Forex and Currency News :: Page 174

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COT Forex Speculators reduce their US Dollar bullish bets to 7-week low

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT currency data was the decline for the US Dollar Index in the currency futures contracts. Dollar Index speculators cut back on their bullish bets this week for the third time in the past four weeks after previously pushing their bullish bets to a 117-week high on January 4th. Since that high-point, bullish bets have fallen by a total of -4,507 contracts and have now dropped the overall standing to a seven-week low. Despite the recent slide, the US Dollar Index bullish bets are still near the top of their range over the past three years with a speculator strength index score of 85.4 percent which is considered extremely bullish (strength index is the current speculator standing compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme). The Dollar Index price has had a volatile couple of weeks with a sharp rise to 97.22 on January 28th and then a sharp drop to 95.23 on February 3rd and closed the week at approximately 95.48.

The currencies with positive changes this week were the Japanese yen (7,633 contracts), Swiss franc (557 contracts), Canadian dollar (5,947 contracts), Russian ruble (10,207 contracts), Bitcoin (175 contracts), Australian dollar (3,444 contracts) and the Mexican peso (1,520 contracts).

The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-2,290 contracts), Euro (-1,844 contracts), British pound sterling (-15,842 contracts), Brazil real (-737 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (-925 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Feb-01-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	56,477	81	34,571	85	-41,884	5	7,313	97
EUR	685,431	78	29,716	44	-57,467	59	27,751	20
GBP	184,007	28	-23,605	57	28,891	47	-5,286	45
JPY	194,435	51	-60,640	30	79,353	76	-18,713	9
CHF	41,054	16	-8,239	56	16,541	49	-8,302	39
CAD	145,082	27	18,264	65	-25,622	39	7,358	44
AUD	196,913	80	-79,829	11	96,098	91	-16,269	13
NZD	58,467	60	-11,698	52	14,019	52	-2,321	25
MXN	141,352	22	730	28	-3,848	71	3,118	56
RUB	46,358	47	14,151	47	-14,451	52	300	43
BRL	76,175	100	-13,353	51	10,467	47	2,886	100
Bitcoin	9,948	51	141	100	-491	0	350	21

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 34,571 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,861 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.7	3.8	16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	78.0	3.3
– Net Position:	34,571	-41,884	7,313
– Gross Longs:	43,897	2,141	9,203
– Gross Shorts:	9,326	44,025	1,890
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.7 to 1	0.0 to 1	4.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.4	5.0	96.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.9	-2.6	22.9

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 29,716 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,844 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,560 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	55.0	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.8	63.4	8.2
– Net Position:	29,716	-57,467	27,751
– Gross Longs:	213,563	376,805	83,675
– Gross Shorts:	183,847	434,272	55,924
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.1	59.5	20.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.2	-11.8	3.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -23,605 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,842 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,763 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.1	68.8	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	53.1	16.4
– Net Position:	-23,605	28,891	-5,286
– Gross Longs:	29,597	126,536	24,845
– Gross Shorts:	53,202	97,645	30,131
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.0	46.8	44.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.6	-25.0	16.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -60,640 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,273 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.5	82.5	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.7	41.7	17.8
– Net Position:	-60,640	79,353	-18,713
– Gross Longs:	14,510	160,358	15,958
– Gross Shorts:	75,150	81,005	34,671
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.7	75.6	9.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	4.1	0.3

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,239 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,796 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	1.7	73.5	24.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	33.2	44.8
– Net Position:	-8,239	16,541	-8,302
– Gross Longs:	698	30,161	10,103
– Gross Shorts:	8,937	13,620	18,405
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.6	49.4	38.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.7	0.7	-4.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 18,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,947 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,317 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.1	39.6	21.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	57.3	16.5
– Net Position:	18,264	-25,622	7,358
– Gross Longs:	52,386	57,524	31,356
– Gross Shorts:	34,122	83,146	23,998
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.4	39.4	44.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.3	-22.9	9.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -79,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,273 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.6	78.8	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.1	30.0	17.5
– Net Position:	-79,829	96,098	-16,269
– Gross Longs:	18,835	155,124	18,128
– Gross Shorts:	98,664	59,026	34,397
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.8	90.6	12.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.5	-1.4	3.4

