Forex and Currency News

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The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.11.16

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1444
Prev Close: 1.1366
% chg. over the last day: -0.69%

Deutsche Bank is calling on the ECB to tighten its monetary policy as inflation rises. Tomorrow new data on the consumer price index in Europe will be published. The growth in inflation may be a reason for the ECB to consider reducing its bond-buying program at the next ECB meeting.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3338
Resistance levels: 1.1436, 1.1528, 1.1613, 1.1667, 1.1717

From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hour time frame is bearish. The Euro continues to decline against the US dollar. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but a divergence indicates a coming correction. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell positions from the resistance levels near the moving average, as the price has deviated strongly from the averages. Buy trades should be considered only from the support levels of the higher timeframe, given the buyers’ initiative, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1528 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2021.11.16:

– Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+2);
– ECB President Lagarde’s Speech at 18:10 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Barkin speaks at 19:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Bostic speaks at 19:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Daly speaks at 22:30 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3410
Prev Close: 1.3411
% chg. over the last day: +0.01%

Despite the growth of illnesses all over Europe, the UK is not going to introduce restrictions at the moment. Today, there will be a lot of macroeconomic statistics on the British labor market, so traders should keep a close eye on the currency pairs with the British pound. Amid rumors of an interest rate hike by the Bank of England, the British pound looks more stable than the euro.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3360
Resistance levels: 1.3434, 1.3507, 1.3575, 1.3685, 1.3748

On the hourly time frame, the trend on GBP/USD is bearish. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell positions from the resistance levels near the moving average since the price has deviated strongly from the averages. Buy trades should be considered only from the support levels of the higher timeframe, given the buyer’s initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3575 resistance level and consolidates above, the bullish scenario will likely resume.

News feed for 2021.11.16:

– UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 113.89
Prev Close: 114.13
% chg. over the last day: +0.21%

As compared to the previous quarter, Japan’s GDP decreased by 0.8% and slowed down to 3.0% in annual terms. This exceeded the expectations since the COVID-19 emergency hit entrepreneurs hard, and the global chip deficit has greatly hit the export of cars. Japan’s national currency is currently trending lower as a new stimulus package is on the way.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 113.79, 113.32, 112.87, 112.30
Resistance levels: 114.29, 114.48, 115.15

The global trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. At the moment, the price is trading in the price corridor. Under such market conditions, it’s better to look for buy positions from the buyers’ initiative zone near the moving average or from the lower border of the corridor. Sell positions should be considered from the resistance levels of higher time frames, given there is sellers’ initiative, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 113.32, the uptrend will likely be broken.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2541
Prev Close: 1.2511
% chg. over the last day: -0.24%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so the USD/CAD currency pair highly depends on the dynamics of the dollar index and oil prices. Yesterday, both the dollar index and oil prices increased. But oil prices increased more confidently. As a result, the USD/CAD currency pair slightly decreased due to the strengthening of the Canadian dollar. Fundamentally, both the dollar index and oil quotes have an upward trend now, so USD/CAD will be traded flat in the medium term.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2496, 1.2416, 1.2388
Resistance levels: 1.2598, 1.2628, 1.2729

From a technical point of view, the trend of the USD/CAD currency is bullish. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but with signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades from the support levels near the moving average. Sell deals should be considered from the resistance levels of the higher time frame.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2416 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

15 Nov

COT Speculators lift US Dollar bullish bets higher for 19th out of 21 weeks

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This week’s reports are delayed due to last week’s Veteran’s Day holiday.

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 9th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT Currency data this week is the US Dollar Index which continued to creep up a little higher in the past few weeks. The dollar index speculative positions edged up higher by 466 contracts this week following an increase by just 525 contracts the previous week on November 2nd. The speculator positioning had fallen for the first time in ten weeks on October 26th before these past two small bullish increases. The USD positions have been on such a roll that bullish bets have gained in nineteen out of the past twenty-one weeks (net total gains of +37,751 contracts) and reached an approximately two-year high-point on October 19th. Currently, the USD Index maintains a bullish-extreme strength index level.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-09-2021	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	57,713	84	35,448	87	-41,095	6	5,647	78
EUR	678,368	75	3,773	36	-32,041	67	28,268	21
GBP	186,898	30	-12,093	65	17,548	40	-5,455	44
JPY	243,087	84	-105,351	3	123,199	97	-17,848	11
CHF	51,546	30	-17,043	40	20,534	54	-3,491	53
CAD	154,720	33	5,104	59	-26,608	35	21,504	79
AUD	157,269	50	-63,424	25	66,185	68	-2,761	46
NZD	43,461	31	12,882	93	-15,139	7	2,257	78
MXN	164,152	31	-48,407	1	45,684	99	2,723	55
RUB	58,349	67	20,703	62	-22,797	33	2,094	91
BRL	33,808	36	-15,458	48	15,945	55	-487	61
Bitcoin	13,821	79	-1,467	69	223	0	1,244	26

