Forex and Currency News

Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 69

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Financial News Forex and Currency News

15 Apr

Large Currency Speculators push Euro bullish bets higher to 7-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 11th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (19,945 contracts) with the British Pound (12,395 contracts), Mexican Peso (2,564 contracts), Canadian Dollar (1,930 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (1,269 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-10,704 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-1,058 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-171 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-450 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-842 contracts) and Bitcoin (-507 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Euro bullish bets go higher to 7-week high

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the continued strength of the speculator’s positioning for the Euro. Large speculative Euro currency positions jumped this week by over +19,000 net contracts, marking the highest one-week gain since September. This is the third time Euro positions have risen in the past four weeks and places the current net position at the best level in the past seven weeks.

The Euro, overall, has now been in a continuous bullish standing for the past 30 weeks, dating back to September 20th when the net position flipped from bearish to bullish. It was also in September when the Euro exchange rate hit a multi-decade low against the US Dollar. The Euro fell below the parity level for the first time since 2002 and bottomed out near the 0.9600 exchange level in late-September. Since that bottom, the Euro has bounced back above parity and has risen by over 14 percent to close this week above the 1.1030 exchange rate.

Helping the Euro gain ground against the US Dollar has been the interest rate differential. Last year, the rate differential was in favor of the US Dollar as the Federal Reserve hiked consistently and sharply while the European Central Bank (ECB) lagged behind. This year, investor’s are forecasting an end to the Fed’s hiking campaign while the ECB seeks to continue raising their interest rate to further combat inflation and triggering further Euro bullish calls.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-11-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	33,076	30	13,264	47	-15,012	52	1,748	36
EUR	759,439	78	163,338	81	-212,065	19	48,727	57
GBP	225,292	52	-2,398	67	-5,341	30	7,739	73
JPY	176,822	32	-57,207	34	56,349	63	858	55
CHF	38,272	29	-6,734	37	9,736	61	-3,002	47
CAD	164,875	40	-56,579	2	58,205	96	-1,626	19
AUD	159,441	57	-37,937	50	47,070	54	-9,133	30
NZD	35,806	23	-4,481	41	2,571	53	1,910	74
MXN	260,053	59	60,477	94	-65,515	6	5,038	87
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	43,986	31	12,945	52	-14,593	47	1,648	57
Bitcoin	15,977	81	-1,122	57	373	0	749	30

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (94 percent) and the EuroFX (81 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (67 percent), Bitcoin (57 percent) and the Brazilian Real (52 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (2 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (34 percent) and the Swiss Franc (37 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (47.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (48.5 percent)
EuroFX (81.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (73.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (67.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (56.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (33.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (33.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (36.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (33.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (1.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (0.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (49.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (59.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (41.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (42.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (94.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (92.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (52.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (53.6 percent)
Bitcoin (57.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (66.2 percent)

Mexican Peso & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (72 percent) and the British Pound (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (2 percent) and the Japanese Yen (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-31 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-24 percent), Canadian Dollar (-19 percent) and the Australian Dollar (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (2.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (3.2 percent)
EuroFX (0.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-8.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (18.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (5.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (0.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-14.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (-4.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-3.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-19.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-19.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (-12.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-2.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-31.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-34.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (72.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (71.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (-24.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-21.0 percent)
Bitcoin (-9.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (3.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 13,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -842 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,106 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	78.9	3.0	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.8	48.4	8.7
– Net Position:	13,264	-15,012	1,748
– Gross Longs:	26,090	1,006	4,626
– Gross Shorts:	12,826	16,018	2,878
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.1	51.9	35.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	1.6	-26.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 163,338 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 19,945 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 143,393 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.2	54.2	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	82.1	5.3
– Net Position:	163,338	-212,065	48,727
– Gross Longs:	244,180	411,456	89,357
– Gross Shorts:	80,842	623,521	40,630
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.3	18.8	56.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	-0.1	-1.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,398 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,395 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,793 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.4	55.8	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.4	58.1	10.4
– Net Position:	-2,398	-5,341	7,739
– Gross Longs:	54,928	125,634	31,221
– Gross Shorts:	57,326	130,975	23,482
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.0	30.5	73.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.3	-28.4	40.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -57,207 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,036 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	75.0	17.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.1	43.1	16.7
– Net Position:	-57,207	56,349	858
– Gross Longs:	11,933	132,604	30,405
– Gross Shorts:	69,140	76,255	29,547
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.6	63.1	55.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-6.9	25.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,003 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.9	52.0	31.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.5	26.6	39.3
– Net Position:	-6,734	9,736	-3,002
– Gross Longs:	4,155	19,920	12,050
– Gross Shorts:	10,889	10,184	15,052
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.8	61.0	47.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	-9.4	25.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -56,579 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,930 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,509 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	70.7	17.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.6	35.4	18.6
– Net Position:	-56,579	58,205	-1,626
– Gross Longs:	16,914	116,537	29,091
– Gross Shorts:	73,493	58,332	30,717
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.8	95.8	19.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.1	13.4	1.7