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -11,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -925 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,773 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.8	61.0	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.9	37.0	8.7
– Net Position:	-11,698	14,019	-2,321
– Gross Longs:	19,205	35,644	2,783
– Gross Shorts:	30,903	21,625	5,104
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.6	52.0	25.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.3	7.9	4.7

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,520 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -790 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.0	57.2	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.5	59.9	2.3
– Net Position:	730	-3,848	3,118
– Gross Longs:	53,767	80,885	6,378
– Gross Shorts:	53,037	84,733	3,260
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.7	71.2	56.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.4	-4.3	20.0

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -13,353 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -737 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,616 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.6	46.3	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.2	32.6	2.2
– Net Position:	-13,353	10,467	2,886
– Gross Longs:	36,293	35,263	4,562
– Gross Shorts:	49,646	24,796	1,676
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.8	47.4	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	4.3	42.4

Russian Ruble Futures:

The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,207 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,944 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.0	41.5	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	72.7	3.7
– Net Position:	14,151	-14,451	300
– Gross Longs:	25,048	19,255	2,024
– Gross Shorts:	10,897	33,706	1,724
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.9	52.4	42.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.1	-10.5	-26.0

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 141 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 175 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.3	3.1	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	78.8	8.0	8.9
– Net Position:	141	-491	350
– Gross Longs:	7,984	304	1,232
– Gross Shorts:	7,843	795	882
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	20.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.4	-43.4	-11.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

04 Feb

USDCNH Minute Zigzag Pressures Prices

By Orbex

The USDCNH currency pair seems to be forming a large horizontal correction wave ④ of the primary degree. This takes the form of an intermediate double three (W)-(X)-(Y).

Perhaps, at the time of writing, we are in the final part of the intermediate intervening wave (X). Only the second half of this wave is visible in the chart. Most likely, the wave (X) takes the form of a triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z.

Wave Z could be a minute ⓐ-ⓑ-ⓒ zigzag. Thus, in the near future, a downward price movement in the impulse minute wave ⓒ is likely.

The market is likely to fall to the 6.275 area. At that level, wave Z will be at 76.4% along the Fibonacci lines of actionary wave Y.

Let’s consider an alternative scenario, as seen above. According to this, the intermediate intervening wave (X) could already be fully complete.

There is a possibility that the intermediate wave (Y) will take the form of a double zigzag W-X-Y, as shown in the chart.

At the time of writing, a minor wave W is being constructed, taking the form of a minute standard zigzag. This could reach the target of 6.529.

Article by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 Feb

Intraday Market Analysis – EUR Rally Accelerates

By Orbex

EURUSD breaks higher

The euro soared as traders bet that persistent inflation could force the ECB to act sooner than later.

A break below the daily support at 1.1300 had put the single currency under pressure. However, a swift rebound above this support-turned-resistance indicates strong commitment from the buy-side.

The pair is rising towards the January peak at 1.1480. The RSI’s triple top in the overbought area may slow the momentum down as intraday buyers take a break. 1.1270 is a key support to keep the rebound relevant.

GBPUSD tests resistance

The pound popped higher after the BOE raised interest rates to 0.5%.

The latest rebound above the resistance at 1.3520 has prompted sellers to cover. Then the rally is accelerating towards 1.3660 which is a major hurdle from the sell-off in late January.

A bullish breakout could turn sentiment in the sterling’s favor and send the price to the previous peak at 1.3740. On the downside, 1.3500 is an important support and its breach could invalidate the recovery despite the bullish catalyst.

CADJPY awaits breakout

The Canadian dollar recovers over growing risk appetite. A fall below the demand zone around 90.60 weighed on sentiment as the loonie struggled to make a higher high.

The pair found support at 89.70 in what used to be a former supply area on the daily chart. The current consolidation is a sign of indecision. 91.10 proves to be a tough resistance to crack.

A bullish breakout could bring the price to the recent peak at 92.00. Failing that, the pair may suffer from another round of sell-off below 89.10.

Article by Orbex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 Feb

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 04.02.2022 (AUDUSD, USDCAD)

Article By RoboForex.com

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The daily chart shows a double test of the long-term 38.2% fibo and an update of the low, as well as convergence on MACD. In this case, the pair is expected to start a new rising correction, which may later be followed by a further downtrend towards 50.0% and 61.8% fibo at 0.6758 and 0.6464 respectively. The resistance is the high at 0.8007.

