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EUR/USD Hits Three-Year High as the US Dollar Suffers Heavy Losses

The EUR/USD pair is in strong demand, surging to a three-year peak near 1.1330.

Key factors driving EUR/USD Movements

The market remains highly sensitive to growing investor concerns over the US economic outlook. Declining confidence in US assets continues to weigh on the USD.

Fears persist over the potential fallout from Donald Trump’s tariff policies. Although the imposition of steep tariffs has been delayed by 90 days, concerns about a slowdown in economic activity remain acute.

Current tariffs on Chinese goods stand at 145%, escalating trade tensions between the US and China and further dampening market sentiment. Meanwhile, the European Union has opted to suspend its retaliatory measures for the same 90-day period, with negotiators seeking a compromise.

The US dollar came under further pressure following the latest inflation data. The core consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.8% year-on-year in March – the slowest pace since spring 2021. These figures have reinforced expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart Outlook

The pair found support at 1.1155 before rallying to 1.1380
A correction towards 1.1155 is possible in the near term
Once this pullback concludes, another upside move towards 1.1400 may follow, marking the end of the current bullish wave
This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards

H1 Chart Outlook

The market has achieved its local bullish target at 1.1380
A corrective phase is forming, with 1.1155 as the next key level
A rebound towards 1.1400 could occur later today, but a subsequent decline to 1.0900 could then come into play
The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, as its signal line sits below 50 and is trending downwards towards 20

Conclusion

The EUR/USD rally reflects broad USD weakness, driven by economic concerns, trade tensions, and softening inflation. While a short-term correction is likely, the pair could extend gains towards 1.1400 before a deeper pullback materialises.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

10 Apr

Pound Rallies Sharply Weak Dollar Boosts GBP, but BoE Rate Outlook May Complicate Future Gains

By RoboForex Analytical Department

GBP/USD has risen for the third consecutive session, reaching 1.2857, primarily driven by a weaker US Dollar amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

Key factors influencing GBP/USD movements

China has raised tariffs on US goods to 84%, effective 10 April, in retaliation for the US increasing duties on Chinese imports to 104%.

Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli warned that these tariffs could dampen UK economic growth, though their impact on inflation remains uncertain.

Markets are now pricing in a high probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut in May, with expectations shifting to four cuts by the end of 2025 – up from three previously forecast. Investors are nearly 100% confident in a second cut in June, while a third reduction in September is already fully priced in.

Technical Outlook: GBP/USD

H4 Chart Analysis

GBP/USD is consolidating around 1.2825, with the potential for an upward extension to 1.2875
A downward wave towards 1.2660 remains plausible, with further downside risk to 1.2450
The MACD indicator supports this outlook, with its signal line below zero and pointing sharply downward

H1 Chart Analysis

The pair has formed a tight consolidation range near 1.2794, with scope for a rise to 1.2880 to complete the current growth wave
A subsequent decline back to 1.2794 is likely, potentially forming a new consolidation range
A breakout upwards could see a correction towards 1.2934, while a downward exit may extend the downtrend to 1.2450
The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, as its signal line sits above 80 but is trending downward towards 20

Conclusion

While the Pound benefits from Dollar weakness, the BoE’s evolving rate-cut trajectory and external trade risks could challenge further gains. Traders should monitor technical levels and central bank signals closely.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

08 Apr

Japanese Yen Recovers Some Losses as Investors Seek Safe-Haven Assets

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair has stabilised around 147.60 following two consecutive days of gains, with the yen now attempting to recoup some of its recent losses.

Key factors influencing USD/JPY movements

Uncertainty in global trade relations remains a key focus for currency markets, heightening demand for safe-haven assets. Recent reports indicate that US President Donald Trump has agreed to meet Japanese officials to initiate trade discussions following a phone call with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will lead the negotiations, underscoring the strength of the US-Japan alliance. Key topics will include tariffs, non-tariff barriers, foreign exchange policies, and government subsidies.

Despite Trump’s openness to dialogue, he has dismissed the possibility of delaying new reciprocal tariffs and warned that these measures could remain in place indefinitely. Domestically, Japan’s current account surplus for February reached a record high, buoyed by rising exports and declining imports, which has provided firm support for the yen.

