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COT Week 24 Charts: Metals Speculator bets lower as Gold & Copper bets drop

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

COT Metals market speculator bets were lower this week as all five of the metals markets we cover had lower positioning this week. Leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Gold (-20,670 contracts) and Copper (-10,083 contracts) with Platinum (-3,719 contracts), Silver (-3,399 contracts) and Palladium (-596 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting this week’s COT metals data was the further weakness in bullish bets for the Gold futures contracts. Gold speculators sharply dropped their bullish bets by -20,670 contracts this week and have now seen lower positions for two out of three weeks as well as for the seventh time in the past nine weeks. Over the nine-week time-frame, Gold speculator bets have fallen by a total of -99,689 contracts, going from +254,297 net positions on April 12th to +154,598 net positions this week. These decreases have brought the current level down to the least bullish standing of the past one hundred and fifty-nine weeks, dating back to May 28th of 2019.

Despite the speculator weakness, the Gold futures price has not fallen too sharply although prices have cooled off since hitting an almost two-year high of $2,078 on March 8th. The Gold price currently remains trading in its range between approximately $1,800 and $1,884 that has prevailed since early in May and over the longer-term, remains in an uptrend.

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Copper (32.4 percent) is the leading pack this week although this score is just slightly above a extreme bearish score. All the other markets are currently in extreme bearish levels (below 20 percent) as speculator sentiment among the metals is very weak at the moment.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Platinum (5.4 percent) and Copper (1.3 percent) are the only two metals with rising trend scores. Gold and Silver are neck and neck for leading the trends to the downside with scores of -22.4 percent (Gold) and -22 percent (Silver), respectively, while Platinum (-7.3 percent) also has a negative trend score for the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-14-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,715,674	0	302,946	0	-341,654	100	38,708	70
Gold	497,456	13	154,598	0	-178,569	100	23,971	15
Silver	151,978	18	14,005	0	-22,047	100	8,042	0
Copper	187,247	17	-13,797	32	10,287	67	3,510	46
Palladium	7,740	6	-4,057	0	4,354	100	-297	27
Platinum	66,613	33	2,214	7	-6,793	96	4,579	26
Natural Gas	1,053,265	0	-123,485	42	74,310	54	49,175	96
Brent	171,026	17	-36,389	50	34,601	51	1,788	33
Heating Oil	268,199	23	8,475	55	-28,686	41	20,211	68
Soybeans	754,428	34	182,667	70	-155,663	37	-27,004	25
Corn	1,521,565	25	399,775	81	-344,196	23	-55,579	11
Coffee	202,656	0	46,885	79	-48,399	25	1,514	5
Sugar	800,806	1	170,483	72	-198,006	31	27,523	42
Wheat	336,890	13	20,435	46	-18,089	34	-2,346	98

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 154,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -20,670 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 175,268 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.6	24.5	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	60.4	4.4
– Net Position:	154,598	-178,569	23,971
– Gross Longs:	266,596	121,926	45,726
– Gross Shorts:	111,998	300,495	21,755
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	14.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.4	25.7	-31.1

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 14,005 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,404 net contracts.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.6	39.6	16.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.4	54.1	10.7
– Net Position:	14,005	-22,047	8,042
– Gross Longs:	57,216	60,161	24,268
– Gross Shorts:	43,211	82,208	16,226
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.0	21.9	-16.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -13,797 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,083 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,714 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	55.2	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.6	49.7	6.9
– Net Position:	-13,797	10,287	3,510
– Gross Longs:	51,077	103,433	16,449
– Gross Shorts:	64,874	93,146	12,939
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.4	66.5	45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.3	0.1	-11.8

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 2,214 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,719 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,933 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.7	42.3	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.3	52.5	6.0
– Net Position:	2,214	-6,793	4,579
– Gross Longs:	25,085	28,194	8,597
– Gross Shorts:	22,871	34,987	4,018
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.5	95.7	25.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.4	-4.3	-8.8

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,057 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -596 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,461 net contracts.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.5	71.8	14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.9	15.5	18.1
– Net Position:	-4,057	4,354	-297
– Gross Longs:	1,045	5,555	1,105
– Gross Shorts:	5,102	1,201	1,402
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	26.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	10.7	-34.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

12 Jun

COT Week 23 Charts: Forex Speculators Positions mostly higher led by Canadian dollar & Swiss franc

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

COT Currencies market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for currency markets was the Canadian dollar (5,945 contracts) and the Swiss franc (4,326 contracts) with the British pound sterling (3,295 contracts), Japanese yen (2,793 contracts), Brazil real (1,389 contracts), Australian dollar (786 contracts), US Dollar Index (400 contracts) and Bitcoin (87 contracts) also showing a positive week.

Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Mexican peso (-2,723 contracts) and Euro (-1,729 contracts) with New Zealand dollar (-1,047 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators Notes:

US Dollar Index speculator bets have continued their upward climb in four out of the past five weeks as well as nine out of the past twelve weeks. USD Index remains in an extreme-bullish strength level and is very close (currently +37,938 contracts) to the highest net speculator position (+39,078 contracts on January 4th) of this recent bullish cycle, emphasizing the strong speculator bias.
The Euro speculator position saw a pullback this week (-1,729 contracts) after huge gains in the previous three weeks (+58,650 contracts). Speculator sentiment is still pretty strong currently (+50,543 contracts) despite a very weak exchange rate (EURUSD at 1.0524 to close the week) and weak outlook for the Eurozone economy with rising inflation.
British pound sterling speculator sentiment has crumbled in the past few months. The net speculator position managed to poke its head above its negative bias on February 15th with a total of +2,237 net contracts but sentiment has deteriorated since. From February 22nd to this week, speculator bets have dropped by a total of -73,047 contracts and recently hit a 139-week low on May 24th, the lowest level of speculator sentiment dating back to September of 2019.
Japanese yen speculator positions are the most bearish of the major currencies just under -100,000 contracts. The USDJPY exchange rate is at a 20-year high and there has been no sign that the BOJ is interest in raising interest rates while other central banks commit to higher rates. These factors seem to say that the rout of the yen will continue ahead for some time (but how far can it go?).
Commodity currency speculator bets are on the defensive lately. Australian dollar spec bets have fallen in five out of the past six weeks.
Canadian dollar bets are now in bearish territory for a 5th straight week.
New Zealand dollar speculator positions have declined in six out of the past seven weeks and the net position has now fallen to the lowest level since March of 2020

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Brazilian Real, US Dollar Index and Bitcoin are all in extreme-bullish levels at the current moment. On the opposite end of the extreme spectrum, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc are very weak in relative speculator sentiment and sit in the extreme-bearish levels.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the commodity currencies have been losing sentiment over the last six weeks. The Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the New Zealand dollar have all had changes of at least -18.8 percent in their strength scores with the New Zealand dollar leading the decline with a -33.3 percent drop in six weeks. The US Dollar Index, Euro and Mexican Peso have had small but rising scores over the past six weeks.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-07-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	65,163	100	37,938	91	-41,863	5	3,925	59
EUR	730,667	95	50,543	51	-88,189	51	37,646	37
GBP	258,623	76	-70,810	23	80,465	77	-9,655	36
JPY	266,054	100	-91,646	12	109,109	89	-17,463	18
CHF	49,794	41	-16,132	16	27,216	87	-11,084	20
CAD	167,373	42	-1,062	40	-13,401	58	14,463	59
AUD	166,422	57	-47,896	40	47,413	54	483	54
NZD	63,540	70	-19,771	38	22,681	65	-2,910	19
MXN	248,184	72	32,726	41	-38,117	57	5,391	66
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	72,371	70	46,705	96	-48,954	4	2,249	91
Bitcoin	10,990	58	490	93	-529	0	39	14

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 37,938 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,538 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	85.1	3.2	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.9	67.5	2.8
– Net Position:	37,938	-41,863	3,925
– Gross Longs:	55,460	2,090	5,780
– Gross Shorts:	17,522	43,953	1,855
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.0 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.2	5.0	59.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.0	-8.8	13.4

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 50,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,729 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,272 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.5	50.0	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.6	62.1	7.3
– Net Position:	50,543	-88,189	37,646
– Gross Longs:	230,248	365,628	90,978
– Gross Shorts:	179,705	453,817	53,332
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.5	51.0	36.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-11.9	22.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -70,810 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,105 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	74.1	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.8	43.0	12.1
– Net Position:	-70,810	80,465	-9,655
– Gross Longs:	34,618	191,742	21,602
– Gross Shorts:	105,428	111,277	31,257
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.0	77.3	35.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.9	-4.4	17.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -91,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,793 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,439 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	79.3	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.4	38.3	15.3
– Net Position:	-91,646	109,109	-17,463
– Gross Longs:	18,466	210,889	23,226
– Gross Shorts:	110,112	101,780	40,689
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.4	88.9	18.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.4	-2.8	3.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -16,132 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,326 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,458 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.2	69.3	18.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.6	14.6	41.1
– Net Position:	-16,132	27,216	-11,084
– Gross Longs:	2,609	34,494	9,378
– Gross Shorts:	18,741	7,278	20,462
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	4.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.6	86.9	20.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	2.4	6.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,062 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,945 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,007 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.5	44.2	22.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	52.2	13.7
– Net Position:	-1,062	-13,401	14,463
– Gross Longs:	39,288	74,044	37,463
– Gross Shorts:	40,350	87,445	23,000
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.2	57.6	58.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.8	14.2	9.7

