Forex and Currency News

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Mid-Week Technical Outlook: Breakouts

Today’s big event and potential market shaker will be the latest US inflation data which could offer fresh insight into the Federal Reserve’s next move.

As the countdown to the April CPI report enters its final hours, here are a selection of technical setups to keep an eye on.

Dollar Index trapped within range

After swinging within a range over the past few weeks, could the Dollar Index be gearing up for a breakout? Support can be found at 100.72 and resistance at 102.34. A bullish break above 102.34 could inspire an incline towards 103.00. If prices slip back under 100.72, bears may take prices towards 100.00.

EURUSD edges towards support level

It is the same old story for the EURUSD with prices trapped within a range. Support can be found around 1.0912 and resistance at 1.1075. Bears seem to be making a move, dragging prices closer toward the support. However, the pending US inflation report could heavily influence the currency pair’s short-term outlook. A bearish breakout under 1.0912 could open the doors toward 1.0845 – where the 50-day SMA resides.

GBPUSD steady above 1.2600

Prices remain firmly bullish on the daily charts as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows. The recent breakout above 1.2580 has opened the doors to higher levels with 1.2730 and 1.2870 acting as key points of interest. Should prices slip back under 1.2580, bears may target 1.2530 and 1.2380, respectively.

USDJPY lingers above 135.00

Despite breaking above the 135.00 resistance level, the USDJPY looks pressured on the daily charts. More resistance can be found around 137.00, where the 200-day SMA resides, and 137.77. If prices end up slipping back under 135.00, the USDJPY could test 133.70, 132.90, and 131.20.

SPX500_m remains rangebound

The SPX500_m needs a potent fundamental spark to trigger a bullish or bearish breakout. Support can be found at 4050 and resistance at 4180. A break below 4050 may open the doors towards 4000. If bulls push prices beyond 4180, the index may target levels not seen since August 2022 around 4280.

NQ100_m bounces within a range

It feels like most markets are on standby, waiting for the next big catalyst to trigger a big move. The NQ100_m remains in a range with support found at 12800 and resistance at 13300. A breakout could be on the horizon.

Gold remains a choppy affair

The precious metal is likely to be heavily influenced by the pending US CPI report. A move back above $2047 may open the doors toward the 2023 high at $2063. If prices slip back under $2015, this could signal a selloff towards $2000.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

08 May

Trade Of The Week: GBPUSD Primed For Further Upside?

By ForexTime

The GBPUSD hijacked our attention this morning after hitting a fresh 2023 high.

Sterling has become the best performing G10 currency year-to-date, gaining roughly 4.7% against the dollar thanks to fundamental and technical forces.

On the fundamental side, pound bulls remain supported by encouraging UK economic data, BoE rate hike expectations and a weaker dollar. Taking a glance at the technicals, prices are firmly bullish on the weekly timeframe with the next major resistance levels around the 100 and 200-week Simple Moving Averages.

This could be a volatile week for the GBPUSD and here are 4 reasons why…

BoE Super Thursday

The Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision will be on Thursday 11th May.

This will be accompanied by the minutes of the meeting and the quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR), making it a Super Thursday combo.

Markets widely expect the BoE to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, taking the key rate to 4.5%. Given how UK inflation remains in double digits at 10.1% and strong wage growth, this is unlikely to be the last rate hike from the BoE. Investors will be paying very close attention to the minutes, quarterly MPR and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s press conference for fresh clues on the central bank’s next move.

If the BoE strikes a hawkish note and signals further rate hikes in the face of stubborn inflation, this could boost the GBPUSD higher
A cautious sounding BoE that hints at potentially pausing rate hikes could send the Pound tumbling.

US April CPI report

Before the BoE rate decision, much attention will be directed towards the April US consumer price index (CPI) report published on Wednesday. After last Friday’s robust NFP report that saw the US economy create 253,000 jobs in April, investors will be paying extra attention to the inflation data. CPI year-on-year is expected to rise 5.0% which would be the slowest pace in almost 2 years while Core CPI is forecast to cool 5.5% from the 5.6% in the prior month.

