Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 2

Pound Declines Amid Geopolitics and Political Risks

By Analytical Department RoboForex

GBP/USD traded at 1.3515 on Tuesday as the US dollar strengthened. Pressure on the pound intensified at the start of the week following a sharp escalation of the US-Iran conflict, with markets fearing the breakdown of the truce and rotating into safe-haven assets.

The trigger was heightened tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. The US reported the detention of an Iranian vessel, while Tehran refused to participate in further negotiations. This development supported higher oil prices and boosted demand for the dollar.

An additional factor weighing on sterling is domestic UK politics. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has come under pressure following the scandal surrounding the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the US. The market is watching his parliamentary address and assessing the risks of political instability.

Despite the current decline, the pound remains close to two-month highs and is up approximately 2% for the month. It had previously been supported by expectations of de-escalation in the Middle East. If political pressure on the government intensifies further, the pound could give back some of its recent gains.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market is forming a wide consolidation range above 1.3494, currently extending up to 1.3545. A move lower towards 1.3333 is likely in the near term. Following this correction, a new consolidation range is likely to form. An upside breakout would open potential for a continuation wave to 1.3611, while a downside breakout would suggest further movement to 1.3120. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above the zero level and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around the 1.3515 level. A downside breakout could lead to a move towards 1.3444, followed by a possible rise to 1.3495. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below the 20 level and pointing firmly downwards.

Conclusion

 

The pound has come under pressure as renewed US-Iran tensions around the Strait of Hormuz drive safe-haven demand for the dollar. At the same time, domestic political uncertainty adds an extra layer of risk. The detention of an Iranian vessel and Tehran’s refusal to negotiate have revived energy supply concerns and pushed oil prices higher. Meanwhile, the scandal surrounding the UK ambassador appointment has put Prime Minister Starmer in a difficult position, with markets assessing the potential for political instability. Despite the current pullback, sterling remains near two-month highs, having gained 2% this month. However, technical indicators suggest further near-term downside, and the pound could give back more of its recent gains if geopolitical or political pressures intensify.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

EUR/USD Starts the Week Higher, but the Outlook Remains Unstable

By Analytical Department RoboForex

EUR/USD moved higher on Monday after a correction, trending towards 1.1759. Earlier, the US dollar had partially regained ground following last week’s decline, supported by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid an escalation of the US-Iran conflict.

Donald Trump reported that the US Navy opened fire and detained an Iranian ship in the Gulf of Oman after it failed to comply with orders when leaving the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran, in turn, abandoned plans to open the strait after Washington failed to lift the blockade of Iranian ports. Iran also signalled it would not participate in the second round of talks.

The protracted conflict is increasing risks to energy supplies, intensifying inflationary pressure, and reducing the likelihood of policy easing. Markets are revising their expectations, with the probability of a Fed rate cut diminishing this year.

The baseline scenario now assumes rates will remain unchanged in the coming months, likely through the end of 2026.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 1.1800 level, currently extending down to 1.1737. An upward wave to 1.1790 is likely. Subsequently, a downward wave to 1.1700 could develop. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above the zero level but pointing firmly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum with the potential for the downward trend to persist.

On the H1 chart, the market is forming the structure of the next upward wave to the 1.1790 level. After reaching this level, a correction to 1.1700 is likely, followed by a possible rise to 1.1745. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and pointing firmly upwards towards 80.

Conclusion

EUR/USD has opened the week on a positive note, but the outlook remains fragile following renewed escalation in the US-Iran conflict. Trump’s announcement of a naval incident in the Gulf of Oman and Tehran’s withdrawal from planned talks and efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have revived geopolitical risks. Energy supply concerns are intensifying inflationary pressures, pushing Fed rate cut expectations further out, with rates now expected to remain on hold through 2026. While technical indicators suggest a short-term bounce towards 1.1790, the broader bearish momentum appears intact, and any sustained euro strength would likely require a genuine de-escalation of the conflict.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

USD/JPY in Positive Territory: Yen Erases All Weekly Gains

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY rose to 159.40 on Friday, with the Japanese yen surrendering all the gains accumulated since the beginning of this week. Pressure intensified following comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who failed to provide clear guidance on rates ahead of the next meeting.

