Forex and Currency News

Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 17

GBP/USD in a Strong Position: Sterling Rallies on Trade News and Robust Data

The GBP/USD pair surged to 1.3569 on Tuesday, reaching its highest level since February 2022, as the pound capitalised on positive trade developments and strong economic indicators.

Key factors driving GBP/USD movement

The pound’s rally stems from improved market sentiment following US President Donald Trump’s decision to postpone the imposition of 50% tariffs on EU imports until 9 July. Initially set to take effect on 1 June, the delay has granted diplomats additional time to pursue constructive dialogue and negotiate potential compromises.

This reprieve has boosted global risk appetite, providing further support for the pound, which also drew strength from robust domestic economic data.

UK retail sales rose by 1.2% in April, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase. These figures underscore the resilience of consumers despite ongoing tax hikes and trade tensions.

Meanwhile, inflation remains elevated at 3.5%, exceeding forecasts and raising some concerns.

The base-case scenario suggests the Bank of England is likely to cut interest rates by 50 basis points by August, with a further reduction possible before the end of the year.

Technical analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD has formed a consolidation range below the 1.3590 level. Today, the pair broke downward out of this range, signalling the likely start of a bearish wave towards 1.3360. A breach of this level could extend the downtrend towards 1.3140, with 1.3360 as the initial target. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line has exited the histogram area and is trending sharply downward.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD previously consolidated around 1.3490 before breaking upward and nearly exhausting its bullish potential at 1.3590. Today, the pair formed a new consolidation range below 1.3590 before breaking downward again. We now anticipate a continuation of the bearish movement towards 1.3360. This outlook is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line remains below 50 and is descending sharply towards 20.

Conclusion

The pound’s recent gains reflect a combination of improved risk sentiment and strong UK economic data. However, persistent inflation and expectations of BoE rate cuts introduce downside risks. Technically, GBP/USD shows bearish momentum, with key support levels at 1.3360 and 1.3140 in focus.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

26 May

Speculator Bets led lower by Canadian Dollar & Brazilian Real, USD Index Bets edge up

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 20th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower overall by Canadian Dollar & Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were decisively lower this week as just one out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other ten markets had lower speculator contracts.

The currency with a gain this week was the US Dollar Index that showed a small rise of 69 contracts on the week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-21,705 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-17,226 contracts), the EuroFX (-10,321 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-9,731 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-4,938 contracts), British Pound (-3,223 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-3,174 contracts), Bitcoin (-1,125 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,040 contracts) and with the Swiss Franc (-698 contracts) seeing lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculator Position Roundup:

The latest data (through Tuesday May 20th) showed that all currency speculator positions pulled back, except for the US Dollar Index. However, the US Dollar Index only had a small rise and actually remains in a very small net speculator bearish position of -546 contracts as of Tuesday.

Overall, most currencies’ speculator positions remain in a bullish state against the US Dollar, including the Japanese Yen, which is not too far off its all-time record high that has was reached recently on April 29th at +179,212 contracts. The Euro is currently at approximately +75,000 contracts and has been in an overall bullish position for the past 11 weeks. The British Pound has also been in a bullish position for 13 straight weeks and is around +24,000 contracts at the moment.

The Mexican Peso has been mostly bullish since 2023 and is currently at approximately +62,000 contracts, which is above its average for 2025 (of around +34,000 weekly contracts). In comparison, the Mexican Peso contracts averaged +68,482 weekly contracts over the whole of 2024 which included a 15-week streak of over +100,000 contracts from March of 2024 to June 2024.

The Brazilian Real recently hit an all-time high and remains bullish for a 16th consecutive week at over +26,000 contracts.

The only speculator positions with negative positions right now against the US Dollar are the Swiss Franc, the New Zealand Dollar, the Australian Dollar, the Canadian Dollar and Bitcoin.

Euro Speculator Bets

The Euro speculator bets dipped this week by over 10,000 contracts for its largest pullback since early April. However, this speculator contract has been on the rise strongly since February, with gains in 10 out of the last 14 weeks. The 14-week rise has been over a total +138,000 contracts to bring the Euro position from a -64,425 contract position on February 11th to this week’s total of +74,453 contracts.

Bitcoin Speculator Contracts

The Bitcoin speculator positions have been in overall bearish territory for the last five weeks. Bitcoin contracts seem to be behaving similarly to some of the stock market contracts, which exhibit the behavior of hedging among the speculators. As the Bitcoin price has been going up, the contracts speculators have been going more bearish and vice versa. The Bitcoin price has been rising rapidly lately and reaching all-time record high prices despite the bearish speculator bets.

Exchange Rate Market

The US Dollar Index fell sharply on the week and closed under the significant 100 level, ending the week around the 99.30 level.

The Euro, the Pound, the Yen, the Swiss Franc, the Canadian Dollar, the Australian Dollar, and the New Zealand Dollar, despite the fall in speculator contracts, all had positive weeks against the US Dollar in the exchange rate markets.

