Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 51

USDJPY: Bulls eye potential 250-pip move

By ForexTime 

  • USDJPY bounces off neckline of double bottom
  • Upside presents a potential 250-pip move
  • US inflation data on Thursday in focus
  • Support at 200-EMA & resistance at 50-EMA

USDJPY bounced off the neckline of a daily double-bottom pattern after data showed inflation in Tokyo cooled for a second month in December.

Consumer prices slowed to 2.4% in December from 2.6% in the previous month. The core which excludes fresh food and energy prices cooled to 3.5% – its fourth consecutive month of decline. This data is likely to encourage the BoJ to retain its negative rates this month.

According to Thomas Bulkowski, in his book “Encyclopaedia of Chart Patterns”, this kind of double bottom pattern, (Adam and Adam) has

·       A 16% breakeven failure rate.

·       A 73% chance of meeting its target.

Worthy of note is the neckline crosses across a confluence of significant support levels which include.

· 143.674: The 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

· 143.170: The 61.8 golden Fibonacci ratio (with Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from December 19th’s high to December 28th’s low).

At the time of writing USDJPY is bouncing off the 200-day EMA

The next key fundamental driver that may influence the currency pair will be the US Consumer Price Inflation data (CPI) due on Thursday. Headline inflation is expected to have ticked higher in December, while the annual core inflation is seen cooling to 3.8%. More signs of cooling inflationary pressures may stimulate Fed cut bets, weakening the USD as a result. USDJPY may remain range-bound as it waits for an injection of fresh volatility.

Redirecting our attention back to the technical…

If the neckline is not broken, USDJPY may rally for about 280 pips and contend with the following key resistance levels ahead.

· 144.853: A significant level close to the 100 Fibonacci retracement

· 145.477; its 50-day EMA.

However, if the Yen’s strength continues after the latest inflation data from Japan, we may see the confluence of key support levels give way.

The following levels may provide a temporary pause as it aims for new lows below the December 28th low of 140.29.

· 142.618: the 50.0 Fibonacci level

· 142.066 the 38.2 Fibonacci level

· 141.383: the 23.6 Fibonacci level


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

RoboMarkets Pro Clinches Prestigious Award for Best Professional Trading Conditions in Europe

RoboMarkets Pro, a brand of RoboMarkets Deutschland GmbH, has been honoured with the prestigious “Best Professional Trading Conditions (Europe)” award at the Professional Trader Awards 2023.

This accolade underscores the company’s unwavering commitment to delivering exceptional service and innovative solutions to its clients in the trading industry.

RoboMarkets Pro offers several key benefits for professional clients, including:

  • Diverse Trading Instruments: access to over 12,000 instruments, including stocks, indices, ETFs, and currencies.
  • Advanced Trading Platforms: utilisation of cutting-edge platforms such as R StocksTrader and MetaTrader 4/5.
  • Effective Market Analysis Tools: access to comprehensive market analysis and strategy automation tools.
  • High Execution Speeds and Tight Spreads: achieving execution as fast as 0.1 seconds and spreads starting from 0 points.
  • Higher Leverage Options: offering leverage up to 1:300.

The Professional Trader Awards, now in their fifth year and organised by Holiston Media, have become the gold standard for recognising excellence in the trading industry. These awards highlight the efforts of brokers who provide an ‘exclusive’ level of service, particularly for professional traders.

The rigorous selection process involves an initial nomination by the brokers themselves, followed by a voting phase where over 11,500 votes are cast by traders through their professional accounts. With more than 200 nominee companies across 17 categories, this year’s awards were the most competitive to date.

RoboMarkets Pro stands tall among its peers, having demonstrated exceptional capabilities in tailoring trading conditions for professional traders in Europe. This award is a testament to the company’s dedication to excellence and its pivotal role in shaping the future of trading.

About RoboMarkets Pro

RoboMarkets Pro is the brand name of RoboMarkets Deutschland GmbH. RoboMarkets Deutschland GmbH is a German broker that’s supervised by the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority under number 154068 and offers financial services to residents of EU/EEA countries.