Should the report point to further evidence of inflation slowing down, this could reinforce expectations around the Fed pausing rates – ultimately lifting the GBPUSD as the dollar weakens.
If the CPI figures remain sticky, this could compound to last Friday’s strong US jobs report and boost bets around the Fed leaving interest rates higher for longer. Should this boost the dollar, it may drag the GBPUSD lower.

Top-tier UK economic data

On Friday, it will be wise to keep a close eye on the UK Q1 GDP print and latest industrial production figures which could offer additional insight into the health of the UK economy. Growth is expected to stagnate in the first quarter of 2023, expanding 0.2% year-on-year compared to the 0.6% witnessed in the previous quarter. Ultimately, a strong set of figures may boost sentiment towards the UK economy while disappointing numbers are seen fuelling fears over the growth outlook.

GBPUSD confirmed breakout

After securing a solid daily close above the 1.2580 resistance level, this could signal further upside for the GBPUSD. There have been consistently higher highs and higher lows while prices are trading firmly above the 50,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Average. The bullish momentum could pave a path towards 1.2730 and 1.2870, respectively. If prices sink back under 1.2580, bears may target 1.2530 and 1.2380, respectively.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 May

Murrey Math Lines 04.05.2023 (USDJPY, USDCAD)

By RoboForex.com

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

On H4, the quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, revealing the prevalence of an uptrend. The RSI has reached the oversold area. In this situation, a rebound from 6/8 (134.37) is expected, followed by growth to the resistance at 7/8 (135.93). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakout of the support at 6/8 (134.37), which could lead to a trend reversal and fall to the level of 4/8 (131.25).

On M15, the upper line of the VoltyChannel indicator is too far away from the current price, which means growth can only be triggered by a rebound from 6/8 (134.37) on H4.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

On H4, the quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates the prevalence of an uptrend. The RSI is testing the support line. In these circumstances, a test of 7/8 (1.3549) is expected, followed by a rebound from it and growth to the resistance at +1/8 (1.3793). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakout of 7/8 (1.3549), which could lead to a trend reversal and a decline to the support at 6/8 (1.3427).

On M15, after the test of 7/8 (1.3549), further growth of the pair will most probably be confirmed by a breakout of the upper border of VoltyChannel.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

29 Apr

Euro Currency Speculators boost their bullish bets to 133-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 25th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by EuroFX & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as nine out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (5,039 contracts), British Pound (4,537 contracts), Brazilian Real (3,223 contracts), the Australian Dollar (2,894 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (2,442 contracts), the US Dollar Index (226 contracts), Swiss Franc (1,064 contracts), Bitcoin (196 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (652 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-11,875 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (-2,043 contracts) seeing lower bets on the week.

Euro Speculators boost their bullish bets to 133-week high

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the rising bullishness of the speculator’s positioning in the Euro Currency. Euro speculator bets turned from bearish to bullish on September 20th of 2022 and have steadily increased in positive sentiment. The Euro positions have now been above the +100,000 contract threshold for 26 straight weeks, the best streak since 2021.

This week, the large speculative Euro positions went higher for a third consecutive week and for the fifth time in the past six weeks. Euro weekly positions have now increased by a total of +29,444 contracts over these past six weeks. This positive sentiment has pushed the overall bullish standing to the highest level in 133-weeks, dating back to October 6th of 2020.