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -37,937 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -10,704 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,233 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	54.2	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.3	24.7	19.3
– Net Position:	-37,937	47,070	-9,133
– Gross Longs:	45,481	86,468	21,588
– Gross Shorts:	83,418	39,398	30,721
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.7	54.0	30.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.8	13.8	-11.5

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -4,481 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -450 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,031 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.6	49.6	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.1	42.4	8.1
– Net Position:	-4,481	2,571	1,910
– Gross Longs:	13,097	17,758	4,811
– Gross Shorts:	17,578	15,187	2,901
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.4	52.5	73.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.4	20.6	32.7

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 60,477 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,564 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,913 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.4	44.4	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	69.6	1.0
– Net Position:	60,477	-65,515	5,038
– Gross Longs:	136,355	115,499	7,520
– Gross Shorts:	75,878	181,014	2,482
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.4	6.5	87.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	72.5	-68.3	-0.9

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 12,945 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,058 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,003 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	70.0	20.3	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.6	53.4	5.6
– Net Position:	12,945	-14,593	1,648
– Gross Longs:	30,795	8,916	4,132
– Gross Shorts:	17,850	23,509	2,484
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.3	46.7	57.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.0	23.2	-0.0

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -507 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -615 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.5	5.4	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	83.5	3.0	5.0
– Net Position:	-1,122	373	749
– Gross Longs:	12,216	857	1,542
– Gross Shorts:	13,338	484	793
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.4	75.7	30.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	3.9	9.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

13 Apr

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 13.04.2023 (EURUSD, USDJPY, EURGBP)

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

On H4 near the resistance, EURUSD has formed a Harami reversal pattern. The instrument may now go by the reversal signal in a descending wave. The target for the correction might be 1.0935. However, the pair may grow to 1.1040 and continue the uptrend without testing the support.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

On H4, the pair has formed a Hammer reversal pattern. The instrument is now going by the reversal signal in an ascending wave. The target for the growth might be 134.10. However, the price may pull back to 132.70 and continue the uptrend after correcting to the support.

EURGBP, “Euro vs Great Britain Pound”

On H4, EURGBP has formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern. Currently, the instrument is going by the reversal signal in a descending wave. The target for the decline might be the support at 0.8770. Upon testing and breaking it, the price could continue the downtrend. However, the quotes may correct to 0.8815 before declining.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

13 Apr

FX Majors Break Through Key Levels

By ForexTime

Markets love round numbers! They act as important psychological markers and can prompt strong reactions in price action as well as grabbing the headlines. These levels can also act as decisive areas of resistance and support on a technical basis, with 1000s of orders to buy and sell usually located in these critical zones of confluence.

The current dollar slide has seen the world’s reserve currency fall over 4% from its early March peak. This has pushed two of the most popular majors similarly through significant round numbers. EUR/USD has taken out 1.10 while GBP/USD has advanced through 1.25 in early trade this morning.

The latter needs to close decisively above the year-to-date early February top at 1.1032 to cement this move north. Trend oscillators across various timeframes show the move still has legs. Cable bulls are eyeing up a weekly finish above the April peak at 1.2525 for more upside.

These moves come after two big risk events on yesterday’s calendar which has prompted dollar driven selling over any major strength in either the euro or sterling. That said, interest rates have been narrowing over the past few weeks between euro, UK and US rates as the Fed is increasingly seen as being near the end of its rate hiking cycle, while the ECB and the Bank of England still have some work to do.

CPI and Fed Minutes not helping USD

The marquee risk event of the week hit our screens yesterday with US headline inflation data falling to 5% in March while the core prints remained relatively hot and sticky. It is the monthly core reading of 0.4% which may still concern the Fed at its May meeting, as it is more than double what many economists reckon is needed to average over time to bring the annual rate of core inflation back to the central bank’s 2% target. Money markets didn’t budge a great deal after the data release, moving modestly lower to around a 66% chance of a 25bp rate hike from 75% before CPI. Analysts also note that a lot of the current price pressures are down to shelter costs which are backward-looking and set to turn lower in the coming months.

