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Currency Speculators push Mexican Peso positions to 165-week high as peso cruises

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 9th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (12,322 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (7,833 contracts), the Japanese Yen (7,309 contracts), EuroFX (5,933 contracts), British Pound (3,463 contracts) and Bitcoin (255 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-4,183 contracts) with the New Zealand Dollar (-2,664 contracts), Swiss Franc (-1,468 contracts), Brazilian Real (-867 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-194 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Mexican Peso positions hit 165-week high as peso cruises higher

Highlighting the COT currency data this week is the continued rise in the Mexican peso positioning. Large speculators boosted their bullish bets for the Mexican peso this week for the second straight week and for the fourth time out of the past six weeks.

Peso bets have now improved by a total of +101,284 contracts over the past nine weeks, going from a net position of -31,252 contracts on March 7th to this week’s total net position of +70,032 contracts. This boost in speculator sentiment has brought the current net position to the highest level in 165 weeks, dating back to the height of the pandemic in March of 2020.

Helping the peso positioning has been the rising interest rates in Mexico that recently reached the 11.25 percent level at the latest central bank meeting in March. There is speculation of another 25 basis point increase in May as well. This has given Mexico a rising interest rate differential with the US central bank that is seen as mostly likely holding its key interest rate in June with an 84 percent probability, according to the CME Fed Tool.

The Mexican peso exchange rate versus the US dollar has been in a sharp uptrend to start 2023. The MXN futures (front month) price closed this week at 0.5642 compared to the 2023 opening price around the 0.5070 exchange rate. The MXN futures have gained in six out of the past eight weeks and, this week, reached its highest level since September 2017.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-09-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	32,175	28	11,156	44	-12,626	56	1,470	33
EUR	794,721	90	179,422	88	-234,260	11	54,838	66
GBP	242,576	63	4,528	73	-11,528	26	7,000	72
JPY	192,574	42	-61,015	31	69,162	69	-8,147	37
CHF	43,389	47	-4,467	43	4,759	53	-292	57
CAD	159,364	37	-42,263	15	41,957	85	306	23
AUD	165,532	62	-49,193	39	56,897	61	-7,704	34
NZD	41,583	39	-4,581	41	4,283	57	298	54
MXN	255,441	57	70,032	100	-76,533	0	6,501	96
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	49,208	38	34,594	80	-36,504	20	1,910	59
Bitcoin	13,102	56	423	84	-1,131	0	708	29

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (100 percent) and the EuroFX (88 percent) lead the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (84 percent), Brazilian Real (80 percent) and the British Pound (73 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (15 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (31 percent), Australian Dollar (39 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (41 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (43.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (43.9 percent)
EuroFX (87.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (85.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (72.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (69.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (31.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (26.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (42.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (46.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (15.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (7.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (39.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (43.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (41.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (48.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (90.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (79.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (80.9 percent)
Bitcoin (84.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (79.9 percent)

British Pound & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (25 percent) and the Mexican Peso (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (14 percent), the Brazilian Real (14 percent) and the EuroFX (13 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Australian Dollar (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-4 percent), US Dollar Index (-3 percent) and the Swiss Franc (4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-2.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-4.7 percent)
EuroFX (13.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (11.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (24.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (18.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-4.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-1.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (4.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (11.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (13.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (6.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (-12.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-6.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (5.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (18.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (15.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (4.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (14.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (13.5 percent)
Bitcoin (12.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (13.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 11,156 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -194 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,350 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	67.3	12.1	15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.6	51.4	10.7
– Net Position:	11,156	-12,626	1,470
– Gross Longs:	21,656	3,902	4,923
– Gross Shorts:	10,500	16,528	3,453
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.5	55.7	32.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.6	3.9	-9.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 179,422 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,933 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 173,489 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.8	52.6	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	82.1	5.2
– Net Position:	179,422	-234,260	54,838
– Gross Longs:	260,335	418,410	96,515
– Gross Shorts:	80,913	652,670	41,677
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.5	11.4	66.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.3	-14.5	13.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 4,528 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,065 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.5	52.3	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.6	57.1	9.9
– Net Position:	4,528	-11,528	7,000
– Gross Longs:	71,561	126,935	31,057
– Gross Shorts:	67,033	138,463	24,057
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.9	26.3	71.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.6	-23.2	10.8