The Euro exchange rate against the US Dollar has also been on the rise and this week hit it’s highest level since March of 2022 above the 1.11 exchange level. Since late-February, the Euro has had higher weekly closes in seven out of the past nine weeks and is now higher by over 15 percent since it’s multi-decade low of 0.9592 in September.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-25-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	34,441	33	10,739	43	-12,711	56	1,972	38
EUR	772,882	83	169,400	84	-224,437	15	55,037	67
GBP	231,666	56	5,839	74	-10,530	27	4,691	67
JPY	184,041	37	-68,744	27	72,625	71	-3,881	46
CHF	41,736	41	-3,656	45	2,701	49	955	61
CAD	151,786	31	-43,791	14	45,878	87	-2,087	18
AUD	178,757	72	-39,462	48	53,746	59	-14,284	18
NZD	36,603	25	-3,252	45	3,928	56	-676	44
MXN	267,276	61	54,128	90	-58,607	11	4,479	84
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	78,748	78	16,819	57	-16,343	45	-476	40
Bitcoin	14,064	64	-293	72	-296	0	589	26

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (90 percent) and the EuroFX (84 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (74 percent), Bitcoin (72 percent) and the Brazilian Real (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (14 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (27 percent), the US Dollar Index (43 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (45 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (42.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (42.5 percent)
EuroFX (83.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (81.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (74.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (70.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (26.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (33.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (44.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (42.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (13.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (11.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (48.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (45.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (44.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (43.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (89.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (91.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (57.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (53.1 percent)
Bitcoin (71.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (68.4 percent)

British Pound & Swiss Franc top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (20 percent) and the Swiss Franc (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The EuroFX (11 percent), the Japanese Yen (4 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-11 percent), Mexican Peso (-9 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-5.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-3.4 percent)
EuroFX (11.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (6.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (19.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (16.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (3.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (11.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (16.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-2.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-11.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-15.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (0.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-16.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (4.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-25.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (-9.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (66.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (-14.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-21.0 percent)
Bitcoin (-3.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-9.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 10,739 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 226 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,513 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	70.1	10.0	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.9	46.9	9.4
– Net Position:	10,739	-12,711	1,972
– Gross Longs:	24,149	3,432	5,219
– Gross Shorts:	13,410	16,143	3,247
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.8	55.6	38.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.0	6.8	-13.9

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 169,400 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,039 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 164,361 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.5	54.2	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	83.2	5.1
– Net Position:	169,400	-224,437	55,037
– Gross Longs:	243,516	418,842	94,777
– Gross Shorts:	74,116	643,279	39,740
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.7	14.7	66.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.3	-12.7	13.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 5,839 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,537 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,302 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	55.0	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	59.5	11.5
– Net Position:	5,839	-10,530	4,691
– Gross Longs:	59,405	127,306	31,336
– Gross Shorts:	53,566	137,836	26,645
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.0	26.9	67.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.9	-24.6	25.7

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -68,744 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,875 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,869 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	73.5	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.8	34.1	18.6
– Net Position:	-68,744	72,625	-3,881
– Gross Longs:	13,680	135,330	30,358
– Gross Shorts:	82,424	62,705	34,239
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.5	71.1	45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.7	-6.5	14.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,656 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,064 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,720 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.7	44.0	36.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	37.6	34.2
– Net Position:	-3,656	2,701	955
– Gross Longs:	6,556	18,374	15,210
– Gross Shorts:	10,212	15,673	14,255
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.9	49.4	60.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.7	-17.5	14.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -43,791 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,442 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,233 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	61.8	19.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.9	31.6	21.1
– Net Position:	-43,791	45,878	-2,087
– Gross Longs:	24,295	93,784	29,997
– Gross Shorts:	68,086	47,906	32,084
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.7	87.4	18.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.3	6.5	5.7

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -39,462 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,894 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,356 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	55.3	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.4	25.3	18.6
– Net Position:	-39,462	53,746	-14,284
– Gross Longs:	54,241	98,900	18,987
– Gross Shorts:	93,703	45,154	33,271
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.2	59.0	17.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.6	0.5	-3.0

