Archive for Metals – Page 31

13 May

Copper Speculator bets slide to 32-week low as prices touch lowest since November

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (1,397 contracts) with Palladium (797 contracts), Silver (408 contracts) and Gold (247 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-3,123 contracts) and Steel (-314 contracts).

Copper bets slide to 32-week low as prices touch lowest since November

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the recent bearishness for the Copper speculative positions. The large speculator position in Copper futures decreased for the third straight week this week and has now dropped in five out of the past six weeks. The slide in Copper bets has taken the current net contracts standing down to a total of -24,865 contracts. This marks the most bearish level for speculators in the past 32-weeks, dating back to last September 27th.

Overall, the Copper speculator position has now been in a bearish level for eleven out of the past thirteen weeks.

Denting the sentiment for the red metal has been the weaker than expected data out of China (including imports & inflation), which is the largest importer of Copper in the world.

The Copper front-month futures price (US Comex futures) has been on downtrend since hitting a most recent high of $4.25 per pound in January. This week saw the price fall for a fourth straight week and close at approximately 3.73 per pound while also touching the lowest price since November. Overall, the Copper price is down about 25 percent from the post-2020 high of $4.6255 per pound that was reached in March of 2022.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
May-09-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Gold518,95145195,81463-222,5153826,70147
Silver145,4453232,36064-46,1903813,83043
Copper194,24338-24,865619,732905,13351
Palladium13,295100-5,647135,96587-31823
Platinum74,1258628,08480-32,484264,40027

 

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Platinum (80 percent) and Silver (64 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Steel (62 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (13 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (63.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (63.1 percent)
Silver (64.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (63.8 percent)
Copper (6.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (9.0 percent)
Platinum (80.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (77.2 percent)
Palladium (13.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (6.0 percent)
Steel (61.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (62.8 percent)

 

Platinum & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (41 percent) and Silver (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Copper (-21 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (6.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (16.3 percent)
Silver (27.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (40.7 percent)
Copper (-20.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-8.4 percent)
Platinum (40.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (39.6 percent)
Palladium (10.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (5.3 percent)
Steel (3.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (3.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 195,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 247 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 195,567 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:51.325.210.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.668.14.9
– Net Position:195,814-222,51526,701
– Gross Longs:266,472130,98552,012
– Gross Shorts:70,658353,50025,311
– Long to Short Ratio:3.8 to 10.4 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.338.046.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.2-8.117.1

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 32,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 408 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,952 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:47.628.617.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.360.48.0
– Net Position:32,360-46,19013,830
– Gross Longs:69,16641,63625,474
– Gross Shorts:36,80687,82611,644
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.5 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.437.943.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:27.1-29.429.8

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -24,865 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,123 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,742 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.448.09.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.237.86.8
– Net Position:-24,86519,7325,133
– Gross Longs:55,13193,21118,255
– Gross Shorts:79,99673,47913,122
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):6.290.250.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.920.9-8.4

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 28,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,397 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,687 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:56.327.510.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.471.44.2
– Net Position:28,084-32,4844,400
– Gross Longs:41,71220,4087,535
– Gross Shorts:13,62852,8923,135
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.4 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):80.426.327.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:40.9-36.6-0.1

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -5,647 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 797 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,444 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.062.29.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:55.517.311.5
– Net Position:-5,6475,965-318
– Gross Longs:1,7338,2691,211
– Gross Shorts:7,3802,3041,529
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 13.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.487.222.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.3-10.36.7

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -3,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -314 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.277.10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.361.90.9
– Net Position:-3,8963,922-26
– Gross Longs:3,16119,929214
– Gross Shorts:7,05716,007240
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.938.415.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.9-2.9-45.4

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Metals Opinions
02 May

Trade of the Week: The return of $2k gold?

By ForexTime 

Spot gold has been trapped within a $46 range for the most part since April 17th.

Though finding support around the upper-$1900 levels over the past two weeks, the precious metal can scarcely keep its head above the psychologically-important $2,000 line.

 

However, this week’s events could go a long way in determining whether we’ll see an upside or downside breakout for spot gold.

 

Here’s a play-by-play on 4 fundamental events over four days that could greatly influence spot gold this week:

  • Tuesday, May 2nd: Eurozone April inflation

The Eurozone’s CPI (consumer price index), which measures the changes in headline inflation, is forecasted to print at 7%.

If so, that would be an uptick from the 6.9% registered in March.

However, if the official CPI figure drops notably below that 7% mark, suggesting that headline inflation is easing, that would erode expectations for more European Central Bank rate hikes.

And such a notion should weaken the Euro while boosting the US dollar, which in turn may drag spot gold prices lower in USD terms.

Lower-than-expected Eurozone inflation = weaker Euro = stronger US dollar = lower gold

 

 

  • Wednesday, May 3rd: Federal Reserve rate decision

The US central bank is likely to raise its benchmark rates by another 25-basis points (bps).

Anything else (no hike/50-bps hike) would be a massive shock to traders and investors worldwide!

However, more importantly, markets are desperate to know whether this week’s Fed rate hike is the final one of a series that began over a year ago.

Confirmation from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that US rates would’ve reached its peak this week could see gold prices resurfacing above the $2k mark.

