By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 21st and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.
*** This data is still a few weeks behind the current data because the CFTC up-to-date data has been delayed due to a cybersecurity event that happened in early February to ION Cleared Derivatives (a subsidiary of ION Markets). This hack of ION has created a problem for the large trader positions to be reported and reconciled. The CFTC has back-filled some data over the past few weeks and will get the data back up to date in the coming weeks.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & Mexican Peso
The COT currency market speculator bets were lower through February 21st as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (4,119 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (2,794 contracts), EuroFX (1,162 contracts), the US Dollar Index (224 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (948 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-6,186 contracts), Canadian Dollar (-2,009 contracts), Brazilian Real (-1,409 contracts), the British Pound (-1,621 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-215 contracts) and Bitcoin (-29 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
| Feb-21-2023 | OI | OI-Index | Spec-Net | Spec-Index | Com-Net | COM-Index | Smalls-Net | Smalls-Index |
|---|
| USD Index | 36,022 | 36 | 12,198 | 45 | -16,640 | 49 | 4,442 | 65 |
| EUR | 789,898 | 97 | 165,068 | 84 | -213,818 | 17 | 48,750 | 57 |
| GBP | 213,502 | 45 | -21,416 | 51 | 37,641 | 60 | -16,225 | 26 |
| JPY | 186,100 | 41 | -34,029 | 48 | 46,889 | 59 | -12,860 | 27 |
| CHF | 39,087 | 33 | -6,520 | 37 | 12,058 | 65 | -5,538 | 39 |
| CAD | 151,896 | 32 | -37,503 | 0 | 39,753 | 100 | -2,250 | 26 |
| AUD | 123,456 | 25 | -24,788 | 62 | 25,049 | 38 | -261 | 52 |
| NZD | 29,888 | 6 | 8,788 | 78 | -9,024 | 25 | 236 | 54 |
| MXN | 277,353 | 86 | -36,873 | 14 | 31,458 | 83 | 5,415 | 90 |
| RUB | 20,930 | 4 | 7,543 | 31 | -7,150 | 69 | -393 | 24 |
| BRL | 47,247 | 36 | 30,533 | 79 | -32,115 | 21 | 1,582 | 80 |
| Bitcoin | 16,501 | 87 | -812 | 63 | 438 | 0 | 374 | 21 |
Strength Scores led by EuroFX & Brazilian Real
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (84 percent) and the Brazilian Real (79 percent) lead the currency markets through February 21st. The New Zealand Dollar (78 percent), Bitcoin (63 percent) and the Australian Dollar (62 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (0 percent) and the Mexican Peso (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (37 percent) and the US Dollar Index (45 percent).
Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (45.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (44.9 percent)
EuroFX (84.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (84.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (50.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (52.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (47.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (51.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (37.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (34.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (0.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (2.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (61.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (58.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (77.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (78.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (14.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (12.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (78.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (80.1 percent)
Bitcoin (62.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (63.3 percent)
EuroFX & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the EuroFX (10 percent) and the Brazilian Real (9 percent) led the past six weeks trends for the currencies through February 21st. The Australian Dollar (8 percent), the Mexican Peso (8 percent) and the British Pound (7 percent) were the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
The Canadian Dollar (-8 percent) led the downside trend scores currently with the US Dollar Index (-7 percent), Bitcoin (-4 percent) and the Japanese Yen (1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-7.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-9.7 percent)
EuroFX (10.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (11.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (6.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (0.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (0.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (11.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (2.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-12.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-7.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-10.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (8.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (6.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (3.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (4.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (8.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (8.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (9.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (4.0 percent)
Bitcoin (-3.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-20.4 percent)
Individual COT Forex Markets:
US Dollar Index Futures:
The US Dollar Index large speculator standing equaled a net position of 12,198 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly lift of 224 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,974 net contracts.
The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent.
| US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 73.5 | 2.5 | 19.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 39.6 | 48.7 | 6.6 |
| – Net Position: | 12,198 | -16,640 | 4,442 |
| – Gross Longs: | 26,469 | 909 | 6,832 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 14,271 | 17,549 | 2,390 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.9 to 1 | 0.1 to 1 | 2.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | | | |
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 45.3 | 49.3 | 65.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | | | |
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -7.2 | 4.2 | 18.6 |
Euro Currency Futures:
The Euro Currency large speculator standing equaled a net position of 165,068 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly boost of 1,162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 163,906 net contracts.
The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.
| EURO Currency Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 29.9 | 56.3 | 11.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 9.0 | 83.4 | 5.4 |
| – Net Position: | 165,068 | -213,818 | 48,750 |
| – Gross Longs: | 236,414 | 444,658 | 91,704 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 71,346 | 658,476 | 42,954 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.3 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 2.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | | | |
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 84.4 | 16.7 | 56.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | | | |
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 10.1 | -9.8 | 2.4 |
British Pound Sterling Futures:
The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing equaled a net position of -21,416 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly lowering of -1,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,795 net contracts.
