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Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 194

COT Speculators push US Dollar bullish bets higher for 20th time in 23 weeks

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Monday due to the Thanksgiving holiday last week.

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 23rd 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting last week’s currency data is the US Dollar Index speculator bets continuing to climb higher. The Dollar Index positions rose for the third time in the past four weeks and have now increased for twenty out of the past twenty-three weeks as the net position has risen by a total of 38,078 contracts over that period. The dollar positioning has been over the +34,000 contract level for seven weeks in a row and if the position hits above +40,000 contracts, it would mark the first time since October of 2019 to hit that threshold. The Dollar Index strength index (compared to its three year range of positioning) remains in extreme bullish territory (over 80 percent) at an 87.5 score and has now been above 80 percent for eight consecutive weeks. The last time the Dollar Index had registered a bullish extreme level was also in October of 2019 when it rose as high as 94.5 percent before cooling off.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-23-2021	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	57,694	84	35,775	87	-41,146	6	5,371	75
EUR	711,685	88	-16,452	30	-16,835	71	33,287	30
GBP	213,313	47	-34,579	49	45,803	57	-11,224	32
JPY	251,801	90	-97,253	8	116,225	94	-18,972	9
CHF	52,412	31	-11,376	50	21,522	55	-10,146	34
CAD	150,275	30	-3,135	52	-11,397	45	14,532	69
AUD	188,033	74	-63,265	25	73,423	74	-10,158	28
NZD	44,524	33	13,939	95	-14,860	7	921	62
MXN	184,243	40	-49,461	1	50,588	100	-1,127	38
RUB	51,535	56	18,064	56	-19,323	41	1,259	69
BRL	34,375	36	-14,804	49	15,360	54	-556	60
Bitcoin	14,357	83	-160	100	729	0	-569	0

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 35,775 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 867 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,908 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.7	3.0	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	74.3	3.4
– Net Position:	35,775	-41,146	5,371
– Gross Longs:	47,116	1,739	7,357
– Gross Shorts:	11,341	42,885	1,986
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.0 to 1	3.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.5	6.2	75.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	2.6	-24.7

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -16,452 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,626 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,826 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.7	56.7	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.0	59.1	8.1
– Net Position:	-16,452	-16,835	33,287
– Gross Longs:	204,214	403,595	90,690
– Gross Shorts:	220,666	420,430	57,403
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.9	71.0	29.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.6	-2.2	9.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -34,579 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,980 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,599 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.5	62.8	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.7	41.3	15.8
– Net Position:	-34,579	45,803	-11,224
– Gross Longs:	50,122	133,888	22,470
– Gross Shorts:	84,701	88,085	33,694
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.1	56.8	32.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.3	15.1	-6.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -97,253 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,127 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -93,126 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	81.8	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.7	35.6	16.4
– Net Position:	-97,253	116,225	-18,972
– Gross Longs:	20,285	205,923	22,338
– Gross Shorts:	117,538	89,698	41,310
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.8	93.9	8.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.9	10.5	-1.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -11,376 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,889 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	65.6	22.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.6	24.6	41.7
– Net Position:	-11,376	21,522	-10,146
– Gross Longs:	6,241	34,403	11,695
– Gross Shorts:	17,617	12,881	21,841
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.1	55.1	33.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.8	-9.5	20.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -3,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,844 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,709 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.5	44.0	24.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.6	51.6	15.0
– Net Position:	-3,135	-11,397	14,532
– Gross Longs:	44,320	66,164	37,111
– Gross Shorts:	47,455	77,561	22,579
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.4	44.5	68.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.6	-14.5	-2.4