Find more detailed information about the Company’s products and activities on its website www.robomarkets.de.

 

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 29.12.2023 (EURUSD, XAUUSD, NZDUSD)

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is testing the signal lines of the indicator. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line at 1.1040 is expected, followed by a rise to 1.1235. An additional signal confirming the rise will be a rebound from the lower boundary of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the lower boundary of the Cloud with the price finding a foothold under 1.0845, which will mean a further decline to 1.0755.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is rising after a bearish correction. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line at 2060 is expected, followed by a rise to 2130. An additional signal confirming the rise will be a rebound from the lower boundary of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the lower boundary of the Cloud with the price finding a foothold under 2015, which will mean a further decline to 1975.

XAUUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD is moving within a bullish channel. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line at 0.6315 is expected, followed by a rise to 0.6460. An additional signal confirming the rise will be a rebound from the lower boundary of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the lower boundary of the Cloud with the price finding a foothold under 0.6165, which will mean a further decline to 0.6155.

NZDUSD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

USDInd breaks down ahead of US inflation data

By ForexTime

  • USDInd now trading at lowest since end-July
  • Holiday season tends to see lighter trading activity
  • Still, today’s US inflation data release could trigger a pre-Christmas move for the greenback
  • Softer-than-expected PCE deflators may send USDInd sharply lower

The dollar has made fresh cycle lows as markets head into the holiday period and a time of thin liquidity and volumes.

That means price action can be whippy with little rhyme or reason for the moves. Many big trading desks have wound up their positions, so staffing levels and activity are much lighter than normal.

The most important data release today will be the US November Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE).

Consensus expects the Fed’s favoured inflation measure to have remained steady at +0.2% month-on-month (November 2023 vs. October 2023).

The year-on-year (November 2023 vs. November 2022) figure is expected to ease lower to 2.8%, and 3.3% for the Core PCE Deflator; both lower by 0.2 percentage points than October’s year-on-year prints.

A softer than expected PCE Deflator report could see the dollar wave decisively goodbye to support around 102 and move sharply lower.

After all, there is currently a 14% chance of a rate cut at the first FOMC meeting of the year in late January, which rises to above 94.5% at its mid-March decision.

However, a surprise surge in inflationary pressures may force markets to push back bets for Fed rate cuts in 2024, while could offer some short-term relief for the US dollar.

 


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Bank of Japan disappoints Yen bulls

By ForexTime 

  • Today, Bank of Japan offered zero guidance on rate hike in 2024
  • USDJPY climbs well past 200-day SMA
  • Higher-than-expected Japan CPI this Friday may see USJPY test 200-day SMA for support
  • Lower-than-expected Japan CPI may see USDJPY test 21-day SMA for resistance
  • Bloomberg model: 74% chance USDJPY will trade between 142.23-146.36 this week

Today, the BoJ maintained its benchmark rate at minus 0.1%, and made no changes to its yield curve control programme.

More disappointingly for JPY bulls (those hoping prices would move higher) …

the Japanese central bank failed to offer any hints of a rate hike in 2024.

This keeps Japan as the last economy that’s still holding on to negative interest rates (-0.1%).

 

How did the Yen react?

The absence of any “hawkish” clues prompted the Japanese Yen to weaken.

USDJPY surged above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA – a widely followed technical indicator).

The BoJ’s signal today, or lack thereof, also further fuelled the technical rebound in USDJPY, with the latter’s 14-day relative strength index (RSI) having broken below the 30 mark and into “oversold” territory.

NOTE: From the textbook perspective of technical analysis, an asset’s prices tends to rebound once its 14-day RSI breaks below 30.

 

In fact, at the time of writing, JPY is currently weaker against all of its G10 peers.

NOTE: Markets tend to boost the currency if they believe that economy’s interest rates are going to move higher, and vice versa.

 

How low could JPY go?

Perhaps not much, as long as markets can continue to hope for a BoJ rate hike in 2024.

And the earlier the better for Yen bulls.

