Forex and Currency News

Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 66

Currency Speculators trim US Dollar Index bets to lowest level in 93-weeks

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 18th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (10,346 contracts) with the British Pound (3,700 contracts), the Swiss Franc (2,014 contracts), the EuroFX (1,023 contracts), Brazilian Real (651 contracts), Bitcoin (633 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (577 contracts) and the Japanese Yen (338 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Mexican Peso (-4,306 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (-4,419 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-2,751 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Speculators reduce US Dollar Index bets to lowest level in 93-weeks

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the increased bearishness of the speculator’s positioning in the US Dollar Index.

Large speculative US Dollar Index positions fell this week for a second consecutive week and for the third time in the past four weeks. Speculators have now subtracted a total of -3,631 net contracts from the overall position over the last four weeks. This bearishness has pushed the US Dollar Index speculator net position (currently at +10,513 contracts) to the lowest level of the past 93 weeks, dating back to July 6th of 2021.

Overall, the US Dollar speculator position has been in bullish territory dating back to June 29th of 2021 with the most bullish point of the cycle taking place on June 21st of 2022 with a high of +45,010 contracts. Since then, speculator positions have slowly eroded and have now been under the +20,000 net contract level for the past 18 weeks in a row.

The US Dollar Index futures price has been on the defensive as well with this week being the first weekly advance over the past eight weeks. The front-month futures price closed this week around 101.50 and is down around 4 percent since February while also being down over 10 percent since October.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-18-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	34,865	34	10,513	42	-11,955	57	1,442	32
EUR	766,374	80	164,361	82	-213,285	18	48,924	57
GBP	224,536	52	1,302	70	-7,995	29	6,693	71
JPY	177,507	33	-56,869	34	61,645	66	-4,776	44
CHF	40,870	38	-4,720	42	3,386	51	1,334	62
CAD	148,638	29	-46,233	11	42,194	85	4,039	32
AUD	159,708	57	-42,356	46	50,557	57	-8,201	32
NZD	33,377	16	-3,904	43	3,717	55	187	54
MXN	267,698	61	56,171	91	-60,884	10	4,713	85
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	51,883	42	13,596	53	-14,778	46	1,182	53
Bitcoin	15,385	76	-489	68	-176	0	665	28

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (91 percent) and the EuroFX (82 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (70 percent), Bitcoin (68 percent) and the Brazilian Real (53 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (11 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (42.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (47.1 percent)
EuroFX (81.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (81.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (70.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (67.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (33.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (33.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (42.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (36.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (11.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (1.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (45.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (49.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (43.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (41.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (91.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (94.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (53.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (52.3 percent)
Bitcoin (68.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (57.4 percent)

Mexican Peso & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (66 percent) and the British Pound (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Japanese Yen (11 percent), the EuroFX (6 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-21 percent), Australian Dollar (-16 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-3.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (2.3 percent)
EuroFX (6.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (0.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (16.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (18.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (11.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (0.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (-2.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-4.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-15.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-19.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (-16.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-12.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-25.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-31.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (66.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (72.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (-21.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-24.0 percent)
Bitcoin (-9.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-9.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 10,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,264 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	72.3	9.7	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.1	44.0	10.0
– Net Position:	10,513	-11,955	1,442
– Gross Longs:	25,192	3,371	4,940
– Gross Shorts:	14,679	15,326	3,498
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.5	56.8	32.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	5.8	-17.9

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 164,361 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,023 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 163,338 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	54.5	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	82.3	5.4
– Net Position:	164,361	-213,285	48,924
– Gross Longs:	242,369	417,586	90,436
– Gross Shorts:	78,008	630,871	41,512
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.7	18.4	57.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.1	-3.6	-8.4

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,700 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,398 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.0	56.9	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	60.4	10.7
– Net Position:	1,302	-7,995	6,693
– Gross Longs:	53,834	127,731	30,745
– Gross Shorts:	52,532	135,726	24,052
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.1	28.7	71.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.1	-28.5	45.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -56,869 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 338 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,207 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	74.8	15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.9	40.1	18.0
– Net Position:	-56,869	61,645	-4,776
– Gross Longs:	15,661	132,747	27,108
– Gross Shorts:	72,530	71,102	31,884
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.9	65.7	43.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.4	-13.6	19.3

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,720 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.1	44.4	37.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.6	36.1	33.9
– Net Position:	-4,720	3,386	1,334
– Gross Longs:	5,347	18,138	15,185
– Gross Shorts:	10,067	14,752	13,851
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.1	50.6	62.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	-18.9	41.4

