Forex and Currency News

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EUR/USD: The Advantage Remains with the Dollar

EUR/USD began the week trading around 1.1381. The US dollar has maintained its strong position following the hawkish outcome of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting. The updated projections from FOMC members confirmed the central bank’s willingness to continue tightening monetary policy, prompting markets to reassess the interest rate outlook. The probability of a rate hike in July is currently estimated at around 29%, while the likelihood of tightening in September has risen to approximately 60%.

In recent days, however, expectations have become slightly less aggressive. One reason has been the sharp decline in oil prices, which have returned to pre-conflict levels seen before the escalation in the Middle East. Lower oil prices have helped reduce inflationary concerns. Additionally, markets have largely priced in the Fed’s hawkish stance. Further appreciation of the US dollar is therefore likely to require fresh support from robust macroeconomic data, particularly employment and inflation data.

Until the release of these key reports, the dollar is expected to remain well supported. However, in the absence of new catalysts, a period of consolidation or a moderate correction cannot be ruled out. Market attention in the coming days will focus on labour market and inflation data, which will play a crucial role in shaping expectations for future Federal Reserve policy.

The outlook for the euro remains less favourable. Although the European Central Bank continues to pursue a tightening bias, much of the expected policy adjustment has already been priced into the market. Investors currently anticipate around 28 basis points of additional tightening by the end of the year, with the next ECB rate increase not expected before September.

The latest preliminary PMI data confirmed a further easing of inflationary pressures in the euro area, with price growth slowing to its lowest level since February. While business activity remains subdued, the pace of economic deterioration appears to have stabilised. An additional positive signal came from a recent ECB survey, which showed that consumers expect inflation to decline over the next 12 months and anticipate an improvement in economic conditions. While this supports the euro’s longer-term outlook, the near-term advantage remains firmly with the US dollar.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is trading within a consolidation range around 1.1405. The range currently extends between 1.1378 and 1.1414. A breakout to the upside could trigger a corrective move towards 1.1470, followed by a potential decline to 1.1385. Conversely, a downside breakout would open the way for a move towards 1.1315.

The MACD indicator supports the bearish scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards, reflecting persistent negative momentum.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD has reached 1.1414 and is now consolidating below this level. In the short term, the range may extend between 1.1369 and 1.1317, with further downside potential towards 1.1260.

The Stochastic oscillator confirms this outlook. Its signal line is currently near 80 and turning sharply lower towards 20, indicating weakening bullish momentum and increasing downside pressure.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains under pressure as the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance continues to support the US dollar. While falling oil prices and stabilising eurozone data have eased some concerns, investors remain focused on upcoming US employment and inflation reports. Unless these data disappoint significantly, the dollar is likely to retain its advantage in the near term.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

27 Jun

Currency Speculators continue to sharply raise British Pound Sterling bearish bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 23rd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (4,028 contracts) with the Brazilian Real (2,685 contracts), the Mexican Peso (2,436 contracts) and Bitcoin (49 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-34,134 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-13,891 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-9,683 contracts), Australian Dollar (-8,887 contracts), the EuroFX (-4,195 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-1,036 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-269 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators continue to sharply raise British Pound Sterling bearish bets

Highlighting this week’s currencies speculative data is the British Pound Sterling‘s sharp weakness that has pushed the current speculative position to the fourth most bearish level on record. Speculators dropped their British Pound Sterling bets this week by -34,134 contracts, marking the third consecutive week of speculator decreases — and the speculative position has now fallen by over -53,500 contracts in just these past three weeks. This weakness has brought the overall speculator standing to a total of -105,719 standing net contracts. This marks the fourth most bearish level on record and is only less bearish than the levels that were reached for the speculators’ standing in March and April of 2017. The British Pound Sterling speculator bets have now been in bearish territory for 48 consecutive weeks, dating back to July 29th of 2025. In the Forex trading market, the British Pound Sterling dipped for a second consecutive week and is now trading at the bottom of its sideways trading channel near the 1.3200 threshold. The Pound Sterling has been in this sideways trading channel for approximately a year, with the high levels being capped around 1.3800, while the bottom has seen support at 1.3150.

