible that gold can continue to outperform silver right through $3,000/ounce driven by the current narrative that the main buyers of the precious metals are central banks where record after record continues to be broken in terms of physical offtake.

No such offtake is occurring in the silver arena. Only industrial and investment demand (primarily from retail) drives silver, and thus far, that has been insufficient to replace the sheer volume of central bank buying in the yellow metal. Hence, I have stuck to gold and copper as my top metals to own for the past decade.

Copper

Speaking of the copper market, I have been typing away since the Nikkei “carry trade crash” on August 5, urging subscribers to replace all of the copper names they sold back in May when copper broke below $4.00/lb. bottoming in the $3.92/lb. range joining stocks in that Monday rout.

Copper just initiated a bullish MACD crossover and is now on a “buy signal,” as is the money flow indicator. RSI at 48.73 provides considerable runway for price before it approaches overbought territory so these momentum indicators are pretty powerful reasons to own the red metal.

As for target prices, the 50-dma at $4.33/lb. and the 100-dma at $4.42 will probably cap the advance but if they are taken out, what now must be classified as a “bear market rally” will be reclassified as a “bull market resumption” and the negative implications of the 24.6% correction from the May highs get thrown overboard.

Fundamentals for copper remain strongly bullish, with the most recent comment by RBC being retweeted by Ivanhoe Mines founder Robert Friedland. “An attractive entry point for <copper> equities”  is exactly what I have been hammering since the August 5 flush with my number one portfolio move in months being the replacement of all stock and call option positions in Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX:NYSE).

The stock touched down on crash day at $39.21, sporting an RSI under 25, and gave me the fortuitous window in which to replace the positions that I jettisoned back in May when the RSI was screaming toward 80 and trading over $53 per share.

The terror I felt in dumping my beloved FCX was overshadowed only by the capital gains I crystallized in both stock and June call options, but for the past three months, I writhed in stressful agony every time the stock upticked a dime or two. Now, I own an oversized position in the company that produces two of my favorite metals for the decade ending in 2030 — copper and gold.

Everyone should visit its website and take the time to review their operations around the world. They are everywhere — including next to my largest junior explorer-developer Fitzroy Minerals Inc. (FTZ:TSX.V; FTZFF:OTCQB)in the Valparaiso district of Chile where FTZ is conducting exploration on the highly-prospective Caballos Copper Property.

The junior miners as a group are still about as challenged a group as I have seen in my forty-five years as an “incubator” of these little guys who have made most of the world-class discoveries in the past five decades. As the Boomers age and settle on clipping coupons and playing golf, the last demographic to experience true financial rapture through mineral discoveries of all types and sizes on all five continents is now a pitiably smaller force than in the 1990s when listening to exploration “stories” was the ultimate in water cooler conversation.

The mania that swept investors into a financing frenzy that brought untold wealth through ownership of juniors finding ore bodies that became world-class mining operations like Dia Met (diamonds in Canada) and Diamondfields (Voisey’s Bay nickel-copper-cobalt) and Eskay Creek (gold-silver) is going to return with a vengeance. This is going to be driven when the Gen-X and Millennial generations suddenly wake up and realize that they are missing the biggest commodity boom in world history.

It was only 15 years ago that I first learned that a “Tier One” gold asset involved a minimum of 5 million ounces, with gold prices at $1,250 per ounce. Today, we are at $2,534. Using simple math, that should mean that a gold project with half as many ounces should now be valued as a “Tier One” asset.

How many junior gold developers out there have 2.5 million ounces in the ground trading for a fraction of a proper “Tier One” valuation?

Dozens upon dozens in jurisdictions like Nevada and Quebec that cannot get a meeting with investment bankers if their lives depended on it. That, my friend, is going to change at a point where rising gold prices force the bankers and the M&A specialists to smell the money and start dialing feverishly to cement banking relationships from these struggling juniors.

It will not just be gold; juniors with copper-gold porphyry or IOCG deposits will be in the queue, readily open for business. As in all eras, it is the allure of fee-generating deals that drives the bankers into the waiting arms of anyone with a story. For most of this decade, that story has been technology and is now cresting with the latest mania called “artificial intelligence.” The rotation I foresee is into the junior exploration space where gold and copper are kings.

As they used to say in the pork belly pit on the old Chicago Board of Trade: “Buy ’em!“

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Fitzroy Minerals Inc.
  2. Michael Ballanger:  I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: All. My company has a financial relationship with Fitzroy Minerals Inc.  I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
  3. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found  below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  4.  This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Michael Ballanger Disclosures

This letter makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents my views and replicates trades that I am making but nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. I accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this letter. Options and junior mining stocks contain a high level of risk that may result in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are suitable for experienced and professional investors and traders only. One should be familiar with the risks involved in junior mining and options trading and we recommend consulting a financial adviser if you feel you do not understand the risks involved.

Financial News Metals
19 Aug

XAUUSD: Holds near record high…what next?

By ForexTime 

  • Gold ↑ 21% year-to-date
  • FOMC minutes & Jackson Hole in focus
  • Bullish but RSI overbought on multiple timeframes
  • Bloomberg FX model: 73% XAUUSD – (2440.49 – 2567.13)
  • Key technical level – $2500

In case you missed it, gold surged over 2% last Friday to create a fresh all-time high above $2509!