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -46,233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,346 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,579 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.0	64.9	21.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.1	36.5	19.2
– Net Position:	-46,233	42,194	4,039
– Gross Longs:	17,806	96,421	32,592
– Gross Shorts:	64,039	54,227	28,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.4	84.9	31.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.9	1.9	31.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -42,356 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,419 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,937 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	55.5	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.5	23.8	18.0
– Net Position:	-42,356	50,557	-8,201
– Gross Longs:	44,610	88,628	20,500
– Gross Shorts:	86,966	38,071	28,701
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.6	56.6	32.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.3	10.9	7.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,481 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.6	55.3	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.3	44.2	10.7
– Net Position:	-3,904	3,717	187
– Gross Longs:	10,876	18,474	3,757
– Gross Shorts:	14,780	14,757	3,570
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.0	55.3	53.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.8	17.7	23.3

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 56,171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,477 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.0	45.0	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.0	67.7	1.0
– Net Position:	56,171	-60,884	4,713
– Gross Longs:	139,289	120,371	7,352
– Gross Shorts:	83,118	181,255	2,639
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.1	9.8	85.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	66.2	-61.5	-8.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 13,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,945 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.2	18.1	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.0	46.5	6.4
– Net Position:	13,596	-14,778	1,182
– Gross Longs:	37,991	9,365	4,527
– Gross Shorts:	24,395	24,143	3,345
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.1	46.5	53.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.0	22.7	-15.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -489 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	75.6	3.4	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	78.8	4.5	4.6
– Net Position:	-489	-176	665
– Gross Longs:	11,629	517	1,368
– Gross Shorts:	12,118	693	703
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.4	51.2	28.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.2	-1.1	12.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

20 Apr

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 20.04.2023 (EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD)

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is pushing off the support level. The instrument is going inside the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests a flat. A test of the lower border of the Cloud at 1.0945 is expected, followed by growth to 1.1165. A signal confirming the growth will be a rebound from the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.0880, which will mean further falling to 1.0785.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD has secured above the upper border of the descending channel. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud at 1.3410 is expected, followed by growth to 1.3655. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a rebound from the upper border of the descending channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.3345, which will mean further falling to 1.3255.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is correcting in a bullish channel. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the lower border of the Cloud at 0.6705 is expected, followed by growth to 0.6835. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a rebound from the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 0.6670, which will mean further falling to 0.6575.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

20 Apr

Dollar holds onto recent gains in quiet trade

By ForexTime

After touching the year-to-date bottom from early February at 100.82 last week, the DXY has rebounded this week. If it holds onto its gains and prints a positive, green candle, that will at least stop a run of five consecutive weeks of losses. This has come about chiefly as US Treasury bond yields have also bounced back after a few weeks of turmoil brought on by the March banking madness / crisis.

The dollar recovery which began late last week follows a jump in US inflation expectations data. CPI figures around the globe, including yesterday’s hot UK numbers, have added to the theme that core inflation will stick around at higher levels for potentially longer than many market watchers believe. For the US, the all-important bond markets are seeing bets on interest rate cuts being priced out. The Fed funds rate is now seen at 4.6% by year-end, which is the highest since the banking turmoil began. This implies money markets are pricing in only two full cuts from the Fed’s peak by then. We note that there is only roughly a 20% chance of another 25bp rate hike beyond the FOMC’s May meeting.

All of this still indicates that the upside for the greenback remains limited as the Fed tightening cycle nears the end. The DXY is still just about in its bearish, descending channel from the March top at 105.88. Prices look like they need to advance above 102.80 at a minimum to arrest the downtrend.

Other major central banks on the move

In contrast to the Fed, European central banks like the BoE, SNB and of course the ECB are seen as having more work to do to tame inflationary pressures. Strong UK data this week has rubber-stamped a 25bp rate hike at the Old Lady’s May meeting, the week after the FOMC and ECB rendezvous’. It has also seen another couple of rate rises priced in for MPC meetings into the summer. A peak UK rate of near 5% is the market bet though price action in the pound has been mixed this week. Support has been found on dips in GBP/USD with the mid-1.23s looking like solid support. But it is interesting we haven’t pushed higher towards 1.25, even with the solid data. A weekly close above the January top at 1.2447 would do nicely for the bulls.

EUR still in its uptrend

Those elevated core prices are also sustaining market bets that the ECB will lift rates in the coming months. Again if we check out bond market which have been driving the wider market price action this year, the peak rate in the eurozone is seen around 3.87%, so a strong rebound from the 3% low priced during the heat of the banking maelstrom. In fact, it’s not that far away from the early March top just above 4%.

We get more ECB speakers on the wires today though it appears that the bar for a hawkish surprise is now high ahead of that huge week of central bank meetings in early May. Similar to GBP, the rise in rate hike bets hasn’t pushed EUR/USD to its recent highs, above 1.10. But dips have been supported and prices remain in an ascending channel with a series of higher highs and higher lows since early March. A weekly close above 1.1032 is important to sustain the bull trend.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

19 Apr

RoboForex Introduces a Performance Fee Scheme for Copying Trades on Its R StocksTrader Platform

RoboForex, a leading global provider of financial services, is now enabling experienced Traders who use the CopyFX service for copy trading on its multi-asset trading platform R StocksTrader to set Performance fees on trades copied by Investors. The Performance fees paid by the Investor to the Trader are subject to profitable trades.

