Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 77

18 Jan

EURUSD H4: Bears ready to pounce if Bulls fail to breach key resistance

By ForexTime

The EURUSD on the H4 time frame was in an uptrend until 16 January when a last higher top was recorded at 1.08735.

A closer look at the Momentum Oscillator reveals negative divergence between point “a” and “b” when comparing the tops at 1.08671 and 1.08735. This could have alerted technically inclined traders that the bullish trend might lose power.

After the higher top at 1.08735, the price dropped through the 15 and 34 Simple Moving Averages and the Momentum Oscillator followed by moving into bearish territory.

A possible critical support level formed when a lower bottom was recorded on 18 January at 1.07654. The bulls are currently trying to drive the price higher.

If the price of EURUSD breaks through the critical support level at 1.07654, then three possible price targets may be projected from there.

Attaching the Fibonacci tool to the lower bottom at 1.07654 and dragging it to near a resistance level that was created on 17 January at 1.08734, the following targets may be anticipated:

  • The first target can be estimated at 1.06987 (161.8%).
  • The second price target may be calculated at 1.05907 (261.8%).
  • The third and final target can be expected at 1.04160 (423.6%).

If the resistance level at 1.08734 is broken, the above scenario must be re-examined.

After all, this could be a case of Euro bulls consolidating around 1.087, before mustering enough mass to punch past the immediate resistance levels that had thwarted EURUSD’s upside since last week.

 

As long as the bears continue their negative mindset and supply continues overcoming demand, the outlook for the EURUSD currency pair will remain bearish.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News
17 Jan

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 17.01.2023 (EURUSD, BRENT, USDCAD)

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

The currency pair is pushing off the signal lines of the indicator. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, implying an uptrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line is expected at 1.0775, followed by growth to 1.1005. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.0575, which will indicate further falling to 1.0485.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

Oil is testing the Tenkan-Sen line of the indicator. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which implies an uptrend. A test of the support area at 84.00 is expected, followed by growth to 90.00. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the ascending channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 77.00, which will entail further falling to 73.00.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

The currency pair is correcting inside a Triangle pattern. The instrument is going under the Ichimoku Cloud, which implies a downtrend. A test of the resistance level at 1.3405 is expected, followed by falling to 1.3165. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a bounce off the upper border of the Triangle pattern. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and securing above 1.3545, which will indicate growth to 1.3635. The decline may be confirmed by a breakaway of the lower border of the Triangle pattern and securing above 1.3295.

USDCAD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
17 Jan

EUR Renewed Its Highs

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD starts this new week of January in a strong position. It is mainly fluctuating near 1.0855, which is very close to five-month highs. After the market got at hand some facts about a slow-down of the US inflation, dollar got under fierce attacks. This time, investors abandoned the “but on rumors, sell on facts” strategy and went on getting rid of the USD.

Market participants suppose that some positive signals from the background will let the Fed launch the final phase of the tight monetary policy.

Investors estimate the increase in the interest rate, expected by the market in February, as 25 base points. This is forecast by almost 92% of the poll participants.

On H4, EUR/USD has completed a wave of growth to 1.0871. Today the market is forming an impulse of decline to 1.0777. Practically, a consolidation range is likely to develop at these levels. With an escape downwards, a wave of decline should continue to 1.0677. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD: its signal line is at the highs, getting ready for a decline to zero.

On H1, the pair has formed a structure of a wave of growth to 1.0872. Today the market is developing the first wave of decline to 1.0775. After this level is reached, a link of correction to 1.0808 is not excluded, followed by a decline to 1.0677. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is above 80. A decline to 50 is expected. With a breakaway downwards here, a pathway for 20 will open.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
16 Jan

Pound to soar if UK & EU reach post-Brexit NI protocol deal

By George Prior

The British pound will be given a “much-needed and significant bounce” if a political agreement between the UK and the EU on the Northern Ireland protocol is reached, says the CEO of deVere Group.