After all, gold is a zero-yielding asset (investors don’t get paid for holding on to gold) and shudders at the thought of US interest rates moving even higher than expected.

Furthermore, if markets get the sense that Fed rate CUTS are growing likelier in the latter part of 2023, that could give gold further impetus to launch another attempt at a fresh record high!

Fed rate hikes are over/Fed rate cuts later in 2023 = weaker US dollar = a potential return of US$2k gold

 

 

  • Thursday, May 4th: European Central Bank rate decision

The ECB is widely expected to hike its own benchmark rates by another 25-bps (same size as the Fed’s rate hike).

However, if the ECB shocks markets with a larger 50-bps hike (11.5% chance of such a shocker), or if ECB President Christine Lagarde presses home policymakers’ intentions to keep hiking rates (especially if Tuesday’s Eurozone CPI greatly exceeds market expectations), then the same formula may be called into action once more:

More hawkish ECB = stronger Euro = weaker US dollar = higher gold prices in USD terms.

 

 

  • Friday, May 5th: US jobs report

The US nonfarm payrolls headline number has to greatly defy the market-forecasted 180,000 print in order for gold to drag gold lower.

Further signs of resilient hiring momentum, despite the 475-bps (excluding this week’s expected 25-bps hike) in Fed rate hikes that were intended to destroy demand since Q1 2022, would suggest that the Fed can ill afford to pause its rate-hike cycle after this week.

Also, if April’s unemployment rate stubbornly matches the 3.5% rate set in March, as opposed to ticking higher to 3.6% as per forecasts, would likely add to expectations that the Fed has to stay hawkish (press ahead with more rate hikes).

Stronger-than-expected NFP = more incoming Fed rate hikes = stronger US dollar = weaker gold prices

 

 

Key levels for spot gold

SUPPORT:

  • Mid-$1970s: lower bound of recent trading range
  • $1959.66: early-February cycle high
  • $1934 – $1949 range: March-early April support
  • 50-day simple moving average (SMA)

Still, spot gold may not have far to fall, as long as markets refuse to abandon hopes that the Fed will have to start lowering US interest rates later this year.

 

RESISTANCE:

  • $2,000: psychologically-important mark
  • $2032.14: April 5th intraday high
  • $2048.36: one-year high (since March 2022)

 

The longer it can stay above that $2k mark, the greater the chances of a fresh record high for spot gold!

 

At the time of writing, Bloomberg’s model points to a 72% chance that spot gold will trade within the $1938.57 – $2031.73 range over the next one-week period.

The pivotal events due in the days ahead may also have a great influence on how gold performs in the weeks and months ahead.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Metals Opinions
29 Apr

Metals Speculators raise Platinum bullish bets to 20-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (5,298 contracts) with Silver (4,008 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-25,976 contracts), Gold (-4,629 contracts), Steel (-785 contracts) and Palladium (-240 contracts) seeing lower bets on the week.

Speculators increase Platinum bullish bets to 20-week high

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the rise in bullish bets for the Platinum speculative positions. The large speculator position in Platinum futures rose by over +5,000 contracts this week and are higher for the fourth time in the past five weeks as well as higher in six out of the past nine weeks.

A total of +20,091 contracts have been added to the net speculator position over the past five-week period, bringing the current standing to the most bullish level in twenty weeks, dating back to January 10th. Overall, the Platinum positioning has now been in bullish territory for thirty-two straight weeks.

The Platinum futures price recently hit its highest level in over a year with a high of $1102.00 on April 23rd. This marked the best level since March 9th of 2022 when prices reached all the way to $1197.00.

This week, however, Platinum gave back some of its gains and prices fell for the first time in the past five weeks and closed at the $1090.10 threshold. Despite this week’s decline, Platinum overall has risen by over twenty percent since it’s most recent low of $904 in February.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Apr-25-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Gold473,20924185,26459-211,9284226,66447
Silver149,6923730,60362-41,5234410,92027
Copper202,42244-17,042138,304808,73874
Palladium12,27088-5,877116,30990-43216
Platinum72,1257929,61784-34,316234,69931

 

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Platinum (84 percent) and Silver (62 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Palladium (11 percent) and Copper (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (58.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (60.6 percent)
Silver (61.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (56.2 percent)
Copper (13.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (36.4 percent)
Platinum (83.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (71.7 percent)
Palladium (11.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (13.5 percent)
Steel (57.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (59.3 percent)

 

Silver & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (45 percent) and Platinum (44 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Copper (-3 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-2 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (19.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (40.2 percent)
Silver (45.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (49.1 percent)
Copper (-2.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (14.9 percent)
Platinum (44.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (44.3 percent)
Palladium (5.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (13.5 percent)
Steel (-2.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (-1.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 185,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,629 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 189,893 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.526.310.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.471.15.2
– Net Position:185,264-211,92826,664
– Gross Longs:253,186124,51851,048
– Gross Shorts:67,922336,44624,384
– Long to Short Ratio:3.7 to 10.4 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.642.146.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.8-21.829.0

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 30,603 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,008 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.230.716.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.758.48.9
– Net Position:30,603-41,52310,920
– Gross Longs:66,14545,90724,230
– Gross Shorts:35,54287,43013,310
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.5 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.943.627.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:45.4-39.12.6