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,252 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 652 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,904 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.7	52.8	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.6	42.1	11.3
– Net Position:	-3,252	3,928	-676
– Gross Longs:	13,070	19,334	3,465
– Gross Shorts:	16,322	15,406	4,141
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	55.7	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.0	-3.4	-0.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 54,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,043 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,171 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.8	47.2	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	69.1	1.1
– Net Position:	54,128	-58,607	4,479
– Gross Longs:	133,098	126,071	7,451
– Gross Shorts:	78,970	184,678	2,972
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.6	11.4	84.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	7.6	8.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,819 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,223 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,596 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.4	44.4	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.0	65.2	5.6
– Net Position:	16,819	-16,343	-476
– Gross Longs:	39,668	34,986	3,942
– Gross Shorts:	22,849	51,329	4,418
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.2	44.6	40.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.6	19.0	-31.8

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -293 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 196 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -489 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.0	2.9	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	70.1	5.0	5.5
– Net Position:	-293	-296	589
– Gross Longs:	9,566	410	1,364
– Gross Shorts:	9,859	706	775
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.8	45.9	26.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	-0.6	4.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

24 Apr

US Dollar is Under Pressure Due to the Fed

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD started the final week of April with stable moves near 1.0980.

In the near term, the market’s focus was on the upcoming US Federal Reserve System meeting, which will end on 3 May. Monetary policymakers are expected to further raise interest rates by 25 base points, although the focus will be on the future rate trajectory.

Investors believe the rate will remain unchanged until July and will drop by the end of the year. However, the state of the US economy might hinder this prediction. The latest statistics have shown that some sectors of the economy remain resilient, and inflation is declining.

The changes in the interest rate by the end of the year might turn out different from market expectations. At the same time, the market moods are quite vigorous.

On the H4 chart, the EUR/USD pair has corrected to 1.0995. The market is now forming a consolidation range under this level. The price is expected to break the range downwards and form a descending wave structure to 1.0886. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD: its signal line is above zero, directed strictly downwards to renew the lows.

On the H1 chart, the EUR/USD pair continues developing a consolidation range around the level of 1.0980. An exit from the range downwards is expected, followed by a descending wave structure to 1.0940. The target is the first one. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is under 20, with growth to 50 expected, followed by a decline to the new lows of the indicator.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

24 Apr

Murrey Math Lines 24.04.2023 (EURUSD, GBPUSD)

By RoboForex.com

Brent

On H4, EURUSD quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, which reveals the prevalence of an uptrend. The RSI is testing the support line. In this situation, the price could break 2/8 (1.0986) and grow to the resistance at 3/8 (1.1108). The scenario can be canceled by a downward breakout of 1/8 (1.0864), which might lead to a trend reversal and falling to the support at 0/8 (1.0742).

On M15, growth can be additionally supported by a breakout of the upper line of the VoltyChannel indicator.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

On the GBPUSD chart, the situation is similar. On H4, the quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, which reveals the prevalence of an uptrend, and the RSI is testing the support line. In this situation, the quotes could rise above 6/8 (1.2451) and reach the resistance at 7/8 (1.2573). The scenario can be canceled by a downward breakout of 5/8 (1.2329), which could also lead to a trend reversal and make the pair drop to the support at 4/8 (1.2207).

On M15, a new breakout of the upper line of VoltyChannel will increase the probability of price growth to 7/8 (1.2573) on H4.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

24 Apr

Trade Of The Week: USDJPY Primed For Heavy Event Week

By ForexTime

Watch this space as the USDJPY could end April with a bang!

Later this week, investors will be served a super combo of top-tier economic data combined with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate decision. With so much going on over the next few days, it may be wise to fasten your seatbelts as volatility could be on the horizon.

It has been a rough month for the Japanese Yen. The currency was an easy target for other G10 counterparts as the BoJ continued its ultra-low interest rates as expectations grew over the Fed raising rates in May. Easing fears over a global banking crisis has also contributed to the Yen’s woes with the improving sentiment directing investors toward riskier assets.

Looking at the technicals, the USDJPY was trapped within a range last week with support at 133.70 and resistance at 135.00. Prices are trading above the 50 and 100-day SMA while the MACD trades to the upside. However, the currency pair seems to be slowly approaching overbought conditions.

