COT Week 24 Charts: Metals Speculator bets lower as Gold & Copper bets drop

June 18, 2022

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

COT Metals market speculator bets were lower this week as all five of the metals markets we cover had lower positioning this week. Leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Gold (-20,670 contracts) and Copper (-10,083 contracts) with Platinum (-3,719 contracts), Silver (-3,399 contracts) and Palladium (-596 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting this week’s COT metals data was the further weakness in bullish bets for the Gold futures contracts. Gold speculators sharply dropped their bullish bets by -20,670 contracts this week and have now seen lower positions for two out of three weeks as well as for the seventh time in the past nine weeks. Over the nine-week time-frame, Gold speculator bets have fallen by a total of -99,689 contracts, going from +254,297 net positions on April 12th to +154,598 net positions this week. These decreases have brought the current level down to the least bullish standing of the past one hundred and fifty-nine weeks, dating back to May 28th of 2019.

Despite the speculator weakness, the Gold futures price has not fallen too sharply although prices have cooled off since hitting an almost two-year high of $2,078 on March 8th. The Gold price currently remains trading in its range between approximately $1,800 and $1,884 that has prevailed since early in May and over the longer-term, remains in an uptrend.


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Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Copper (32.4 percent) is the leading pack this week although this score is just slightly above a extreme bearish score. All the other markets are currently in extreme bearish levels (below 20 percent) as speculator sentiment among the metals is very weak at the moment.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Platinum (5.4 percent) and Copper (1.3 percent) are the only two metals with rising trend scores. Gold and Silver are neck and neck for leading the trends to the downside with scores of -22.4 percent (Gold) and -22 percent (Silver), respectively, while Platinum (-7.3 percent) also has a negative trend score for the week.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jun-14-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,715,674 0 302,946 0 -341,654 100 38,708 70
Gold 497,456 13 154,598 0 -178,569 100 23,971 15
Silver 151,978 18 14,005 0 -22,047 100 8,042 0
Copper 187,247 17 -13,797 32 10,287 67 3,510 46
Palladium 7,740 6 -4,057 0 4,354 100 -297 27
Platinum 66,613 33 2,214 7 -6,793 96 4,579 26
Natural Gas 1,053,265 0 -123,485 42 74,310 54 49,175 96
Brent 171,026 17 -36,389 50 34,601 51 1,788 33
Heating Oil 268,199 23 8,475 55 -28,686 41 20,211 68
Soybeans 754,428 34 182,667 70 -155,663 37 -27,004 25
Corn 1,521,565 25 399,775 81 -344,196 23 -55,579 11
Coffee 202,656 0 46,885 79 -48,399 25 1,514 5
Sugar 800,806 1 170,483 72 -198,006 31 27,523 42
Wheat 336,890 13 20,435 46 -18,089 34 -2,346 98

 


Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 154,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -20,670 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 175,268 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 53.6 24.5 9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.5 60.4 4.4
– Net Position: 154,598 -178,569 23,971
– Gross Longs: 266,596 121,926 45,726
– Gross Shorts: 111,998 300,495 21,755
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.4 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 14.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.4 25.7 -31.1

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 14,005 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,404 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.6 39.6 16.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.4 54.1 10.7
– Net Position: 14,005 -22,047 8,042
– Gross Longs: 57,216 60,161 24,268
– Gross Shorts: 43,211 82,208 16,226
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.0 21.9 -16.9

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -13,797 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,083 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,714 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.3 55.2 8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.6 49.7 6.9
– Net Position: -13,797 10,287 3,510
– Gross Longs: 51,077 103,433 16,449
– Gross Shorts: 64,874 93,146 12,939
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 32.4 66.5 45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.3 0.1 -11.8

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 2,214 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,719 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,933 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.7 42.3 12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.3 52.5 6.0
– Net Position: 2,214 -6,793 4,579
– Gross Longs: 25,085 28,194 8,597
– Gross Shorts: 22,871 34,987 4,018
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.5 95.7 25.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.4 -4.3 -8.8

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,057 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -596 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,461 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.5 71.8 14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 65.9 15.5 18.1
– Net Position: -4,057 4,354 -297
– Gross Longs: 1,045 5,555 1,105
– Gross Shorts: 5,102 1,201 1,402
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 4.6 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 26.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 10.7 -34.4

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.