The Canadian Dollar speculator position continues to deteriorate and has now fallen for seven consecutive weeks. This seven-week period has added a total of -132,133 net contracts to the bearish level. This has brought the overall net position to a total of -146,792 contracts in the third consecutive week that has seen the net position with contracts higher than -100,000. The Canadian net speculative position has been in bearish territory for 14 consecutive weeks, following a reprieve from negative bets that spanned from February 3rd to March 17th. That saw positive positions for the Canadian Dollar. This coincided with higher Oil prices, which is a major factor in Canadian exports. Currently, in the Currency markets, the Canadian Dollar has been falling rapidly and has fallen in five out of the previous seven weeks. The Canadian Dollar has broken through its previously ascending triangle pattern that had seen an upward trend line coinciding with the 200-week moving average. This week, the Canadian Dollar fell to its most bearish level since April of 2025 and tested support at 0.7050.

Next up, a currency on the rise has been the US Dollar Index (DX). The Dollar Index saw a dip this week but has risen to multi-month highs in its weekly net speculator standing over the past few weeks. This week, the US Dollar Index saw a dip by a small -269 net contract bets following last week’s strong jump by +11,813 contracts. The standing US Dollar Index net position has now been over +12,000 contracts for a second consecutive week and is at the highest levels since March of 2025. Overall, the US Dollar Index net position standing has now been in bullish or positive territory for 14 out of the past 15 weeks, including the past five weeks in a row. The Dollar Index in the currency trading markets has just recently broken out of its sideways trading band that had sustained for approximately a year. The 100.00 level had provided strong resistance to the currency, but in the last two weeks, the Dollar Index has broken out above and closed this week at 101.12. This marks the highest close since April of 2025. The next level of resistance above for further bullish action is around the 102.50 level, while we could see support for the Dollar Index at the 100.00–100.50 area.

US Dollar Index leads Currency price performances

The Currencies’ price performance this week was led by the US Dollar Index, which rose by 0.43% over the past five days. The Canadian Dollar was virtually unchanged on the week, followed by the Japanese Yen, which edged down slightly by -0.11%.

Next up, the Swiss Franc also slid by a minuscule amount with a -0.13% decline, followed by the British Pound Sterling, which dipped by -0.16%, and the Brazilian Real, which also was lower by -0.16%. The Euro declined by -0.60% on the week, while the Mexican Peso was down by -0.94%.

The Currencies that fell by over 1% this week were the Australian Dollar, with a dip of -1.51%, followed by the New Zealand Dollar, which fell by -1.55% over the past five days.

The biggest decliner on the week was Bitcoin, which dropped by -5.71%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & US Dollar Index

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Bitcoin (100 percent) and the US Dollar Index (79 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (72 percent) and the Mexican Peso (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the British Pound (0 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (2 percent), the Japanese Yen (10 percent) and the Swiss Franc (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (79.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (79.8 percent)
EuroFX (41.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (43.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (0.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (10.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (9.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (18.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (21.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (21.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (27.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (48.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (53.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (2.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (13.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (53.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (51.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (71.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (69.8 percent)
Bitcoin (100.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (99.2 percent)

Bitcoin & US Dollar Index top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Bitcoin (38 percent) and the US Dollar Index (26 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Mexican Peso (7 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-56 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-51 percent), British Pound (-25 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-20 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (26.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (33.8 percent)
EuroFX (-3.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (0.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-25.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-3.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-19.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-24.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (-10.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-11.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-56.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-50.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (-50.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-42.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-17.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (3.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (7.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (6.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (-18.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-18.8 percent)
Bitcoin (37.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (33.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Positioning Notes:

US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 12,928 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,197 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.4	25.6	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.9	55.2	3.1
– Net Position:	12,928	-16,246	3,318
– Gross Longs:	34,278	14,069	5,010
– Gross Shorts:	21,350	30,315	1,692
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.0	12.3	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.3	-31.6	33.3