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -61,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,309 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,324 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	71.7	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.2	35.7	19.4
– Net Position:	-61,015	69,162	-8,147
– Gross Longs:	22,229	137,992	29,150
– Gross Shorts:	83,244	68,830	37,297
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.3	69.4	36.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.3	5.7	-9.3

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,467 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,468 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,999 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.3	44.8	33.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.6	33.8	34.5
– Net Position:	-4,467	4,759	-292
– Gross Longs:	7,056	19,431	14,657
– Gross Shorts:	11,523	14,672	14,949
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.8	52.8	56.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.2	-9.9	14.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -42,263 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,833 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,096 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	59.4	19.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.1	33.1	19.4
– Net Position:	-42,263	41,957	306
– Gross Longs:	29,609	94,662	31,226
– Gross Shorts:	71,872	52,705	30,920
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.1	84.7	23.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.6	-14.6	15.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -49,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,183 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,010 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.9	59.6	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.6	25.3	16.4
– Net Position:	-49,193	56,897	-7,704
– Gross Longs:	41,225	98,698	19,371
– Gross Shorts:	90,418	41,801	27,075
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.2	61.3	33.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.8	8.3	6.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,664 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,917 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.0	48.6	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.0	38.3	8.1
– Net Position:	-4,581	4,283	298
– Gross Longs:	17,461	20,224	3,681
– Gross Shorts:	22,042	15,941	3,383
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.2	56.6	53.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.5	-5.4	2.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 70,032 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,322 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,710 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.0	46.2	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	76.1	0.9
– Net Position:	70,032	-76,533	6,501
– Gross Longs:	127,763	117,890	8,859
– Gross Shorts:	57,731	194,423	2,358
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	95.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-16.0	11.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 34,594 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -867 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,461 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.6	14.4	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.3	88.6	3.9
– Net Position:	34,594	-36,504	1,910
– Gross Longs:	38,196	7,097	3,841
– Gross Shorts:	3,602	43,601	1,931
– Long to Short Ratio:	10.6 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.8	19.8	59.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.1	-7.4	-40.8

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 168 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.5	1.8	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	73.3	10.4	4.8
– Net Position:	423	-1,131	708
– Gross Longs:	10,027	233	1,334
– Gross Shorts:	9,604	1,364	626
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.3	8.7	29.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.2	-38.3	3.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

13 May

COT Speculator Extremes: Peso, 2-Year, 5-Year & SP500 lead weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on May 9th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 15.5 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 70,032 net contracts this week with a boost of 12,322 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 1.0 this week. The speculator position registered 62,029 net contracts this week with a weekly rise of 4,078 contracts in speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level resides at a 99.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 5.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -2,101 net contracts this week with a change of -82 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 88.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 19.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 276,610 net contracts this week with a gain of 9,263 contracts in the speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level sits at a 87.8 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 37.2 this week.

The speculator position was 97,837 net contracts this week with a decline of -6,949 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -22.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -910,642 net contracts this week with a edge lower by -412 contracts in the speculator bets.

S&P500 Mini

The S&P500 Mini speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The S&P500 speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -24.7 this week. The speculator position was -376,023 net contracts this week with a drop of -20,612 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 2-Year Note speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -26.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -749,885 net contracts this week with a sharp decline of -116,409 contracts in the speculator bets.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Lean Hogs speculator level is at a 1.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.6 this week. The speculator position was -26,075 net contracts this week with a decrease of -6,381 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

Finally, the Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Ultra 10-Year speculator level is at a 1.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.2 this week. The speculator position was -211,598 net contracts this week with a change of 6,690 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News investing Opinions

12 May

Week Ahead: 3 Reasons To Watch USDJPY

By ForexTime

The Japanese Yen has appreciated against every single G10 currency since the start of May, with the USDJPY dropping over 1% month-to-date.