Also, important yesterday was the release of the FOMC minutes from its March meeting which gave a nod to the recent stress in the banking sector as tighter lending conditions are seen as a material factor. This is because they typically end up with higher unemployment, a recession and ultimately rate cuts. The ”r” word was actually also mentioned in the meeting minutes as a mild recession is now part of the Fed’ baseline scenario. It seems the window for a soft landing is closing rapidly with the first few weeks in May and numerous central bank meetings to determine if the dollar sinks below its February low at 100.82 on the DXY.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

12 Apr

Murrey Math Lines 11.04.2023 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD)

By RoboForex.com

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

On H4, the quotes are under the 200-day Moving Average, indicating the prevalence of a downtrend. The RSI is testing the resistance line. In this situation, a downward breakout of 5/8 (0.6652) is expected, after which the price could drop to the support at 4/8 (0.6591). The scenario can be canceled if the quotes rise above the resistance at 6/8 (0.6713), which can lead to a trend reversal and growth of the pair to 7/8 (0.6774).

On M15, the decline in the price can be additionally supported by a breakaway of the lower line of the VoltyChannel indicator.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

On the NZDUSD chart, the situation is similar. On H4, the quotes are under the 200-day Moving Average, revealing the prevalence of a downtrend, and the RSI is testing the resistance line. In these circumstances, a downwards breakout of 4/8 (0.6225) is to be expected, after which the price could fall to the support at 2/8 (0.6164). The scenario can be canceled by the price rising above the resistance at 5/8 (0.6256), which can end up in a trend reversal and growth of the pair to 7/8 (0.6317).

On M15, the lower line of VoltyChannel is broken, which confirms the downtrend and increases the probability of further price falling.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

10 Apr

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD: Consolidation Range and Potential Directional Movements

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD currency pair is starting the new week of April balanced, hovering around 1.0900. Market activity was slowed down during the Easter holidays in the US and Europe, but investors are gradually returning to trades.

Last Friday, the US labor market statistics were released, and while they came out almost unnoticed, market participants will have a chance to account for the data in the quotes later. The unemployment rate in March saw a decrease to 3.5%, which was better than expected. Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) rose by 236 thousand against the forecasted 228 thousand and 326 thousand previously. The data from February were revised and came out better, which is a positive signal. The average hourly wage also grew by a stable 0.3% m/m.

Although for now, the risk that the economy could slow down has not found any reflection in the employment sector, this margin of safety is unlikely to last long.

On the H4 chart, the EUR/USD currency pair has performed an impulse of decline to 1.0875. Currently, the market is forming a consolidation range under this level. There is a possibility of growth to 1.0930, followed by a decline to 1.0760, from where the wave could continue to 1.0720. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, which shows that its signal line is above the zero mark and directed strictly down to renew the lows.

On the H1 chart, the EUR/USD currency pair has completed a structure of the declining wave to 1.0875. At the moment, a consolidation range is forming above this level. The price could break the range upwards and correct to 1.0924. Then, a decline to 1.0820 could follow, with the target being local. This scenario is technically confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, which shows that its signal line is near 50, expected to grow to 80, and then drop to 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

08 Apr

Large Currency Speculators drop their Canadian dollar bets to 220-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 4th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (9,291 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (8,634 contracts), Australian Dollar (8,120 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (2,579 contracts), US Dollar Index (1,387 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (-9,480 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-1,632 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (-1,684 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-1,929 contracts), Japanese Yen (-3,061 contracts) and Bitcoin (-339 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Large Currency Speculators drop their Canadian dollar bets to 220-week low

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the continued bearishness of the speculator’s positioning in the Canadian dollar.

Large speculative Canadian dollar positions fell this week for the fourth consecutive week and for the seventh time in the past nine weeks. Speculators have now added a total of -29,307 net contracts to the overall bearish position in just the last four weeks. This bearishness has pushed the CAD speculator net position (currently at -58,509 contracts) to the most bearish level of the past 220 weeks, dating back to January 15th of 2019.