Euro Currency Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 30,158 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -4,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,353 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.5	55.0	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.6	62.3	6.9
– Net Position:	30,158	-57,183	27,025
– Gross Longs:	247,332	431,837	81,337
– Gross Shorts:	217,174	489,020	54,312
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.3	61.4	31.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.9	7.5	-25.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Positioning Notes:

British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -105,719 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -34,134 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -71,585 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.7	78.2	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.3	36.7	12.4
– Net Position:	-105,719	123,431	-17,712
– Gross Longs:	40,772	232,430	19,092
– Gross Shorts:	146,491	108,999	36,804
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	7.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.3	28.4	-41.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -146,104 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 4,028 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -150,132 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.4	58.5	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.3	25.5	10.1
– Net Position:	-146,104	142,381	3,723
– Gross Longs:	113,698	252,278	47,306
– Gross Shorts:	259,802	109,897	43,583
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.5	86.8	43.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.5	17.2	7.6

Swiss Franc Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -41,094 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -1,036 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,058 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	83.6	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.2	31.6	23.2
– Net Position:	-41,094	56,495	-15,401
– Gross Longs:	7,975	90,828	9,792
– Gross Shorts:	49,069	34,333	25,193
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.8	91.6	13.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.6	19.9	-31.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -146,792 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -13,891 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -132,901 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	78.0	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.3	32.6	11.5
– Net Position:	-146,792	155,789	-8,997
– Gross Longs:	39,429	267,566	30,351
– Gross Shorts:	186,221	111,777	39,348
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.3	80.7	21.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-56.2	57.3	-34.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -13,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -8,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,125 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.3	45.3	16.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.4	45.7	9.6
– Net Position:	-13,012	-863	13,875
– Gross Longs:	82,200	97,086	34,390
– Gross Shorts:	95,212	97,949	20,515
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.9	48.4	69.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-50.7	48.4	-27.5

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -54,844 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -9,683 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,161 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	84.0	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.8	28.4	6.0
– Net Position:	-54,844	57,522	-2,678
– Gross Longs:	12,114	86,813	3,469
– Gross Shorts:	66,958	29,291	6,147
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.2	98.8	15.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.9	18.0	-4.2

Mexican Peso Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 74,225 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 2,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,789 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.6	39.7	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	78.8	1.7
– Net Position:	74,225	-77,667	3,442
– Gross Longs:	112,389	78,775	6,786
– Gross Shorts:	38,164	156,442	3,344
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.6	45.5	52.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.2	-6.1	-8.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 43,679 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 2,685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,994 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	71.8	22.2	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	67.2	1.3
– Net Position:	43,679	-47,025	3,346
– Gross Longs:	74,888	23,105	4,718
– Gross Shorts:	31,209	70,130	1,372
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.7	27.7	39.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.1	18.7	-7.2

Bitcoin Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 3,524 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 49 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,475 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.5	0.3	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.4	16.2	5.9
– Net Position:	3,524	-3,253	-271
– Gross Longs:	16,348	70	935
– Gross Shorts:	12,824	3,323	1,206
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	5.3	23.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.7	-19.9	-60.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

26 Jun

GBP/USD Ends the Month with Its Worst Performance in a Year

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair continued to decline against the US dollar on Friday and is set to close June with its worst monthly performance since July last year, trading near 1.3182. Since the start of the month, sterling has lost around 2.2%. Current levels are the lowest since November last year.

Several factors are weighing on the British currency. First, lower oil prices following the easing of tensions between the US and Iran have reduced inflation risks and lowered the likelihood of more aggressive rate hikes by the Bank of England. The market now expects only one rate increase before the end of the year, compared with two that were priced in just a few weeks ago.

Domestic UK politics has become an additional source of uncertainty. Following the resignation of Prime Minister Keir Starmer, investors are awaiting the appointment of a new head of government and, most importantly, a new finance minister. Andy Burnham is seen as the most likely successor, although the composition of the future government’s economic team remains unclear.