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -63,265 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,112 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,153 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.6	65.4	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.2	26.3	15.5
– Net Position:	-63,265	73,423	-10,158
– Gross Longs:	40,523	122,921	18,914
– Gross Shorts:	103,788	49,498	29,072
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.1	73.7	27.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.9	-21.3	10.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 13,939 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -26 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,965 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.5	24.6	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.2	58.0	8.3
– Net Position:	13,939	-14,860	921
– Gross Longs:	27,835	10,943	4,596
– Gross Shorts:	13,896	25,803	3,675
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.7	7.5	62.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-10.3	17.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -49,461 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,806 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,655 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.8	53.2	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	70.6	25.7	2.9
– Net Position:	-49,461	50,588	-1,127
– Gross Longs:	80,691	98,029	4,234
– Gross Shorts:	130,152	47,441	5,361
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.7	100.0	38.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	5.7	-12.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -14,804 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 894 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	64.7	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	69.8	20.0	8.8
– Net Position:	-14,804	15,360	-556
– Gross Longs:	9,197	22,233	2,462
– Gross Shorts:	24,001	6,873	3,018
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	3.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.8	53.9	60.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.3	20.6	-12.5

Russian Ruble Futures:

The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 18,064 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,561 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,625 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.7	45.2	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	82.7	2.6
– Net Position:	18,064	-19,323	1,259
– Gross Longs:	25,617	23,317	2,601
– Gross Shorts:	7,553	42,640	1,342
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.1	41.2	68.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.9	5.5	-31.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -160 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,318 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,478 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.1	6.7	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.2	1.7	18.5
– Net Position:	-160	729	-569
– Gross Longs:	9,054	966	2,094
– Gross Shorts:	9,214	237	2,663
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	4.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.6	100.0	0.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.6	16.6	-32.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

29 Nov

GBPJPY End Of Correction Hints At Fresh Highs!

By Orbex

In the long run, GBPJPY seems to be forming a cycle impulse. Now the third part of this impulse, wave III, is under development.

Only the second half of the bullish impulse wave III is visible on the current chart. It seems that the price reduction within the bearish correction ④ of the primary degree has come to an end in its composition. This correction took the form of an intermediate triple zigzag.

If our assumption is right and the correction has ended, then in the near future the price is likely to rise in the primary wave ⑤. This can take the form of either an impulse or an ending diagonal.

The entire primary wave ⑤ can complete its pattern near 163.38. At that level, it will be at 61.8% of wave ③.

It is possible that the formation of the primary correction ④ can continue. In an alternative scenario, it may take the form of an intermediate double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y).

The actionary wave (W) is a triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z. And it is likely that the second actionary wave (Y) will also be a triple zigzag, as shown on the chart.

If this scenario is confirmed, then we should expect a bearish price movement within the minor sub-waves Y-X-Z to the level of 145.71, where wave ④ will be at 50% of impulse ③.

Article by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

29 Nov

Intraday Market Analysis – Yen’s Rally Gains Traction

By Orbex

EURJPY breaks double bottom

The safe-haven Japanese yen soars on news of a vaccine-resistant covid variant. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart indicates weakness in the euro’s previous rebound.

The pair has closed below last September’s low at 127.90, a major floor to keep price action afloat in the medium term. This is a bearish signal that the sell-off is yet to end with 127.00 as the next support.

The RSI’s double bottom in the oversold area may attract some buying interest. However, the bulls will need to lift 129.50 before a reversal could take shape.

GBPUSD struggles to bounce back

The pound continues on its way down against the US dollar over divergent monetary policy. The pair is hovering near a 12-month low around 1.3280.

Sentiment remains bearish after a failed rebound above 1.3420. A bullish RSI divergence suggests a deceleration in the downward momentum.

1.3390 is the first hurdle ahead. Its breach would prompt the short side to cover and open the door to the daily resistance at 1.3510. Otherwise, a bearish breakout would send the price to 1.3200.

GER 40 to test major floor

The Dax 40 plunged as investors fret that new lockdowns could wreck the recovery. The gap below 15760 has forced leveraged buyers to bail out, stirring up volatility in the process.