Hurting the Canadian dollar’s appeal has been the recent pause in interest rate rises by the Bank of Canada (after 8 rate hikes previously) as well as the slide in the price of Crude Oil. The Canadian dollar’s exchange rate versus the US dollar has been in a downtrend since hitting a multi-year high in May of 2022 at over 0.8280. The CAD front month futures price closed this week at the 0.7431 exchange and has now risen for two straight weeks.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-04-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	32,076	28	14,106	48	-16,154	50	2,048	39
EUR	747,095	74	143,393	74	-194,787	25	51,394	61
GBP	224,690	52	-14,793	56	8,881	40	5,912	70
JPY	178,828	35	-57,036	34	52,266	61	4,770	63
CHF	37,177	26	-8,003	33	10,822	63	-2,819	48
CAD	169,138	43	-58,509	0	58,148	96	361	24
AUD	151,242	50	-27,233	60	36,837	46	-9,604	29
NZD	36,080	24	-4,031	43	2,697	53	1,334	67
MXN	250,403	55	57,913	92	-63,177	8	5,264	89
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	35,244	19	14,003	54	-15,562	46	1,559	56
Bitcoin	13,380	61	-615	66	-183	0	798	31

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (92 percent) and the EuroFX (74 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Bitcoin (66 percent), Australian Dollar (60 percent) and the British Pound (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (48.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (46.1 percent)
EuroFX (73.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (74.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (56.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (48.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (33.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (35.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (33.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (38.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (0.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (1.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (59.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (52.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (42.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (35.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (92.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (85.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (53.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (65.7 percent)
Bitcoin (66.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (72.1 percent)

Mexican Peso & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (72 percent) and the British Pound (6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (3 percent) and Bitcoin (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-35 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-21 percent), Canadian Dollar (-20 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (3.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (1.2 percent)
EuroFX (-8.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-7.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (5.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-3.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (-14.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-16.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (-3.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (3.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-19.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-19.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (-2.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-6.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-34.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-42.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (71.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (67.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (-21.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-10.8 percent)
Bitcoin (3.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (8.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,106 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,719 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.7	1.5	14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.8	51.8	8.3
– Net Position:	14,106	-16,154	2,048
– Gross Longs:	25,574	473	4,703
– Gross Shorts:	11,468	16,627	2,655
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.5	50.1	38.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.2	0.8	-26.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 143,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,632 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 145,025 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	55.6	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.0	81.6	5.4
– Net Position:	143,393	-194,787	51,394
– Gross Longs:	225,416	415,104	91,568
– Gross Shorts:	82,023	609,891	40,174
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.7	24.7	61.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.4	6.4	4.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -14,793 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,291 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.7	59.5	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	55.6	11.3
– Net Position:	-14,793	8,881	5,912
– Gross Longs:	46,415	133,802	31,247
– Gross Shorts:	61,208	124,921	25,335
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.3	40.1	69.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-19.5	43.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -57,036 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,061 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,975 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	74.6	18.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.3	45.3	15.3
– Net Position:	-57,036	52,266	4,770
– Gross Longs:	11,523	133,327	32,150
– Gross Shorts:	68,559	81,061	27,380
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.7	61.2	63.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	2.6	35.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -8,003 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,929 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,074 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	53.9	32.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	24.8	40.5
– Net Position:	-8,003	10,822	-2,819
– Gross Longs:	2,958	20,038	12,249
– Gross Shorts:	10,961	9,216	15,068
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.4	62.8	48.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.9	-2.0	9.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -58,509 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,684 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,825 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	70.2	18.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.4	35.9	18.2
– Net Position:	-58,509	58,148	361
– Gross Longs:	16,607	118,790	31,176
– Gross Shorts:	75,116	60,642	30,815
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	95.7	23.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.6	12.5	5.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -27,233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,353 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	53.1	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.9	28.7	19.3
– Net Position:	-27,233	36,837	-9,604
– Gross Longs:	46,687	80,257	19,523
– Gross Shorts:	73,920	43,420	29,127
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.6	46.4	29.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.3	8.8	-22.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,031 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,579 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,610 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.6	47.3	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.8	39.8	8.8
– Net Position:	-4,031	2,697	1,334
– Gross Longs:	14,280	17,050	4,501
– Gross Shorts:	18,311	14,353	3,167
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.7	52.8	67.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.7	27.6	12.6

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 57,913 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,634 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,279 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.9	45.9	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.7	71.1	1.0
– Net Position:	57,913	-63,177	5,264
– Gross Longs:	127,371	114,977	7,808
– Gross Shorts:	69,458	178,154	2,544
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.5	8.1	88.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	71.8	-67.7	-0.9

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,003 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,480 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,483 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	69.7	19.8	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.0	63.9	6.1
– Net Position:	14,003	-15,562	1,559
– Gross Longs:	24,576	6,964	3,704
– Gross Shorts:	10,573	22,526	2,145
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.6	45.5	56.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.0	20.4	-0.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -615 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -339 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -276 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.8	2.3	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	82.4	3.6	4.9
– Net Position:	-615	-183	798
– Gross Longs:	10,415	302	1,458
– Gross Shorts:	11,030	485	660
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.2	50.9	31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-27.6	9.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

07 Apr

Dollar steadies near long-term support

By ForexTime

The greenback has tumbled since topping out and printing a “doji” candle around a month ago at 105.88 on the widely followed DXY index. The low print yesterday at 101.41 was down over 4% from that peak as the USD has struggled with a huge reset of Fed rate hike bets. Policymakers are very much data dependent with much focus on the non-farm payrolls report out tomorrow amid holiday-thin markets and next week’s US CPI data. Strong support should be found around the early February bottom at 100.82.