But before we take a deep dive into what forces may boost or weaken the yen, let’s have a glance at the list of key economic reports and events that could influence currency markets next week:

Monday, May 15

EUR: Eurozone industrial production
JPY: Japan April PPI
USD: Empire Manufacturing, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech
GBP: Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speech

Tuesday, May 16

CAD: Canada April CPI
CNY: China retail sales, industrial production
EUR: Eurozone Q1 GDP, Germany ZEW survey expectations
GBP: UK jobless claims, unemployment
USD: US April retail sales, industrial production, Fed speech

Wednesday, May 17

EUR: Eurozone April CPI
JPY: Japan Q1 GDP, Industrial production
GBP: BoE Governor Andrew Bailey speech

Thursday, May 18

AUD: Unemployment change
USD: Initial jobless claims, existing home sales

Friday, May 19

CAD: Canada March retail sales
JPY: Japan April CPI
EUR: ECB President Christine Lagarde speech
USD: New York Fed President John Williams speech
G7 leaders meet in Hiroshima

Now, here are 3 reasons why we’re keeping a close eye on the USDJPY:

Top tier Japan data

The new Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda recently mentioned that the BoJ would start unwinding its monetary easing once the 2% inflation target can be achieved in a sustainable and stable manner.

This could add more flavour to the incoming data, with any whiff or hint of a potential policy pivot in the future rocking FX markets. It may be wise to keep a close eye on:

Japan Q1 2023 GDP report due on Wednesday, 17th May.

Markets are forecasting GDP to expand 0.8% quarter on quarter in annualized terms, up from a 0.1% expansion in the final quarter of 2022. A report that meets or exceeds expectations could boost confidence in Japan’s economic recovery, providing an argument for the BoJ to evaluate and potentially tweak its current stimulus policy. However, a disappointing GDP print could provide more evidence that the current recovery remains weak, keeping BoJ doves in power.

Japan April CPI report due on Friday, May 19th

The annual inflation is expected to expand to 3.5% in April from the 3.2% witnessed in the previous month. Regarding the core CPI excluding fresh food, this is expected to jump 3.4% year-on-year, up from the 3.1% rise in March. Looking at the core CPI excluding both fresh food and energy, markets are forecasting this to rise 4.2%, a noticeable rise from the 3.8% in the prior month.

Ultimately, more signs of rising inflationary pressures could fuel speculation around the BoJ unwinding its ultra-loose monetary policy. Traders are currently pricing in a 72% probability of a 10-basis point hike by the December BoJ meeting, it will be interesting to see how the incoming data influences expectations.

More clues about the Fed’s next move

Investors will be keeping an eye on fresh clues on the Fed’s next move, especially after the annual increase in US inflation slowed to below 5% in April for the first time in two years.

Fed speeches

A chorus of Fed speakers will be under the spotlight ranging from Rachael Bostic, to Loretta Mester and John Williams among others. With annual US inflation cooling, it will be interesting to hear what policymakers have to say. Any dovish remarks and more hints of the Fed pausing hikes could weaken the dollar, dragging the USDJPY lower.

US data cocktail

Much attention will be directed towards the latest US retail sales, industrial production and US weekly initial jobless claims, especially after the Fed stressed that incoming data would influence monetary policy decisions. A disappointing set of reports may further dampen confidence over the US economy and support expectations around the Fed cutting rates down the road. If the figures print above market forecasts, it may rekindle speculation around the Fed keeping rates higher for longer.

Major USDJPY breakout on the horizon

The USDJPY remains trapped within a 200-pip range on the daily charts.

