Metals

Archive for Metals – Page 14

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Copper, Silver & Steel

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper, Silver & Steel

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (5,475 contracts) with Silver (4,744 contracts), Steel (4,618 contracts) and Palladium (943 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The two markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-15,830 contracts) and with Platinum (-2,193 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (90 percent) and Silver (85 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (82 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (61 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently but is over the 50-percent or the midpoint level for the past 3-years.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (82.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (88.3 percent)
Silver (85.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (79.0 percent)
Copper (52.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (47.6 percent)
Platinum (71.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (76.8 percent)
Palladium (60.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (53.8 percent)
Steel (89.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (68.7 percent)

Palladium & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (26 percent) and Steel (25 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

There were no markets this week with negative trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (5.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (14.1 percent)
Silver (17.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (14.9 percent)
Copper (18.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (12.7 percent)
Platinum (13.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (47.5 percent)
Palladium (25.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (15.4 percent)
Steel (24.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (12.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 268,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,830 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 284,504 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.0	13.9	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.5	70.5	4.5
– Net Position:	268,674	-296,071	27,397
– Gross Longs:	334,043	72,393	50,882
– Gross Shorts:	65,369	368,464	23,485
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.3	15.7	69.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.2	-6.3	13.2

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 54,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,744 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,710 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.9	20.7	18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	63.0	8.0
– Net Position:	54,454	-71,960	17,506
– Gross Longs:	84,814	35,237	31,187
– Gross Shorts:	30,360	107,197	13,681
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.0	14.8	55.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.1	-17.5	11.1

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 20,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.6	30.8	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.1	41.0	5.7
– Net Position:	20,896	-24,842	3,946
– Gross Longs:	104,032	75,169	17,858
– Gross Shorts:	83,136	100,011	13,912
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.7	49.0	41.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.8	-16.3	-7.2

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 23,537 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,193 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,730 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.6	16.1	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.0	47.4	5.9
– Net Position:	23,537	-27,658	4,121
– Gross Longs:	58,829	14,208	9,361
– Gross Shorts:	35,292	41,866	5,240
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.6	30.9	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.5	-12.4	-2.4

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,631 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,574 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.6	39.0	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.3	16.1	6.7
– Net Position:	-5,631	4,658	973
– Gross Longs:	7,021	7,922	2,330
– Gross Shorts:	12,652	3,264	1,357
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.4 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.7	37.2	80.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.5	-24.5	-1.9

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 2,855 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,618 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,763 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.7	58.7	1.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	68.3	0.5
– Net Position:	2,855	-3,034	179
– Gross Longs:	9,630	18,379	348
– Gross Shorts:	6,775	21,413	169
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.8	10.5	52.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.8	-25.7	19.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

19 Feb

Gold to extend its rally as market conditions remain favourable

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold remains steady at 2,930 USD per troy ounce on Wednesday, hovering near last week’s record high of 2,940 USD. Ongoing concerns over US trade tariffs and global uncertainties continue to drive demand for safe-haven assets.

Key factors driving Gold prices

Escalating US trade tensions– On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on automobiles, further escalating global trade disputes. Additional tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals have also been proposed, intensifying market concerns. Last week, Trump suggested these auto tariffs could take effect by 2 April.
US foreign policy shifts– Reports indicate that the White House may be considering lifting sanctions on Russia as part of diplomatic negotiations, adding to global market uncertainty.
Federal Reserve’s cautious stance– San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly reiterated that inflation remains uneven, supporting the Fed’s view that interest rates should remain unchanged for now. This aligns with the Fed’s earlier signals of maintaining a tight monetary policy, which could keep long-term inflation risks alive, indirectly supporting Gold prices.
Increased bullion demand– Gold shipments from Singapore to the US surged to a three-year high in January, indicating potential disruptions in bullion trading due to price differentials. This signals strong demand and market inefficiencies, contributing to rising gold prices.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

On the H4 chart, Gold has formed a consolidation range around 2,911 USD, extending its gains to 2,939 USD. A short-term pullback to 2,911 USD (testing support from above) is possible before the next rally. If Gold breaks higher, the next target will be 2,960 USD. After reaching this level, a correction towards 2,844 USD could follow. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and sharply upwards, confirming strong bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, Gold is forming a growth wave towards 2,946 USD. After reaching this level, a minor correction to 2,911 USD could occur before a new bullish wave extends towards 2,960 USD. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this outlook, with its signal line below 50 and trending towards 20, indicating a potential correction before the next leg higher. A subsequent rebound towards 80 would confirm further upside potential.

Conclusion

Gold maintains a firmly bullish outlook, supported by geopolitical risks, trade war concerns, and strong demand. While short-term corrections are likely, technical indicators support a continued rally towards 2,960 USD. Traders will closely monitor further developments in US trade policy and Fed monetary signals, as these will shape the next move in Gold prices.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals

16 Feb

Speculator Extremes: Steel, US Treasuries & Yen lead weekly Bullish Bets

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on February 11th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Steel speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 21.5 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 2,855 net contracts this week with a rise of 4,618 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

US Treasury Bond

The US Treasury Bond speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The US Treasury Bond speculator level is now at a 98.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 27.5 this week. The speculator position registered 44,001 net contracts this week with a weekly jump by 48,928 contracts in speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Japanese Yen speculator level resides at a 95.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 25.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 54,615 net contracts this week with a surged by 35,847 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is at a 90.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 9.1 this week. The overall speculator position was 113,424 net contracts this week with a dip of -3,015 contracts in the speculator bets.

Gold

The Gold speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Gold speculator level sits at a 88.3 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 14.1 this week.

The speculator position was 284,504 net contracts this week with a decline of -18,004 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 2.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -22.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -26,526 net contracts this week with an increase of 6,583 contracts in the speculator bets.

Euro

The Euro speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Euro speculator level is at a 4.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 2.0 this week. The speculator position was -64,425 net contracts this week with a decrease of -5,811 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Cotton speculator level resides at a 5.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -42,565 net contracts this week with a rise of 8,202 contracts in the speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 6.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -1.2 this week. The speculator position was -49,336 net contracts this week with a small dip of -246 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 6.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.2 this week. The speculator position was -1,861,735 net contracts this week with an advance by 65,931 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

16 Feb

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led by Platinum, Copper & Steel

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum, Copper & Steel

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (6,755 contracts) with Copper (5,475 contracts) and Steel (4,618 contracts) also showing higher weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-18,004 contracts), Silver (-651 contracts) and with Palladium (-450 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (100 percent) and Gold (88 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Silver (79.0 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Copper (53 percent) and Palladium (54 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently but are above their 3-year midpoint (50 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (88.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (95.1 percent)
Silver (79.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (79.8 percent)
Copper (52.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (47.6 percent)
Platinum (76.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (60.8 percent)
Palladium (53.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (57.1 percent)
Steel (100.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (81.7 percent)

Platinum & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (47 percent) and Steel (22 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Palladium (15 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

There are no downside trend scores this week.

Move Statistics:
Gold (14.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (20.8 percent)
Silver (14.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (12.9 percent)
Copper (18.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (12.7 percent)
Platinum (47.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (7.9 percent)
Palladium (15.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (14.4 percent)
Steel (21.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (11.1 percent)