Ueda noted that the regulator must balance rising inflation against the risks of an economic slowdown. Ahead of previous rate decisions, he had provided more explicit signals, and the market had expected a similar tone.

At the same time, investors acknowledge that the BoJ may raise its inflation forecasts amid rising energy prices.

Earlier in the week, the yen had strengthened following statements from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama regarding coordination with the US Treasury on foreign exchange policy and a readiness to intervene in the market if necessary.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 159.00 level, currently extending up to 159.25. A move higher towards 159.90 (testing from below) is likely, followed by a possible decline back to the 159.00 level. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below the zero level and pointing firmly upwards.

On the H1 chart, the market is forming the structure of the next upward wave towards the 159.60 level. A wave extension to 159.90 is possible. Subsequently, a decline to at least 159.00 is likely. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line above the 80 level and pointing firmly upwards.

Conclusion

USD/JPY has returned to positive territory, with the yen erasing all its weekly gains after BOJ Governor Ueda’s ambiguous rate guidance. Markets had anticipated clearer signals ahead of the upcoming meeting, but instead received a balanced assessment of competing inflation and growth risks. While the BoJ may yet raise its inflation forecasts due to higher energy prices, the lack of explicit hawkish communication has weighed on the currency. Earlier intervention warnings from the Finance Minister provided only temporary support. Technically, further upside towards 159.90 appears likely before any potential pullback, with the pair’s direction hinging on whether Ueda delivers clearer signals at the April meeting.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

EUR/USD Rallies as Gains Extend to Nine Consecutive Sessions

By Analytical Department RoboForex

EUR/USD climbed to 1.1817 on Thursday, marking its ninth consecutive session of gains without interruption. The major currency pair continues to hit six-week highs. Pressure on the US dollar has intensified amid growing expectations of a diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran, which has reduced demand for safe-haven assets.

President Donald Trump stated that the seven-week conflict is nearing its end. The White House has also expressed confidence that an agreement can be reached. Fresh face-to-face negotiations may resume in Pakistan.

Tehran is considering allowing the free passage of ships through the Omani portion of the Strait of Hormuz if an agreement is reached, which could reduce the risks of further escalation.

Additional pressure on the dollar has come from lower energy prices, which have eased inflation fears and reduced expectations of further monetary tightening.

The broader market expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged this month and likely through the remainder of the year.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market is forming a consolidation range around 1.1771. An upward wave continuing to 1.1877 is expected as a local target, followed by a possible downward wave to 1.1700. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards, reflecting continued bullish momentum and supporting the potential for the uptrend to persist.

On the H1 chart, the market is forming the structure of the next upward wave to the 1.1835 level. After reaching this level, a correction to 1.1795 is likely, followed by a possible rise to 1.1855, with a trend perspective towards 1.1877. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 80 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

EUR/USD has experienced an impressive nine-session rally, driven by rising hopes for a US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough, which has diminished safe-haven demand for the dollar. With President Trump suggesting the seven-week conflict is near its end and Tehran considering concessions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz, energy prices have fallen, easing inflation fears and reducing expectations of monetary tightening. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady. While technical indicators suggest continued upside momentum towards 1.1877, the pair may be due for a near-term correction. The trajectory ahead hinges on whether diplomatic efforts deliver a tangible agreement or disappoint markets.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

GBP/USD Finds Support: Geopolitics Already Priced In, Focus on Bank of England

By Analytical Department RoboForex

GBP/USD rose to 1.3506 on Tuesday. Sterling has moved comfortably away from last week’s one-month high of 1.3480. Pressure on the currency had previously increased following the collapse of US-Iran talks over the weekend.

The breakdown in dialogue followed Tehran’s refusal to abandon its nuclear program and disagreements over the terms of the agreement, which the Iranian side described as excessive. Against this backdrop, Donald Trump threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil supply route. This pushed Brent crude prices to 102.00 USD per barrel.

Oil has become markedly more expensive, adding tension to the already strained global energy situation and raising the risks of an inflationary shock. As a result, market expectations have shifted towards a tighter Bank of England policy.