The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent.
| BRITISH POUND Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 21.3 | 67.0 | 9.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 31.3 | 49.4 | 17.1 |
| – Net Position: | -21,416 | 37,641 | -16,225 |
| – Gross Longs: | 45,475 | 143,077 | 20,231 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 66,891 | 105,436 | 36,456 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | | | |
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 50.6 | 59.7 | 26.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | | | |
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 6.9 | 1.6 | -20.4 |
Japanese Yen Futures:
The Japanese Yen large speculator standing totaled a net position of -34,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly lowering of -6,186 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,843 net contracts.
The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent.
| JAPANESE YEN Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 17.5 | 68.1 | 12.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 35.7 | 42.9 | 19.3 |
| – Net Position: | -34,029 | 46,889 | -12,860 |
| – Gross Longs: | 32,486 | 126,777 | 23,044 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 66,515 | 79,888 | 35,904 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | | | |
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 47.9 | 58.5 | 27.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | | | |
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 0.8 | 6.0 | -27.9 |
Swiss Franc Futures:
The Swiss Franc large speculator standing amounted to a net position of -6,520 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly rise of 948 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,468 net contracts.
The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent.
| SWISS FRANC Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 18.5 | 58.0 | 23.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 35.2 | 27.1 | 37.5 |
| – Net Position: | -6,520 | 12,058 | -5,538 |
| – Gross Longs: | 7,243 | 22,668 | 9,110 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 13,763 | 10,610 | 14,648 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 2.1 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | | | |
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 37.4 | 64.9 | 38.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | | | |
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 2.2 | 6.4 | -15.9 |
Canadian Dollar Futures:
The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing totaled a net position of -37,503 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly reduction of -2,009 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,494 net contracts.
The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.
| CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 14.4 | 59.6 | 23.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 39.1 | 33.4 | 24.5 |
| – Net Position: | -37,503 | 39,753 | -2,250 |
| – Gross Longs: | 21,889 | 90,489 | 34,967 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 59,392 | 50,736 | 37,217 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | | | |
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.0 | 100.0 | 25.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | | | |
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -7.6 | 10.2 | -11.9 |
Australian Dollar Futures:
The Australian Dollar large speculator standing was a net position of -24,788 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly boost of 4,119 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,907 net contracts.
The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.
| AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 31.2 | 49.0 | 17.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 51.3 | 28.8 | 18.0 |
| – Net Position: | -24,788 | 25,049 | -261 |
| – Gross Longs: | 38,492 | 60,543 | 21,994 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 63,280 | 35,494 | 22,255 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | | | |
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 61.9 | 37.6 | 51.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | | | |
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 8.3 | -5.3 | -4.2 |
New Zealand Dollar Futures:
The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing amounted to a net position of 8,788 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly fall of -215 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,003 net contracts.
The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent.
| NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 52.1 | 30.0 | 13.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 22.7 | 60.2 | 12.7 |
| – Net Position: | 8,788 | -9,024 | 236 |
| – Gross Longs: | 15,561 | 8,965 | 4,026 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 6,773 | 17,989 | 3,790 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.3 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | | | |
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 77.7 | 25.2 | 54.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | | | |
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 3.8 | -1.2 | -10.5 |
Mexican Peso Futures:
The Mexican Peso large speculator standing equaled a net position of -36,873 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly advance of 2,794 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,667 net contracts.
The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent.
| MEXICAN PESO Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 55.0 | 41.0 | 3.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 68.3 | 29.7 | 1.2 |
| – Net Position: | -36,873 | 31,458 | 5,415 |
| – Gross Longs: | 152,675 | 113,816 | 8,689 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 189,548 | 82,358 | 3,274 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 2.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | | | |
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 14.0 | 83.0 | 89.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | | | |
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 8.5 | -7.9 | -4.4 |
Brazilian Real Futures:
The Brazilian Real large speculator standing equaled a net position of 30,533 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly lowering of -1,409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,942 net contracts.
The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent.
| BRAZIL REAL Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 74.4 | 17.7 | 7.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 9.7 | 85.7 | 4.6 |
| – Net Position: | 30,533 | -32,115 | 1,582 |
| – Gross Longs: | 35,137 | 8,357 | 3,733 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 4,604 | 40,472 | 2,151 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 7.6 to 1 | 0.2 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | | | |
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 78.6 | 21.4 | 79.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | | | |
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 9.5 | -9.0 | -3.3 |
Bitcoin Futures:
The Bitcoin large speculator standing was a net position of -812 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly lowering of -29 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -783 net contracts.
The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent.
| BITCOIN Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 73.9 | 4.9 | 8.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 78.8 | 2.3 | 6.2 |
| – Net Position: | -812 | 438 | 374 |
| – Gross Longs: | 12,188 | 810 | 1,398 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 13,000 | 372 | 1,024 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 2.2 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | | | |
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 62.8 | 78.5 | 21.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | | | |
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -3.8 | 20.8 | -5.7 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
Article by ForexTime