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -17,042 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -25,976 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,934 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.345.610.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.741.56.1
– Net Position:-17,0428,3048,738
– Gross Longs:57,22492,29421,052
– Gross Shorts:74,26683,99012,314
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.280.573.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.61.010.7

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 29,617 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,298 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,319 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:57.225.410.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.173.04.0
– Net Position:29,617-34,3164,699
– Gross Longs:41,24018,3027,597
– Gross Shorts:11,62352,6182,898
– Long to Short Ratio:3.5 to 10.3 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):83.922.531.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:44.0-41.312.6

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -5,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -240 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,637 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.668.19.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:59.516.712.9
– Net Position:-5,8776,309-432
– Gross Longs:1,4288,3611,152
– Gross Shorts:7,3052,0521,584
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 14.1 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.390.115.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.5-5.75.3

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -5,564 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,779 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.977.90.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.459.70.6
– Net Position:-5,5645,49965
– Gross Longs:3,59523,482244
– Gross Shorts:9,15917,983179
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.3 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.043.027.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.23.5-58.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Metals Opinions
22 Apr

Copper Speculator bets go bullish for first time since February

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Steel & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (13,237 contracts) with Platinum (10,986 contracts), Silver (2,877 contracts), Palladium (1,436 contracts) and Steel (329 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The market with a decline in speculator bets for the week was Gold with a drop of -2,852 contracts on the week.

Copper bets go bullish for first time since February

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the renewed bullishness for the Copper speculative positions. The large speculator position in Copper futures rose by over +13,000 contracts this week and are higher for the third time in the past five weeks.

Copper speculative bets have now gained by a total of +23,090 contracts over the past five weeks, going from a bearish net position of -14,156 contracts on March 14th to this week’s net position of +8,934 contracts. This week was the first time that net positions crossed over into bullish territory since February and Copper’s sentiment has been helped out by China’s economic reopening which uses the metal for many types of manufacturing and industry.

The Copper front-month futures price dipped this week but has been higher in the three of the past five weeks, continuing an uptrend since bottoming in July of 2022. Copper futures have gained by approximately 25 percent since that recent bottom in July and closed this week just below the $4.00 per pound major price level.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Apr-18-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Gold482,25428189,89361-216,4254026,53246
Silver158,3714626,59556-38,6564712,06133
Copper206,216478,93436-16,280607,34665
Palladium11,84882-5,637136,15189-51411
Platinum63,7945324,31972-28,202353,88320

 

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Platinum (72 percent) and Gold (61 percent) lead the metals markets this week.  Steel (59 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (13 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (60.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (61.9 percent)
Silver (56.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (52.1 percent)
Copper (36.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (24.6 percent)
Platinum (71.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (46.4 percent)
Palladium (13.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.2 percent)
Steel (59.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (58.4 percent)

 

Silver & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (49 percent) and Platinum (44 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (40 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Steel (-1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (40.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (37.0 percent)
Silver (49.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (33.9 percent)
Copper (14.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (1.6 percent)
Platinum (44.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (18.5 percent)
Palladium (13.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-9.7 percent)
Steel (-1.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (-4.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 189,893 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,852 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 192,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.925.610.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.670.55.0
– Net Position:189,893-216,42526,532
– Gross Longs:260,061123,49650,647
– Gross Shorts:70,168339,92124,115
– Long to Short Ratio:3.7 to 10.4 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.640.446.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:40.2-37.715.3

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 26,595 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,877 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,718 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.832.816.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.057.28.4
– Net Position:26,595-38,65612,061
– Gross Longs:62,96851,89125,438
– Gross Shorts:36,37390,54713,377
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.6 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.247.133.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:49.1-40.0-7.5

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,934 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 13,237 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.643.29.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.351.15.6
– Net Position:8,934-16,2807,346
– Gross Longs:67,26289,13118,851
– Gross Shorts:58,328105,41111,505
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.8 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.459.664.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.9-13.0-8.1

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,319 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,986 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,333 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:54.928.411.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.872.75.0
– Net Position:24,319-28,2023,883
– Gross Longs:35,02818,1477,076
– Gross Shorts:10,70946,3493,193
– Long to Short Ratio:3.3 to 10.4 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.735.220.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:44.3-40.02.3

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -5,637 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,073 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.167.49.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:63.715.513.5
– Net Position:-5,6376,151-514
– Gross Longs:1,9127,9881,084
– Gross Shorts:7,5491,8371,598
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 14.3 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.588.810.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.5-10.6-11.5

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,779 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 329 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,108 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.476.01.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.660.30.5
– Net Position:-4,7794,632147
– Gross Longs:3,67122,409303
– Gross Shorts:8,45017,777156
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.3 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.340.538.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.21.8-25.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Metals Opinions
19 Apr

Rage On

Source: Michael Ballanger  (4/17/23)

Michael Ballanger of GGM Advisory Inc. takes a look at the current state of the market and the gold and silver sector to tell you where he believes it is all headed. 

Cornering (a market): In finance, cornering the market consists of obtaining sufficient control of a particular stock, commodity, or other asset in an attempt to manipulate the market price. One definition of cornering the market is “having the greatest market share in a particular industry without having a monopoly.”