The momentum is typical of a catalyst-driven sell-off. Below 15150 the index is testing the psychological level of 15000. The RSI’s oversold situation has attracted a ‘buying-the-dips’ crowd in the demand zone.

Further down, 14820 is a key floor to maintain the uptrend. 15530 has become the closest resistance in case of a rebound.

Article by Orbex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

29 Nov

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 29.11.2021 (GOLD, USDCHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

In the H4 chart, XAUUSD is correcting downwards. After the correction is over, the next upside targets may be 61.8% and 76.0% fibo at 1908.00 and 1969.50 respectively. The key support is the low at 1638.76.

As we can see in the H1 chart, the pair is moving upwards after convergence on MACD. At the same time, there is a possibility that the descending correction may yet continue to break the low at 1773.58 and then reach 76.0% fibo at 1759.10. So far, the first rising impulse is testing 23.6% fibo at 1798.04 and may later continue towards 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8%, and 76.0% fibo at 1813.21, 1825.35, 1837.49, and 1852.13 respectively. The key upside target is the current high at 1877.09.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after breaking the high at 0.9368 but failing to continue its growth, the asset started a new correction, which has already reached 50.0% fibo and may later continue towards 61.8% and 76.0% fibo at 0.9196 and 0.9155 respectively. On the other hand, a breakout of the high at 0.9374 will result in a further uptrend towards the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 0.9474 and 0.9541 respectively. The key support is at 0.9085.

In the H1 chart, after completing the correctional decline and breaking 23.6% fibo, the pair is growing to reach 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8%, and 76.0% fibo at 0.9276, 0.9295, 0.9313, and 0.9336 respectively. The local support is at 0.9215.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

29 Nov

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 29.11.2021 (EURUSD, USDCAD, GBPJPY)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is trading at 1.1281; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1.1285 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.1105. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.1375. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.1465.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is trading at 1.2750; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 1.2685 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.2965. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.2585. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.2495.

GBPJPY, “Great Britain Pound vs Japanese Yen”

GBPJPY is trading at 150.87; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 151.30 and then resume moving downwards to reach 149.15. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the upside border of the Triangle pattern. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 162.55. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 153.45. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the support level and fix below 150.10, thus indicating a breakout of the pattern’s downside border.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

29 Nov

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.11.29

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1208
Prev Close: 1.1307
% chg. over the last day: +0.88%

Electricity prices in the Eurozone are rising again despite the risk of another lockdown. Inflationary pressures in Germany continue to rise. German import prices have increased to 21.7% in annual terms, the largest value since 1980. Germany will report today on the inflation rate.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1230, 1.1168
Resistance levels: 1.1350, 1.1436, 1.1535, 1.1613, 1.1667, 1.1717

From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hour time frame is bearish. The MACD indicator has become positive; there is a buyers’ initiative. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell positions from the priority change level of 1.1350. Buy trades should be considered only from the support levels of the higher time frame, given the buyers’ initiative, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1350 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2021.11.29:

– Germany Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+2);
– S Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– ECB President Lagarde’s Speech at 19:15 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Clarida’s Speech at 20:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Williams’s Speech at 22:00 (GMT+2);
– US Fed Chair Powell’s Speech at 22:05 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3320
Prev Close: 1.3326
% chg. over the last day: +0.05%

Last month, the price spike in the UK forced some industrial companies to cut production and seek government aid. For the government, it could mean tensions with neighboring countries over supply protection measures. For households, it could mean being asked to use less energy.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3307
Resistance levels: 1.3360, 1.3434, 1.3507, 1.3575, 1.3685, 1.3748

On the hourly time frame, the trend on GBP/USD is bearish. The MACD indicator has become inactive but is signaling divergence on several time frames. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell positions from the support levels around the moving average. The buyers need to get the price back above the 1.3360 level, so buy trades should be considered only if the price returns to the 1.3360-1.3507 corridor, given the buyers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3434 resistance level and consolidates above, the bullish scenario will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 115.29
Prev Close: 113.23
% chg. over the last day: -1.82%