In the H4 chart, the asset is forming the first correctional wave, which is approaching to test 23.6% fibo at 0.7212 and may later continue up to 38.2% and 50.0% fibo at 0.7364 and 0.7487 respectively. If the price breaks the local support at 0.6967, it may continue the mid-term descending tendency.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the asset is correcting within the rising wave, which earlier tested 61.8% fibo. After the pullback is over, the pair may resume growing towards 76.0% fibo and the high at 1.2840 and 1.2963 respectively. A breakout of the high will result in a further uptrend towards the long-term 38.2% fibo at 1.3023. The support is the low at 1.2450.

The H1 chart shows a more detailed structure of the current short-term correction. After testing 38.2% fibo several times, the descending wave has failed to break it. Possibly, the price may yet fall and complete the pullback at 50.0% fibo. Later, the asset may resume trading upwards to reach the local high at 1.2796.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 Feb

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.02.04

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1302
Prev Close: 1.1438
% chg. over the last day: +1.20%

The ECB left monetary policy unchanged. But it is reported that a possible policy review may occur in March as inflation continues to rise in the region. At the ECB’s press conference, Christine Lagarde said that it is wise not to rule out a rate hike in 2022 as March and June will be crucial for inflation assessment. Investors are betting on a 40 basis point interest rate hike by December, given the ECB’s changed rhetoric.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1414, 1.1329, 1.1275, 1.1254
Resistance levels: 1.1481, 1.1534, 1.1617

From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hour time is bullish. With the ECB starting to think about a rate hike this year, the euro immediately rose. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be looked for after a small pullback because the price has deviated strongly from the average values. Sell trades are better to look for on intraday time frames but with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1254 support level and fixes below, the mid-term uptrend is likely to be broken.

News feed for 2022.02.04:

– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3569
Prev Close: 1.3590
% chg. over the last day: +0.15%

As expected, the Bank of England raised the interest rates by another 0.25%, to 0.5%, to accelerate the slowdown in inflation. The bank will also complete a £20 billion corporate bond sale by the end of 2023. Inflation will remain above 5% until the end of the year. Traders have raised their bets on future increases in borrowing costs, and markets now expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates to at least 1% by May and 1.5% by November.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3583, 1.3524, 1.3457, 1.3434
Resistance levels: 1.3619, 1.3639, 1.3662

On the hourly time frame, the trend on GBP/USD is bullish. The British pound is fundamentally supported by the Bank of England now. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be looked for after a small pullback because the price has deviated strongly from the average values. At the same time, the MACD indicator indicates a divergence. Sell trades are better to look for on intraday time frames but with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3475 support level and consolidates below, the bullish scenario will be broken.

News feed for 2022.02.04:

– UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 114.37
Prev Close: 114.98
% chg. over the last day: +0.53%

The Japanese Yen continues to fall despite the decline in the dollar index. The monetary policy of the Bank of Japan is now aimed at making the JPY cheaper because of the maximum stimulus, while the Fed is tightening monetary policy. The Japanese yen can get a boost only in 2 cases. The first is if the Bank of Japan tightens its monetary policy. The second one is that investors will buy the yen as a safe-haven asset in case of various panic moods in the financial markets like it happened earlier this year.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 114.59, 115.37, 115.73
Resistance levels: 114.98, 114.37, 113.99

The global trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The price failed to break through the priority change level. The buyers were able to protect their interests. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy deals on the lower time frames from the support level of 114.59. Sell potions can be looked for at the nearest resistance levels, but only with additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price fixes below 114.37, the uptrend will likely be broken.

News feed for 2022.02.04:

– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2665
Prev Close: 1.2675
% chg. over the last day: +0.08%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it depends not only on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada but also on oil prices and the dollar index. Yesterday, Brent crude oil reached $91 a barrel for the first time since October 2014, as cold weather engulfed large parts of the US, threatening further oil supply disruptions. As recovering demand outpaces supply, oil markets become increasingly vulnerable to supply shocks. The Canadian dollar has strengthened in recent days due to rising oil prices and a declining dollar index. But now the situation is becoming less clear, so USD/CAD is trading in a flat.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2649, 1.2613, 1.2586, 1.2506
Resistance levels: 1.2729, 1.2792

From a technical point of view, the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price is trading in a flat near the moving average. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower time frames from the support levels of 1.2649. There are no optimal entry points to sell deals now.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2613 support level and fixes below, the downtrend is likely to resume.