Most of the economic releases this week have played into the slower growth narrative with ISM data generally disappointing and the JOLTS job vacancy numbers coming in much lower than expected. In fact, it was the lowest print since May 2021 and jolted the market ahead of the marquee NFP report. Consensus sees around 240,000 job gains in March with the jobless rate sticking at 3.6% and average hourly earnings moving a tick higher to a relatively benign 0.3%. The headline number has continued to surprise to the upside over recent months with 311k new jobs created in February and only marginal revisions.

The odds have flipped back and forth as to whether the FOMC hikes rates by 25bps or stand pat at its meeting at the start of next month. Currently, money markets give the no change camp a 56% chance while a hike is seen as a 44% probability. Of course, Fed rate hike expectations have changed markedly since a month ago before the banking turmoil when investors were seeing a peak, terminal rate above 5.5%. Now, this rate is seen close to where we stand at the moment at 4.75%, with around 80bp of rate cuts into year end.

Cable consolidates after breaking higher

Sterling is managing to hold near its recent highs and above key support. The pound pushed north on Tuesday to its highest level since last June. Certainly, the softer dollar is a boon and comments from a BoE official encouraged bulls to advance beyond key resistance at the year-to-date top at 1.2447. Huw Pill, the bank’s chief economist, said that the MPC still cannot be sure that it has raised interest rates enough to tame inflation. He voted last month to lift rates to 4.25%, its eleventh increase since the start of the hiking cycle in December 2021. Money market currently forecast over 50bps of additional hikes by September, before the bank stops tighening policy.

A weekly close above the Janaury peak at 1.2447 is important for buyers to build on this week’s upside bullish momentum. A long-term move towards the 200-week SMA above 1.28 could be on the cards if that happens. Near-term support below the February top is 1.2274.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

06 Apr

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 06.04.2023 (XAUUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD)

By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the resistance level. Currently, the instrument is going by the reversal signal in a descending wave. The target for the correction might be 1990.00. After testing the support, the price could rebound from it and continue the uptrend. However, the quotes may grow to 2050.00 without testing the support.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

On H4, near the resistance NZDUSD has formed a Harami reversal pattern. Currently, the instrument is going by the reversal signal in a descending wave. The target for the pullback might be 0.6260. After a rebound from the support, the quotes could continue the uptrend. However, the price may grow to 0.6340 and continue the uptrend without a test of the support.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

On H4, near the support level GBPUSD has formed a Harami reversal pattern. Currently, the instrument could go by the reversal signal in an ascending wave. The target for the growth might be 1.2500. However, the price may pull back to 1.2400 and continue the uptrend after correcting to the support.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 Apr

EUR/USD Struggles to Maintain Balance Amidst Mixed Market Signals

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair is trading close to the 1.0900 level on the first Tuesday of April. The market is taking into consideration the latest data on the Core PCE index, which grew by only 0.3% m/m in February, lower than the expected figures. The year-to-year data also dropped by 5.0%, which could be a reason for the Federal Reserve System to pause in its monetary policy tightening.

Despite the fact that no meetings of the Fed management are scheduled for April, investors will keep a close eye on important statistics from the US this week. This includes the PMI in services and production, the factory orders report, and the employment market statistics of last month.

Looking at the technical analysis, the EUR/USD pair has formed a structure of a declining impulse to 1.0788 on H4, and the market is currently consolidating above this level. There is a possibility of a link of growth to 1.0850, followed by a decline to 1.0707, from where the wave could extend to 1.0595. The MACD confirms this scenario, with its signal line above zero and aiming downwards to renew the lows.

On H1, the EUR/USD pair has completed the structure of a declining wave to 1.0788, and a consolidation range is forming above this level. The price is expected to break the range upwards, reaching 1.0850, and then decline to 1.0697. The target is local, and this is only half of the declining wave. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line near 50, expected to grow to 80 and then fall to 20.

Overall, the market is closely monitoring the data releases from the US this week and waiting for further signals from the Federal Reserve System to make a weighted decision on its monetary policy.

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