The market is closely watching the new cabinet’s staffing decisions. These appointments will shape the country’s future fiscal policy and influence investor sentiment towards British assets.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of GBP/USD, the market completed a downward wave to 1.3140 and a growth wave towards 1.3217. In practice, a wide consolidation range is forming around 1.3200.

If the pair breaks out of this range to the upside, the potential will open for the wave to continue towards 1.3240. If the pair breaks out to the downside, the potential will open for a continuation of the decline towards 1.3033.

Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is below the zero mark and is pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD formed a compact consolidation range around 1.3180. At the moment, the range has expanded downwards to 1.3140. Further growth towards 1.3220 is expected, followed by a decline to 1.3060.

The Stochastic oscillator also supports this scenario. Its signal line is below 50 and is pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Disclaimer

Forex and Currency News Opinions

24 Jun

The Pound Is Pressured Not by Politics, but by a Strong US Dollar

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair fell to 1.3193 on Wednesday. The British pound came under pressure amid a stronger US dollar and political uncertainty in the UK following the announcement of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation.

Andy Burnham is considered the main contender for the post of head of government and has already received support from several influential figures within the ruling party. Markets are generally taking the prospect of his appointment positively, as investors expect a smooth transfer of power without serious shocks to the economy or financial markets.

The appointment of a new finance minister also remains in focus. Wes Streeting is seen as the favourite for the role. Market participants view him as a more predictable and business-friendly candidate.

Weak macroeconomic data added further pressure on the pound. According to S&P Global, business activity in the UK contracted in June at the fastest pace since April 2025. The composite PMI fell below the 50-point mark, signalling a decline in economic activity. The services sector posted its weakest performance since early 2023.

Against this backdrop, the pound declined against the US dollar, while showing little change against the euro. Investors are assessing the prospects of the new political team and its ability to support the economy. Meanwhile, the UK economy remains close to stagnation.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of GBP/USD, the market completed a downward wave to 1.3185. We expect a growth phase towards 1.3200. In practice, a wide consolidation range is forming below this level.

If the pair breaks out of the range to the upside, the potential will open for the wave to continue towards 1.3240. If the pair breaks out to the downside, the potential will open for a continuation of the decline towards 1.3140.

Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is below the zero mark and is pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD has formed a compact consolidation range around 1.3222. At the moment, the range has expanded downwards to 1.3185. Further growth towards 1.3200 is expected, followed by a decline to 1.3140.

The Stochastic oscillator also supports this scenario. Its signal line is below 50 and is pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Disclaimer

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23 Jun

EUR/USD Remains Under Sellers’ Control as the Dollar Stays Strong

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair traded near 1.1430 on Tuesday. The US dollar is refreshing its highs from March 2026, supported by expectations of further monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve, as well as cautious optimism surrounding negotiations between the US and Iran.

An additional factor for the markets was Washington’s decision to grant Tehran a temporary 60-day licence to export oil to global markets. This move strengthened expectations of a gradual recovery in global crude supply and was seen as a sign of progress in talks between the two sides.

The Federal Reserve remains the key focus for investors. After the hawkish signals delivered at the June meeting, markets continue to price in the probability of a rate hike as early as September. Major banks, including Deutsche Bank and Bank of America, have also revised their forecasts in favour of additional monetary policy tightening.

This week’s key event will be the release of the PCE index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The report may provide fresh signals about the persistence of price pressure in the US economy and influence expectations for the future path of interest rates.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market has formed a consolidation range around 1.1444 today. At the moment, the range has expanded downwards to 1.1418 and upwards to 1.1440. If the pair breaks out of this range to the upside, a corrective wave towards 1.1470 may develop. After that, a decline towards 1.1385 is expected.

If the pair breaks directly to the downside, the potential will open for a downward wave towards 1.1315.

Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator: its signal line is below the zero level and is pointing firmly downwards, reflecting a persistent bearish impulse with potential for the downtrend to continue.