As a result, investors are now pricing in at least one interest rate hike by the end of 2026.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market is forming a wide consolidation range around the 1.3333 level, currently extending up to 1.3535. A decline to 1.3333 is expected in the near term. Following the completion of this correction, a new consolidation range is likely to form. An upside breakout would open potential for a continuation wave to 1.3411, while a downside breakout would suggest further movement to 1.3120. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is above the zero level and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, the market formed a compact consolidation range around the 1.3455 level and, with an upside breakout, completed a wave structure to 1.3535. The start of a decline towards the 1.3388 level is now expected. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line above the 80 level and pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

GBP/USD has found support as markets appear to have largely priced in the latest geopolitical escalation following failed US-Iran talks. Trump’s threat to block the Strait of Hormuz has sent oil prices above 102.00 USD per barrel, intensifying inflationary concerns and shifting expectations towards tighter Bank of England policy, with at least one rate hike now priced for 2026. While sterling has shown resilience, the broader outlook remains clouded by risks related to the energy market. Technical indicators suggest a near-term pullback is likely, but the pair’s direction will ultimately depend on whether geopolitical tensions continue to escalate or show signs of easing.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

USD/JPY Rises for Third Day: Will There Be Yen Intervention or Not

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY rose to 159.73 on Monday. The Japanese yen has fallen for a third consecutive day due to a fresh surge in oil prices following the failure of the United States and Iran to reach an agreement at talks in Islamabad.

US President Donald Trump has announced plans to block the Strait of Hormuz and is considering resuming attacks on Iran, dramatically increasing the risks of an escalating global energy crisis.

The protracted conflict is narrowing the Bank of Japan’s room for manoeuvre. A split remains within the regulator: some members are concerned about rising inflation, while others worry about the risks of an economic slowdown. The BoJ is scheduled to meet on 27-28 April.

Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa noted that monetary policy could be used to curb inflation through support for a stronger yen.

The exchange rate is now approaching the key level of 160 per dollar. Previously, this area served as a trigger for currency interventions by the Japanese authorities.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY formed a consolidation range around the 158.88 level and, with an upside breakout, completed a growth wave to 159.82. Today, the beginning of a correction to the 158.88 level is expected, followed by a rise to 160.60. Subsequently, a new downward impulse to 157.70 is anticipated, with the prospect of a continued correction to 156.00. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator-its signal line is below the zero level and pointing strictly upwards, reflecting the potential for the wave to continue.

On the H1 chart, the market completed a growth wave structure to 159.82. Today, the probability of the next downward wave developing to the 158.88 level (testing from above) will be considered. The scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator-its signal line is above the 80 level and pointing strictly downwards to 20, indicating that downside potential remains in the short term.

Conclusion

USD/JPY continues its three-day rally as failed US-Iran talks in Islamabad triggered a fresh spike in oil prices, with President Trump threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz and resume attacks. The yen remains under pressure, while the Bank of Japan faces internal divisions over how to respond to competing inflation and growth risks. With the pair approaching the psychologically significant 160 level-a previous intervention trigger-markets are on high alert for potential action from Japanese authorities. Technical indicators suggest a possible near-term correction before further upside, but the yen’s fate ultimately hinges on whether geopolitical tensions escalate or ease in the coming days.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Large Currency Speculators Drop Euro Bets into Bearish Territory

By InvestMacro 

Speculators OI FX Futures COT Chart

Open Interest (OI) is the amount of contracts that are currently live in the marketplace. OI Strength shows the current strength compared to the past 3-years.

 

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 7th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Bitcoin & US Dollar Index

Speculators Nets FX Futures COT Chart
The COT currency market speculator bets were overall decisively lower this week as just two out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the US Dollar Index (1,830 contracts) with Bitcoin (287 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-22,964 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-20,870 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-12,616 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-10,693 contracts), the EuroFX (-8,048 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-7,487 contracts), the British Pound (-3,689 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-823 contracts), and  with the Mexican Peso (-213 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Large Currency Speculators Drop Euro Bets fall into Bearish Territory

Highlighting the Currencies speculator positioning this week was the weakness in the Euro speculator positions. Euro bets fell this week by -8,048 contracts and this was the eighth consecutive week that the Euro speculator positions declined. This has been a swift turnaround for the Euro, coming from a strong bullish position into a new negative bearish level. The speculator bets were as high as +180,305 contracts on February 10th and have fallen all the way to this week’s new negative position of -7,541 contracts. This is an eight-week total decline by -187,846 net positions and marks the first bearish position in the Euro speculator positions since March 4, 2025, a span of 57 weeks.