Nigel Green, the chief executive and founder of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations, is speaking out as the UK and European Union negotiators are reportedly closing in on a deal to end their long-running row over post-Brexit trading arrangements in Northern Ireland.

The protocol keeps Northern Ireland inside the EU’s single market for goods, meaning trade can flow across the land border without additional documentation or checks.  But, it also means there are further checks and more paperwork on goods entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain, angering some businesses and is opposed by unionists in Northern Ireland.

The deVere Group CEO says: “After sealing an agreement last week on trade data, the two sides are also nearing a resolution on customs aimed at reducing frictions between Great Britain and Northern Ireland since Brexit.

“It’s hoped that this could lead to a broader deal on the Northern Ireland Protocol and, ultimately, easing the political stalemate at Stormont.”

He continues: “Should this happen, we expect the pound to benefit from a significant bounce.

The hitherto hard-line approach on the Protocol has delivered a body blow to the British currency as it has hit businesses hard, impacting growth and investment, and the political uncertainty has whipped up market turbulence.”

Nigel Green goes on to add that a relief rally would be welcomed by many given the currency’s dismal performance last year.

“A boost is much-needed as sterling was the third-worst performing major currency of 2022.”

He concludes: “As the mood music on both sides improves with negotiators preparing for intensified talks this week, the pound will react positively.

“If a solution is found, pound pessimism will have peaked and we expect the currency to experience a decent rally.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
16 Jan

Trade of the Week: Yen on high alert with BoJ decision looming

By ForexTime 

Brace yourself!

We could be in for the-most-volatile week for USDJPY since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, at least going by the 1-week implied volatility for this pair:

 

USDJPY: What could trigger this week’s big move?

All eyes are on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy meeting on Wednesday, even as December’s shocker rings fresh in the market’s minds.

Recall how, last month, the BoJ unexpectedly doubled the ceiling for 10-year yields up to 0.50%.

Such adjustments are widely seen as a precursor to the eventual BoJ rate hike, which markets expect to happen in April.

 

With all that in mind, here are 3 key things to look out for at this week’s BoJ meeting:

  1. Rate hike?

    It’s unlikely (only a 21% chance, based on market forecasts), but the Japanese central bank could deliver a shocker of epic proportions if it decides to hike its policy balance rate, which currently stands at minus 0.1%.

  2. Tweaks to policy language / inflation forecasts?

    The Yen is ready to react to any hints that the current BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda may drop about potential policy adjustments by the central bank before he steps down in April.

    Also, the central bank is due to release its quarterly economic projections this week. If the latest forecasts for core inflation (excluding food and energy) shows that the BoJ’s 2% target is drawing closer, that may invoke heightened market chatter than a BoJ rate hike will arrive sooner than expected, with such chatter likely to spur on further JPY gains.

  3. Yields cap hike, redux?

    Markets are bracing for another yet another upward adjustment to Japan’s 10-year yields cap, just as it did last month.

    Such forecasts can be derived from how Japan’s 10-year benchmark yields have behaved in recent days, with traders even willing to challenge the new ceiling, sending yields past the 0.5% cap since this past Friday:

Note that, generally speaking, higher yields lend themselves to a stronger currency.

Hence, no surprise that these surging yields have helped the Japanese Yen take full advantage of the weaker US dollar, with the former being one of the best-performing G10 currencies against the greenback so far this year.

 

But be warned! The BoJ could disappoint.

Given the market’s aggressive expectations for another policy adjustment, should the BoJ stand pat this week, that could upset Yen bulls and prompt the unwinding of the Yen’s 2.2% year-to-date gains against the US dollar.

The BoJ may also be inclined to push back against market expectations, at least to “save face” and not give the impression that December’s adjustment was inadequate, with policymakers having to “catch up” with bond markets since its last meeting.