News feed for 2022.02.04:

– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 Feb

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 04.02.2022 (EURUSD, USDCAD, NZDUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is trading at 1.1455; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 1.1385 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.1615. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.1150. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.1065. To confirm further growth, the asset must break the resistance level and fix above 1.1500.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is trading at 1.2684; the instrument is moving inside Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a sideways tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1.2625 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.2945. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the support level. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.2575. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.2480. To confirm further growth, the asset must break the descending channel’s upside border and fix above 1.2895.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD is trading at 0.6667; the instrument is moving inside Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a sideways tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 0.6685 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6485. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6705. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6805. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the bullish channel’s downside border and fix below 0.6620.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 Feb

The Bank of England continues to raise rates. ECB may raise the interest rate by the end of 2022

by JustForex

The US stock indices ended Thursday’s trading with a decline. The Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 1.45%, the S&P 500 (US500) fell by 2.44%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) lost 3.74% at the close of the stock market. The disappointing results and an unclear outlook for Meta Platforms (Facebook) dampened market sentiment and left investors worried about other tech companies. But after the market closed, futures on indices jumped sharply on Amazon’s report. The company increased its net income for 2021 by 57%. Amazon shares jumped 14.3% and returned some optimism to investors.

Data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that the US Non-Manufacturing Services Business Activity Index fell to 59.9 points in January 2022 from its December level of 62.3. Experts’ consensus forecast was for a stronger drop to 59.5 points. The initial jobless claims in the USA were 238,000 (the forecast was 245,000, the previous 260,000). The US economy shows the recovery, with inflation expectations declining against the background of the upcoming rate hike by the Fed. The US non-farm payrolls report will be released today, so traders should be cautious as volatility will increase. December’s data was disappointing, showing only 199,000 new jobs. Analysts expect January’s figure to be even lower at 110,000 jobs. But if the data turns out to be better than forecast, this will significantly boost the stock market.

European stock markets closed in the red zone yesterday. The statement of the European Central Bank was negative for the markets. The ECB left monetary policy unchanged. But it is reported that a possible policy review may occur in March as inflation continues to rise in the region. At the ECB’s press conference, Christine Lagarde said it is wise not to rule out a rate hike in 2022, as March and June will be crucial for inflation assessments. Considering that the ECB has changed its rhetoric, investors are betting on a 40 basis point interest rate hike by December. The European currency increased sharply on the back of such statements, and major European stock indices went down.

German DAX (DE30) decreased by 1.6%, French CAC 40 (FR40) lost 1.5%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.3%. As expected, the Bank of England raised the interest rate by another 0.25% to 0.5% to accelerate the slowdown in inflation. The bank will also complete a £20 billion corporate bond sale by the end of 2023. Inflation will remain above 5% until the end of the year. Traders have increased their bets on future borrowing cost increases, and markets now expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates to at least 1% by May and 1.5% by November. On that news, the British pound gained support, while British FTSE 100 (UK100) decreased by 0.63% by the end of the day.

The price of Brent crude oil reached $91 per barrel for the first time since October 2014. “WTI oil jumped above the $90 level after an Arctic storm reached Texas and disrupted oil production in the Permian Basin,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA. Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East also drive up oil prices. However, in the medium term, some analysts expect a surplus in the oil market as early as next quarter, which will help to slow the recent surge in prices.

Gold now behaves inadequately. On the one hand, the US Federal Reserve System is getting ready to raise the rates, which will lead to the growth of the dollar index and government bond yields and reduction of gold and silver prices. On the other hand, the ECB has hinted that it may change its dovish stance and raise interest rates by the end of 2022. In Britain, the Bank of England raised interest rates. On the third side, investors bought gold as a hedge against inflation, but inflation expectations have already started to decline amid more decisive actions of central banks. It is quite difficult to predict how gold and silver will behave in such a situation, but most analysts are still inclined to believe that gold will have a downward trend this year.