To be clear, markets are still expecting the BoJ to exit its negative interest rates regime and finally jump on the rate-hike bandwagon in April.

Markets are still predicting an 86% chance of such an event, though those 86% odds are slightly lower compared to the 94% chance given prior to today’s BoJ policy decision.

As long as markets continue to hope for a BoJ rates liftoff, that should keep the Yen supported and limit its downside in the interim.

After all, Japan’s headline inflation (as measured by the consumer price index – CPI) has remained consistently above the BoJ’s target of 2% since April 2022.

Evidently, the BoJ wants to get further confirmation that inflation will remain sticky above 2%, before exiting its negative interest rates regime.

So with that in mind …

 

Look out for the next Japan inflation numbers due Friday (Dec 22nd)!

Economists are forecasting that Japan’s national CPI (consumer price index – which measures inflation) rose by 2.8% year-on-year (November 2023 vs. November 2022).

If so, that would be slightly lower than October’s 3.3% year-on-year CPI figure; but 2.8% is still well above the BoJ’s 2% inflation target.

 

How might JPY move before Christmas?

Bloomberg’s FX forecast model predicts a 74% chance that USDJPY will move between 142.23-146.36 this week.

  • If Japan’s national CPI this Friday comes in above the market-expected 2.8%, paving the way for a BoJ rate hike, that could see USDJPY re-testing its 200-day SMA for support.

    A daily close below the 200-day SMA may restore USDJPY to revisit the recent cycle low at 140.943 going into the new year.​​​​​​​

 

  • However, a lacklustre CPI figure this Friday that pushes back forecasts for a BoJ rate hike even further may extend USDJPY’s recovery.

    JPY bulls may be enticed into testing this FX pair’s 21-day SMA for resistance before the long Christmas weekend.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Trade of the Week: GBPUSD in for an early-Christmas cracker?

By ForexTime

  • GBPUSD has climbed about 4.9% so far in 2023
  • UK, US economic data to offer clues on BOE vs. Fed’s 2024 rates plan
  • Forecasted trading range: 1.2528 – 1.2788

Sterling is the second-best performing G10 currency against the US dollar so far in 2023.

At the time of writing, GBPUSD has about 4.9% in year-to-date gains, albeit with a couple of weeks left to go in the year.

The fact that Sterling is stronger against the US dollar so far this year is somewhat remarkable, in light of the UK’s ongoing economic woes.

Still, amid thinning market activity in this year-end period, traders are set to determine whether the year-to-date gains for “cable” (nickname for GBPUSD) will be extended, or thinned out, before 2023 officially comes to a close.

 

Events Watchlist

GBPUSD traders are set to react to these UK and US economic data to be released later this week:

  1. Wednesday, Dec 20th: UK November consumer price index (CPI) – which measures inflation
  2. Thursday, Dec 21st: US 3Q GDP (final print)
  3. Friday, Dec 22nd: UK November retail sales and 3Q GDP (final print)
  4. Friday, Dec 22nd: US PCE Deflator – the Federal Reserve’s preferred way of measuring inflation

For the market’s forecasts for each of the above data points, please refer to the FXTM Economic Calendar.

 

 

Why is the economic data important to GBPUSD traders?

Note that traders tend to boost the currency of the country that has higher interest rates.

Hence, markets will be using the data to anticipate what the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve might do to their respective interest rates in 2024.

Recall that, just last week, the Bank of England (BOE) threatened to keep its bank rate higher for longer, which is already at a 15-year high of 5.25%, with the UK central bank apparently still not yet done with its fight against inflation.

In contrast, also last week, the Federal Reserve a.k.a the Fed had forecasted that it will be cutting US interest rates in 2024.

Hence, no surprise that the Pound is about 0.9% stronger against the US dollar since this time last week (Dec 11th).