Although prices seem to be respecting a bullish channel, a fresh fundamental spark is needed before the trend resumes or reverses. A strong breakout and daily close above 135.50 could open a path toward major resistance around the 137.80/138.00 regions. Should prices slip below the 133.50 support, the USDJPY could tumble towards 132.90 and 131.20, respectively.

At the time of writing Bloomberg’s FX model forecasts a 73% chance that USDJPY will trade within the 132.84 – 136.40 range over the upcoming week.

Zooming out to the monthly timeframe, strong resistance can be found at 138.00 and support at 130.00. A move back below 133.50 could signal a decline toward 130.00 and 127.20, respectively. Should 138.00 prove to be unreliable resistance, this could signal an incline back toward 149.00 in the medium to longer term.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

11 May

GBPUSD Slips Ahead Of BoE Rate Decision

By ForexTime

Our focus falls on the pound ahead of the Bank of England (BoE) rate decision this afternoon.

The BoE is widely expected to raise interest rates for the 12th consecutive meeting thanks to stubborn double-digit inflation. While a 25-basis point hike is pretty much a certainty, the key question is whether the BoE will signal more hikes like the European Central Bank (ECB) or hint at a pause like the Federal Reserve (Fed).

A spicy combination of hot inflation and strong wage growth may force the central bank to keep the doors open for more rate hikes down the road. Nevertheless, the minutes, quarterly Monetary Policy Report, and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s press conference may offer fresh clues on the BoE’s next move.

In the previous trading session, the GBPUSD jumped to a fresh 2023 high around 1.2680 before giving back some gains. If the BoE sends a hawkish message and hints of more hikes in the future, this could boost the currency pair. Alternatively, a dovish-sounding BoE that hints at pausing rates could drag prices lower. Whatever the outcome, it will certainly have a strong impact on the GBPUSD.

Taking a deep dive into the technicals…

The GBPUSD is in an established uptrend on the daily timeframe with multiple impulse waves already showing clearly on the chart. On 9 May at 1.26799 a higher top was recorded but the bears also sent a clear signal that they want another decent innings here soon.

Two bearish pin bars forming in the last few days was a clear warning for alert technical traders that a shift in momentum might be on the books. This is being confirmed currently with a strong bearish candle and a possible correction wave in progress.

If the bears continue to pull the price lower, they might reach a weekly support level and then two scenarios are possible from there.

One is that the bulls get back into the game and start driving prices upward to start a possible new impulse wave.

Two is that the bears keep the upper hand and although some lower time frame ranging can be expected as the weekly support level exerts it’s influence on the price, the correction wave may continue or even, after a potential short bullish stint, a lower top and then lower bottom might form on the D1 chart to give the bears full control of the market.

As long as the bulls keep on making higher top and bottoms, the outlook for GBPUSD on the D1 time frame will remain bullish as confirmed by the price currently being above the 15 and 34 Simple Moving Averages and the Momentum oscillator hovering above the 100-base line in bullish terrain.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

11 May

RoboMarkets Chosen as Europe’s Most Trusted Broker in 2023

RoboMarkets, a brokerage company that provides financial markets trading services to European clients, has won the Safest European Broker 2023 title. This award was presented at the prestigious London Trader Show 2023 event in London.

The London Trader Show (formerly the London Forex Show) has been running every year since 2010. It is one of the most important events for the industry in Europe and the UK, providing investors and traders with the opportunity to interact with industry peers and gain new knowledge. A variety of training sessions and hands-on workshops are organised as part of this one-day event.

The highlight of the show’s programme is the awarding of The London Trader Show Awards 2023. During the voting, which was conducted on the organiser’s official website until 28 February 2023, everyone could take a poll and vote for their favourites in the 8 nominated categories.