The USDJPY could be gearing up for a major move and here are 3 reasons why…

Bank of Japan rate decision

The Bank of Japan’s first policy meeting under Governor Zauo Ueda will be the main risk event for the Yen on Friday.

Despite Japan’s consumer inflation holding above the central’s target, the BoJ is widely expected to maintain rates at -0.1% and keep its yield-curve control settings unchanged. Policymakers may be reluctant to act too soon given Japan’s fragile recovery and lingering uncertainty over the banking crisis overseas. However, any signal from Ueda that the central bank could turn neutral on the forward guidance could sow the seeds for tighter policy – ultimately boosting the Yen.

It will be wise to also keep a close eye on Japan’s latest CPI, Industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment figures which could provide fresh insight into the health of the economy. A hot inflation print coupled with strong data may fuel speculation around the BoJ pivoting down the line. Alternatively, a soft inflation report and disappointing data could strengthen the argument around extended periods of ultra-loose monetary policy.

Earnings + key US economic reports

Some of the largest companies in the world will be reporting their earnings this week which could trigger significant volatility across financial markets. If the earnings paint an overall positive picture, this could boost risk appetite at the expense of safe havens like the Yen. However, a set of disappointing earnings could rekindle risk aversion, boosting attraction for the Yen and other safe-haven destinations.

There are some major releases from the US economy ranging from the April consumer confidence data, Q1 GDP figures, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure. First quarter US GDP is expected to moderate from the 2.6% in the previous quarter while persistent price pressures may be evident in Friday’s core PCE data which should highlight why policymakers remain concerned. Ultimately, if the data supports bets around the Fed keeping interest rates higher for longer, this may propel the USDJPY higher.

Bulls and bears engaged in tug of war

Taking a look at the technical picture, there seems to be a tussle between bulls and bears on the daily timeframe with a potent fundamental spark needed to shift the balance of power in one direction. A solid breakout and daily close above 135.00 could encourage a move towards levels not seen since early March at 137.00 – a level where the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resides. Should prices slip below 133.70, the USDJPY could decline towards 132.90 and 131.20, respectively.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

23 Apr

Currency Speculators trim US Dollar Index bets to lowest level in 93-weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 18th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (10,346 contracts) with the British Pound (3,700 contracts), the Swiss Franc (2,014 contracts), the EuroFX (1,023 contracts), Brazilian Real (651 contracts), Bitcoin (633 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (577 contracts) and the Japanese Yen (338 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Mexican Peso (-4,306 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (-4,419 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-2,751 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Speculators reduce US Dollar Index bets to lowest level in 93-weeks

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the increased bearishness of the speculator’s positioning in the US Dollar Index.

Large speculative US Dollar Index positions fell this week for a second consecutive week and for the third time in the past four weeks. Speculators have now subtracted a total of -3,631 net contracts from the overall position over the last four weeks. This bearishness has pushed the US Dollar Index speculator net position (currently at +10,513 contracts) to the lowest level of the past 93 weeks, dating back to July 6th of 2021.

Overall, the US Dollar speculator position has been in bullish territory dating back to June 29th of 2021 with the most bullish point of the cycle taking place on June 21st of 2022 with a high of +45,010 contracts. Since then, speculator positions have slowly eroded and have now been under the +20,000 net contract level for the past 18 weeks in a row.