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 35,448 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 466 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,982 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.6	3.7	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	74.9	3.2
– Net Position:	35,448	-41,095	5,647
– Gross Longs:	46,521	2,130	7,516
– Gross Shorts:	11,073	43,225	1,869
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.0 to 1	4.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.9	6.3	78.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-15.5	3.7

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 3,773 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,911 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,138 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	57.5	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.8	62.2	8.2
– Net Position:	3,773	-32,041	28,268
– Gross Longs:	192,544	389,822	83,827
– Gross Shorts:	188,771	421,863	55,559
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.2	66.7	21.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-0.5	-2.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,093 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -27,140 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,047 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.9	54.3	13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.4	44.9	16.0
– Net Position:	-12,093	17,548	-5,455
– Gross Longs:	54,004	101,492	24,510
– Gross Shorts:	66,097	83,944	29,965
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.3	40.1	44.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.1	8.4	-0.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -105,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,273 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -107,624 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	83.5	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.1	32.8	16.1
– Net Position:	-105,351	123,199	-17,848
– Gross Longs:	16,440	203,044	21,297
– Gross Shorts:	121,791	79,845	39,145
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.8	97.3	11.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.3	19.8	1.5

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -17,043 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,605 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,648 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.1	63.0	27.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.2	23.2	34.1
– Net Position:	-17,043	20,534	-3,491
– Gross Longs:	4,690	32,499	14,095
– Gross Shorts:	21,733	11,965	17,586
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.2	54.0	53.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	-8.5	38.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 5,104 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 942 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	43.3	27.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.1	60.5	13.9
– Net Position:	5,104	-26,608	21,504
– Gross Longs:	43,961	67,021	42,935
– Gross Shorts:	38,857	93,629	21,431
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.3	35.0	79.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.1	-26.0	24.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -63,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,072 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,496 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.2	69.2	14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.5	27.1	16.1
– Net Position:	-63,424	66,185	-2,761
– Gross Longs:	23,844	108,880	22,621
– Gross Shorts:	87,268	42,695	25,382
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.0	68.3	45.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.6	-28.8	37.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 12,882 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -979 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,861 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.2	26.4	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.6	61.2	7.2
– Net Position:	12,882	-15,139	2,257
– Gross Longs:	25,312	11,467	5,405
– Gross Shorts:	12,430	26,606	3,148
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.9	7.1	77.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.4	-7.0	21.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -48,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,611 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,018 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.6	57.9	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	67.1	30.1	2.0
– Net Position:	-48,407	45,684	2,723
– Gross Longs:	61,791	95,074	5,976
– Gross Shorts:	110,198	49,390	3,253
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.2	98.6	54.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	12.6	2.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -15,458 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,186 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -942 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.5	60.0	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	77.2	12.8	9.4
– Net Position:	-15,458	15,945	-487
– Gross Longs:	10,644	20,275	2,676
– Gross Shorts:	26,102	4,330	3,163
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	4.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.9	54.7	60.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.5	29.2	-16.4

Russian Ruble Futures:

The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 20,703 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,982 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.0	37.0	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	76.0	1.4
– Net Position:	20,703	-22,797	2,094
– Gross Longs:	33,855	21,570	2,924
– Gross Shorts:	13,152	44,367	830
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.4	33.3	91.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.3	-1.1	16.0

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,467 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 145 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,612 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	67.0	4.1	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	77.6	2.5	6.0
– Net Position:	-1,467	223	1,244
– Gross Longs:	9,258	566	2,071
– Gross Shorts:	10,725	343	827
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.0	57.3	26.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.7	4.7	15.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

15 Nov

COT Speculator Extremes: Brent Crude Oil, Coffee, MXN & Palladium lead weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Monday (holiday delay release) for data ending on November 9th 2021.

The weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Top 5 Most Bullish and Top 5 Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Brent Oil

The Brent Oil speculator trader’s futures position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Brent speculator level is currently at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position totaled -11,851 net contracts this week which was a change by 863 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 47,922 contracts compared to the total spec short position of 59,773 contracts.

Coffee Futures

The Coffee Futures speculator trader’s futures position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Coffee speculator level is now at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 60,820 net contracts this week, a change by -3,533 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 78,364 contracts versus the total speculator short position of 17,544 contracts.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator trader’s futures position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The NZD speculator level resides at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 12,882 net contracts this week which marked a change by -979 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 25,312 contracts versus the total speculator short position of 12,430 contracts.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator trader’s futures position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The 2-Year speculator level is at a 89 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -16,737 net contracts this week and changed by 46,371 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 345,187 contracts against the total spec short position of 361,924 contracts.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator trader’s futures position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The USD Index speculator level sits at a 87 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 35,448 net contracts this week which was a move of 466 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 46,521 contracts in comparison to the total speculator short position of 11,073 contracts.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator trader’s futures position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The MXN speculator level is at a 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -48,407 net contracts this week, a weekly change of 2,611 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 61,791 contracts versus the total spec short position of 110,198 contracts.

Palladium

The Palladium speculator trader’s futures position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Palladium speculator level is at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -2,954 net contracts this week which was a change by 437 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 2,701 contracts compared to the total speculator short position of 5,655 contracts.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator trader’s futures position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The JPY speculator level resides at a 3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -105,351 net contracts this week saw movement by 2,273 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 16,440 contracts against the total spec short position of 121,791 contracts.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator trader’s futures position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The 5-Year speculator level is at a 8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -407,485 net contracts this week which was a change by -31,132 contracts on the week. The speculator long position was a total of 258,018 contracts versus the total speculator short position of 665,503 contracts.

Nikkei 225 Yen

Finally, the Nikkei 225 Yen speculator trader’s futures position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Nikkei 225 Yen speculator level is at a 21 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -303 net contracts this week and changed by -2,188 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 9,198 contracts compared to the total spec short position of 9,501 contracts.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

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15 Nov

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Seeks Consolidation

By Orbex

USDJPY hits temporary resistance

The Japanese yen pulled back after a larger-than-expected GDP contraction in Q3. The US dollar is looking to hold onto its gains after a rally above 114.00.

Sentiment has recovered and a surge above 114.45 around the October peak would resume the uptrend. However, the current rebound may lack the strength to clear the supply zone right away.

An overbought RSI has held the bullish fever back. A breach below 113.70 would lead to a deeper correction towards 112.80, which is a key level to keep the rebound relevant.

EURCHF struggles for support

The euro bounced higher after the bloc’s industrial production beat expectations in September.

The RSI’s oversold situation on the daily chart has attracted bargain hunters’ attention around 1.0530, a demand area from May 2020. Price action had three failed attempts to lift offers at 1.0600, a sign of strong selling pressure to keep the downtrend going.

A bullish breakout may trigger a runaway rally as sellers seek to exit a crowded short bet. A bearish one would send the single currency to 1.0490.

UK 100 tests support

The FTSE 100 edged lower after active job postings in the UK hit a record high.

The index came under pressure at the psychological level of 7400. A combination of an overbought RSI and its bearish divergence suggests that the rally was losing momentum. Sentiment remains upbeat and a pullback could be an opportunity to get filled at a better price.

Trend followers may be waiting to buy the dip near the first support at 7315. A deeper correction would send the price to 7255 along the 30-day moving average.

Article by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

15 Nov

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 15.11.2021 (GOLD, USDCHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

In the H4 chart, after reaching 50.0% fibo, XAUUSD is correcting around this level. After the correction is over, the next upside targets may be 61.8% and 76.0% fibo at 1908.00 and 1969.50 respectively. However, the key upside target is the all-time high at 2074.75. The key support is the low at 1638.76.