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Financial News Forex and Currency News

10 May

China’s gold buying spree challenges the dollar and may impact your investments

By George Prior

China is increasingly expanding its gold reserves and ditching the dollar in moves that could have implications for your investments, warns the CEO and founder of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

The warning from Nigel Green of deVere Group comes as it is revealed that China’s gold reserves increased by 8.09 tons in April, according to data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. Total gold stockpiles reached 2,076 tons after the nation added 120 tons in the five months through March.

He says: “Historically, China has been a major buyer of US Treasuries, but this has seen a markedly cooling off as Beijing swaps them out in favour of gold.

“During the last few years, the US has digitally been adding an unprecedented amount of dollars to the US economy which, of course, has the effect of devaluing the greenback over time, potentially making it less of an attractive investment for China, and others.”

“It can also be reasonably expected that this strategic move will limit its dependence on the dollar, as trade and political relations with the US deteriorate further.”

The deVere CEO continues: “Buying gold rather than dollars may also signal moves by China that it is eventually seeking to replace the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

“Building stocks of the precious metal and allowing the Chinese yuan to be traded freely would weaken the US dollar’s dominance as the global reserve currency. The move would have enormous implications, making it more expensive for the US government to borrow money and potentially to run perpetual trade and budget deficits.

“The US is used to having the privileged position of having the key reserve currency, but others are eager to take over it.”

Oil is one of the most important and widely traded commodities in the world, and it has traditionally been priced and traded in US dollars. This has given the US dollar a dominant role in global financial markets, as countries that want to purchase oil must first acquire US dollars in order to do so.

As a reserve currency, the dollar is the default for international transactions. For example, an Indian company wants to buy wine from Spain, it’s probable that they will carry out the transaction in dollars. Both companies must then purchase dollars to conduct their business, fuelling greater demand.

The value of global commodities, such as oil, is also generally demarcated in US dollars.

“If oil trading were to shift away from the US dollar, it would dramatically reduce the demand for US dollars, which would lead to a decrease in the value of the US currency. This could have a number of ripple effects throughout the global economy, including hugely increased inflation in the United States and potentially destabilising effects on financial markets,” notes Nigel Green.

With the dollar seemingly losing some of its traditional dominance, investment portfolios could be impacted and might need to be repositioned to seize the opportunities and sidestep the risks.

“As ever, the key will be to seek professional advice from an advisor and to ensure that your portfolio is properly diversified across asset classes, sectors, regions, and currencies.”

He goes on to add that: “Stock markets outside the US, particularly those in emerging markets, typically perform well when the dollar is weaker.

“US large caps and multinationals are also likely to do well as much of their profits are generated in countries where the currencies are becoming stronger.

“Sectors that can be expected to do well with a weaker greenback include energy and industrial commodities because they are traded in dollars and, therefore, as the dollar declines, they become less expensive for non-US-based buyers.

“Tech should also do relatively well, as much of the revenue also comes from outside the United States.”

Nigel Green concludes: “The strategic move by China to increasingly buy more gold and less US dollars could, in the longer-term, have a significant effect on the global financial system and investment planning.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

10 May

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: Breakouts

By ForexTime

Today’s big event and potential market shaker will be the latest US inflation data which could offer fresh insight into the Federal Reserve’s next move.

As the countdown to the April CPI report enters its final hours, here are a selection of technical setups to keep an eye on.

Dollar Index trapped within range

After swinging within a range over the past few weeks, could the Dollar Index be gearing up for a breakout? Support can be found at 100.72 and resistance at 102.34. A bullish break above 102.34 could inspire an incline towards 103.00. If prices slip back under 100.72, bears may take prices towards 100.00.

EURUSD edges towards support level

It is the same old story for the EURUSD with prices trapped within a range. Support can be found around 1.0912 and resistance at 1.1075. Bears seem to be making a move, dragging prices closer toward the support. However, the pending US inflation report could heavily influence the currency pair’s short-term outlook. A bearish breakout under 1.0912 could open the doors toward 1.0845 – where the 50-day SMA resides.