RoboForex launched the CopyFX copy trading service for users of the mobile version of its multi-asset trading platform R StocksTrader at the end of 2022. At launch time, Traders could test the service, acquire their investment rating, and take their place on the list of top-rated traders. By now, CopyFX Traders, as the strategy providers, can charge performance fees from its Investors for the successful copy trading.

This novelty will allow Traders not only to make a profit on their own trades, but also receive added income in the form of Performance fee for their positions copied by Investors who are following them. It should be noted that the Investor pays the fee only if the trade turns out profitable. Read more about the Performance fee scheme in this article.

More about CopyFX services on the R StocksTrader platform

CopyFX is meant for Investors to benefit from the expertise of more experienced Traders by subscribing to the said Traders’ strategies, and thereby make a profit by copying their successful trades. Traders can, in their turn, benefit by receiving Performance fees from Investors who have used their successful strategies.

R StocksTrader clients can make use of a variety of functions:

Copy over 1500+ instruments, which is unique offer in the industry
An opportunity to copy positions of trades with the most popular instruments, including stocks, CFDs, FX, commodities, and ETFs
Copying is instant, and orders for the Trader and Investor are executed at the very same price
The same R StocksTrader account may be used for independent trading as well as for copying the positions of other Traders
There are no limits to the number of accounts a Trader and Investor can have

About RoboForex

RoboForex is a company that delivers trading services. The company provides traders who work in financial markets with access to its proprietary trading platforms. RoboForex Ltd operates under the licence FSC 000138/437. View more detailed information about the Company’s products and activities on the official website roboforex.com.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

15 Apr

Large Currency Speculators push Euro bullish bets higher to 7-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 11th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (19,945 contracts) with the British Pound (12,395 contracts), Mexican Peso (2,564 contracts), Canadian Dollar (1,930 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (1,269 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-10,704 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-1,058 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-171 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-450 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-842 contracts) and Bitcoin (-507 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Euro bullish bets go higher to 7-week high

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the continued strength of the speculator’s positioning for the Euro. Large speculative Euro currency positions jumped this week by over +19,000 net contracts, marking the highest one-week gain since September. This is the third time Euro positions have risen in the past four weeks and places the current net position at the best level in the past seven weeks.

The Euro, overall, has now been in a continuous bullish standing for the past 30 weeks, dating back to September 20th when the net position flipped from bearish to bullish. It was also in September when the Euro exchange rate hit a multi-decade low against the US Dollar. The Euro fell below the parity level for the first time since 2002 and bottomed out near the 0.9600 exchange level in late-September. Since that bottom, the Euro has bounced back above parity and has risen by over 14 percent to close this week above the 1.1030 exchange rate.

Helping the Euro gain ground against the US Dollar has been the interest rate differential. Last year, the rate differential was in favor of the US Dollar as the Federal Reserve hiked consistently and sharply while the European Central Bank (ECB) lagged behind. This year, investor’s are forecasting an end to the Fed’s hiking campaign while the ECB seeks to continue raising their interest rate to further combat inflation and triggering further Euro bullish calls.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-11-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	33,076	30	13,264	47	-15,012	52	1,748	36
EUR	759,439	78	163,338	81	-212,065	19	48,727	57
GBP	225,292	52	-2,398	67	-5,341	30	7,739	73
JPY	176,822	32	-57,207	34	56,349	63	858	55
CHF	38,272	29	-6,734	37	9,736	61	-3,002	47
CAD	164,875	40	-56,579	2	58,205	96	-1,626	19
AUD	159,441	57	-37,937	50	47,070	54	-9,133	30
NZD	35,806	23	-4,481	41	2,571	53	1,910	74
MXN	260,053	59	60,477	94	-65,515	6	5,038	87
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	43,986	31	12,945	52	-14,593	47	1,648	57
Bitcoin	15,977	81	-1,122	57	373	0	749	30

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (94 percent) and the EuroFX (81 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (67 percent), Bitcoin (57 percent) and the Brazilian Real (52 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (2 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (34 percent) and the Swiss Franc (37 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (47.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (48.5 percent)
EuroFX (81.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (73.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (67.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (56.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (33.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (33.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (36.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (33.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (1.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (0.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (49.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (59.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (41.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (42.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (94.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (92.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (52.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (53.6 percent)
Bitcoin (57.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (66.2 percent)

Mexican Peso & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (72 percent) and the British Pound (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (2 percent) and the Japanese Yen (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-31 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-24 percent), Canadian Dollar (-19 percent) and the Australian Dollar (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (2.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (3.2 percent)
EuroFX (0.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-8.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (18.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (5.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (0.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-14.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (-4.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-3.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-19.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-19.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (-12.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-2.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-31.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-34.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (72.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (71.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (-24.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-21.0 percent)
Bitcoin (-9.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (3.4 percent)