Anyone old enough to recall the late, great, stagflationary 70s was around to witness one of the truly great market “cornerings” of modern market history and one which was carried out in compliance with all laws and statutes set out by regulators in the 1970s.

It involved two Texas brothers, Herbert and Nelson “Bunker” Hunt, heirs to the multi-billion-dollar A.L. Hunt oil fortune, who made the determination that profligate spending by the Democrats for social programs to create “The Great Society” under Lyndon Johnston and continued by Republicans under Nixon with the Vietnam War would eventually, if not immediately, bankrupt the nation and debase the U.S. currency, which had been ongoing since 1971 with the termination of the Bretton Woods Agreement.

Silver Thursday

I was in university in the U.S. when the Dean of Finance of the Saint Louis U. business school went off on one of his legendary pre-lecture rants one morning, and it was always a “morning after” his weekly Thursday pub crawl on Friday morning at 8:00 a.m. — the first class of the day — as “The Doc” (Dr. Fred Yeager) — would fire up a Camel non-filter, sipping black coffee from a Styrofoam cup and launch into a “fire and brimstone” narrative on something the Fed or the Treasury was doing.

This time, it was a news headline of 1976 where it was first reported in the Wall Street Journal that a certain “Southern group” was amassing hundreds of thousands of ounces of silver which continued all through the late 70s until finally, after silver had charged from US$2 per ounce to over US$50 that the U.S. government decided they had had enough.

They came down with a sledgehammer-like strategy of moral suasion (urging Hunt’s creditors to withhold loans) and increased minimum maintenance margin levels, the combination of which choked off the Hunts’ ability to carry the massive trade and starting on March 27, 1980, the brokers carrying the position began a gargantuan liquidation that took silver from over US$50 to a shade above US$5 by June.

It was called “Silver Thursday.”

Despite a sincere desire to protect their wealth from the dangers of out-of-control government spending, the Hunts were trotted out as “Enemies of the State” and were relieved of hundreds of millions of dollars by a government and the infamous Wall Street “old boys club” that arbitrarily changed all of the rules and even fabricated new ones to fit their mission. Once the hammer came down, memories of the enrichment created for early players in the 70’s silver squeeze were forever etched in the collective psyches the world over, but it took until 2011 until silver once again approached US$50 per ounce in response to massively inflationary bailouts of the Wall Street banks.

With silver outperforming gold and the miners outperforming the metals . . .  I get a perfect set-up for a continuation move into summer of 2023 with new highs on the horizon.

Those very bankers, fearing the negative connotations of the spirited silver run being linked to outrageous Congressional favoritism over banks versus the public taxpayer, organized a brilliant wee-hours raid on the silver market when all of the Western traders were asleep and the “Sunday Night Massacre” of April 4, 2013, ushered in an epic crash taking the shiny metal’s price down through all support levels and into a bear market until late 2015.

While the 2011-2016 silver bear was painful, there was never any blatant evidence, such as materialized in 1979, that the government was going to intervene in the market. Instead, it took the shape and form of a classic Watergate Break-in type of crime.

No smoking guns were ever recovered from the 2013 pistol-whipping, but it smelled of government intervention with its trademark punctuality and savagery. Body bags were everywhere, and losses within the retail ranks were deep and widespread, but stocks went on to new highs day in and day out, further placating an investing public that was being trained in masterful Pavlovian fashion what happens when you invest in “high-risk assets like silver.”

So, here we are again in the midst of a strong, multi-month advance in the precious metals, with silver outperforming gold and the miners outperforming the metals, and that has been the case if I use as my starting point November 3, which was the date of the 2022 low for gold, I get a perfect set-up for a continuation move into summer of 2023 with new highs on the horizon.

If I take a second reading off the March 8 lows of five weeks ago, I get an even better technical picture with the PM miners and silver neck-and-neck and outperforming gold by a lengthy margin.

GDX and GDXJ 

VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX:NYSEARCA:)

I have ample exposure to gold and silver through physical ownership and by way of the junior portfolios.

But it has been almost three tears since I exited the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX:NYSEARCA:) after making one of the best calls in my career on March 16, 2020, at the exact days the precious metals all bottomed.

I exited the positions in August 2020, with GDX approaching US$44 per share.

Thirty months later, we have the perfect set-up for precious metals, and up til the recent decision to cut output by the producer nations, energy was moving in the miner’s favorite direction — down.

VanEck Junior Gold Miner ETF (GDXJ:NYSEArca), 

Today’s little hiccup was all profit-taking as silver’s RSI touched 79 briefly before closing out the week back below 70. Within the complex, silver needs to cool off for a few days, during which I will be buying back my GDX position, hopefully in the US$32-33 range, into an early-week pullback.

I will also be teeing up the VanEck Junior Gold Miner ETF (GDXJ:NYSEArca), and while it may appear “late,” it really isn’t on a fundamental basis.

The miners are all dirt cheap, but once we achieve escape velocity for gold above US$2,100, I see a doubling of both Senior and Junior Gold ETFs by Q1/2024.

That should hit home pretty hard because I have avoided these ETFs for what feels like a lifetime. (Subscribers will receive notifications next week as to price and strategy.)