The H1 chart shows a more detailed structure of the current correction and its targets, which are 23.6%, 38.2%, and 50.0% fibo at 1842.72, 1826.75, and 1814.00 respectively. A breakout of the local resistance at 1868.92 will result in a further uptrend towards the short-term post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 1876.75 and 1903.00 respectively.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after completing the rising wave at 50.0% fibo, the asset has started a new pullback. After the pullback is over, the pair may resume growing towards 61.8% and 76.0% fibo at 0.9260 and 0.9300 respectively. The key upside target is the high at 0.9368, while the key support is at 0.9085.

In the H1 chart, divergence on MACD made the pair start a new pullback, which is now testing 38.2% fibo at 0.9186. The next downside target will be 50.0% fibo at 0.9170. The resistance is at 0.9238.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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15 Nov

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 15.11.2021 (USDCAD, AUDUSD, USDCHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming several reversal patterns, including Hanging Man, close to the resistance level, USDCAD is reversing in the form of a new decline. In this case, the downside target may be the support area at 1.2495. However, an alternative scenario implies that the asset may continue growing to reach 1.2605 without testing the support area.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, AUDUSD has formed several reversal patterns, such as Inverted Hammer, near the support level. At the moment, the asset is reversing in the form of a new correctional wave. In this case, the target may be the resistance area at 0.7385. At the same time, an opposite scenario implies that the price may continue falling to reach 0.7270 without testing the channel’s upside border.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after testing the resistance area, the pair has formed several reversal patterns, for example, Shooting Star. At the moment, USDCHF is reversing in the form of a new correctional wave towards the support level. In this case, the downside target may be at 0.9165. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, according to which the asset may continue growing to reach 0.9250 without testing the support level.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

15 Nov

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.11.15

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1451
Prev Close: 1.1443
% chg. over the last day: -0.07%

Inflationary pressures in Germany continue to update records. Wholesale prices in Germany increased to 15.2% in October, the highest level since March 1974. But hedge fund analysts believe inflation in the Eurozone will remain at the same level. The inflation data in Europe will be released Wednesday this week.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1436
Resistance levels: 1.1535, 1.1573, 1.1613, 1.1645, 1.1667, 1.1717, 1.1772

From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hour time frame is bearish. The MACD indicator has become inactive, but traders should expect a technical rebound because of MACD divergence. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell positions from the resistance levels near the moving average since the price has deviated strongly from the averages. Buy trades should be considered only from the support levels of the higher time frame, given the buyers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1573 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3365
Prev Close: 1.3412
% chg. over the last day: +0.35%

At the moment, investors prefer to buy US dollars as the Fed has already started cutting the QE program, while the Bank of England left the monetary policy unchanged at its last meeting. But the rhetoric of the Bank of England Governor changed dramatically last week, who promised that the central bank of England is already preparing to hike interest rates. Last week’s UK GDP data was worse than expected, so if this week’s inflation data is worse than expected, the British pound could rise sharply on expectations of a rate hike.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3360
Resistance levels: 1.3508, 1.3616, 1.3685, 1.3748, 1.3780, 1.3831, 1.3886

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3617 resistance level and consolidates above, the bullish scenario will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 114.05
Prev Close: 113.91
% chg. over the last day: -0.12%

At the moment, there are no fundamental reasons for the USDJPY quotes to go down in the mid-term since the Bank of Japan has kept its monetary policy soft until the end of the year. At the same time, the Fed has been already cutting QE and is likely to accelerate cuts due to a sharp rise in inflation. This week, Japan will report on inflation, but analysts don’t expect any regional inflation rise, so USDJPY quotes are inclined to grow in the mid-term.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 113.42, 112.95, 112.30, 111.53, 110.99, 110.65
Resistance levels: 114.48, 115.15

The global trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. On Friday, the quotes were slightly decreased because of MACD divergence. Under such market conditions, it’s better to look for buy positions from the buyers’ initiative zone near the moving average. Sell positions should be considered from the resistance levels of higher time frames, given there is sellers’ initiative, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 112.87, the uptrend will likely be broken.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2570
Prev Close: 1.2544
% chg. over the last day: -0.21%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so the USD/CAD currency pair highly depends on the dollar index dynamics and oil prices. On Friday, the dollar index was trading flat, while oil prices slightly increased, which led to the temporary strengthening of the Canadian dollar and a decrease of USD/CAD quotes. Fundamentally, both the dollar index and oil quotes have an upward trend now, so in the medium term USD/CAD will be trading flat.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2496, 1.2456, 1.2417, 1.2388
Resistance levels: 1.2598, 1.2628, 1.2729, 1.2774