The Japanese yen strengthened sharply on Friday as a new strain of Covid-19 detected in South Africa sparked a wave of caution in global markets. The Japanese Yen is one of the “safe-haven” currencies in case of emergency shocks. But it is important to understand that this can only be a temporary effect. Fundamentally, there is no reason for JPY to get stronger as the Bank of Japan plans to keep its stimulus program as long as possible while the US FED has been already cutting the program.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 112.87, 112.30
Resistance levels: 113.79, 114.48, 115.15, 115.50

The global trend on the USD/JPY currency pair has changed to bearish. The price confidently broke through the priority change level and consolidated lower. Under such market conditions, it is best for traders to look for sell positions from the resistance levels around the moving average. Given the buyers ‘ initiative, buy positions should be considered from the support levels of the higher time frames.

Alternative scenario: if the price rises above 115.15, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2021.11.29:

– Japan Retail Sales at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Japan BoJ Gov Haruhiko Kuroda’s Speech (Tentative).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2647
Prev Close: 1.2786
% chg. over the last day: +1.10%

On Friday, oil prices fell sharply as news of the new strain “Omicron.” caused many countries to rush to restrict travel, which strengthened the concerns that there may be an excess supply in the first quarter of next year. The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so the CAD fell sharply against the dollar amid a drop in oil.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2729, 1.2646, 1.2598, 1.2571, 1.2483, 1.2416, 1.2388
Resistance levels: 1.2807

From a technical point of view, the trend of the USD/CAD currency is bullish. The MACD indicator became positive, the pressure of buyers is increasing. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades from the support levels near the moving average. Sell deals should be considered from the resistance levels of the higher time frames.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2646 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2021.11.29:

– Canada BoC Gov Macklem’s Speech at 21:00 (GMT+2).

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

26 Nov

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.11.26

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1196
Prev Close: 1.1205
% chg. over the last day: +0.08%

Germany’s GDP growth estimate for Q3 worsened to 1.7% from 1.8%. Analysts believe the economic performance across Europe will worsen in Q4 due to the introduction of new restrictions to combat the Covid-19 wave.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1168
Resistance levels: 1.1256, 1.1386, 1.1436, 1.1535, 1.1613, 1.1667, 1.1717

From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair is bearish on the hour time frame. The Euro continues to show weakness, the price is slowly declining, and buyers’ attempts to buy back the movement give only a small intraday bounce. The MACD indicator has become inactive, but there are signs of divergence at several time frames, so traders should expect a technical rebound. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell positions from the resistance levels near the moving average since the price has strongly deviated from the averages. Buy trades should be considered only from the support levels of the higher time frame, given the buyers’ initiative, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1386 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2021.11.26:

– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde’s Speech at 10:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3323
Prev Close: 1.3320
% chg. over the last day: -0.02%

The UK health secretary said that vaccines may be less effective against the new variant of Covid-19. According to an official government report, the UK failed to prepare properly for a coronavirus pandemic because resources were focused on Brexit. The UK not only recorded the highest number of deaths in Europe – more than 140,000 so far – but it also suffered the sharpest economic hit among the developed countries.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3307
Resistance levels: 1.3360, 1.3434, 1.3507, 1.3575, 1.3685, 1.3748

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3507 resistance level and consolidates above, the bullish scenario will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 115.41
Prev Close: 115.31
% chg. over the last day: -0.09%

The Japanese yen strengthened sharply in early Friday trading as a new strain of Covid-19 detected in South Africa sparked a wave of caution in global markets. The Japanese Yen is one of the “safe-haven” currencies in case of emergency shocks.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 114.38, 113.79, 113.32, 112.87, 112.30
Resistance levels: 115.15, 115.50