Technical outlook: USD/JPY

H4 Chart: The pair achieved its local downside target at 144.50 before correcting to 148.12. Following this correction, we anticipate another potential decline towards 143.83. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains below zero and points sharply downward.

H1 Chart: The pair completed an upward structure, reaching 148.12, and is now consolidating below this level. We expect a new downward wave towards 146.27, with further downside potential to 143.83. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this outlook, with its signal line below 50 and trending firmly downward towards 20.

Conclusion

The yen’s recovery reflects ongoing market caution, with technical indicators suggesting further downside for USD/JPY. Investors will closely monitor trade developments and macroeconomic data for directional cues.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

06 Apr

Currency Speculators dropped their Bullish Bets before last week’s turmoil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 1st and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were decisively lower this week (through Tuesday) as just one out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other ten markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar with a small gain of 1,583 contracts for the week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-13,690 contracts), the British Pound (-9,657 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-7,959 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-5,171 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-3,602 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-3,481 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-3,314 contracts), Bitcoin (-688 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-482 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-427 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

FX Roundup: Currency Speculators dropped their Bullish Bets before last week’s turmoil

Highlighting the COT currency’s data for last week was that the currency bets were overall down before last week’s late-week turmoil on the US tariffs announcement. The COT data is updated each week through Tuesday (released on Friday), so we only get a glimpse to what the speculators & commercials did before the Thursday & Friday selloffs.

The specs reduced their bullish bets across the board last week except for a small uptick in bets for the Australian dollar. The largest decreases were for the Euro, British Pound and the Mexican Peso — which were three currency positions that had been seeing recent speculator sentiment gains and had overall bullish net positioning. The Swiss Franc, the Yen, the NZD and the Brazilian Real saw more modest declines. The Australian Dollar saw a small rise but the overall AUD speculator position remains very bearish at a -76,863 net contract standing at the moment. It is hard to read into any of these moves because they could be and likely to be dwarfed by this coming week’s data and positioning changes.

The price action from last week was obviously dominated by the last two days which saw a giant whipsaw take place from Thursday to Friday. Thursday’s price action had strong bullish jumps for all the major currencies, except for the US Dollar Index, which took a huge hit by over -1.50 percent. The Yen, the Swiss Franc and the Mexican Peso led the way on Thursday with increases by over +2.0 percent each while the other majors saw gains in the neighborhood of +1.0 percent.

Friday, however, was a different story and everything pretty much reversed itself. The US Dollar Index led the way on Friday with a jump by approximately +1.0 percent. The next strongest currency turned out to be the safe haven Swiss Franc — which only fell by about -0.08 percent. The other (normally) safe haven Japanese Yen dipped by -0.32 percent and the Euro fell by -0.84 percent. After that, there was a sea of red with prices dropping for the other major much more sharply — the Aussie experienced a giant drop by -5 percent, the NZD by -3.85 percent, the Real by -3.78 percent and the Peso by -2.80 percent. The Canadian Dollar and British Pound saw declines each by over 1.00 percent.

Next week, to say the least, will be an interesting one after the market digests the recent news, retrenches and re-positions itself going forward. There is considerable risk the trends continue lower like Friday but there is a possibility that like the initial shock of Covid, some markets take a plunge and then turnaround again. Stay alert.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (96 percent) and the Brazilian Real (87 percent) lead the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (62 percent), Mexican Peso (55 percent) and the British Pound (52 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (12 percent) and the Swiss Franc (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the US Dollar Index (21 percent) and the Australian Dollar (22 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (21.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (22.2 percent)
EuroFX (48.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (53.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (51.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (56.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (96.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (97.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (14.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (24.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (29.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (29.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (22.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (21.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (12.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (16.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (54.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (58.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (87.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (90.6 percent)
Bitcoin (62.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (77.0 percent)

EuroFX & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the EuroFX (39 percent) and the Brazilian Real (34 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Japanese Yen (19 percent), the Mexican Peso (19 percent) and Bitcoin (19 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-20 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-14 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-20.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-16.2 percent)
EuroFX (39.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (49.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (15.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (21.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (19.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (22.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (-8.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (2.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (6.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (9.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-13.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-8.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (8.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (9.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (18.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (22.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (34.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (37.4 percent)
Bitcoin (18.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (33.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 7,041 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -427 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,468 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.7	4.6	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.7	26.4	9.6
– Net Position:	7,041	-6,397	-644
– Gross Longs:	23,640	1,340	2,164
– Gross Shorts:	16,599	7,737	2,808
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.3	81.5	18.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.2	21.0	-10.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 51,835 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,690 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,525 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	56.6	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	68.9	7.3
– Net Position:	51,835	-82,872	31,037
– Gross Longs:	183,247	379,419	80,132
– Gross Shorts:	131,412	462,291	49,095
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.5	53.0	42.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	39.3	-37.2	12.9