The Euro sentiment has sold off sharply, but in the Foreign Exchange markets, the Euro price has not fared too badly and closed this week at 1.1766. Euro positions have now been in a range dating back to June 2025 between 1.1500 on the downside to a topside resistance level of 1.1935 approximately. We’ve not seen a clear break of these two levels since June.

The Canadian Dollar also saw speculator weakness again this week and fell by over -22,000 contracts. This is the fourth week of bearish contracts for the Canadian Dollar positioning and has now pushed the overall net position to -55,648 net contracts, which marks the most bearish position since December 23rd. Canadian Dollar contracts had seen an overall bullish level from February 3rd until March 17th of this year before retreating back into bearish territory. In the Foreign Exchange markets, the Canadian Dollar rebounded this week after falling for four consecutive weeks and closed out the week at the exchange rate (against the US Dollar) of 0.7252. The Canadian Dollar is currently under its 200-week moving average and is trading in an ascending triangle pattern with a topside resistance of around 0.7400 while support underneath can be found at 0.7200.

The US Dollar Index saw a gain in bullish positions this week for a second consecutive week and for the third time out of the past four weeks. The US Dollar Index has now been in an overall bullish level for the fourth consecutive week and has gone from a position of -5,882 contracts on March 10 to this week’s net position of 5,511 net contracts, which is a change of +11,393 contracts in just the past four weeks. The US Dollar Index pricing, however, has continued to be stuck in a range from 98.00 on the low side to 100.00 on the upside. The DXY has been in this range for the past six weeks, oscillating between the higher side and the lower side, and this week closed out at 98.44.

Bitcoin and the Mexican Peso lead Currency prices this week

In the Currency Markets, Bitcoin, although a cryptocurrency, rose by 6.20% for the week. The Mexican Peso was up by 3.27% over the past five days. Next up, the Brazilian Real advanced by 2.94% on the week, followed by the Australian Dollar and the New Zealand Dollar, which rose by 2.78% and 2.75%, respectively. The British Pound was up by 2.14%, while the Euro also saw a boost of 1.90%. The Swiss Franc advanced higher by 1.54% and was followed by the Canadian Dollar, which saw an increase of 0.77%. The Japanese Yen rounded out the gainers with a 0.30% uptick.

The only market that saw a decline on the week was the US Dollar Index, which fell by -1.54%.


Currencies Data:

Speculators FX Futures COT Data Table
Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & Australian Dollar

Speculators Strength Scores FX Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bitcoin (100 percent) and the Australian Dollar (94 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (69 percent), Canadian Dollar (60 percent) and the US Dollar Index (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the British Pound (16 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the New Zealand Dollar (24 percent), the Japanese Yen (25 percent) and the EuroFX (26 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (59.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (54.1 percent)
EuroFX (25.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (29.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (15.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (17.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (24.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (30.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (38.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (40.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (60.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (70.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (94.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (100.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (23.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (32.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (41.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (41.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (69.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (78.3 percent)
Bitcoin (100.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (94.3 percent)


Bitcoin & Swiss Franc top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trends FX Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (27 percent) and the Swiss Franc (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (20 percent), the Australian Dollar (10 percent) and the Brazilian Real (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The EuroFX (-63 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-36 percent), Japanese Yen (-29 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-18 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (19.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (9.1 percent)
EuroFX (-62.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-66.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (0.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-4.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (-29.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-23.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (21.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (22.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-35.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-25.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (9.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (18.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-7.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (7.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (-18.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-18.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (2.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (13.1 percent)
Bitcoin (27.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (12.2 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 5,511 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position increase of 1,830 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,681 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:63.121.79.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:48.039.96.4
– Net Position:5,511-6,6751,164
– Gross Longs:23,0847,9263,501
– Gross Shorts:17,57314,6012,337
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.5 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.038.459.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.7-25.234.2