On the H1 chart, the market has completed the structure of another growth wave towards 1.1449. At the moment, a consolidation range is forming below this level. Today, the range may expand downwards to 1.1409 and upwards to 1.1444. After that, a decline towards 1.1385 is expected.

The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario: its signal line is below 50 and is pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

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Financial News Forex and Currency News

19 Jun

EUR/USD Loses Ground as Market Sentiment Favours the US Dollar

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD fell on Friday to its lowest level since 31 March 2026 and is holding near 1.1457. The US dollar is being supported by rapidly growing expectations of further Federal Reserve policy tightening following more hawkish-than-expected signals from the regulator.

This week, the Fed left interest rates unchanged. However, the updated forecasts showed that half of FOMC members still see at least one rate hike as possible in the future. At the same time, the regulator raised its inflation projections, taking into account the impact of the recent conflict in the Middle East.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh did not provide the market with clear guidance on the next interest rate decision. However, he confirmed that bringing inflation back to the target level remains the US central bank’s priority.

Meanwhile, the interim peace agreement between the US and Iran has officially come into force. This helped reduce geopolitical tensions and pushed oil prices lower.

However, the market continues to focus more on the outlook for the Fed’s monetary policy than on the improved foreign policy backdrop. This is providing strong support for demand for the US dollar.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market formed a consolidation range around 1.1467 today. At the moment, the range has expanded downwards to 1.1417 and upwards to 1.1450. If the price breaks out of this range to the upside, a corrective wave towards 1.1590 is expected. After that, a decline to 1.1385 may follow. If the price breaks out directly to the downside, the potential will open for a downward wave towards 1.1313. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator: its signal line is below zero and directed firmly downwards, reflecting the persisting bearish momentum and the potential for the downtrend to continue.

On the H1 chart, the market has completed the structure of another growth wave towards 1.1480. At the moment, a consolidation range is forming below this level. Today, the relevant scenario suggests a possible expansion of the range downwards to 1.1414 and upwards to 1.1444, followed by a decline to 1.1385. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator: its signal line is below 20. A rise towards 50 is expected, followed by a firm downward move back towards 20.

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18 Jun

GBPUSD Awaits Bank of England Meeting Near April Lows

By RoboForex Analytical Department

GBPUSD is attempting to stabilise near 1.3317 on Thursday morning.

The pound sterling barely reacted on Wednesday to weaker-than-expected UK inflation data. Investors preferred to take a wait-and-see approach ahead of today’s labour market statistics and the Bank of England meeting. However, GBP still had to respond to movements in the US dollar following the Federal Reserve meeting.

Inflation in May remained at 2.8% y/y, while the market had expected it to accelerate to 3.0%. The weaker-than-forecast data revived the debate over whether the Bank of England will need to raise interest rates at all this year.

Market participants are still pricing in one rate hike before the end of the year. However, if the regulator signals that it is ready to maintain the current policy stance without taking additional steps, this could increase pressure on the British currency.

The Bank of England meeting itself is expected to end with no change in the interest rate. Nevertheless, some members of the Monetary Policy Committee, including Chief Economist Huw Pill, may once again vote in favour of tighter policy. This will be closely watched by the market.

Investors will also pay close attention to employment data, which will serve as an important reference point for the Bank of England’s future decisions. At the same time, the market is monitoring political developments in the UK, as possible changes within the ruling Labour Party could add a political risk premium to the pound.

For now, GBP remains relatively stable. However, the next 24 hours may prove decisive for expectations regarding the Bank of England’s interest rate path and the further dynamics of the British currency.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of GBP/USD, the market has completed a downward wave to 1.3262. A growth link towards 1.3340 is expected. In practice, a broad consolidation range is forming below this level. If the price breaks out of the range upwards, the potential will open for the wave to continue towards 1.3500. If the price breaks out downwards, the potential will open for a further decline towards 1.3194. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator: its signal line is below zero and directed firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart of GBPUSD, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around 1.3300. At the moment, the range has expanded downwards to 1.3297. Further growth towards 1.3340 is expected. Technically, this scenario is also confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator: its signal line is above 50 and directed firmly upwards towards 80.