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 34,626 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,283 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.1	26.9	16.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.6	47.6	13.9
– Net Position:	34,626	-38,790	4,164
– Gross Longs:	104,986	50,320	30,248
– Gross Shorts:	70,360	89,110	26,084
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.7	46.0	70.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.8	-19.7	30.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 121,774 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,602 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 125,376 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.9	31.2	15.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	75.7	10.1
– Net Position:	121,774	-138,547	16,773
– Gross Longs:	161,566	96,971	48,102
– Gross Shorts:	39,792	235,518	31,329
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.2	3.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.2	-19.9	18.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -42,764 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,593 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.6	83.8	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.6	28.0	19.3
– Net Position:	-42,764	49,769	-7,005
– Gross Longs:	4,143	74,797	10,177
– Gross Shorts:	46,907	25,028	17,182
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.2	80.6	49.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.9	-2.8	26.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -130,016 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -482 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -129,534 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.3	84.0	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.0	32.5	13.4
– Net Position:	-130,016	143,318	-13,302
– Gross Longs:	17,606	233,760	23,892
– Gross Shorts:	147,622	90,442	37,194
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.7	75.1	5.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-3.2	-18.4

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -75,863 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -77,446 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.3	65.3	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.8	22.0	15.3
– Net Position:	-75,863	79,152	-3,289
– Gross Longs:	26,211	119,373	24,740
– Gross Shorts:	102,074	40,221	28,029
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.5	77.1	40.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.6	11.2	0.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -45,048 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,567 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	81.8	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	68.7	24.4	6.7
– Net Position:	-45,048	46,893	-1,845
– Gross Longs:	11,164	66,892	3,613
– Gross Shorts:	56,212	19,999	5,458
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.4	86.8	30.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.2	-7.8	-2.2

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 51,080 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,959 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.2	31.4	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.6	67.4	3.8
– Net Position:	51,080	-50,125	-955
– Gross Longs:	86,757	43,822	4,295
– Gross Shorts:	35,677	93,947	5,250
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.8	48.4	17.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.6	-19.2	5.0

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 37,035 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,314 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.2	34.3	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.4	66.3	1.2
– Net Position:	37,035	-41,050	4,015
– Gross Longs:	69,590	44,065	5,617
– Gross Shorts:	32,555	85,115	1,602
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.4	10.4	43.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.3	-36.5	15.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 491 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -688 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,179 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	86.3	3.3	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	84.5	4.5	4.7
– Net Position:	491	-306	-185
– Gross Longs:	23,373	901	1,077
– Gross Shorts:	22,882	1,207	1,262
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.0	55.8	3.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.7	-11.1	-28.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

04 Apr

USD/JPY collapses to a 6-month low: safe-haven assets in demand

By RoboForex Analytical Department

USD/JPY is at a six-month low near 145.57 on Friday after posting a 2% gain in the previous session.

Key factors driving the USD/JPY movement

US President Donald Trump’s sweeping duties have fuelled demand for safe-haven assets. This week, Trump announced a 10% base tariff on all imports, set to take effect on 5 April. Around 60 countries are expected to face higher duties, including China (54% tariff), the EU (20%), Japan (24%), India (27%) and Vietnam (46%).

The market reacted quickly and powerfully. A new wave of tariff measures signals potentially uncontained inflation and sluggish global GDP growth. At the same time, demand increased across the full spectrum of safe-haven assets, including the yen.

Statistics from Japan showed that personal spending fell less than expected in February, suggesting some resilience in the economy.

The 2025 baseline scenario suggests that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates this year, although uncertainty surrounding global trade and domestic economic conditions casts a shadow over the outlook.