Potential scenarios for USDJPY

Here are the same scenarios for USDJPY as stated in our Week Ahead article published last Friday:

  • If Governor Kuroda pushes back against the market’s expectations for a rate hike this year, that may prompt the Japanese Yen to unwind some of its recent gains and potentially pull USDJPY back above the psychologically-important 130 mark.
  • On the other hand, should markets detect the slightest of hawkish hints (BoJ is getting closer to a rate hike) out of Governor Kuroda next (update: this) week, that should move USDJPY closer towards 126.0 and potentially test the lower downtrend line that began in November.

Going back to the 1-week implied volatility chart at the top of this article, it also suggests a 70% chance that USDJPY could this week reach either as low as 123.9, or back up as high as 132.4.

 

It may all boil down to the incoming BoJ policy signals, and whether the central bank leans into or against market expectations for more policy tightening to come.

Technical pullback?

However, looking at the chart below, USDJPY’s 14-day relative strength index careened close to the 30 threshold which denotes “oversold conditions”.

That may explain the pullback in this currency pair at the time of writing, as USJPY recovers from such oversold conditions.

However, once the froth is cleared, that may pave the way for the next big move for USDJPY over the coming days.

Also look out for: Japan national CPI (consumer price index) due Friday, January 20

The headline inflation print out of the world’s third largest economy is due before the weekend, and is forecasted to post a 4% print – its highest in over three decades!

BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has been willing to look beyond such elevated inflation numbers because he believes that the cost-push drivers are temporary. He wants to see more sustainable demand-pull inflation stemming from wage growth.

Still, a higher-than-expected CPI print may embolden those expecting the eventual BoJ rate hike to arrive perhaps as soon as Kuroda’s replacement takes the helm of the Japanese central bank in April.

The narrative above may boost the Yen’s fortunes further, even after its terrific start to the new year.

NOTE: Back on Jan 4, 2023, we highlighted JPY as one of the 3 potential winners of 2023, with USDJPY potentially dropping down to the 125 mark.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions
14 Jan

Currency Speculators pull back on Japanese Yen bearish bets to 21-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 10th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & Euro

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (11,487 contracts) with the EuroFX (5,067 contracts), Mexican Peso (2,995 contracts) and the Australian Dollar (2,577 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-9,155 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-6,510 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-4,516 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-4,189 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-1,221 contracts), Bitcoin (-983 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (-130 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currencies data is the recent declines in the Japanese Yen bearish speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for the Yen rose by +11,487 contracts this week and have been higher for the fifth time over the past six weeks. Yen speculator bets have also gained in nine out of the past eleven weeks, going from a total of -102,618 contracts on October 25th to a 21-week bearish low of just -35,377 contracts this week.

The Yen price has been strongly improving in recent trade against the US dollar as the Yen has gained by approximately 16 percent since hitting a multi-decade low in October. The USDJPY currency pair has fallen from around 152.09 in October to trading currently below 128.00 at the close of this week.

Helping the Yen’s trend change course has been the Bank of Japan altering its bond yield policy with the BOJ allowing its bond-band to expand. Also, there has been a decline in the yield differential between Japan and the US since October – aided by a moderation in US inflation data.

Japan minus US 10 year yield differential

Japan minus US 10 year yield differential

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jan-10-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index42,3075016,54053-19,280452,74046
EUR746,16388134,98276-182,2102447,22854
GBP202,71339-29,4564435,26858-5,81247
JPY175,74535-35,3774734,4885288955
CHF33,26613-7,370358,20659-83655
CAD133,88819-30,955527,265913,69038
AUD126,02827-33,6905432,210431,48056
NZD27,56617,35074-8,499261,14965
MXN270,82682-53,381547,206926,17594
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL33,4291821,70169-23,574301,87383
Bitcoin14,89176-59467-29062327

 

Strength Scores led by Euro & New Zealand Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (76 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (74 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (69 percent), Bitcoin (67 percent) and the Australian Dollar (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Mexican Peso (5 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (35 percent) and the British Pound (44 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (52.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (54.6 percent)
EuroFX (76.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (74.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (43.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (51.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (47.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (40.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (35.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (47.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (4.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (9.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (53.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (51.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (73.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (74.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (4.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (3.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (69.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (76.1 percent)
Bitcoin (66.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (83.7 percent)