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16 Jun

USDJPY Driven by Emotions: Bank of Japan Raises Rate to Highest Level Since 1995

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USDJPY pair declined to 160.13 on Tuesday after two highly volatile trading sessions. Investors remain focused on the Bank of Japan’s latest policy meeting.

The regulator raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.0%, the highest level since 1995. This move is intended to help contain inflation and support the national currency, which has remained under pressure for most of the year.

In recent weeks, the yen has been actively used in carry trade operations: investors borrowed funds in the low-yielding Japanese currency and invested them in higher-yielding assets. This increased pressure on the JPY despite the Bank of Japan’s gradual policy tightening and repeated currency interventions by Tokyo.

The main reason behind the yen’s weakness remains the significant interest rate gap between Japan and the US. As long as US rates remain substantially higher than Japanese rates, the dollar retains a structural advantage.

The market is also closely watching developments in the Middle East.

Investors expect the US and Iran to sign an agreement in Switzerland at the end of the week. If the deal is reached and leads to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, it could ease tensions in global markets and reduce demand for safe-haven assets, including the US dollar.

USDJPY Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USDJPY has formed a consolidation range around 160.20. After breaking upwards, the pair is developing a growth wave structure towards 161.50. Today, we expect this target to be reached, followed by a decline towards 160.30. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator: its signal line is above zero and pointing firmly upwards, reflecting potential for the continuation of the growth wave.

On the H1 chart, the market is forming a growth structure towards 160.51. After that, a correction towards 160.20 may be considered. The pair is then expected to rise towards 160.70, with the potential to continue the trend towards 161.50.

This scenario is supported by the Stochastic oscillator: its signal line is above 50 and moving firmly upwards towards 80, indicating that short-term upside potential remains intact.

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15 Jun

EURUSD Ahead of the New Week: Expecting High Volatility

By RoboForex Analysis Department

The EURUSD pair is starting Monday’s trading session near 1.1468.

This week, global financial markets will closely monitor two pivotal drivers: the prospects of a US-Iran nuclear deal and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. Any signs of progress in the negotiations could strip the geopolitical premium out of oil prices, subsequently weakening safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.

Concurrently, the market is bracing for the first Fed meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, which is expected to set the tone for interest rate expectations heading into the second half of the year.

This meeting is critical for EURUSD. Just last week, robust US inflation and labor market data bolstered the Greenback, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will maintain its hawkish stance. Meanwhile, investors will continue to digest the impact of the ECB’s recent rate hike, looking for further guidance from European policymakers.

Additional direction will come from US macroeconomic releases, including retail sales and industrial production, which will provide further clarity on the health of the US economy and the trajectory of its monetary policy.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

On the 4-hour chart, the EURUSD pair has formed a consolidation range around 1.1575, briefly testing the downside toward 1.1550.

Upside Scenario: A breakout above this range could trigger a corrective wave toward 1.1612, followed by a subsequent decline back to 1.1500.

Downside Scenario: A clean break below the consolidation range will open the door for a downward wave targeting 1.1444.

Technical Confirmation: The MACD indicator supports the bearish outlook. Its signal line remains above the zero mark but is pointing sharply downward, reflecting persistent bearish momentum and potential for trend continuation.

On the 1-hour chart, the market has completed an upward wave toward 1.1612 and is currently consolidating just below this level.

The immediate outlook suggests an expansion of this consolidation range—downward to 1.1500 and upward to 1.1550—before a broader decline resumes toward 1.1444.

Technical Confirmation: This scenario is backed by the Stochastic oscillator, where the signal line has crossed below the 80 level and is heading straight down toward 20, signaling oversold conditions ahead.