Technical outlook: USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, the USD/JPY pair has breached the 147.60 level to the downside and continues to form a wave towards the 144.76 level. The target is local. After reaching it, a correction to 147.60 is possible. Once the correction is complete, a further wave down to 144.12 is likely. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is below the zero level and is pointing sharply downwards.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has formed a consolidation range around 147.60. Following the downside breakout, the development of the third wave is underway. The target is at 144.76. Once this is reached, a corrective wave is likely. The first correction target is at 146.06. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is below 50 and heading directly towards 20.

Conclusion

With trade war fears escalating and demand for safe-haven assets surging, USD/JPY remains under pressure. Technical indicators suggest further downside, though a short-term correction is possible. Traders should monitor 144.76 as the next key support, with BoJ policy signals and global trade developments likely to determine the pair’s next significant move.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

03 Apr

GBP/USD Hits 21-Week High: The Pound Outperforms Its Peers

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair climbed to 1.3064 on Thursday, marking a 2.46% gain over the past four weeks and a 2.87% increase against the US dollar over the last 12 months. The British pound continues to strengthen, outperforming many of its major counterparts.

Key factors driving the GBP/USD rally

The UK is closely monitoring developments in US tariffs, which could have significant implications for its economy. While the new tariffs potentially threaten global trade, the UK remains in a relatively favourable position compared to the EU, Canada, China, and Mexico.

Reasons for the UK’s advantage:

The US baseline tariff rate for the UK is just 10% – the lowest among major US trading partners
The UK’s trade relationship with the US is relatively balanced, with a smaller share of reciprocal trade, reducing immediate risks

However, uncertainty looms. Policymakers anticipate a possible reversal of US tariffs, but the broader impact remains unpredictable, whether on inflation, global GDP, or trade dynamics.

Technical analysis of GBP/USD

H4 chart perspective

The pair has broken through 1.2988, surging towards 1.3095
A pullback to retest 1.2988 (now acting as support) could occur before another upward push towards 1.3103.
MACD confirmation: the signal line remains above zero and is trending upwards, supporting bullish momentum

H1 chart perspective

After consolidating around 1.2988, the pair broke higher, targeting 1.3095
Once this level is reached, a correction back to 1.2988 could follow
Stochastic indicator: the signal line is above 80 but turning downwards, suggesting a potential near-term exhaustion.

Conclusion

The pound’s resilience against the dollar reflects both fundamental strength and technical momentum. While the UK benefits from a less exposed trade stance, traders should watch tariff developments and key technical levels to gauge the next significant move.

interest rate decisions.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

02 Apr

EUR/USD Declines as Markets Await Signals of a Renewed Trade War

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair continues its gradual decline, erasing its recent technical rebound and retreating to 1.0795. Traders remain cautious as key economic and political developments loom.

Key factors driving the EUR/USD movement

Today (2 April) marks a critical date for global markets as new US tariffs on trading partners take effect. Investors are closely watching for President Donald Trump’s final decision, which could escalate trade tensions.

Earlier, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted that these tariffs could serve as leverage, pushing partner countries to negotiate lower duties. Meanwhile, recent US economic data has added to the uncertainty:

Manufacturing activity contracted in March (the first decline of 2025)
Prices increased for the second consecutive month, reflecting tariff-driven inflationary pressures
Job openings declined in February, though layoffs remained low, indicating a potential cooling in the labour market

Market focus now shifts to Wednesday’s ADP employment report and Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, which will shape expectations for the Fed’s next interest rate decisions.

Technical outlook: EUR/USD

H4 chart analysis

The pair declined to 1.0784 before correcting to 1.0825
The next likely move is a continued downward trend towards 1.0695 (first target)
A pullback to 1.0825 (testing from below) may follow (second target)
MACD confirmation: the signal line remains below zero, pointing sharply downward and supporting further bearish momentum

H1 chart analysis

The pair is forming the fifth leg of a downward wave, targeting 1.0695
A short-term decline toward 1.0715 is expected today, possibly followed by a correction to 1.0772
Stochastic oscillator confirmation: the signal line is below 50 and trending downward towards 20, reinforcing bearish momentum

Conclusion

With trade war risks resurfacing and mixed US economic signals, the EUR/USD remains under pressure. A break below 1.0695 could open the door for deeper declines, while a rebound above 1.0825 may signal temporary relief. Traders should monitor US employment data and trade policy updates for fresh directional cues.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

30 Mar

Speculators add to Japanese & European Bets while US Dollar & Commodity Currencies Bets Slide

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 25th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly overall higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound Sterling (14,881 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (7,048 contracts), the Euro (6,100 contracts), the Mexican Peso (3,087 contracts), the Japanese Yen (2,412 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (280 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-6,997 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,218 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,123 contracts), Bitcoin (-662 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (-372 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

RoundUp: Speculators continued to add to Japanese & European currencies while US Dollar & Commodity currencies see lower bets

The speculative landscape for the currency futures this week continued to be a mixed bag with some major currencies seeing sentiment gains versus the US Dollar while others continued to see weak sentiment levels persist.