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -7,541 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -8,048 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 507 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.960.011.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.964.25.7
– Net Position:-7,541-33,15040,691
– Gross Longs:200,946464,74685,038
– Gross Shorts:208,487497,89644,347
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.969.960.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-62.660.6-28.2

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -56,354 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -3,689 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,665 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.470.59.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.544.911.8
– Net Position:-56,35462,698-6,344
– Gross Longs:47,344172,23322,515
– Gross Shorts:103,698109,53528,859
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.784.736.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.32.5-18.8

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -93,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -20,870 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -72,872 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.255.012.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:53.029.111.1
– Net Position:-93,74290,3963,346
– Gross Longs:91,560192,10342,118
– Gross Shorts:185,302101,70738,772
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.973.745.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-29.026.50.4

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -30,694 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -823 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,871 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.274.313.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:47.629.622.5
– Net Position:-30,69438,686-7,992
– Gross Longs:10,58664,34611,477
– Gross Shorts:41,28025,66019,469
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.5 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.762.644.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.3-2.2-38.9

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -55,648 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -22,964 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,684 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.258.212.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:48.334.013.9
– Net Position:-55,64858,038-2,390
– Gross Longs:60,714139,98831,055
– Gross Shorts:116,36281,95033,445
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.7 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.541.338.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-35.835.6-14.2

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 70,813 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -10,693 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,506 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.130.915.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.467.75.9
– Net Position:70,813-97,34726,534
– Gross Longs:137,95981,87242,080
– Gross Shorts:67,146179,21915,546
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.5 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):94.35.296.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.6-8.84.0

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -36,075 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -7,487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,588 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.477.45.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:63.329.26.6
– Net Position:-36,07537,071-996
– Gross Longs:12,63659,5684,103
– Gross Shorts:48,71122,4975,099
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.775.839.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.410.6-37.8

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 57,471 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -213 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,684 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.845.83.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.479.61.2
– Net Position:57,471-61,7874,316
– Gross Longs:91,05583,7606,529
– Gross Shorts:33,584145,5472,213
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.6 to 13.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.856.346.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.017.30.4

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 40,095 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -12,616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,711 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:70.324.34.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.163.30.7
– Net Position:40,095-44,4974,402
– Gross Longs:80,15727,6995,206
– Gross Shorts:40,06272,196804
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.4 to 16.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.129.545.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.5-2.2-1.8

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 2,540 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position increase of 287 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,253 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:72.40.74.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:61.010.75.5
– Net Position:2,540-2,232-308
– Gross Longs:16,142150927
– Gross Shorts:13,6022,3821,235
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.1 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.06.921.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:27.2-24.8-13.3

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

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USD/JPY: Yen Fared Better, but Energy Rally Not Over

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY traded at 159.16 on Friday. The yen is retreating slightly but appears less weak than previously, amid a two-week truce between the US and Iran. The decline in oil prices following the announcement of the truce has partially reduced stagflationary risks and provided some support to the Japanese currency.

Investor focus is on the upcoming talks in Islamabad, where Vice President JD Vance will lead the US delegation. Meetings with the Iranian side are expected to clarify the prospects for further de-escalation.

However, sentiment remains subdued. Continued strikes in the region and ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to put the fragile truce at risk, driving ** market uncertainty.

The yen has remained under pressure since the conflict began, losing approximately 2%. Investors are factoring in rising energy prices, which add to inflationary pressures while dampening Japan’s growth outlook.

The market is now awaiting signals from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda ahead of the 28 April meeting, which could set the future direction of monetary policy.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 158.85 level, currently extending up to 159.30. A move higher towards 159.85 (testing from below) is expected today. Subsequently, a potential decline towards the 157.72 level will be considered. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero and pointing upwards from low levels.

On the H1 chart, the market is forming a wave of growth towards the 159.82 level. A wave extension to the 160.00 level is possible. Thereafter, a downward wave to at least 158.85 is expected. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below the 80 level and pointing strictly downwards.