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -47,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 786 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,682 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	59.9	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.8	31.4	14.2
– Net Position:	-47,896	47,413	483
– Gross Longs:	31,720	99,747	24,197
– Gross Shorts:	79,616	52,334	23,714
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.4	54.3	53.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.8	13.8	4.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -19,771 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,047 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,724 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	69.1	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.5	33.4	8.6
– Net Position:	-19,771	22,681	-2,910
– Gross Longs:	12,310	43,890	2,538
– Gross Shorts:	32,081	21,209	5,448
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.1	65.4	18.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.3	31.2	-4.3

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 32,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,449 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.0	35.4	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.8	50.8	1.2
– Net Position:	32,726	-38,117	5,391
– Gross Longs:	119,162	87,884	8,441
– Gross Shorts:	86,436	126,001	3,050
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.3	56.9	65.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.4	-6.1	8.3

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 46,705 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,389 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,316 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.1	13.5	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	81.2	2.3
– Net Position:	46,705	-48,954	2,249
– Gross Longs:	58,657	9,780	3,931
– Gross Shorts:	11,952	58,734	1,682
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.9 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.3	3.5	91.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-0.2	4.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 87 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 403 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.5	1.5	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	77.1	6.4	9.3
– Net Position:	490	-529	39
– Gross Longs:	8,959	169	1,063
– Gross Shorts:	8,469	698	1,024
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.2	21.6	13.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.5	-6.4	0.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Forex and Currency News investing Opinions

04 Jun

Euro Currency Speculators continue to boost their bullish bets for 4th Week

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT currency data was the further gains in bullish bets for the Euro currency futures contracts. Euro speculators boosted their bullish bets for a fourth straight week this week and for the sixth time in the past ten weeks. Over the past four-week time-frame, Euro bets have risen by a total of +58,650 contracts, going from -6,378 net positions on May 3rd to a total of +52,272 net positions this week. This week marks the highest Euro speculator standing in the past twelve weeks.

The recent improvement in Euro positions has taken place with a very strong change in sentiment as just four weeks ago the overall position had fallen into bearish territory. The Euro sentiment has been so bad that analysts have been making predictions for an inevitable decline of the Euro into parity versus the dollar. However, recently there has been rising expectations that the European Central Bank will be more hawkish towards interest rates in the near future (despite the weak outlook for EU GDP growth) and will end their negative interest rate policy.

Over the past few weeks, the EUR/USD exchange rate has rebounded after falling to a multi-year low of 1.0350 in early May. This week the EUR/USD hit a weekly high of 1.0787 before closing at the 1.0719 exchange rate.

Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Euro (13,342 contracts), Brazil real (6,602 contracts), British pound sterling (6,267 contracts), Canadian dollar (5,680 contracts), Mexican peso (5,657 contracts), Japanese yen (5,005 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (597 contracts).

The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-501 contracts), Australian dollar (-3,236 contracts), Swiss franc (-785 contracts) and Bitcoin (-446 contracts).

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that most of the currency markets are below their midpoint (50 percent) of the last 3 years. The Brazil Real, US Dollar Index and Bitcoin are currently in extreme bullish levels.

Strength score trends (or move index, that show 6-week changes in strength scores) shows the recent strong weakness in the commodity currencies (AUD, NZD and CAD) as well as the Swiss franc.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-31-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	63,863	98	37,538	91	-41,327	6	3,789	58
EUR	706,317	85	52,272	51	-85,186	52	32,914	29
GBP	252,881	72	-74,105	21	87,172	81	-13,067	29
JPY	239,080	81	-94,439	11	105,049	87	-10,610	32
CHF	49,579	40	-20,458	10	29,851	87	-9,393	26
CAD	135,929	21	-7,007	34	-327	68	7,334	44
AUD	153,661	48	-48,682	40	51,128	57	-2,446	46
NZD	55,134	53	-18,724	40	21,374	63	-2,650	21
MXN	212,843	55	35,449	42	-40,143	56	4,694	63
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	74,146	73	45,316	95	-47,670	5	2,354	92
Bitcoin	10,900	58	403	92	-503	0	100	15

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 37,538 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -501 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	85.9	3.7	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.1	68.4	2.8
– Net Position:	37,538	-41,327	3,789
– Gross Longs:	54,859	2,355	5,605
– Gross Shorts:	17,321	43,682	1,816
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.5	5.9	58.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.6	-9.0	5.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 52,272 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 13,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,930 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.5	51.7	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.1	63.8	7.7
– Net Position:	52,272	-85,186	32,914
– Gross Longs:	236,553	365,434	87,138
– Gross Shorts:	184,281	450,620	54,224
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.0	51.9	28.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.4	-10.1	24.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -74,105 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -80,372 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	76.6	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.5	42.2	12.9
– Net Position:	-74,105	87,172	-13,067
– Gross Longs:	30,788	193,786	19,446
– Gross Shorts:	104,893	106,614	32,513
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.6	81.2	28.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.9	8.4	1.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -94,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,005 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -99,444 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	82.2	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.9	38.3	13.9
– Net Position:	-94,439	105,049	-10,610
– Gross Longs:	15,201	196,584	22,605
– Gross Shorts:	109,640	91,535	33,215
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.7	86.9	31.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.9	-12.1	24.5