 

 

Potential Scenarios:

GBPUSD could be pushed higher if:

  • the UK inflation data comes in above market forecasts, justifying the BOE’s bias for keeping its bank rate “higher for longer”.
  • post-CPI gains for GBPUSD would have to be sustained by better-than-expected UK retail sales and GDP figures.
  • US 3Q GDP remains resilient while the PCE Deflators continue to ease lower, allowing the Fed to cut rates in 2024

 

However, GBPUSD could be dragged lower by:

  • a surprise uptick in the US PCE Deflators that threatens the Fed’s plans to lower US interest rates next year
  • lower-than-expected UK inflation data, retail sales, and GDP figures that once again highlight the risk of the UK economy falling into a recession.

    The greater the damage to the UK economy, the less likely the BOE can afford to sustain its bank rate at this current 5.25% level.

NOTE: Higher interest rates are intended to cool down inflation by destroying demand in an economy. However, interest rates that are too high for too long risks sending an economy into a recession.​​​​​​​

Key levels

The Bloomberg FX model forecasts a 75% chance that GBPUSD will trade between 1.2528 and 1.2788 this week.

Those levels serve as the general boundaries for GBPUSD’s expected trading range in this week leading up to Christmas.

Within that range, here are some key levels to look out for:

 

POTENTIAL RESISTANCE

  • 1.27335: November 29th intraday high
  • 1.27607: 38.2 Fibonacci level from GBPUSD’s long-term (June 2021 till September 2022) descent
  • 1.27943: Dec 14th intraday high

 

POTENTIAL SUPPORT

  • 21-day simple moving average (SMA)
  • 200-day SMA

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

EUR/USD Finds Stability

By RoboForex Analytical Department

On Monday, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating stability, trading around the 1.0910 mark.

Last week was notable for the currency markets, as key financial updates were released. The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank maintained their interest rates at 5.50% and 4.50% per annum, respectively. In the U.S., retail sales in November saw a modest increase of 0.3% month-on-month, following a decline in the previous month. Industrial production also showed growth, albeit slightly below expectations at 0.2%, compared to the anticipated 0.3%. This was a slight rebound from October’s decrease of 0.9%.

A significant development was the decline in the U.S. production PMI for December, which fell to 48.2 points, indicating potential concerns over high inflation levels.

With most critical data released, the currency market is now poised for a period of relative stability as it heads towards the Christmas season.

EUR/USD technical analysis

The EUR/USD H4 chart shows that the pair has established a consolidation range around 1.0888. Following an upward breakout, the price hit a local high of 1.1008 before correcting back to 1.0888 (testing from above). A new upward movement towards 1.1050 could initiate today. Upon reaching this level, a downward trend to 1.0727 may begin. The MACD indicator supports this view, with its signal line positioned above zero and pointing upwards.

On the EUR/USD H1 chart, the pair has finished its correction, bouncing off 1.0888. A rising structure is forming towards 1.0970, which could extend to 1.1050. Once this level is reached, a downward movement towards the first target of 1.0725 might ensue. This technical scenario is backed by the Stochastic oscillator, which shows its signal line above 80 and indicates potential further rises to new highs.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Japanese Yen Speculators reduce bearish bets to lowest since August

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 12th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by the Japanese Yen & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (23,825 contracts) with the British Pound (9,916 contracts), the Australian Dollar (5,341 contracts), the Swiss Franc (3,378 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (2,962 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (669 contracts) Bitcoin (183 contracts) and the Canadian Dollar (2,603 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-5,033 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-3,580 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-2,343 contracts).

Japanese Yen Speculators reduce bearish bets to lowest since August

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week was a sharp boost in sentiment for the Japanese yen speculators. Large speculative yen positions rose strongly this week by over +23,000 net contracts and gained for a second straight week as well as for the third time in four weeks. Over these past four weeks, the yen speculator bets now have improved by a total of +49,118 contracts.

This turn in sentiment has taken the overall bearish net positioning for speculators down to a current level of -81,131 contracts, marking the least bearish level since August.

The yen exchange rate continued to improve as well this week versus the US Dollar. The USDJPY currency pair fell for a fifth consecutive week this week (a lower USDJPY exchange rate means USD weakness and JPY strength) and closed at the 142.13 level. The USDJPY is off it’s most recent high in November by about 7 percent.