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14 Jun

Large Currency Speculator Roundup: Mexican Peso Bets rise as Euro, CAD Bets drop

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 9th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & Bitcoin

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (9,144 contracts) and with the Bitcoin (560 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-34,934 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-25,888 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-23,652 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-16,251 contracts), the British Pound (-11,995 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,756 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-3,325 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-3,134 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-2,374 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculator Roundup: Mexican Peso Bets rise as Euro, CAD Bets drop

Highlighting the major Currencies market futures positioning this week was the Mexican peso, which was the highest weekly gainer. The Mexican peso position rose by over 9,000 weekly contracts this week and is currently the most bullish of the Currencies right now according to net speculator position. The overall position is now at a standing of 63,801 net contracts and the peso position has been overall in a bullish level for 72 consecutive weeks. Recently, the Bank of Mexico cut its interest rate by 25 basis points to a new level of 6.50% with analysts speculating that this could end the easing cycle which began over a year ago and the next path for interest rates is uncertain. In the Forex markets, the Mexican peso has been on a strong uptrend since February 2025 with the MXN is up by over 22% since the lowest levels of 2025 against the US dollar.

Next up, the Euro speculator position dropped by over -34,000 contracts this week, marking the most bearish weekly change in the past 12 weeks. Overall, the euro speculator position has now fallen for three out of the past four weeks and has fallen to the lowest standing since April. The current level of net speculator positions is at 13,932 contracts and is essentially a neutral-to-small bullish level in the big scheme of things. The European Central Bank, this week (on Thursday June 11th), increased their interest rate by 25 basis points to a total level of 2.25% and marked the first rate increase in almost three years. Despite the weakness in speculative bets for the week, the euro price in the Forex markets continues to trade in a sideways range between 1.1500 and 1.1950, with this week’s close for the euro against the US dollar at 1.1617.

The Canadian dollar speculator position dropped sharply and has now fallen for five consecutive weeks. The Canadian dollar positioning has now fallen by -105,340 net contracts in just the past five weeks and is now at a net position standing of -119,999 contracts. This marks the lowest or most bearish level for the Canadian dollar contracts since December 9th, a span of 26 weeks. The Bank of Canada this week held its interest rate steady at 2.25%, with uncertainty which way policy could go in the near future as inflation due to the Iran war is an issue. In the Forex markets, the Canadian dollar against the US dollar saw a slight uptick this week after falling in four out of the previous five weeks that saw prices drop to the downside out of its previous ascending triangle pattern. The Canadian dollar was helped out and bounced off of resistance at the 0.7150 level, which is where support lies currently and could mark a level of down-trending action if this level is broken.

The US Dollar Index saw weekly speculator bets decline by over -2,000 contracts this week following two weeks of gains. The current US Dollar Index positioning is very much in a neutral-to-small-bullish level with an overall net speculator standing of just 1,384 contracts. The DX speculator positioning has been in this small bullish situation now for 13 consecutive weeks with only 1 small dip into a small bearish position in that time-frame. Before that, the DX positioning had been in an overall bearish level for 38 out of the previous 39 weeks through March 10th. The US Dollar Index price this week tested the upper range of its sideways channel that the currency has been in for quite some time. This channel has a low level of 96.50 with an upper resistance level of 100.00. This week, the US Dollar Index price tested the 100.00 level and was rejected lower with a close at 99.49. A breakout above 100 could see a play towards 102.50 in the near future.

Brazilian Real and Mexican Peso lead Currency market price performances

The leading gains for the major Currency markets this week saw the Brazilian Real up by 2.38% over the past five days. The Mexican Peso was next with a gain over 1% with a 1.25% rise.

The New Zealand Dollar was higher by 0.64%, followed by the British Pound Sterling, which rose by 0.50%. Next up, the Euro was higher by 0.41%, while Bitcoin was marginally higher by 0.32%. The Australian Dollar was virtually unchanged with an uptick of 0.09%, followed by the Japanese Yen, which edged higher by 0.05%, and the Swiss Franc, which saw an uptick by 0.03%.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar was lower by -0.32%. The US Dollar Index was the biggest decliner on the week with a -0.49% decline.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bitcoin (100 percent) and the Brazilian Real (72 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Australian Dollar (65 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (11 percent) and the British Pound (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (28 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (29 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (47.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (54.3 percent)
EuroFX (35.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (48.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (12.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (17.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (10.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (15.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (28.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (36.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (32.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (44.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (65.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (77.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (28.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (32.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (46.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (39.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (71.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (74.1 percent)
Bitcoin (100.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (89.8 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & Bitcoin top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (17 percent) and Bitcoin (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The Canadian Dollar (-35 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-28 percent), Japanese Yen (-12 percent) and the EuroFX (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-8.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-3.3 percent)
EuroFX (-8.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (2.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-1.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-0.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-12.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-9.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (-3.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (0.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-35.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-15.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (-27.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-11.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (16.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (23.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (-2.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-9.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (-1.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (2.5 percent)
Bitcoin (11.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (7.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Positioning Notes:

US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1,384 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -2,374 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,758 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.5	32.0	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.7	39.2	3.7
– Net Position:	1,384	-3,599	2,215
– Gross Longs:	27,908	16,092	4,059
– Gross Shorts:	26,524	19,691	1,844
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.9	46.8	96.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.4	4.9	28.6

Euro Currency Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,932 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -34,934 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,866 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	58.7	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	63.0	7.6
– Net Position:	13,932	-38,085	24,153
– Gross Longs:	219,564	511,359	90,399
– Gross Shorts:	205,632	549,444	66,246
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.0	68.0	25.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	12.7	-32.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Positioning Notes:

British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -64,213 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -11,995 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,218 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.7	74.8	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.7	48.8	12.3
– Net Position:	-64,213	75,870	-11,657
– Gross Longs:	45,743	218,025	24,172
– Gross Shorts:	109,956	142,155	35,829
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.3	89.8	23.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	4.6	-21.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -145,818 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -16,251 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -129,567 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	62.0	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.9	33.9	8.5
– Net Position:	-145,818	142,369	3,449
– Gross Longs:	121,520	313,351	46,489
– Gross Shorts:	267,338	170,982	43,040
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.6	86.8	42.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	10.9	1.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -36,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -3,756 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,909 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	82.0	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.1	38.9	21.2
– Net Position:	-36,665	49,741	-13,076
– Gross Longs:	7,335	94,612	11,370
– Gross Shorts:	44,000	44,871	24,446
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.3	80.6	23.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.1	11.4	-23.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -119,999 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -25,888 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,111 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	78.4	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.2	44.8	10.5
– Net Position:	-119,999	128,812	-8,813
– Gross Longs:	37,944	300,856	31,377
– Gross Shorts:	157,943	172,044	40,190
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.8	69.8	20.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.1	36.9	-28.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 18,160 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -23,652 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,812 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	54.9	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	66.6	6.4
– Net Position:	18,160	-36,669	18,509
– Gross Longs:	92,995	172,451	38,751
– Gross Shorts:	74,835	209,120	20,242
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.1	32.8	79.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.8	26.5	-14.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -31,571 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -3,325 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,246 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	83.4	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.0	60.2	4.0
– Net Position:	-31,571	34,705	-3,134
– Gross Longs:	11,764	124,482	2,830
– Gross Shorts:	43,335	89,777	5,964
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.8	73.1	9.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.9	-14.4	-25.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 63,801 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 9,144 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,657 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.9	45.3	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	77.3	1.7
– Net Position:	63,801	-68,351	4,550
– Gross Longs:	100,199	96,959	8,190
– Gross Shorts:	36,398	165,310	3,640
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.3	51.8	60.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	3.0	-2.3

Brazilian Real Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 43,846 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -3,134 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,980 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.0	22.2	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.9	64.0	1.2
– Net Position:	43,846	-46,946	3,100
– Gross Longs:	81,814	24,845	4,463
– Gross Shorts:	37,968	71,791	1,363
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.8	27.7	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	2.7	-7.1

Bitcoin Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 3,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 560 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,458 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	86.9	0.5	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.6	15.2	5.7
– Net Position:	3,018	-2,906	-112
– Gross Longs:	17,178	106	1,009
– Gross Shorts:	14,160	3,012	1,121
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	31.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.4	-11.8	-2.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

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