 

New Zealand Dollar & Japanese Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (33 percent) and the Japanese Yen (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Swiss Franc (18 percent), the Brazilian Real (15 percent) and the Australian Dollar (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Mexican Peso (-51 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-18 percent), Bitcoin (-16 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-13.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-10.5 percent)
EuroFX (3.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (2.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (6.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (19.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (11.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (18.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (30.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-17.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-18.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (10.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (6.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (33.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (31.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (-50.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-51.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (15.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (20.9 percent)
Bitcoin (-16.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-5.5 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 16,540 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,221 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,761 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:80.22.713.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.148.37.2
– Net Position:16,540-19,2802,740
– Gross Longs:33,9281,1585,784
– Gross Shorts:17,38820,4383,044
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.1 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.545.146.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.914.6-9.4

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 134,982 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,067 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 129,915 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.053.712.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.978.15.9
– Net Position:134,982-182,21047,228
– Gross Longs:238,623400,77591,275
– Gross Shorts:103,641582,98544,047
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.7 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.424.354.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.9-7.823.7

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -29,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,155 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,301 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.868.311.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.350.914.5
– Net Position:-29,45635,268-5,812
– Gross Longs:36,007138,53223,559
– Gross Shorts:65,463103,26429,371
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.3 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.758.046.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.1-9.513.4

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -35,377 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 11,487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,864 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.067.816.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.148.216.0
– Net Position:-35,37734,488889
– Gross Longs:26,395119,16628,973
– Gross Shorts:61,77284,67828,084
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.4 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.152.555.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.7-23.532.8

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -7,370 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,516 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,854 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.051.237.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.226.540.2
– Net Position:-7,3708,206-836
– Gross Longs:3,66817,03412,542
– Gross Shorts:11,0388,82813,378
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):35.158.554.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.2-19.416.5

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -30,955 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,189 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,766 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.656.124.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.735.722.1
– Net Position:-30,95527,2653,690
– Gross Longs:22,16675,06033,283
– Gross Shorts:53,12147,79529,593
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.6 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.991.437.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.711.13.1

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -33,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,267 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.056.916.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:50.731.315.1
– Net Position:-33,69032,2101,480
– Gross Longs:30,21071,69620,573
– Gross Shorts:63,90039,48619,093
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.8 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.642.956.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.1-14.018.9

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 7,350 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -130 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,480 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.738.215.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.169.011.1
– Net Position:7,350-8,4991,149
– Gross Longs:12,60710,5204,206
– Gross Shorts:5,25719,0193,057
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.6 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):73.926.564.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.2-31.08.5

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -53,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,995 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,376 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:55.241.33.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:74.923.90.9
– Net Position:-53,38147,2066,175
– Gross Longs:149,517111,9708,593
– Gross Shorts:202,89864,7642,418
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.7 to 13.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.692.593.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-50.950.0-2.9

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 21,701 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,510 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,211 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:75.412.910.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.583.45.0
– Net Position:21,701-23,5741,873
– Gross Longs:25,2104,3223,561
– Gross Shorts:3,50927,8961,688
– Long to Short Ratio:7.2 to 10.2 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.230.483.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.1-14.6-1.7

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -594 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -983 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 389 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:80.53.09.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:84.53.24.8
– Net Position:-594-29623
– Gross Longs:11,9894471,339
– Gross Shorts:12,583476716
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.663.127.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.036.53.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
13 Jan

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 13.01.2023 (USDCAD, AUDUSD, USDCHF)

By RoboForex.com

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

On H4, at the support level, the pair has formed a Hammer reversal pattern. The pair is now going by the signal in an ascending wave. The goal of the growth might be 1.3455; later the price might break through it and extend correction. However, the price may drop to 1.3300 without any correction at all.