Prices sprinted past the psychological $2500 level after disappointing US economic data boosted bets around faster and deeper cuts by the Fed. With the US dollar and Treasury yields on the back foot, it felt like everyone wanted a shiny piece of the zero-yielding metal.

Gold

Despite the shaky start to the new week, gold bulls remain in a position of power.

However, the Relative Strength Index on the daily, weekly and monthly are signalling that prices are heavily overbought. If the upside momentum loses steam, this could lead to a technical pullback.

Note: A technical pullback is a temporary pause or decline in an asset’s overall bullish trend.

Gold weekly

In our mid-year review, we highlighted how gold’s outlook will be influenced by what actions the Fed takes in the second half of 2024. Much has changed since then with traders currently expecting one 25 bp rate cut by September, another 25 bp cut by November and a potential 50bp cut by December.

With all the above said, this promises to be another eventful week for gold.

Here are 3 factors that could spark volatility:

 

    1) FOMC minutes + US Jobless claims

The aggressive price action witnessed last Friday shows how gold remains highly sensitive US interest rate expectations.

This could mean more volatility on the horizon, especially with the incoming FOMC minutes and US jobless claims. Last month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a dovish tone and signalled that rate cuts were on the horizon during his press conference. Should the minutes mirror the same message, this could further support rate cut bets.

Regarding the US initial jobless claims report on Thursday, any weakness in the labour forces could reinforce expectations around faster and deeper cuts.

  • Gold prices are likely to push higher if soft US data supports the case for lower rates.
  • Should economic data print higher than expected, this may drag the precious metal lower.

 

    2) Jackson Hole Symposium

As covered in our week ahead report, Jackson Hole is an annual event packed with central bankers, finance ministers and economists discussing pressing global economic issues. This year it will be held from August 22nd – August 24th.

On Friday 23rd August, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to signal that a September rate cut is on the cards. This could mean fresh volatility for gold due to its sensitivity to US interest rates. Ultimately, the precious metal’s outlook could be influenced by what’s said or not during Powell’s big speech.

 

    3) Technical forces

Prices are firmly bullish on the daily charts as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows.  The candlesticks are trading above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA but the RSI is trading near overbought territory.

  • Should $2500 prove to be reliable support, this may encourage a move towards the next psychological point at $2550.​​​​​​​
  • Sustained weakness below $2500, could open a path toward $2483, $2450 and $2440.  

Gold 2

According to Bloomberg’s FX forecast model, there’s a 73% chance that XAUUSD trades within the 2440.49 – 2567.13 range this week.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

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Financial News Metals
17 Aug

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Gold & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (28,515 contracts) with Platinum (1,648 contracts) and Palladium (1,020 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-3,801 contracts), Silver (-3,792 contracts) and with Steel (-23 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gold & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (92 percent) and Silver (79 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Steel (74 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (12 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Copper (48 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (92.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (80.1 percent)
Silver (78.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (83.8 percent)
Copper (48.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (51.5 percent)
Platinum (49.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (45.5 percent)
Palladium (12.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (4.9 percent)
Steel (73.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (73.8 percent)

Gold & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (11 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals and is the only positive mover in the latest trends data this week.

Platinum (-32 percent) and Copper (-31 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with Silver (-14 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (11.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (-3.2 percent)
Silver (-14.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (-9.3 percent)
Copper (-31.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (-28.4 percent)
Platinum (-32.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-27.5 percent)
Palladium (-11.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-2.5 percent)
Steel (-0.6 percent) vs Steel previous week (0.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 267,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 28,515 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 238,749 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:65.017.510.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.275.35.0
– Net Position:267,264-292,50225,238
– Gross Longs:328,76988,31350,388
– Gross Shorts:61,505380,81525,150
– Long to Short Ratio:5.3 to 10.2 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):92.46.862.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.0-11.27.1

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 45,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,792 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,081 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.625.821.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.970.97.1
– Net Position:45,289-66,77621,487
– Gross Longs:61,45838,07931,934
– Gross Shorts:16,169104,85510,447
– Long to Short Ratio:3.8 to 10.4 to 13.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.620.174.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.314.7-12.8

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 15,797 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,801 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,598 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.431.79.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.642.35.3
– Net Position:15,797-24,4038,606
– Gross Longs:86,01372,86020,861
– Gross Shorts:70,21697,26312,255
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.7 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.049.469.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-31.132.5-26.0

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 11,939 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,648 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,291 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:56.723.012.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.145.84.1
– Net Position:11,939-18,6106,671
– Gross Longs:46,28718,76910,015
– Gross Shorts:34,34837,3793,344
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.5 to 13.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.942.076.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-32.130.411.0

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -12,224 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,020 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,244 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.248.07.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:71.98.15.7
– Net Position:-12,22411,676548
– Gross Longs:8,84314,0592,216
– Gross Shorts:21,0672,3831,668
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 15.9 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.387.359.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.27.523.2

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -5,921 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,898 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.979.50.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.551.61.2
– Net Position:-5,9215,987-66
– Gross Longs:2,12317,057181
– Gross Shorts:8,04411,070247
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.5 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):73.727.425.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.60.46.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
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