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -20,458 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,673 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.3	75.6	17.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.6	15.4	36.3
– Net Position:	-20,458	29,851	-9,393
– Gross Longs:	2,641	37,473	8,596
– Gross Shorts:	23,099	7,622	17,989
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	4.9 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.3	87.0	25.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.5	10.4	7.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -7,007 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,680 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,687 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.5	51.5	24.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.6	51.7	18.6
– Net Position:	-7,007	-327	7,334
– Gross Longs:	30,520	70,006	32,660
– Gross Shorts:	37,527	70,333	25,326
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.7	68.5	44.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.7	32.5	-21.5

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -48,682 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,236 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,446 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	63.1	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.1	29.9	14.4
– Net Position:	-48,682	51,128	-2,446
– Gross Longs:	32,897	97,031	19,659
– Gross Shorts:	81,579	45,903	22,105
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.7	57.0	46.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.4	22.6	-25.6

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -18,724 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 597 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,321 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.6	76.2	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.6	37.4	9.8
– Net Position:	-18,724	21,374	-2,650
– Gross Longs:	9,179	42,010	2,762
– Gross Shorts:	27,903	20,636	5,412
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.8	63.3	21.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.0	32.2	-20.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 35,449 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,792 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.8	41.8	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.1	60.6	1.3
– Net Position:	35,449	-40,143	4,694
– Gross Longs:	114,480	88,894	7,396
– Gross Shorts:	79,031	129,037	2,702
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.5	56.1	62.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-5.8	0.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 45,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,602 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,714 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	71.3	22.4	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	86.7	2.7
– Net Position:	45,316	-47,670	2,354
– Gross Longs:	52,896	16,595	4,372
– Gross Shorts:	7,580	64,265	2,018
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.0 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.9	4.8	92.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.7	-0.6	-1.6

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 849 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.6	1.5	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.9	6.1	8.6
– Net Position:	403	-503	100
– Gross Longs:	8,680	159	1,033
– Gross Shorts:	8,277	662	933
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.5	23.2	15.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.3	-20.4	-6.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Forex and Currency News investing Opinions

04 Jun

COT Metals Speculators continue to decrease their Gold & Silver bullish bets

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Metals large speculator bets were mostly higher this week as three out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for metals was Copper (1,608 contracts) with Platinum (878 contracts) and Palladium (339 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Gold (-11,224 contracts) while Silver (-106 contracts) also registered lower bets on the week.

Gold positions dropped by over -11,000 contracts this week and have now been lower in nine out of the past twelve weeks. The gold position has declined by a total of -101,799 contracts over that 12-week time period. This weakness has now pushed the gold speculator net standing to the lowest level of the past seventeen weeks, dating back to February 1st.

Silver bets, meanwhile, have fallen for six consecutive weeks and by a total of -32,432 contracts over that period. Silver speculators have bailed out of their bullish positions since early March 3rd when the net position hit a 43-week high at +52,297 contracts. Currently, the net position has fallen all the way down to +13,997 contracts this week which marks the lowest level in the past 155 weeks, dating back to June 11th of 2019.

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that most of the metals markets are in extreme bearish levels (except Gold which is just above the 20 percent threshold). Strength score trends (or move index, that show 6-week changes in strength scores) shows the recent weakness of all of the metals market. Silver, Gold and Copper have fallen particularly hard in six weeks.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-31-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,787,928	9	332,976	10	-373,761	91	40,785	72
Gold	513,722	18	172,589	5	-200,056	95	27,467	32
Silver	147,301	14	13,997	15	-23,861	99	9,864	6
Copper	189,923	19	-18,025	29	15,425	70	2,600	40
Palladium	6,538	1	-3,133	4	3,221	95	-88	39
Platinum	67,964	35	2,363	7	-6,501	96	4,138	20
Natural Gas	1,115,815	7	-110,368	45	59,679	50	50,689	100
Brent	181,699	25	-40,872	43	38,941	58	1,931	35
Heating Oil	349,618	31	6,455	52	-32,434	37	25,979	88
Soybeans	753,373	34	186,078	71	-158,757	34	-27,321	25
Corn	1,564,217	32	404,200	82	-353,348	22	-50,852	14
Coffee	214,170	8	43,015	76	-45,757	28	2,742	17
Sugar	848,463	11	201,680	78	-240,752	23	39,072	56
Wheat	331,136	11	22,309	48	-18,647	33	-3,662	91