USDCAD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

In H4, at the resistance level, the pair has formed a Handing Man reversal pattern. The pair may now go by the signal in an ascending wave. The goal of the pullback might be 0.6920. After a test of the support level the quotes might get the chance for a bounce off it and an extension of the uptrend. However, the price may grow to 0.7015 without any pullback.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

On H4, at the resistance level, the pair has formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern. The pair may now go by the signal in a descending wave. The goal of the decline might be 0.9250. Upon testing the resistance level, the pair might break through it and continue the downtrend. However, the price may pull back to 0.9350 before falling.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
12 Jan

Murrey Math Lines 12.01.2023 (USDCHF, XAUUSD)

By RoboForex.com

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

On H4, the quotes are under the 200-day Moving Average, indicating prevalence of a downtrend. The RSI is approaching the resistance level. A test of 1/8 (0.9338) is expected here, followed by a bounce off it and falling to the support level of -1/8 (0.9216). The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of 1/8 (0.9338) upwards, which might lead to a trend reversal and growth of the pair to the resistance level of 2/8 (0.9399).

USDCHFH4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, an additional signal confirming the decline will be a breakaway of the lower border of VoltyChannel.

USDCHF_M15
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

On H4, Gold quotes are in the overbought area. The RSI is nearing the descending trendline that acts as a resistance level. Hence, a downward breakaway of 8/8 (1875.50) should be expected, followed by falling to the support level of 6/8 (1843.75). The scenario can be cancelled by rising over the resistance level of +1/8 (1890.62). This might provoke further growth of the quotes to +2/8 (1906.25).

USDCAD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, a breakaway of the lower border of VoltyChannel will increase the probability of further falling.

USDCAD_M15

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
12 Jan

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2023.01.12

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.0729
  • Prev Close: 1.0755
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.24 %

Important inflation data will be released in the US today. Economists expect the consumer price index to fall from 7.1% to 6.5% year-over-year in December. If the actual data match the forecast, the dollar index could fall even more. But if the data is worse than expected, especially for core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, the situation could be reversed. In this case, the dollar index would likely show impulse up, while the euro would collapse.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.0650, 1.0597, 1.0535, 1.0497, 1.0480, 1.0361, 1.0332, 1.0284
  • Resistance levels: 1.0799, 1.0844

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is still bullish. The price is trading above the moving averages and forming a narrow price balance. Volatility on the eve of the news has declined sharply. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but there are signs of divergence, which means that price growth is limited, and a correction should be expected to find good entry points. Under such market conditions, buy trades are better to consider from the support level of 1.0650 or 1.0597 with confirmation on intraday time frames. Sell deals can be considered from the daily resistance level of 1.0799, but better with a confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0535 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2023.01.12:
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2147
  • Prev Close: 1.2147
  • % chg. over the last day: 0.00 %

The situation on the GBP/USD currency pair remains the same. Economists are betting on the fall of GBP/USD quotes ahead of important US inflation data and UK GDP data on Friday. The economic outlook for the United Kingdom remains gloomy. In this case, the Bank of England has almost no options. Interest rates need to rise further to lower inflation. But an increase in rates will have a negative impact on the economy, which will cause GDP to fall even further. Finding a middle ground in such a situation is extremely difficult.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2080, 1.2000, 1.1928, 1.1875, 1.1684, 1.1476, 1.1418
  • Resistance levels: 1.2193, 1.2308, 1.2431, 1.2519

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading in a narrow range above the moving averages. The MACD indicator is positive again, there is some buying pressure inside the day, but volatility has decreased ahead of the inflation data. In such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on intraday time frames from the support at 1.2080 or 1.1999, but with confirmation. Sell trades are best looked for from the resistance level of 1.2193 or the stronger level of 1.2238, but also better with confirmation in the form of a false breakout or a change in the structure on the lower time frames.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.1875 support level and fixes above it, the downtrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
News feed for 2023.01.12:
  • – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 132.09
  • Prev Close: 132.48
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.29 %