GBPUSD steady above 1.2600

Prices remain firmly bullish on the daily charts as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows. The recent breakout above 1.2580 has opened the doors to higher levels with 1.2730 and 1.2870 acting as key points of interest. Should prices slip back under 1.2580, bears may target 1.2530 and 1.2380, respectively.

USDJPY lingers above 135.00

Despite breaking above the 135.00 resistance level, the USDJPY looks pressured on the daily charts. More resistance can be found around 137.00, where the 200-day SMA resides, and 137.77. If prices end up slipping back under 135.00, the USDJPY could test 133.70, 132.90, and 131.20.

SPX500_m remains rangebound

The SPX500_m needs a potent fundamental spark to trigger a bullish or bearish breakout. Support can be found at 4050 and resistance at 4180. A break below 4050 may open the doors towards 4000. If bulls push prices beyond 4180, the index may target levels not seen since August 2022 around 4280.

NQ100_m bounces within a range

It feels like most markets are on standby, waiting for the next big catalyst to trigger a big move. The NQ100_m remains in a range with support found at 12800 and resistance at 13300. A breakout could be on the horizon.

Gold remains a choppy affair

The precious metal is likely to be heavily influenced by the pending US CPI report. A move back above $2047 may open the doors toward the 2023 high at $2063. If prices slip back under $2015, this could signal a selloff towards $2000.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

08 May

Trade Of The Week: GBPUSD Primed For Further Upside?

By ForexTime

The GBPUSD hijacked our attention this morning after hitting a fresh 2023 high.

Sterling has become the best performing G10 currency year-to-date, gaining roughly 4.7% against the dollar thanks to fundamental and technical forces.

On the fundamental side, pound bulls remain supported by encouraging UK economic data, BoE rate hike expectations and a weaker dollar. Taking a glance at the technicals, prices are firmly bullish on the weekly timeframe with the next major resistance levels around the 100 and 200-week Simple Moving Averages.

This could be a volatile week for the GBPUSD and here are 4 reasons why…

BoE Super Thursday

The Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision will be on Thursday 11th May.

This will be accompanied by the minutes of the meeting and the quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR), making it a Super Thursday combo.

Markets widely expect the BoE to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, taking the key rate to 4.5%. Given how UK inflation remains in double digits at 10.1% and strong wage growth, this is unlikely to be the last rate hike from the BoE. Investors will be paying very close attention to the minutes, quarterly MPR and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s press conference for fresh clues on the central bank’s next move.

If the BoE strikes a hawkish note and signals further rate hikes in the face of stubborn inflation, this could boost the GBPUSD higher
A cautious sounding BoE that hints at potentially pausing rate hikes could send the Pound tumbling.

US April CPI report

Before the BoE rate decision, much attention will be directed towards the April US consumer price index (CPI) report published on Wednesday. After last Friday’s robust NFP report that saw the US economy create 253,000 jobs in April, investors will be paying extra attention to the inflation data. CPI year-on-year is expected to rise 5.0% which would be the slowest pace in almost 2 years while Core CPI is forecast to cool 5.5% from the 5.6% in the prior month.

Should the report point to further evidence of inflation slowing down, this could reinforce expectations around the Fed pausing rates – ultimately lifting the GBPUSD as the dollar weakens.
If the CPI figures remain sticky, this could compound to last Friday’s strong US jobs report and boost bets around the Fed leaving interest rates higher for longer. Should this boost the dollar, it may drag the GBPUSD lower.

Top-tier UK economic data

On Friday, it will be wise to keep a close eye on the UK Q1 GDP print and latest industrial production figures which could offer additional insight into the health of the UK economy. Growth is expected to stagnate in the first quarter of 2023, expanding 0.2% year-on-year compared to the 0.6% witnessed in the previous quarter. Ultimately, a strong set of figures may boost sentiment towards the UK economy while disappointing numbers are seen fuelling fears over the growth outlook.