Stocks

I get no fewer than twenty-five emails a day from services offering to help me “Navigate the Upcoming CRASH!” followed by pictures of some bombed-out war zone or children wandering in the night.

The entire world is preoccupied to the point of obsession with this pending Armageddon that is lurking somewhere just above the tree line, but for me, I cannot buy it. There are really bad places on this earth to call “HOME,” but unless you had the bad fortune of being born there, you could always leave.

I met an ultra-sound technician today that emigrated from northeast mainland China over ten years ago with his wife and mother, who gave up a general practitioner “M.D.” license to take a secondary profession in Canada.

I asked how he liked the move, and he said it was the best decision he had ever made despite the 50-hour work weeks helping out in off hours his wife’s laundry business. He was undoubtedly the most over-qualified medical technician in the history of the North Durham Medical Centre, and I walked away after a handshake and a smile, feeling pretty happy for the chap.

Oddly enough, that is how I feel about the SPX these days.

Bob Farrell Rule #9: “When all the experts and forecasts agree — something else is going to happen.”

On the topic of consensus, what is the most heavily-debated topic in a Wall Street boardroom these days? It is “When will the Fed pivot?” Thousands of guesses and thousands of theories camouflage the least debated topic, which is “Will there be a recession?”

Bob Farrell Rule #9: “When all the experts and forecasts agree — something else is going to happen.”

No one agrees on the “Fed Pivot” thing, but they all agree that there will be a recession and a really nasty one, so the only thing to banty about should be “How Bad?”

Well, Bob Farrell was a pretty good investor with a long, battle-tested track record, and I will go with his Rule #9, which would have me take the absolute unanimity of agreement over the pending recession, which falls into the category of “foregone conclusion,” verging upon “no-brainer” verging upon “Take it to the bank” and assume that a) there will be NO recession or b) there will be a recession, but stocks go UP, not DOWN, or c) the recession is not enough to cool off inflation and the old adage that I should “Never underestimate the replacement power of equities within an inflationary spiral” rings true.

Every CNBC Guest commentator, every podcast guru, and every armchair “investment strategist” is calling for new lows, and they all can cite technical and fundamental reasons for that event to occur.

And I say, “No way.”

Stocks just went through a month that had huge volumes of “smart money” exiting the bank stocks (Uncle Warren, too!), with commentators drawing comparisons to 2008 and 2001 and all boasting from the rooftops that they were positioned with “record cash” or adequately hedged” as March not only did not whimper into April, it rumbled into April knocking tables over and stopping traffic.

It is within earshot of the February highs, just under 4,200, and just out of the M4 range for the August highs at 4,325. We have the positive buy signal of the January Barometer, giving me not a guarantee of an up year but a historical probability of one. And I’ll take that, any day, all day.

Stocks are climbing that very annoying “Wall of Worry” like 1982 and 1988 and 2009 and 2020, where prognosticators gnash and gnarl their incisors, crying in despair as margin calls swarm their inboxes.

I learned after many years and hundreds of thousands of lost dollars that stocks to whatever the hell they choose to, and there is no preordained rule that says that the number of hours you spend on “due diligence” will ensure a favorable outcome. Stocks have a personality, and they have memory muscles far more hardened than anything you or I possess, so when they go against you, learn to respect the mortal danger inherent in the wounded animal.

Stocks gave us a little “growl” in March; make damn sure you are on the right side of the “roar” in April.

 

Michael Ballanger Disclaimer:

This letter makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents my views and replicates trades that I am making but nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. I accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this letter. Options and junior mining stocks contain a high level of risk that may result in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are suitable for experienced and professional investors and traders only. One should be familiar with the risks involved in junior mining and options trading and we recommend consulting a financial adviser if you feel you do not understand the risks involved.

Disclosures:

1) Michael J. Ballanger: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of the following companies mentioned in this article: None. I personally am, or members of my immediate household or family are, paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.

2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. As of the date of this article, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports has a consulting relationship with: None. Please click here for more information.

3) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.

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Metals Opinions
15 Apr

COT Metals Speculators raise their Silver bets for 5th week to a 10-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Silver with a rise of 2,435 contracts this week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-2,471 contracts) with Platinum (-2,090 contracts), Copper (-1,349 contracts), Steel (-970 contracts) and Palladium (-427 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Silver speculator bets rise for 5th week to 10-week high

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the continued bullishness for the Silver speculative positions. The large speculator position in Silver futures climbed this week for a fifth straight week. Silver spec bets have now jumped by a total of +31,500 contracts over the past five weeks. This recent speculator sentiment bump has taken the Silver position from a total of -1,219 contracts on March 14th to a total of +23,718 contracts this week, leveling at the most bullish standing for Silver in ten weeks.