Helping the yen’s fortunes lately has been a general speculation that the Bank of Japan will look to end its negative interest rate policy sometime in the coming new year. Also, on the US Dollar side, this is combined with the US Federal Reserve’s dovish interest rate hold last week that has lent credence to the outlook that US interest rates will be on hold or even possibly be reduced over 2024.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Dec-12-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index41,3453817,60154-18,0324743115
EUR792,14984147,32783-182,3572135,03035
GBP243,6776321,58171-20,10134-1,48055
JPY257,58180-81,1312779,527741,60457
CHF65,186100-14,4741719,31375-4,83944
CAD213,87371-55,2451361,19390-5,94810
AUD208,92764-52,3404154,86858-2,52846
NZD58,30877-13,4882013,1097537954
MXN269,0746274,12584-79,064144,93943
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL68,6465446,66495-48,95552,29156
Bitcoin21,21189-2,067351,188087933

 


Strength Scores led by Brazilian Real & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Brazilian Real (95 percent), the Mexican Peso (84 percent) and the EuroFX (83 percent) lead the currency markets this week.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (13 percent) and the Swiss Franc (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the New Zealand Dollar (20 percent) and the Japanese Yen (27 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (54.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (58.2 percent)
EuroFX (83.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (85.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (70.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (63.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (27.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (14.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (17.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (7.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (12.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (10.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (40.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (36.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (20.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (12.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (84.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (84.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (95.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (99.7 percent)
Bitcoin (35.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (32.5 percent)

 

Brazilian Real & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (48 percent) and the British Pound (29 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The EuroFX (26 percent), the Mexican Peso (26 percent) and the Australian Dollar (21 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-5 percent), Bitcoin (-5 percent), the US Dollar Index (-2 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (-2 percent) lead the downside trend scores this week.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-2.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (0.5 percent)
EuroFX (26.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (28.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (29.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (21.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (12.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-2.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (1.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-7.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-5.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-7.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (20.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (23.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-1.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-9.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (26.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (21.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (48.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (58.5 percent)
Bitcoin (-4.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-27.0 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 17,601 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,944 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:68.018.67.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.462.26.5
– Net Position:17,601-18,032431
– Gross Longs:28,1007,6773,116
– Gross Shorts:10,49925,7092,685
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.3 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.347.114.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.33.3-8.1

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 147,327 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 152,360 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.354.712.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.777.78.2
– Net Position:147,327-182,35735,030
– Gross Longs:231,837433,209100,250
– Gross Shorts:84,510615,56665,220
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.7 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):83.120.934.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:26.4-27.418.2

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 21,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,916 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,665 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.647.418.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.755.718.9
– Net Position:21,581-20,101-1,480
– Gross Longs:72,011115,62044,638
– Gross Shorts:50,430135,72146,118
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):70.834.455.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:29.1-30.424.1

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -81,131 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 23,825 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -104,956 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.067.115.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.536.214.4
– Net Position:-81,13179,5271,604
– Gross Longs:28,226172,75638,804
– Gross Shorts:109,35793,22937,200
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.274.056.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.6-13.610.8

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -14,474 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,852 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.165.219.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.335.627.0
– Net Position:-14,47419,313-4,839
– Gross Longs:3,97042,48912,788
– Gross Shorts:18,44423,17617,627
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.574.543.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.2-12.122.4

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -55,245 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,848 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.171.913.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.943.216.1
– Net Position:-55,24561,193-5,948
– Gross Longs:19,457153,67828,390
– Gross Shorts:74,70292,48534,338
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.789.79.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.03.21.7

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -52,340 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,341 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,681 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.867.110.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.940.811.9
– Net Position:-52,34054,868-2,528
– Gross Longs:30,967140,17222,411
– Gross Shorts:83,30785,30424,939
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.858.446.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:20.8-23.821.4

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -13,488 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,450 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.859.37.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.936.87.1
– Net Position:-13,48813,109379
– Gross Longs:13,27334,5884,515
– Gross Shorts:26,76121,4794,136
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.6 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.374.654.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.7-7.145.2