GBPUSD confirmed breakout

After securing a solid daily close above the 1.2580 resistance level, this could signal further upside for the GBPUSD. There have been consistently higher highs and higher lows while prices are trading firmly above the 50,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Average. The bullish momentum could pave a path towards 1.2730 and 1.2870, respectively. If prices sink back under 1.2580, bears may target 1.2530 and 1.2380, respectively.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 May

Murrey Math Lines 04.05.2023 (USDJPY, USDCAD)

By RoboForex.com

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

On H4, the quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, revealing the prevalence of an uptrend. The RSI has reached the oversold area. In this situation, a rebound from 6/8 (134.37) is expected, followed by growth to the resistance at 7/8 (135.93). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakout of the support at 6/8 (134.37), which could lead to a trend reversal and fall to the level of 4/8 (131.25).

On M15, the upper line of the VoltyChannel indicator is too far away from the current price, which means growth can only be triggered by a rebound from 6/8 (134.37) on H4.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

On H4, the quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates the prevalence of an uptrend. The RSI is testing the support line. In these circumstances, a test of 7/8 (1.3549) is expected, followed by a rebound from it and growth to the resistance at +1/8 (1.3793). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakout of 7/8 (1.3549), which could lead to a trend reversal and a decline to the support at 6/8 (1.3427).

On M15, after the test of 7/8 (1.3549), further growth of the pair will most probably be confirmed by a breakout of the upper border of VoltyChannel.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

29 Apr

Euro Currency Speculators boost their bullish bets to 133-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 25th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by EuroFX & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as nine out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (5,039 contracts), British Pound (4,537 contracts), Brazilian Real (3,223 contracts), the Australian Dollar (2,894 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (2,442 contracts), the US Dollar Index (226 contracts), Swiss Franc (1,064 contracts), Bitcoin (196 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (652 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-11,875 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (-2,043 contracts) seeing lower bets on the week.

Euro Speculators boost their bullish bets to 133-week high

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the rising bullishness of the speculator’s positioning in the Euro Currency. Euro speculator bets turned from bearish to bullish on September 20th of 2022 and have steadily increased in positive sentiment. The Euro positions have now been above the +100,000 contract threshold for 26 straight weeks, the best streak since 2021.

This week, the large speculative Euro positions went higher for a third consecutive week and for the fifth time in the past six weeks. Euro weekly positions have now increased by a total of +29,444 contracts over these past six weeks. This positive sentiment has pushed the overall bullish standing to the highest level in 133-weeks, dating back to October 6th of 2020.

The Euro exchange rate against the US Dollar has also been on the rise and this week hit it’s highest level since March of 2022 above the 1.11 exchange level. Since late-February, the Euro has had higher weekly closes in seven out of the past nine weeks and is now higher by over 15 percent since it’s multi-decade low of 0.9592 in September.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-25-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	34,441	33	10,739	43	-12,711	56	1,972	38
EUR	772,882	83	169,400	84	-224,437	15	55,037	67
GBP	231,666	56	5,839	74	-10,530	27	4,691	67
JPY	184,041	37	-68,744	27	72,625	71	-3,881	46
CHF	41,736	41	-3,656	45	2,701	49	955	61
CAD	151,786	31	-43,791	14	45,878	87	-2,087	18
AUD	178,757	72	-39,462	48	53,746	59	-14,284	18
NZD	36,603	25	-3,252	45	3,928	56	-676	44
MXN	267,276	61	54,128	90	-58,607	11	4,479	84
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	78,748	78	16,819	57	-16,343	45	-476	40
Bitcoin	14,064	64	-293	72	-296	0	589	26

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (90 percent) and the EuroFX (84 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (74 percent), Bitcoin (72 percent) and the Brazilian Real (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (14 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (27 percent), the US Dollar Index (43 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (45 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (42.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (42.5 percent)
EuroFX (83.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (81.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (74.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (70.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (26.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (33.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (44.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (42.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (13.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (11.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (48.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (45.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (44.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (43.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (89.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (91.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (57.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (53.1 percent)
Bitcoin (71.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (68.4 percent)

