COT Currency Speculator Sentiment rising for Euro & British Pound Sterling

January 22, 2022

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT currency data is the trend changes in speculator sentiment we are seeing in the Euro and the British pound sterling. Speculators have been boosting their bets for the Euro and pound sterling over the past weeks and have now pushed their bets in both currencies to their best levels since September.

Euro positions have gained for five consecutive weeks (a 5-week total rise of +36,463 contracts) and have now been in bullish territory for two straight weeks after spending thirteen out of the past fourteen weeks in bearish territory. This week’s net position of +24,584 contracts marks the best position since September 14th when positions were in a downtrend and on their way into negative territory.

British pound speculator bets, meanwhile, have risen sharply with four straight weeks of gains (a 4-week rise by +57,439 contracts) and have now settled into a current position of just -247 net contracts. The net position had been at a multi-year bearish high of -57,686 contracts as recently as December 21st before a turnaround in sentiment.


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Joining the Euro (18,579 contracts) and British pound sterling (28,919 contracts) with positive changes this week were the yen (6,646 contracts), New Zealand dollar (273 contracts), Canadian dollar (14,868 contracts), Australian dollar (3,032 contracts) and the Mexican peso (9,371 contracts).

The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-1,458 contracts), Brazil real (-557 contracts), Swiss franc (-3,150 contracts), Russian ruble (-3,195 contracts) and Bitcoin (-172 contracts)


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jan-18-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
USD Index 53,283 74 36,434 89 -42,397 4 5,963 82
EUR 691,882 80 24,584 43 -50,464 61 25,880 17
GBP 183,234 28 -247 74 2,848 31 -2,601 50
JPY 201,820 56 -80,879 17 99,740 86 -18,861 9
CHF 39,871 14 -10,810 51 13,799 46 -2,989 54
CAD 143,371 26 7,492 58 -13,723 47 6,231 42
AUD 181,136 68 -88,454 3 98,519 92 -10,065 28
NZD 44,727 33 -8,331 57 10,622 47 -2,291 26
MXN 151,778 27 4,920 29 -7,490 70 2,570 54
RUB 45,413 46 6,422 29 -7,251 69 829 57
BRL 32,098 30 -11,369 53 10,759 48 610 74
Bitcoin 11,468 62 -549 91 -22 0 571 26

 


US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 36,434 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,892 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 79.5 3.2 15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.1 82.7 4.2
– Net Position: 36,434 -42,397 5,963
– Gross Longs: 42,369 1,684 8,180
– Gross Shorts: 5,935 44,081 2,217
– Long to Short Ratio: 7.1 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.6 4.1 81.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.7 -3.6 6.8

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 18,579 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,005 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.6 56.3 11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.1 63.6 7.8
– Net Position: 24,584 -50,464 25,880
– Gross Longs: 211,901 389,617 79,656
– Gross Shorts: 187,317 440,081 53,776
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.5 61.5 17.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.1 -8.6 -4.3

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -247 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 28,919 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,166 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.7 62.5 14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.8 60.9 15.8
– Net Position: -247 2,848 -2,601
– Gross Longs: 39,760 114,486 26,267
– Gross Shorts: 40,007 111,638 28,868
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 73.8 31.4 50.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 27.4 -30.6 28.5

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -80,879 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,646 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -87,525 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.0 86.1 8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.0 36.6 18.0
– Net Position: -80,879 99,740 -18,861
– Gross Longs: 8,002 173,701 17,475
– Gross Shorts: 88,881 73,961 36,336
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.9 85.7 9.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.3 9.5 -3.1

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -10,810 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,150 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 2.3 67.3 30.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.4 32.7 37.5
– Net Position: -10,810 13,799 -2,989
– Gross Longs: 925 26,828 11,951
– Gross Shorts: 11,735 13,029 14,940
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.1 46.4 54.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.2 -7.4 15.5

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 7,492 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 14,868 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,376 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.7 41.1 21.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.5 50.7 17.5
– Net Position: 7,492 -13,723 6,231
– Gross Longs: 49,792 58,921 31,270
– Gross Shorts: 42,300 72,644 25,039
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 57.9 46.9 42.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.3 -13.5 6.0

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -88,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,032 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -91,486 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.0 82.2 10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 53.8 27.9 16.1
– Net Position: -88,454 98,519 -10,065
– Gross Longs: 9,051 148,978 19,008
– Gross Shorts: 97,505 50,459 29,073
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 3.0 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.8 92.4 27.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.2 -0.3 17.1

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -8,331 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 273 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,604 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.0 66.8 6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.6 43.0 11.5
– Net Position: -8,331 10,622 -2,291
– Gross Longs: 11,612 29,876 2,851
– Gross Shorts: 19,943 19,254 5,142
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 57.3 46.8 25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -31.9 30.0 -5.2

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 4,920 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,371 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,451 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 49.7 46.1 3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.5 51.0 2.2
– Net Position: 4,920 -7,490 2,570
– Gross Longs: 75,461 69,942 5,901
– Gross Shorts: 70,541 77,432 3,331
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.4 69.7 53.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 29.4 -30.3 15.6

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of -11,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,812 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.1 56.6 8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 69.6 23.1 7.0
– Net Position: -11,369 10,759 610
– Gross Longs: 10,958 18,179 2,841
– Gross Shorts: 22,327 7,420 2,231
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 2.5 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.4 47.8 74.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.7 6.6 9.9

 


Russian Ruble Futures:

Russian Ruble Futures COT ChartThe Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,422 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,617 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.3 60.0 4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.2 75.9 2.8
– Net Position: 6,422 -7,251 829
– Gross Longs: 16,034 27,233 2,101
– Gross Shorts: 9,612 34,484 1,272
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.6 68.9 57.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.5 19.1 -25.4

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -549 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -172 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -377 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 73.4 3.1 12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 78.2 3.3 7.3
– Net Position: -549 -22 571
– Gross Longs: 8,417 355 1,407
– Gross Shorts: 8,966 377 836
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.9 28.5 25.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.4 -13.2 -5.0

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.