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 74,125 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 669 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,456 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.549.72.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.079.10.7
– Net Position:74,125-79,0644,939
– Gross Longs:114,396133,8476,875
– Gross Shorts:40,271212,9111,936
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.6 to 13.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.414.242.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:26.1-26.815.0

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 46,664 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,580 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,244 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:73.320.95.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.392.32.2
– Net Position:46,664-48,9552,291
– Gross Longs:50,30514,3753,767
– Gross Shorts:3,64163,3301,476
– Long to Short Ratio:13.8 to 10.2 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):95.04.555.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:48.4-47.85.7

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 183 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,250 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:74.17.97.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:83.82.33.7
– Net Position:-2,0671,188879
– Gross Longs:15,7141,6841,654
– Gross Shorts:17,781496775
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 13.4 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):35.394.932.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.87.30.8

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Euro Shows Temporary Stability

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The Euro’s recent stabilization against the US dollar, now hovering around 1.0766, may be short-lived. Market eyes are turning towards the upcoming two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve, starting Tuesday and concluding late Wednesday. Key attention will be on the interest rate decision, widely anticipated to hold steady at 5.50% annually.

Investor focus is keenly set on the Fed’s potential moves for February and March, with speculation rife about a possible rate reduction by the end of Q1. Any hints or signals in this regard will be crucial for market dynamics.

Monday’s calendar is light, with no major statistics due from either the Eurozone or the US. The real action is expected to start Tuesday.

EUR/USD technical analysis

On the EUR/USD H4 chart, a decline impulse to 1.0804 has been observed. Currently, the market has formed a consolidation range around it. A downward wave to 1.0704 could develop today. This practically implies a breakout from the range downwards, opening the potential for further trend development towards 1.0594. This is the first target. Once the quotes reach it, a correction to 1.0800 might start, followed by a decline to 1.0400. This is a local target. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD, where its signal line is below zero, pointing strictly downwards.

On the EUR/USD H1 chart, the quotes have rebounded from 1.0805. A structure of a declining wave to 1.0705 is forming. After reaching this level, a correction link to 1.0760 cannot be ruled out (a test from below). Next, a decline to 1.0655 could follow. This is a local target. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and a potential drop to 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Currency Speculators raised their British Pound bets into bullish level

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 5th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as ten out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (19,560 contracts) with the Brazilian Real (17,363 contracts), the Australian Dollar (13,538 contracts), the EuroFX (9,195 contracts), the Mexican Peso (7,971 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (5,394 contracts), the Japanese Yen (4,281 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (3,159 contracts), the Swiss Franc (2,437 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (857 contracts) also experiencing positive weeks.

The only currency (cryptocurrency) seeing a decline in speculator bets on the week was the Bitcoin with a dip by -505 contracts.

Currency Speculators raise their British Pound bets into bullish level

Highlighting the COT currency’s data is the continued gains in the speculator positioning for the British Pound Sterling. The Pound Sterling speculative positioning rose this week by almost +20,000 contracts, following up on last week’s gain by +18,203 contracts. The GBP speculator position has now risen in four out of the past five weeks and by a total of +32,036 contracts over that period.

This bullishness has brought the net speculator standing (currently at +11,665 contracts) back into an overall bullish level for the first time since September 26th.

The British Pound Sterling’s exchange rate with the US Dollar took a breather this week after gaining for three consecutive weeks and touching over the 1.2700 level. The Sterling’s exchange descended this week to the major psychological support level of 1.2500 but managed to bounce from that major support back up to 1.2551 to close out the week.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Dec-05-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index40,4513619,94458-19,56145-3835
EUR756,61565152,36085-188,9291836,56937
GBP218,8734811,66564-11,9833931859
JPY267,48287-104,95614106,21887-1,26251
CHF60,35696-17,852823,71383-5,86140
CAD197,79159-57,8481163,29091-5,44211
AUD195,56954-57,6813654,899582,78259
NZD54,73268-16,4501315,215791,23565
MXN257,0535873,45684-78,636155,18044
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL72,4875950,244100-52,08911,84552
Bitcoin23,035100-2,250331,387086333