The Silver futures price has continued to enjoy a bullish run and has now increased for five consecutive weeks. The futures price has risen by over 20 percent in these past five weeks and touched the highest level since last April before closing this week at almost $25.50.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Apr-11-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Gold476,56725192,74562-216,5484023,80340
Silver142,6992923,71852-36,2555012,53736
Copper209,50150-4,30325-1,217725,52053
Palladium12,29088-7,07307,491100-41817
Platinum60,1154113,33346-18,511555,17837

 

Strength Scores led by Gold & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (62 percent) and Steel (58 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Palladium (0.2 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (61.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (63.0 percent)
Silver (52.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (48.6 percent)
Copper (24.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (25.8 percent)
Platinum (46.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (51.2 percent)
Palladium (0.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (4.2 percent)
Steel (58.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (61.2 percent)

 

Gold & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (37 percent) and Silver (34 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Platinum (18.5 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-10 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-4 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (37.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (38.8 percent)
Silver (33.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (16.2 percent)
Copper (1.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (-4.5 percent)
Platinum (18.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (28.9 percent)
Palladium (-9.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-13.5 percent)
Steel (-4.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (0.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 192,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,471 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 195,216 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:54.625.110.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.170.65.3
– Net Position:192,745-216,54823,803
– Gross Longs:260,165119,71049,102
– Gross Shorts:67,420336,25825,299
– Long to Short Ratio:3.9 to 10.4 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.940.339.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:37.0-34.412.3

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,718 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,435 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,283 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.0 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.033.417.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.358.88.9
– Net Position:23,718-36,25512,537
– Gross Longs:55,58347,62925,218
– Gross Shorts:31,86583,88412,681
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.6 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.150.036.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.9-28.0-3.7

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,954 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.843.69.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.844.26.3
– Net Position:-4,303-1,2175,520
– Gross Longs:56,06391,39918,793
– Gross Shorts:60,36692,61613,273
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.672.453.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.6-1.0-3.5

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 13,333 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,090 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,423 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.234.512.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.065.34.0
– Net Position:13,333-18,5115,178
– Gross Longs:29,57020,7687,569
– Gross Shorts:16,23739,2792,391
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.5 to 13.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.455.237.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.5-17.98.0

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,073 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -427 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,646 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.971.710.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:69.510.814.1
– Net Position:-7,0737,491-418
– Gross Longs:1,4638,8141,319
– Gross Shorts:8,5361,3231,737
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 16.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.2100.016.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.78.24.2

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -5,108 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -970 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,138 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.076.41.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.859.10.6
– Net Position:-5,1084,951157
– Gross Longs:3,42821,857317
– Gross Shorts:8,53616,906160
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.3 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.441.439.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.14.4-10.3

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Metals Opinions
14 Apr

Gold rises as Treasury yields fall on weakening US inflation

By JustMarkets 

The US stock indices mostly rose yesterday. At the close of trading, Dow Jones (US30) was up by 1.14%, and S&P 500 (US500) increased by 1.33%. NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.99%.

The US jobless claims rose to 239,000. This is the first increase in 3 weeks. Jobless claims in February fell to their lowest level since 2021, and labor force participation rose in March to its highest level in three years. This data indicates that the labor market is starting to weaken. The Producer Price Index, which shows the inflation rate between factories and factories, fell by 0.5% in the last month, indicating lower inflationary pressures in the US. Analysts believe the Federal Reserve may take a less aggressive stance on the monetary policy along with falling overall inflation. Minutes from the Fed’s March meeting showed that the Central Bank expects recent bank turmoil to trigger a “soft recession” later this year.

Today is the start of the US reporting season. JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM), Citigroup Inc (C), and Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) will release quarterly results before trading opens.

Equity markets in Europe mostly rallied yesterday. By the end of the day, German DAX (DE30) gained 0.16%, French CAC 40 (FR40) added 1.13%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 0.30%, British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positively by 0.24%.

Inflationary pressures in Germany are starting to ease. The latest data showed that consumer prices declined from 8.7% to 7.4% year-on-year. Today the inflation data will be released by France and Spain. And if there is also a decline there, the ECB may well lower the rate hike to 0.25%.

Oil prices lost some of their upward momentum after OPEC warned that a recession could hurt the oil market. In a report released on Thursday, OPEC noted the risks of lower summer oil demand amid production cuts announced this month by oil producers. The report also indicated that oil stocks look set to increase in the coming months and that global growth is facing a number of challenges.

Gold is approaching a record high. Yesterday’s session high was $2063.15, less than $16 below the historic high of nearly $2080 set by Comex Gold in August 2020. The rise in gold prices on Thursday came after the US producer price index fell to its highest in almost three years, reinforcing the notion that inflationary pressures are easing and markets expect an end to rate hikes.

Asian markets were also rising yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.26%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.19%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) increased by 0.17%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) gained 0.09%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) closed negative 0.27%.

China’s exports unexpectedly rose by 14.8% y/y in March, a sharp deviation from market forecasts of a 7% contraction. This also contrasts with the downward export trend over the last five months. Imports fell slightly by 1.4% but still recorded a 15.3% year-on-year increase. The export jump pushes the trade balance up, supporting China’s GDP in the first quarter.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) was the latest in a growing list of central banks to suspend future interest rate hikes. The move also came after data showed Singapore’s economy slowed more than expected in the first quarter of 2023.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said he expects the global economy to recover from a period of slowdown, which will boost domestic wages, keeping the bank’s economic outlook optimistic. Investors will be focused on the first Bank of Japan policy meeting chaired by Ueda on 27-28 April, when the board will present fresh quarterly growth and inflation forecasts for fiscal 2025.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,146.22 +54.27 (+1.33%)

Dow Jones (US30)34,029.69 +383.19 (+1.14%)

DAX (DE40) 15,729.46 +25.86 (+0.16%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,824.84 +39.12 (+0.50%)

USD Index 101.00 −0.50 (−0.49%)

Important events for today:
  • – Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
  • – French Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Spain Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
  • – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Metals
10 Apr

Trade Of The Week: Another Volatile Week For Gold?