The global trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. But the MACD indicator became negative, and sellers’ pressure is increasing. Under such market conditions, it’s better to look for buy positions from the buyers’ initiative zone near the moving average, but after additional confirmation in the form of a buyers’ initiative. Sell positions should be considered from the resistance levels of higher time frames, given there is sellers’ initiative, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 113.79, the uptrend will likely be broken.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2657
Prev Close: 1.2646
% chg. over the last day: -0.09%

Oil prices fell sharply this morning as a rise in coronavirus cases and a new Covid-19 strain raised concerns about the outlook for energy demand ahead of the OPEC+ meeting. The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it fell sharply against the dollar amid the drop in oil.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2646, 1.2598, 1.2571, 1.2483, 1.2416, 1.2388
Resistance levels: 1.2729

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2571 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

26 Nov

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 26.11.2021

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After completing the correctional wave at 1.1228, EURUSD is consolidating below this level. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume trading downwards to reach 1.1180; if to the upside – continue the correction with the target at 1.1257.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is still falling towards 1.3295. Later, the market may start a new correction to reach 1.3350 and then resume trading downwards with the target at 1.3290.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is still consolidating around 74.70. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume trading downwards to reach 74.00; if to the upside – form one more ascending structure with the target at 75.50.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has finished the correctional wave at 114.60. Possibly, the pair may start a new growth with the target at 115.70 and then resume falling to reach 114.50.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After completing the correction at 0.9316, USDCHF is expected to grow and reach 0.9383. Later, the market may start another decline with the target at 0.9315.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

After forming a new consolidation range around 0.7190 and breaking it to the downside, AUDUSD has completed the descending wave at 0.7138. Possibly, today the pair may continue trading downwards with the target at 0.7107.

BRENT

After breaking the consolidation range to the downside, Brent is expected to continue falling towards 78.00. Later, the market may grow to reach 80.00 and then resume trading downwards with the target at 77.40.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has completed the ascending wave at 1800.80. Today, the metal may resume trading downwards to reach 1789.0 and then form one more ascending structure with the target at 1813.30.

S&P 500

After rebounding from 4720.0 to the downside, the S&P index has completed the descending structure at 4652.0; right now, it is consolidating around the latter level. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume trading downwards 4596.6.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

25 Nov

The euro is plunging – and probably won’t bounce back soon

By Keith Pilbeam, City, University of London

The euro has weakened against the US dollar since the beginning of 2021, from around US$1.23 to its current exchange rate of US$1.13. That’s a fall of about 9%, which is significant, especially since these are the two major currencies of the world. The drop has also intensified in November, falling 3% since the turn of a month, which has seen violence in European capitals over COVID restrictions, migrant problems at the Belarus-Poland border and Russian troops amassing on the border of Ukraine.

The decline should be seen in a broader context, though. The euro is still stronger than a couple of years ago, when it was about US$1.10. It also went through some heavy weekly volatility from February to April 2020 in the early part of the COVID pandemic, bouncing between about US$1.07 and US$1.13 at a time when lots of investors were fleeing to the US dollar for safety and there was much uncertainty about what lockdowns would mean.

Euro vs US dollar chart

Explaining currency movements on a weekly or even monthly basis is well known to be extremely difficult, especially when it comes to major economies like the US and the countries in the eurozone. But certainly we need to look at what is happening in both regions and not just one or the other. Using this simple idea, there are several explanations for the recent euro depreciation.

Inflation differences

The first explanation relates to the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) stimulating their economies using quantitative easing (QE), which is essentially creating money to buy financial assets such as government bonds from banks and other major investors. Both central banks have been doing this extensively since the start of the pandemic.

However, with annual inflation in the US now reaching a serious level of 6.2%, compared with a less troublesome 4.1% in the eurozone, the feeling is that the Fed will end its asset purchases sooner. This is because increasing the money supply has the potential to stoke inflation. Indeed, the Fed has recently already started “tapering” or slowing down the rate of QE with a view to stopping it in the second half of 2022. On the other hand, the ECB has been discussing a replacement for its US$2.2 trillion (£1.7 trillion) QE programme when it ends in March 2022.