The US Dollar Index futures saw slightly higher speculator contracts this week with a small gain of 280 contracts. But overall, the US Dollar Index bets have fallen in three out of the past five weeks and by a total of -9,300 contracts over these past five weeks, bringing the total bullish position to just +7,468 contracts (down by more than 50% of 3 weeks ago). The Dollar Index price has remained in a short-term downtrend that started in the new year and has taken the price from over 109.00 to the current level of approximately 104.00. The 102.50 and the very significant level of 100.00 still linger below as major support barriers if the downtrend continues.

The Euro speculator positions have continued to see positive sentiment with gains in six straight weeks and the overall position has risen by +129,950 contracts in the last six weeks through Tuesday. The Euro standing for speculators is at the highest level since September after a 20-week spell in bearish territory from October to early March. The Euro futures price trades around the 1.0825 level currently, up from around the 1.0250 levels to end 2024 but would need to breakthrough the tough 1.1250 resistance to see a strong breakout to the upside and perhaps, a new Euro bull market.

The British pound sterling led the currencies in bullish bets on the week and overall, the GBP speculator positions have risen for eight straight weeks through Tuesday. This has brought the overall spec standing to a +44,283 contract bullish position – the highest since November. The GBP futures price has been on a bullish run since the beginning of the new year and is currently right at a significant overhead resistance level of 1.3000. The test of this level will determine the next path for the GBP as a breakthrough above 1.3000 could see a retest of the 2024 high (just below 1.3500) or we could see a breakdown and testing of lower levels (200-weekly ma at 1.2715 & previous support around 1.2500-1.2650).

The Japanese yen speculators boosted their bets this week for the ninth time out of the past ten weeks with a total +154,787 contract gain over that time. This week’s spec level is the third highest level on record at a total of +125,376 contracts for the yen and demonstrates how bullish speculators are on the currency. However, it remains to be seen if this level of sentiment can propel the JPY to higher price levels. The yen remains in a historically weak position versus the US Dollar as the USDJPY trades right around the 150.00 level and the currency pair has been bid up relatively quickly anytime there is a dip below this threshold. There is going to need a sustained push below the 150.00 level to get traction on a yen bullish case.

The Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars (commodity currencies) are all in similar situations currently in terms of speculator positioning. All three sport strength scores (current levels compared to last 3-years of spec bets) of 30 or under with the Canadian dollar at 30, Australian at 21 and the New Zealand currency at 16. Recently, the New Zealand dollar speculator positions fell to an all-time record low of -55,765 contracts on March 4th. Perhaps, the worst of the sentiment is over for these currencies in this down cycle but we would need to see a sustained turning of the bearish positions in conjunction with price trends coming out of the deep downtrends all three currencies are in now.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (97 percent) and the Brazilian Real (91 percent) lead the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (77 percent), the Mexican Peso (59 percent) and the British Pound (56 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (16 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (21 percent), the US Dollar Index (22 percent) and the Swiss Franc (25 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (22.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (21.6 percent)
EuroFX (53.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (51.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (56.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (49.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (97.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (96.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (24.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (31.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (29.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (26.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (21.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (26.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (16.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (17.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (58.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (57.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (90.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (90.9 percent)
Bitcoin (77.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (91.5 percent)

EuroFX & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the EuroFX (49 percent) and the Brazilian Real (37 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. Bitcoin (34 percent), the Japanese Yen (22 percent) and the Mexican Peso (22 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-16.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-15.2 percent)
EuroFX (49.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (44.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (21.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (18.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (22.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (32.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (2.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (16.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (9.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (10.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (-8.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (3.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (9.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (10.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (22.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (22.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (37.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (38.5 percent)
Bitcoin (33.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (23.0 percent)