By ForexTime

Gold prices shed as much as 1% on Monday morning after closing above the psychological $2000 level last week. Prices later recovered thanks to a weaker dollar and heightened geopolitical tensions over Taiwan.

Appetite for the precious metal was hit by last Friday’s goldilocks US jobs report which boosted bets around the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points in May. US payrolls increased by 236k in March, printing in line with expectations while the unemployment rate dropped to near-record lows of 3.5%. The upwardly revised payrolls figure for February of 326k was the icing on the cake, as the overall jobs report eased concerns that the world’s largest economy is heading for a recession. Given how this development may offer support to the dollar and feed Fed hike expectations, gold bulls could be caged in the short term.

Nevertheless, gold prices have been on a tear over the past few weeks as the horrible combination of banking fears and recession concerns fuelled risk aversion. After securing a weekly close above the $2000 level for the first time since August 2020, the key question is whether bulls have what it takes to push prices to the all-time high at $2075.47. While the fundamentals favour further upside, bears could be inspired by the renewed focus on inflation as the banking turmoil cools. On the technical front, the relative strength index (RSI) is signaling that prices are overbought on both the daily and weekly timeframe.

Taking a quick peek at the technical picture, gold remains bullish with the weekly close above the $2000 level signaling further upside. However, anything could be on the table given how prices are flirting close to the 70 level on its 14-week RS1.

The lowdown….

The dollar found itself under renewed selling pressure early last week after disappointing economic data fuelled recession fears and slashed Fed hike bets.

This potent combination, along with falling Treasury yields was enough to propel gold way above the psychological $2000 level on Tuesday with prices reaching their highest level since March 2022 at $2032 mid-week. Gold struggled to preserve its bullish momentum on Thursday thanks to technical forces, with a stabilizing dollar amid risk aversion dragging prices back toward $2000. The recent price action re-confirms that this psychological level remains a pivotal point for bulls and bears. Expect the pending economic reports and risk events to influence whether gold concludes the week above or below this level.

All eyes on US CPI & Fed minutes 

It will be wise to keep an eye on the US CPI report published on Wednesday.

Inflation in the United States is projected to slow 5.2% in March year-on-year compared to the 6% figure witnessed in February. If expectations match reality, this will mark the ninth consecutive decline in inflation. However, all eyes will be on the Core CPI readings which exclude more volatile items such as food and energy. Core inflation year-on-year is expected to rise 5.6% in March compared to 5.5% in the previous month. Ultimately, persistent signs of easing inflationary pressures in the world’s largest economy may fuel speculation around the Fed pausing rate hikes sooner than expected. This could boost appetite for zero-yielding gold, pushing prices back towards $2032 and beyond.

Wednesday also sees the release of the Fed meeting minutes which concluded a 25-basis point rate hike. All eyes will be on the language of the minutes and whether any fresh clues are offered on future Fed rate moves. If the minutes strike a dovish tone similar to the March meeting, this could reinforce market expectations around the Fed’s hiking cycle nearing an end.

Other than the highly anticipated US CPI report and Fed meeting, there are key speeches from Fed officials and key economic data throughout the week that could influence gold prices. On the geopolitical front, heightened tensions around the Taiwan Strait has the potential to fuel risk aversion – supporting safe-haven assets.

Is gold heading for the all-time high?

Gold remains bullish on the daily charts as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows. However, prices seem to be flirting around overbought conditions on the RSI. The weekly close above $2000 could encourage an incline back toward $2032. Beyond this point, the next levels of interest are $2070 and $2075. Should prices slip back under $2000, gold could retest $1950 and $1900, respectively.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Metals
08 Apr

COT Metals: Gold and Silver Speculator positions continue to move higher

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (13,586 contracts) with Silver (7,922 contracts), Platinum (5,049 contracts), Palladium (118 contracts) and Steel (1,117 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The market with declines in speculator bets for the week was Copper (-1,409 contracts).

Gold and Silver Speculator positions continue to move higher

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the continued rise in bets for the Gold and Silver speculative positions.

The large speculator position in Gold futures rose this week for a fourth straight week and for the sixth time out of the past seven weeks. Gold speculator bets have now jumped by a total of +96,742 contracts over just the past four weeks going from a total net position of +98,474
contracts on March 7th to a total of +195,216 contracts this week.

Meanwhile, the Silver speculator positions have also risen for four straight weeks and have gained by a total of +29,065 contracts over that four-week period. These gains have taken the Silver position out of an overall bearish level of -7,782 contracts on March 7th to a total of +21,283 contracts this week (the most bullish level since January 31st).

The Gold and Silver futures prices have also been on the rise as well. The Gold futures front month price closed this week at approximately the $2,026 level which is the highest weekly close since August 3rd of 2020. Gold is now up over 25 percent since October.