Former Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy council representative Sayuri Shirai called for a review of the bank’s policy over the past 10 years in light of the changing inflationary picture, which could cause prices to remain high for longer than expected, leading to negative consequences for the economy. The current term of Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda comes to an end in April, and Shirai is widely seen as a candidate for deputy governor. Traders need to understand that any even insignificant shifts of the Bank of Japan in the direction of changing the monetary policy can lead to a significant movement of the Japanese yen.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 131.12, 130.58, 129.65
  • Resistance levels: 132.37, 133.23, 134.45, 135.88, 137.03, 138.00, 139.09

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. Now the price is trading below the levels of the moving averages, while the MACD indicator is negative again, but there are the first signs of divergence. The corrective wave is coming to an end. It is best to look for buy trades from the support levels of 131.12 or 130.58, but only with intraday confirmation. Sell deals can be searched for from the resistance level of 132.37 or 133.23 on the condition of a reverse reaction or false breakout.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below the support level of 130.58, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/JPY
News feed for 2023.01.12:
  • – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.3424
  • Prev Close: 1.3423
  • % chg. over the last day: 0.00 %

A 3% rise in oil prices did not help the Canadian currency to strengthen significantly on Wednesday. Investors are taking no chances ahead of US inflation data, which will be crucial to the short-term direction of the USD/CAD. USD/CAD quotes are trading in a tight corridor for now. A decline in inflation in the US against the background of oil price growth may provoke the strengthening of the Canadian currency (decrease of USD/CAD).

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.3362, 1.3212
  • Resistance levels: 1.3492, 1.3513, 1.3561, 1.3594, 1.3632, 1.3700

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. The price is trading in a narrow trading range at the level of moving averages in front of the resistance level of 1.3492. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, it is best to wait for the price to exit the narrow range. Buy trades should be considered after the breakout of 1.3439, but only with short targets and confirmation. Sell deals are better to look for on intraday time frames from the resistance level of 1.3492 or 1.3513, but with a confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative on the lower time frames.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out and consolidates above the resistance level of 1.3632, the uptrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
News feed for 2023.01.12:
  • – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
11 Jan

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: Major Currencies

By ForexTime 

A sense of anticipation gripped financial markets today as investors prepared for the US inflation data on Thursday.

Market players remain hopeful that inflation may have cooled further in December and this seems to be supporting global equity markets. In the currency space, the dollar remains firm while gold has struggled to conquer the $1880 resistance level. With less than 24 hours until the key US inflation report is published, markets may remain on standby waiting for a fundamental spark. Despite the expected lack of action over the next few hours, this period of calm could help identify some potential opportunities before the CPI storm!

EURUSD waiting for softer USD?

This currency pair remains firmly bullish on the daily timeframe as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows. Prices are trading above the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA while the MACD trades above zero. The recent breakout above 1.0700 could signal further upside with 1.0770 with 1.0900 acting as key levels of interest. Should prices slip back under 1.0700, the currency pair could experience a selloff towards 1.0505.

GBPUSD trapped within a range 

It seems like the GBPUSD remains trapped within a very wide range on the daily charts. Support can be found at 1.1900 and resistance at 1.2210. A potent fundamental spark may be needed for the currency pair to resume the uptrend or experience a reversal lower. The pending US inflation report could inject fresh life into the GBPUSD, with a softer inflation report favour GBPUSD bulls. Looking at the technical picture, a strong breakout above 1.2210 may signal an incline toward 1.2300 and 1.2460, respectively.

USDJPY breakout on horizon

As the subtitle says, the USDJPY could be gearing up for a breakout. Prices remain trapped within a 450 range with bulls and bears waiting for a direction catalyst. This may come in the form of the pending US inflation data which may determine the USDJPY’s short-term outlook. A solid breakout and daily close below 130.00 could signal a selloff towards 127.00. Should prices push back above 134.50, the next key level of interest can be found at 138.00.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

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