COT Speculators lift US Dollar bullish bets higher for 19th out of 21 weeks

November 15, 2021

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This week’s reports are delayed due to last week’s Veteran’s Day holiday.

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 9th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT Currency data this week is the US Dollar Index which continued to creep up a little higher in the past few weeks. The dollar index speculative positions edged up higher by 466 contracts this week following an increase by just 525 contracts the previous week on November 2nd. The speculator positioning had fallen for the first time in ten weeks on October 26th before these past two small bullish increases. The USD positions have been on such a roll that bullish bets have gained in nineteen out of the past twenty-one weeks (net total gains of +37,751 contracts) and reached an approximately two-year high-point on October 19th. Currently, the USD Index maintains a bullish-extreme strength index level.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Nov-09-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
USD Index 57,713 84 35,448 87 -41,095 6 5,647 78
EUR 678,368 75 3,773 36 -32,041 67 28,268 21
GBP 186,898 30 -12,093 65 17,548 40 -5,455 44
JPY 243,087 84 -105,351 3 123,199 97 -17,848 11
CHF 51,546 30 -17,043 40 20,534 54 -3,491 53
CAD 154,720 33 5,104 59 -26,608 35 21,504 79
AUD 157,269 50 -63,424 25 66,185 68 -2,761 46
NZD 43,461 31 12,882 93 -15,139 7 2,257 78
MXN 164,152 31 -48,407 1 45,684 99 2,723 55
RUB 58,349 67 20,703 62 -22,797 33 2,094 91
BRL 33,808 36 -15,458 48 15,945 55 -487 61
Bitcoin 13,821 79 -1,467 69 223 0 1,244 26

 


US Dollar Index Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 35,448 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 466 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,982 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent.


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US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.6 3.7 13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.2 74.9 3.2
– Net Position: 35,448 -41,095 5,647
– Gross Longs: 46,521 2,130 7,516
– Gross Shorts: 11,073 43,225 1,869
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.2 to 1 0.0 to 1 4.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 86.9 6.3 78.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.5 -15.5 3.7

 


Euro Currency Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 3,773 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,911 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,138 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.4 57.5 12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.8 62.2 8.2
– Net Position: 3,773 -32,041 28,268
– Gross Longs: 192,544 389,822 83,827
– Gross Shorts: 188,771 421,863 55,559
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.2 66.7 21.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.9 -0.5 -2.1

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,093 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -27,140 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,047 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.9 54.3 13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.4 44.9 16.0
– Net Position: -12,093 17,548 -5,455
– Gross Longs: 54,004 101,492 24,510
– Gross Shorts: 66,097 83,944 29,965
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.3 40.1 44.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.1 8.4 -0.2

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -105,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,273 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -107,624 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.8 83.5 8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.1 32.8 16.1
– Net Position: -105,351 123,199 -17,848
– Gross Longs: 16,440 203,044 21,297
– Gross Shorts: 121,791 79,845 39,145
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.8 97.3 11.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.3 19.8 1.5

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -17,043 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,605 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,648 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.1 63.0 27.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 42.2 23.2 34.1
– Net Position: -17,043 20,534 -3,491
– Gross Longs: 4,690 32,499 14,095
– Gross Shorts: 21,733 11,965 17,586
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.2 54.0 53.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.5 -8.5 38.0

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 5,104 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 942 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.4 43.3 27.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.1 60.5 13.9
– Net Position: 5,104 -26,608 21,504
– Gross Longs: 43,961 67,021 42,935
– Gross Shorts: 38,857 93,629 21,431
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.3 35.0 79.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.1 -26.0 24.3

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -63,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,072 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,496 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.2 69.2 14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 55.5 27.1 16.1
– Net Position: -63,424 66,185 -2,761
– Gross Longs: 23,844 108,880 22,621
– Gross Shorts: 87,268 42,695 25,382
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 25.0 68.3 45.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.6 -28.8 37.9

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 12,882 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -979 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,861 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 58.2 26.4 12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.6 61.2 7.2
– Net Position: 12,882 -15,139 2,257
– Gross Longs: 25,312 11,467 5,405
– Gross Shorts: 12,430 26,606 3,148
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 92.9 7.1 77.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.4 -7.0 21.8

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -48,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,611 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,018 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.6 57.9 3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 67.1 30.1 2.0
– Net Position: -48,407 45,684 2,723
– Gross Longs: 61,791 95,074 5,976
– Gross Shorts: 110,198 49,390 3,253
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1 1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 1.2 98.6 54.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.0 12.6 2.6

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -15,458 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,186 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -942 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.5 60.0 7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 77.2 12.8 9.4
– Net Position: -15,458 15,945 -487
– Gross Longs: 10,644 20,275 2,676
– Gross Shorts: 26,102 4,330 3,163
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 4.7 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.9 54.7 60.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -27.5 29.2 -16.4

 


Russian Ruble Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 20,703 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,982 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 58.0 37.0 5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.5 76.0 1.4
– Net Position: 20,703 -22,797 2,094
– Gross Longs: 33,855 21,570 2,924
– Gross Shorts: 13,152 44,367 830
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 3.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 62.4 33.3 91.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.3 -1.1 16.0

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,467 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 145 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,612 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 67.0 4.1 15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 77.6 2.5 6.0
– Net Position: -1,467 223 1,244
– Gross Longs: 9,258 566 2,071
– Gross Shorts: 10,725 343 827
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.7 to 1 2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.0 57.3 26.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.7 4.7 15.3

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.