 


Strength Scores led by Brazilian Real & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Brazilian Real (100 percent) and the EuroFX (85 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (84 percent), British Pound (64 percent) and the US Dollar Index (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc (8 percent),  the Canadian Dollar (11 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (13 percent) and the Japanese Yen (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (58.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (56.8 percent)
EuroFX (85.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (81.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (63.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (50.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (14.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (11.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (7.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (1.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (10.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (6.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (36.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (23.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (12.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (4.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (84.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (79.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (99.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (77.1 percent)
Bitcoin (32.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (40.1 percent)

 

Brazilian Real & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (58 percent) and the EuroFX (29 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (23 percent), the Mexican Peso (22 percent) and the British Pound (21 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Bitcoin (-27 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the New Zealand Dollar (-9 percent), Canadian Dollar (-8 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-0.1 percent)
EuroFX (28.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (25.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (21.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (2.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (-2.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-3.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-7.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-9.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-7.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-12.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (23.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (8.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-9.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-35.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (21.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (12.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (58.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (38.1 percent)
Bitcoin (-27.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-31.2 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 19,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 857 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,087 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:69.717.37.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.465.78.1
– Net Position:19,944-19,561-383
– Gross Longs:28,1997,0092,891
– Gross Shorts:8,25526,5703,274
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.244.74.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.51.5-14.8

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 152,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 143,165 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.153.511.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.078.46.5
– Net Position:152,360-188,92936,569
– Gross Longs:235,684404,55085,929
– Gross Shorts:83,324593,47949,360
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.7 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.218.537.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:28.6-30.322.1

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 11,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 19,560 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,895 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.349.913.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.055.312.9
– Net Position:11,665-11,983318
– Gross Longs:66,359109,11228,621
– Gross Shorts:54,694121,09528,303
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.939.058.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.0-22.017.7

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -104,956 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,281 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -109,237 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.668.815.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:49.829.116.1
– Net Position:-104,956106,218-1,262
– Gross Longs:28,266184,15641,899
– Gross Shorts:133,22277,93843,161
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.4 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.086.950.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.90.78.0

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -17,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,437 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,289 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.269.921.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.830.630.7
– Net Position:-17,85223,713-5,861
– Gross Longs:3,73242,16412,655
– Gross Shorts:21,58418,45118,516
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.3 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.982.540.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.8-6.222.3

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -57,848 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,394 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,242 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.071.414.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.239.417.4
– Net Position:-57,84863,290-5,442
– Gross Longs:19,753141,25929,036
– Gross Shorts:77,60177,96934,478
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.8 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.591.010.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.76.0-1.1

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -57,681 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 13,538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -71,219 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.863.613.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.335.512.2
– Net Position:-57,68154,8992,782
– Gross Longs:32,886124,38826,639
– Gross Shorts:90,56769,48923,857
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.8 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.058.459.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.3-33.145.2

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -16,450 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,159 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,609 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.666.49.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:51.638.66.7
– Net Position:-16,45015,2151,235
– Gross Longs:11,79636,3584,902
– Gross Shorts:28,24621,1433,667
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.679.464.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.4-1.952.7

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 73,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,971 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,485 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.451.82.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.882.40.7
– Net Position:73,456-78,6365,180
– Gross Longs:108,921133,0636,872
– Gross Shorts:35,465211,6991,692
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.6 to 14.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.014.544.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.7-22.818.2

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 50,244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 17,363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,881 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:74.021.24.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.793.12.2
– Net Position:50,244-52,0891,845
– Gross Longs:53,67415,3683,437
– Gross Shorts:3,43067,4571,592
– Long to Short Ratio:15.6 to 10.2 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):99.70.651.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:58.5-56.91.2

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,250 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -505 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:77.78.27.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:87.52.23.4
– Net Position:-2,2501,387863
– Gross Longs:17,9071,8951,641
– Gross Shorts:20,157508778
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 13.7 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.5100.032.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-27.046.4-0.7

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.