Silver futures prices have gained for four straight weeks and closed this week above $25, the highest level since April of 2022. Silver prices are up by over 40 percent from the most recent cycle low in late-August of 2022.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Apr-04-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Gold476,59225195,21663-218,2504023,03438
Silver131,2101621,28349-31,4355610,15223
Copper218,68757-2,95426-4,897697,85168
Palladium11,82082-6,64647,01197-36520
Platinum59,1563815,42351-19,201543,77819

 

Strength Scores led by Gold & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (63 percent) and Steel (61 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (4 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (4 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (63.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (57.0 percent)
Silver (48.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (37.3 percent)
Copper (25.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (27.0 percent)
Platinum (51.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (39.5 percent)
Palladium (4.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (3.1 percent)
Steel (61.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (57.9 percent)

 

Gold & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (39 percent) and Platinum (29 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (38.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (33.5 percent)
Silver (16.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (2.6 percent)
Copper (-4.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (3.5 percent)
Platinum (28.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (10.1 percent)
Palladium (-13.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-16.4 percent)
Steel (0.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (-3.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 195,216 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 13,586 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 181,630 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:55.824.510.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.970.35.4
– Net Position:195,216-218,25023,034
– Gross Longs:266,164116,86948,740
– Gross Shorts:70,948335,11925,706
– Long to Short Ratio:3.8 to 10.3 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.039.737.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:38.8-34.42.0

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 21,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,922 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,361 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.434.218.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.158.210.7
– Net Position:21,283-31,43510,152
– Gross Longs:50,32744,93624,209
– Gross Shorts:29,04476,37114,057
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.6 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.655.822.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.2-10.2-16.8

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,954 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,545 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.742.78.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.045.05.3
– Net Position:-2,954-4,8977,851
– Gross Longs:60,53893,46519,483
– Gross Shorts:63,49298,36211,632
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.869.368.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.53.18.8

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 15,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,049 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,374 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:50.435.011.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.467.55.2
– Net Position:15,423-19,2013,778
– Gross Longs:29,84120,7086,873
– Gross Shorts:14,41839,9093,095
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.5 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.253.818.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:28.9-22.3-22.8

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -6,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 118 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,764 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.171.510.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:69.312.213.9
– Net Position:-6,6467,011-365
– Gross Longs:1,5518,4501,279
– Gross Shorts:8,1971,4391,644
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 15.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.296.619.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.512.3-0.1

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,138 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,117 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,255 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.575.31.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.261.30.5
– Net Position:-4,1383,958180
– Gross Longs:3,53221,243334
– Gross Shorts:7,67017,285154
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.238.542.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.20.2-18.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Metals Opinions
03 Apr

Powerful Breakout This Month Bodes Well for Entire Sector

Source: Clive Maund  (3/31/23)

Technical analyst Clive Maund reviews Osisko Gold Royalties’ long-term and 1-year charts to explain why he believes this company is a Buy.

My attention was drawn to Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd. (OR:TSX; OR:NYSE) by a number of bullish articles on it, in particular one by Adrian Day that was posted a few days before its major high-volume breakout on the 17th.

It has risen significantly this month and while we are not normally minded to chase after stocks that have already taken off higher, I consider it worth bringing it to your attention here because of the strong bullish implications of this breakout which is believed to mark the start of a major bull market in Osisko for reasons that will soon become apparent which has important implications for the sector as a whole, it being a gold royalty company.

It very quickly becomes clear why the breakout in Osisko this month was so significant when we look at its long-term chart going back to 2014, for here we see that it has finally broken out above the strong resistance at a line of tops that goes back to 2015, on its eighth attempt to do so, so clearly this was an important technical development that in all probability marks the start of a major bull market.

Source: Bigcharts.com

On its 1-year chart, we can see recent action in much more detail. The most important point to note is the very high volume on the breakout this month on the 17th. This high volume is a sign that the breakout is genuine.

Everything about this chart is bullish — the trend is up with moving averages in bullish alignment, momentum positive, and the strong upside volume this month driving the On-balance Volume line higher in a robust manner.

However, there is no arguing the fact that after its strong rise this month which has opened up a considerable gap with its moving averages, it is short-term overbought, but that said this breakout was so significant that it has created support in the CA$18 – CA$19 zone (the former resistance level) which should now serve to put a floor under the price on any reaction.

Source: Bigcharts.com

The main point is that the breakout this month was of such importance that it is thought to mark the start of a major bullmarket in Osisko that will eventually result in much higher prices, and this should hardly be surprising considering the way that the financial system is “flying apart” in a manner that can be expected to result in vastly higher prices for gold and silver which most investors at this time would probably consider to be in the realms of fantasy, even many of you reading this.

The conclusion is that Osisko Gold Royalties has just made a major breakout that promises much higher prices in the future for it and not just that, but much higher prices ahead for gold and silver themselves. It is rated a strong conservative buy on all minor dips.

Osisko Gold Royalties’ website.

Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd. closed for trading at CA$21.10, $15.58 at 2.45 pm EDT on March 30, 2023.

 

CliveMaund.com Disclosures

The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund’s opinions on the market and stocks can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Advisor operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

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