The US Dollar Index futures price has been on the defensive as well with this week being the first weekly advance over the past eight weeks. The front-month futures price closed this week around 101.50 and is down around 4 percent since February while also being down over 10 percent since October.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-18-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	34,865	34	10,513	42	-11,955	57	1,442	32
EUR	766,374	80	164,361	82	-213,285	18	48,924	57
GBP	224,536	52	1,302	70	-7,995	29	6,693	71
JPY	177,507	33	-56,869	34	61,645	66	-4,776	44
CHF	40,870	38	-4,720	42	3,386	51	1,334	62
CAD	148,638	29	-46,233	11	42,194	85	4,039	32
AUD	159,708	57	-42,356	46	50,557	57	-8,201	32
NZD	33,377	16	-3,904	43	3,717	55	187	54
MXN	267,698	61	56,171	91	-60,884	10	4,713	85
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	51,883	42	13,596	53	-14,778	46	1,182	53
Bitcoin	15,385	76	-489	68	-176	0	665	28

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (91 percent) and the EuroFX (82 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (70 percent), Bitcoin (68 percent) and the Brazilian Real (53 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (11 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (42.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (47.1 percent)
EuroFX (81.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (81.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (70.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (67.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (33.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (33.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (42.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (36.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (11.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (1.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (45.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (49.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (43.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (41.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (91.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (94.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (53.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (52.3 percent)
Bitcoin (68.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (57.4 percent)

Mexican Peso & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (66 percent) and the British Pound (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Japanese Yen (11 percent), the EuroFX (6 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-21 percent), Australian Dollar (-16 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-3.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (2.3 percent)
EuroFX (6.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (0.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (16.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (18.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (11.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (0.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (-2.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-4.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-15.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-19.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (-16.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-12.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-25.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-31.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (66.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (72.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (-21.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-24.0 percent)
Bitcoin (-9.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-9.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 10,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,264 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	72.3	9.7	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.1	44.0	10.0
– Net Position:	10,513	-11,955	1,442
– Gross Longs:	25,192	3,371	4,940
– Gross Shorts:	14,679	15,326	3,498
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.5	56.8	32.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	5.8	-17.9

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 164,361 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,023 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 163,338 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	54.5	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	82.3	5.4
– Net Position:	164,361	-213,285	48,924
– Gross Longs:	242,369	417,586	90,436
– Gross Shorts:	78,008	630,871	41,512
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.7	18.4	57.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.1	-3.6	-8.4

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,700 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,398 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.0	56.9	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	60.4	10.7
– Net Position:	1,302	-7,995	6,693
– Gross Longs:	53,834	127,731	30,745
– Gross Shorts:	52,532	135,726	24,052
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.1	28.7	71.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.1	-28.5	45.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -56,869 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 338 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,207 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	74.8	15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.9	40.1	18.0
– Net Position:	-56,869	61,645	-4,776
– Gross Longs:	15,661	132,747	27,108
– Gross Shorts:	72,530	71,102	31,884
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.9	65.7	43.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.4	-13.6	19.3

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,720 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.1	44.4	37.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.6	36.1	33.9
– Net Position:	-4,720	3,386	1,334
– Gross Longs:	5,347	18,138	15,185
– Gross Shorts:	10,067	14,752	13,851
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.1	50.6	62.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	-18.9	41.4

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -46,233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,346 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,579 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.0	64.9	21.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.1	36.5	19.2
– Net Position:	-46,233	42,194	4,039
– Gross Longs:	17,806	96,421	32,592
– Gross Shorts:	64,039	54,227	28,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.4	84.9	31.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.9	1.9	31.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -42,356 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,419 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,937 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	55.5	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.5	23.8	18.0
– Net Position:	-42,356	50,557	-8,201
– Gross Longs:	44,610	88,628	20,500
– Gross Shorts:	86,966	38,071	28,701
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.6	56.6	32.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.3	10.9	7.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,481 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.6	55.3	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.3	44.2	10.7
– Net Position:	-3,904	3,717	187
– Gross Longs:	10,876	18,474	3,757
– Gross Shorts:	14,780	14,757	3,570
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.0	55.3	53.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.8	17.7	23.3