After the stock market closed, Asia-Pacific (APAC) stock markets rose in trading Friday after a sharp rebound in US futures on indices. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained by 0.73% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) added 0.6%. Consumer prices (inflation rate) in South Korea in January 2022 was 3.6% in annual terms. Thus, the growth rate slowed down from 3.7% in the previous month, although analysts had expected a decrease to 3.3%. South Korea’s Kospi index jumped by 1.57% in today’s trading.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,477.44 −111.94 (−2.44%)

Dow Jones (US30) 35,111.16 −518.17 (−1.45%)

DAX (DE40) 15,368.47 −245.30 (−1.57%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,528.84 −54.16 (−0.71%)

USD Index 95.34 −0.59 (−0.62%)

Important events for today:

– Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

by JustForex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

03 Feb

NZDUSD Is The Cycle Correction Wave B Completed?

By Orbex

The current formation of the NZDUSD currency pair hints at a cycle zigzag pattern, which consists of three main sub-waves a-b-c.

On the current chart, we see the second half of a major correction wave b of the cycle degree. It looks fully completed, taking the form of a primary triple zigzag Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ-Ⓧ-Ⓩ.

After the completion of the correction pattern, the market turned around, and we saw the development of the initial part of the cycle wave c. This wave is likely to take the form of a simple 5-wave impulse, as shown in the chart, consisting of five primary sub-waves ①-②-③-④-⑤.

Sub-waves ①-② have ended, and now the formation of the impulse ③ has begun. This is likely to end at the previous maximum of 0.722.

Alternatively, the formation of a correction wave b of the cycle degree can be continued. Perhaps the primary wave Ⓩ will not be a double, but a triple zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y)-(X)-(Z) of the intermediate degree.

We see that the first four parts of the intermediate pattern have ended. Now the price could soon begin to decline in the final intermediate wave (Z).

The wave (Z) can take the form of a minor double zigzag W-X-Y, as shown in the chart near 0.640.

At that level, primary wave Ⓩ will be at 161.8% of primary wave Ⓨ.

Article by Orbex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

03 Feb

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Stabilizes

By Orbex

XAUUSD attempts to bounce

The bullions bounce higher as the US dollar softens across the board. Gold is looking to claw back losses from the liquidation in late January.

A close above the psychological level of 1800 would be the first step, pushing short-term sellers into covering their bets. The previous support at 1817 coincides with the 30-day moving average, making it an area of interest and important resistance.

A bullish breakout may send the metal to the previous high at 1847. On the downside, 1780 is a fresh support.

SPX 500 tests resistance

The S&P 500 rallies over better-than-expected corporate earnings. A break above 4490 has eased the selling pressure on the index.

The former daily support at 4600 is now a key resistance that lies over the 30-day moving average. A close above this congestion area could turn sentiment around, paving the way for a recovery towards 4750.

The RSI’s overbought situation may keep the momentum in check temporarily. A pullback may see buying interest in the demand zone between 4410 and 4490.

USOIL consolidates gains

WTI crude continues to climb as OPEC+ refuses to raise its output limit. The RSI inched into the overbought territory on the daily chart after a new high above 85.00.

The bulls could be wary of chasing after the extended rally. 85.00 has turned into a support and a pullback could be an opportunity to accumulate again.

Further down, 82.00 on the 30-day moving average is a major floor for the current rally. The milestone at 90.00 would be the next target when momentum makes its return.

Article by Orbex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

03 Feb

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 03.02.2022 (Brent, Dow Jones)

Article By RoboForex.com

Brent

As we can see in the H4 chart, after breaking the high at 86.63 and fixing above it, Brent has stopped at 91.43. At first, the asset intended to reach the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 94.53 and 99.41 respectively, but the above-mentioned level turned into strong resistance. Both this resistance and divergence on MACD are a signal in favour of a new pullback towards the local support at 69.26, a breakout of which will lead to the key one at 65.89.

The H1 chart shows the downside correctional targets – 23.6%, 38.2%, and 50.0% fibo at 86.20, 82.94, and 80.34 respectively. A breakout of the resistance will result on a further uptrend.

Dow Jones

As we can see in the daily chart, after completing the first bearish wave, the asset is correcting upwards. As long as the price is trading below the high at 36971.0, the long-term downtrend may continue. The key downside targets are 23.6%, 38.2%, and 50.0% fibo at 32536.0, 29797.0, and 27590.0 respectively.

The H4 chart shows that the correctional uptrend has broken 61.8% fibo; right now, it is heading towards 76.0% fibo at 36050.0. After testing the target level, the index may reverse and fall to reach the support at 33138.0.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

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