British Pound & Swiss Franc top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (20 percent) and the Swiss Franc (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The EuroFX (11 percent), the Japanese Yen (4 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-11 percent), Mexican Peso (-9 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-5.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-3.4 percent)
EuroFX (11.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (6.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (19.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (16.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (3.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (11.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (16.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-2.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-11.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-15.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (0.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-16.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (4.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-25.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (-9.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (66.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (-14.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-21.0 percent)
Bitcoin (-3.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-9.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 10,739 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 226 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,513 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	70.1	10.0	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.9	46.9	9.4
– Net Position:	10,739	-12,711	1,972
– Gross Longs:	24,149	3,432	5,219
– Gross Shorts:	13,410	16,143	3,247
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.8	55.6	38.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.0	6.8	-13.9

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 169,400 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,039 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 164,361 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.5	54.2	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	83.2	5.1
– Net Position:	169,400	-224,437	55,037
– Gross Longs:	243,516	418,842	94,777
– Gross Shorts:	74,116	643,279	39,740
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.7	14.7	66.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.3	-12.7	13.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 5,839 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,537 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,302 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	55.0	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	59.5	11.5
– Net Position:	5,839	-10,530	4,691
– Gross Longs:	59,405	127,306	31,336
– Gross Shorts:	53,566	137,836	26,645
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.0	26.9	67.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.9	-24.6	25.7

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -68,744 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,875 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,869 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	73.5	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.8	34.1	18.6
– Net Position:	-68,744	72,625	-3,881
– Gross Longs:	13,680	135,330	30,358
– Gross Shorts:	82,424	62,705	34,239
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.5	71.1	45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.7	-6.5	14.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,656 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,064 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,720 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.7	44.0	36.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	37.6	34.2
– Net Position:	-3,656	2,701	955
– Gross Longs:	6,556	18,374	15,210
– Gross Shorts:	10,212	15,673	14,255
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.9	49.4	60.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.7	-17.5	14.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -43,791 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,442 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,233 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	61.8	19.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.9	31.6	21.1
– Net Position:	-43,791	45,878	-2,087
– Gross Longs:	24,295	93,784	29,997
– Gross Shorts:	68,086	47,906	32,084
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.7	87.4	18.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.3	6.5	5.7

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -39,462 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,894 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,356 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	55.3	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.4	25.3	18.6
– Net Position:	-39,462	53,746	-14,284
– Gross Longs:	54,241	98,900	18,987
– Gross Shorts:	93,703	45,154	33,271
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.2	59.0	17.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.6	0.5	-3.0

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,252 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 652 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,904 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.7	52.8	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.6	42.1	11.3
– Net Position:	-3,252	3,928	-676
– Gross Longs:	13,070	19,334	3,465
– Gross Shorts:	16,322	15,406	4,141
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	55.7	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.0	-3.4	-0.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 54,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,043 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,171 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.8	47.2	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	69.1	1.1
– Net Position:	54,128	-58,607	4,479
– Gross Longs:	133,098	126,071	7,451
– Gross Shorts:	78,970	184,678	2,972
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.6	11.4	84.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	7.6	8.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,819 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,223 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,596 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.4	44.4	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.0	65.2	5.6
– Net Position:	16,819	-16,343	-476
– Gross Longs:	39,668	34,986	3,942
– Gross Shorts:	22,849	51,329	4,418
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.2	44.6	40.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.6	19.0	-31.8

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -293 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 196 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -489 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.0	2.9	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	70.1	5.0	5.5
– Net Position:	-293	-296	589
– Gross Longs:	9,566	410	1,364
– Gross Shorts:	9,859	706	775
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.8	45.9	26.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	-0.6	4.6

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