Connected to this is an increasing expectation that the US may also have to begin a series of rises to interest rates from the middle of 2022 to curb inflation, while ECB president Christine Lagarde has just made it clear that the ECB is unlikely to start raising rates until at least 2023. These emerging differences in the monetary-policy stances of the US and eurozone have clearly favoured a strengthening of the dollar (since QE and lower interest rates tend to make a currency depreciate).

COVID and politics

A second pivotal factor has been the recent relative strength of the US economy in its recovery from the pandemic compared with the eurozone. In 2021, the US is forecast by the International Monetary Fund to grow 6% compared to 5% in the eurozone, while in 2022 they are respectively expected to grow 5.2% and 4.3%. Again, this points to dollar strength.

More COVID lockdowns in the US seem unlikely (even though cases are rising again), though not in the eurozone area, where the rate of infections has been picking up sharply in recent weeks in countries like Germany, France, the Netherlands, Austria and Belgium. Austria is now back in lockdown, and other eurozone countries could follow suit.

A final driver of the recent strength of the dollar is greater political stability. The Biden administration still has three years in office and has recently succeeded in passing its US$1.7 trillion Build Back Better stimulus package.

By contrast, countries in the eurozone face a period of greater political instability. Germany is seeing the 16 years of relative stability under Angela Merkel coming to an end. The question of whether Emmanuel Macron will succeed in the French elections in April 2022 against Marine Le Pen is also weighing on investors’ minds, as are the continued trade frictions between the EU and the UK over Brexit.

It is happening at a time when Russia’s build-up of forces close to Ukraine raises the prospect of military conflict on the edge of Europe – not to mention that Russia has already been limiting the region’s gas supply and one of its main pipelines runs through Ukraine. In addition, there have been significant anti-vaccine protests in France, the Netherlands, Germany and Italy, and European governments are now under intense pressure to bring their spending under control.

So while short-term currency movements are very difficult to predict, there are many reasons to believe that the recent period of euro weakness will continue. This is making imports to the eurozone more expensive – not least energy – and while it has some benefits for a major exporter like Germany, it also undermines the credibility of the eurozone as a global economic force.

The gamechanger might be if the ECB acknowledged that there is an inflation problem that needs to be tackled, by ending its experiment with QE and beginning the process of raising interest rates. That, however, does not look likely any time soon.

About the Author:

Keith Pilbeam, Professor of Economics, City, University of London

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Forex and Currency News Opinions

25 Nov

USDCAD Impulsive Trend Could Weigh On Prices

By Orbex

The formation of the USDCAD currency pair suggests the development of a large correction trend. This takes the form of a standard Ⓐ-Ⓑ-Ⓒ zigzag.

At the end of October, the downward movement of the market ended within the primary correction Ⓑ. This took the form of a bearish double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y) of the intermediate degree. Then we saw an impulsive growth within the primary wave Ⓒ.

Currently, impulse wave (1) and the intermediate correction wave (2) have ended. In the near future, the upward movement of the price in the intermediate sub-waves (3)-(4)-(5) is likely to continue.

The final of the entire primary impulse wave is possible around the level of 1.295. Thus, there is a good chance to make money on purchases, in order to take profit at the end of the wave Ⓒ.

An alternative scenario shows the primary double Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ zigzag is being constructed, with the actionary wave Ⓨ under development.

Wave Ⓨ can take the form of an (A)-(B)-(C) zigzag of the intermediate degree. So far, the first impulse wave (A) has ended. To confirm the alternative, we should see a decline in the currency pair within the intermediate correction (B).

Most likely, if the market goes down, the price will drop to 1.246. At that level, wave (B) will be at 61.8% of wave (A). After that, the final impulse wave (C) could lead the market higher than 1.296.

Article by Orbex

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