From a technical point of view, the trend of the USD/CAD currency is bullish. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades from the support levels near the moving average since the price has strongly deviated from its averages. Sell deals should be considered from the resistance levels of the higher time frame.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2388 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

12 Nov

Fibonacci Retracement Analysis 12.11.2021 (AUDUSD, USDCAD)

Article By RoboForex.com

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

On H4, a phase of correctional growth stopped above 50.0%, failing just a bit to reach 61.8% (0.7591) Fibo. Now a new wave of decline is aiming at the last low of 0.7106. After a breakaway, the quotations can head for the medium-term level of 38.2% (0.7052).

On H1, a wave of decline is testing 61.8% and can go over it to 76.0% (0.7215) Fibo. With such a technical picture, note a convergence forming on the MACD, which might indicate a short-term pullback after the target level is reached. The main resistance is at the high of 0.7556.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

On D1, there is another wave of the bullish phase after a correctional decline. The aims of the new wave will be 38.2% (1.3022), 50.0% (1.3336), and 61.8% (1.3650) Fibo. Support is at the low of 1.2007.

On H4, the upward movement can be seen in more detail after a convergence on the MACD. By now, the quotations have come over 38.2% Fibo and are nearing 50.0% (1.2618). Leaving these levels behind, the pair can reach 61.8% (1.2696) and 76.0% (1.2791), while the high of 1.2949 can act as the main resistance level. Local support is at the low of 1.2288.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

12 Nov

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Keeps Bullish Momentum

By Orbex

GBPUSD buried in bearish territory

The pound continues to retreat after Britain’s growth fell short of expectations in Q3. A break below September’s low at 1.3420 has invalidated the latest rebound, putting buyers on the defensive once again.

The RSI’s double bottom in the oversold area may ease the bearish push momentarily. A bounce could be an opportunity to sell into strength.

1.3500 is the immediate resistance. On the downside, renewed momentum would drive price action towards last December’s lows around 1.3200.

AUDUSD struggles for support

The Australian dollar came under pressure after the unemployment rate returned above 5% last month.

The sell-off continued after a brief pause over the 30-day moving average near 0.7390, turning the latter into a fresh resistance. The lack of support suggests increasingly downbeat sentiment.

The base of October’s bullish breakout at 0.7240 is the next support. The RSI’s oversold situation may cause a limited rebound from the round number at 0.7300, though it is likely to turn out to be a dead cat bounce.

US 100 tests demand zone

The Nasdaq 100 suffers losses as high inflation dents risk appetite.

An RSI divergence showed a deceleration in the uptrend, a sign that the rally has overheated. Subsequently, a drop below 16200 has prompted leveraged buyers to exit for fear of a correction.

As the RSI inched into the oversold territory, the index saw bids near the breakout zone (15900) from earlier this month. The support-turned-resistance at 16200 is the first hurdle. Then the bulls will need to clear 16400 before the rally can resume.

Article by Orbex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

12 Nov

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 12.11.2021 (GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD)

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The currency pair is trading at 1.3367 under the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting a downtrend. A test of the signal lines of the indicator at 1.3455 is expected, followed by falling to 1.3145. An additional signal confirming the decline might become a bounce off the upper border of the descending channel. The scenario can be canceled by a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and securing above 1.3635, which will mean further growth to 1.3725.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

The currency pair is trading at 114.22 above the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud at 113.80 is expected, followed by growth to 115.50. An additional signal confirming the growth might become a bounce off the upper border of the descending channel. The scenario can be canceled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 113.05, which will mean further falling to 112.15. The growth can be confirmed by a breakaway of the resistance area and securing above 114.50: this level has been tested several times, yet buyers failed to break through it.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

The currency pair is trading at 1.2583 above the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting an uptrend. A test of the signal lines of the indicator at 1.2525 is expected, followed by growth to 1.2740. An additional signal confirming the growth might become a bounce off the upper border of the ascending channel. The scenario can be canceled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.2345, which will mean further falling to 1.2255.

Article By RoboForex.com

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