Conclusion

USD/JPY has stabilised as the yen shows tentative signs of recovery, benefiting from the temporary truce between the US and Iran and the resulting pullback in oil prices. However, the fragility of the ceasefire – underscored by continued strikes and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz – means that energy-driven risks remain very much alive. The yen has lost approximately 2% since the conflict began, and market attention now turns to upcoming diplomatic talks in Islamabad and BOJ Governor Ueda’s signals ahead of the 28 April policy meeting. Technically, a short-term bounce in USD/JPY appears likely, but the broader trajectory will depend on whether de-escalation holds or tensions reignite.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

EUR/USD on the Plus Side: Middle East Truce Proves Fragile

By Analytical Department RoboForex

EUR/USD rose to 1.1667 on Thursday. The US dollar partially recouped its losses from the previous session, as market sentiment remains cautious amid a fragile truce between the US and Iran.

The situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains tense. According to Iranian media, the passage of tankers is still restricted following new strikes in the region. Iranian representatives have alleged violations of several ceasefire conditions.

The dollar fell sharply the previous day following the announcement of a two-week truce, which led to a drop in oil prices and temporarily eased inflation fears.

An additional factor was the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes. Some participants acknowledged the possibility of raising rates to contain inflation, though many still anticipate subsequent policy easing.

Investor attention is now focused on macroeconomic data, including consumer spending reports, the PCE index, and the upcoming CPI release, which will provide further insight into inflation. All of these could determine the near-term direction of markets.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market is forming a consolidation range around 1.1683. A downward wave is expected, with a continuation to 1.1606 as a local target. Subsequently, a move higher back to 1.1683 is anticipated. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero but pointing firmly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum and the potential for the downtrend to persist.

On the H1 chart, the market is forming the structure of the next downward wave to the 1.1616 level. After reaching this level, an increase to 1.1666 is expected, followed by a further decline to 1.1494. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains on the front foot, though the dollar has managed to claw back some ground as the US-Iran truce shows signs of strain. Reports of continued restrictions on tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz and alleged ceasefire violations have reintroduced caution into markets. The Fed minutes revealed a divided committee, with some members open to rate hikes while others lean towards eventual easing, adding to the uncertainty. With key US inflation and consumer data on the horizon, the pair’s direction remains uncertain. Technically, near-term downside appears likely, but the broader trend will depend on whether the fragile truce holds or geopolitical tensions reignite.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

EUR/USD Soars on Middle East Pause

By Analytical Department RoboForex

EUR/USD rose sharply midweek to 1.1675, reaching a four-week high. Pressure on the US dollar came after President Donald Trump postponed the threat of strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure for two weeks. The politician described this as a “bilateral ceasefire” conditional upon the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Trump, the US has received a 10-point proposal from Iran, which is being viewed as a working basis for negotiations. The two-week window could be used to reach a resolution. Iran has reportedly agreed to temporarily open the strait, provided that attacks cease. Israel has also supported the ceasefire.

At the same time, macroeconomic data point to rising inflation expectations in the US. In March, these increased, with transport costs in logistics rising markedly.

Investor attention is now focused on the release of March inflation data (CPI), which could clarify the degree of price pressure amid the ongoing conflict.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 1.1700 level. A downward wave to 1.1566 is expected as a local target. Subsequently, a move higher to 1.1717 is anticipated. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards, indicating continued bullish momentum and the potential for the uptrend to continue.

On the H1 chart, the market is forming the structure of the next downward wave to the 1.1566 level. After reaching this level, an increase to 1.1717 is expected, with the potential for the move higher to extend to 1.1730. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 80 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

EUR/USD has surged on news of a potential breakthrough in Middle East tensions, with Trump postponing strikes on Iranian infrastructure and a two-week “bilateral ceasefire” taking effect, conditional on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s reported 10-point proposal and agreement to temporarily open the strait have provided a significant boost to risk appetite, weighing on the safe-haven dollar. However, rising US inflation expectations and the upcoming CPI release remind markets that domestic price pressures remain a concern. While technical indicators suggest some near-term consolidation or pullback, the pair’s direction will ultimately depend on whether diplomatic efforts hold and whether the ceasefire translates into a more lasting de-escalation.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.