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 56,171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,477 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.0	45.0	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.0	67.7	1.0
– Net Position:	56,171	-60,884	4,713
– Gross Longs:	139,289	120,371	7,352
– Gross Shorts:	83,118	181,255	2,639
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.1	9.8	85.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	66.2	-61.5	-8.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 13,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,945 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.2	18.1	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.0	46.5	6.4
– Net Position:	13,596	-14,778	1,182
– Gross Longs:	37,991	9,365	4,527
– Gross Shorts:	24,395	24,143	3,345
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.1	46.5	53.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.0	22.7	-15.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -489 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	75.6	3.4	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	78.8	4.5	4.6
– Net Position:	-489	-176	665
– Gross Longs:	11,629	517	1,368
– Gross Shorts:	12,118	693	703
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.4	51.2	28.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.2	-1.1	12.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

20 Apr

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 20.04.2023 (EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD)

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is pushing off the support level. The instrument is going inside the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests a flat. A test of the lower border of the Cloud at 1.0945 is expected, followed by growth to 1.1165. A signal confirming the growth will be a rebound from the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.0880, which will mean further falling to 1.0785.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD has secured above the upper border of the descending channel. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud at 1.3410 is expected, followed by growth to 1.3655. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a rebound from the upper border of the descending channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.3345, which will mean further falling to 1.3255.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is correcting in a bullish channel. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the lower border of the Cloud at 0.6705 is expected, followed by growth to 0.6835. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a rebound from the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 0.6670, which will mean further falling to 0.6575.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

20 Apr

Dollar holds onto recent gains in quiet trade

By ForexTime

After touching the year-to-date bottom from early February at 100.82 last week, the DXY has rebounded this week. If it holds onto its gains and prints a positive, green candle, that will at least stop a run of five consecutive weeks of losses. This has come about chiefly as US Treasury bond yields have also bounced back after a few weeks of turmoil brought on by the March banking madness / crisis.

The dollar recovery which began late last week follows a jump in US inflation expectations data. CPI figures around the globe, including yesterday’s hot UK numbers, have added to the theme that core inflation will stick around at higher levels for potentially longer than many market watchers believe. For the US, the all-important bond markets are seeing bets on interest rate cuts being priced out. The Fed funds rate is now seen at 4.6% by year-end, which is the highest since the banking turmoil began. This implies money markets are pricing in only two full cuts from the Fed’s peak by then. We note that there is only roughly a 20% chance of another 25bp rate hike beyond the FOMC’s May meeting.

All of this still indicates that the upside for the greenback remains limited as the Fed tightening cycle nears the end. The DXY is still just about in its bearish, descending channel from the March top at 105.88. Prices look like they need to advance above 102.80 at a minimum to arrest the downtrend.

Other major central banks on the move

In contrast to the Fed, European central banks like the BoE, SNB and of course the ECB are seen as having more work to do to tame inflationary pressures. Strong UK data this week has rubber-stamped a 25bp rate hike at the Old Lady’s May meeting, the week after the FOMC and ECB rendezvous’. It has also seen another couple of rate rises priced in for MPC meetings into the summer. A peak UK rate of near 5% is the market bet though price action in the pound has been mixed this week. Support has been found on dips in GBP/USD with the mid-1.23s looking like solid support. But it is interesting we haven’t pushed higher towards 1.25, even with the solid data. A weekly close above the January top at 1.2447 would do nicely for the bulls.

EUR still in its uptrend

Those elevated core prices are also sustaining market bets that the ECB will lift rates in the coming months. Again if we check out bond market which have been driving the wider market price action this year, the peak rate in the eurozone is seen around 3.87%, so a strong rebound from the 3% low priced during the heat of the banking maelstrom. In fact, it’s not that far away from the early March top just above 4%.

We get more ECB speakers on the wires today though it appears that the bar for a hawkish surprise is now high ahead of that huge week of central bank meetings in early May. Similar to GBP, the rise in rate hike bets hasn’t pushed EUR/USD to its recent highs, above 1.10. But dips have been supported and prices remain in an ascending channel with a series of higher highs and higher lows since early March. A weekly close above 1.1032 is important to sustain the bull trend.

Article by ForexTime

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