Last week, the Mexican Peso was up for the third time in the last four weeks, while the Brazilian Real also squeaked out a positive week.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (97 percent) and the Brazilian Real (66 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (61 percent), EuroFX (57 percent) and the Swiss Franc (53 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (6 percent) and the Bitcoin (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (34 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (37 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (5.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (5.4 percent)
EuroFX (57.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (61.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (45.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (46.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (96.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (98.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (52.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (54.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (41.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (51.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (34.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (41.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (37.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (38.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (60.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (62.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (65.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (79.9 percent)
Bitcoin (8.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (33.3 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & Swiss Franc top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (18 percent) and the Swiss Franc (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Mexican Peso (12 percent), the Canadian Dollar (7 percent) and the EuroFX (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Bitcoin (-72 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-15 percent), US Dollar Index (-7 percent) and the Australian Dollar (3 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-7.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-15.9 percent)
EuroFX (5.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (12.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (3.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-3.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (5.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (13.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (13.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (39.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (6.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (21.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (3.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (18.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (17.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (25.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (12.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (7.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (-15.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (5.3 percent)
Bitcoin (-71.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-28.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -546 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 69 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -615 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.2	27.7	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.1	21.5	11.8
– Net Position:	-546	1,870	-1,324
– Gross Longs:	17,583	8,369	2,252
– Gross Shorts:	18,129	6,499	3,576
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.6	97.8	12.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.2	8.8	-13.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 74,453 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,774 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.1	55.8	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	72.5	5.5
– Net Position:	74,453	-126,830	52,377
– Gross Longs:	206,042	423,456	94,072
– Gross Shorts:	131,589	550,286	41,695
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.1	38.0	89.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.5	-12.4	48.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 23,993 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,223 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,216 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.1	29.5	17.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.8	46.8	12.0
– Net Position:	23,993	-33,817	9,824
– Gross Longs:	88,144	57,675	33,168
– Gross Shorts:	64,151	91,492	23,344
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.4	49.9	82.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	-7.5	23.8

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 167,330 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,938 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 172,268 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.0	27.8	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.4	77.2	6.8
– Net Position:	167,330	-181,021	13,691
– Gross Longs:	194,510	102,102	38,497
– Gross Shorts:	27,180	283,123	24,806
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.2 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.7	5.3	76.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.6	-4.9	-2.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -23,767 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -698 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,069 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.4	70.9	18.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.9	36.3	20.6
– Net Position:	-23,767	25,298	-1,531
– Gross Longs:	7,632	51,871	13,558
– Gross Shorts:	31,399	26,573	15,089
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.7	40.8	72.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.2	-20.4	25.4

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -103,861 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -82,156 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	81.3	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.4	38.9	11.7
– Net Position:	-103,861	112,982	-9,121
– Gross Longs:	22,629	216,736	22,213
– Gross Shorts:	126,490	103,754	31,334
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.4	61.5	17.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.9	-7.0	3.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -59,077 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,731 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,346 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	68.2	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.0	34.7	11.9
– Net Position:	-59,077	59,536	-459
– Gross Longs:	20,997	121,279	20,781
– Gross Shorts:	80,074	61,743	21,240
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.4	65.4	47.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-6.4	17.0

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -23,652 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,040 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,612 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.3	76.3	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.1	36.6	6.9
– Net Position:	-23,652	24,260	-608
– Gross Longs:	9,981	46,591	3,626
– Gross Shorts:	33,633	22,331	4,234
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	61.4	45.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.9	-19.1	19.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 62,532 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,174 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,706 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.2	29.3	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	76.0	3.0
– Net Position:	62,532	-64,062	1,530
– Gross Longs:	89,323	40,078	5,579
– Gross Shorts:	26,791	104,140	4,049
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.6	41.3	31.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.0	-14.3	24.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 26,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -17,226 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,515 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.3	31.4	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.6	70.9	1.3
– Net Position:	26,289	-36,167	9,878
– Gross Longs:	51,552	28,734	11,113
– Gross Shorts:	25,263	64,901	1,235
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	9.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.9	27.6	76.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.3	8.3	48.1

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,952 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,125 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -827 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	75.4	6.6	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	81.5	1.3	3.8
– Net Position:	-1,952	1,692	260
– Gross Longs:	24,142	2,121	1,466
– Gross Shorts:	26,094	429	1,206
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	4.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.7	100.0	50.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-71.7	61.1	36.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

23 May

EUR/USD Could Climb as Dollar Faces Mounting Risks

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The euro has regained strength against the dollar, with EUR/USD holding steady at 1.1312 on Friday.

Key drivers behind EUR/USD’s movement

The US dollar remains vulnerable as investor concerns over the US fiscal outlook persist. President Donald Trump’s proposed budget bill – featuring tax cuts and heightened defence spending – has stoked fears of surging national debt.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the bill could inflate the US national debt by nearly $4 trillion, raising alarms over long-term fiscal stability.

Further pressuring the dollar, Moody’s recently downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing widening budget deficits and rising debt-servicing costs.

Meanwhile, investor appetite for US assets has waned amid sluggish progress in trade negotiations.

Although this week saw limited high-impact US data releases, the market has welcomed the brief lull. Today, traders will focus on April’s new home sales report for fresh directional cues.

Technical analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

EUR/USD dipped to 1.1255 before correcting to 1.1311, with a consolidation range nearing completion. We anticipate a downward expansion towards 1.1120, supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line has exited the histogram zone and points decisively downward.

H1 Chart:

The pair is forming a downward impulse structure, followed by a correction to 1.1311. Today, a renewed decline towards 1.1240 appears likely. A break below this level could extend the downtrend to 1.1170. This scenario is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line hovering above 80, poised to drop towards 20.

Conclusion

With the dollar weighed down by fiscal concerns and a credit rating downgrade, EUR/USD may extend its gains. Traders should monitor today’s US housing data for further momentum.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

22 May

Sterling Strengthens Weak US Dollar and UK Inflation Provide Support

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair continues its upward trajectory, reaching 1.3429 by Thursday. It is now trading just below yesterday’s peak, its highest level since February 2022.

Key drivers behind GBP/USD’s rise

The rally follows the release of stronger-than-expected UK inflation data. The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated to 3.5% in April, the highest reading since January 2024, exceeding both market forecasts (3.3%) and the Bank of England’s projection (3.4%). Contributing factors included:

An increase in Ofgem’s energy price cap
Higher vehicle tax rates

Notably, services sector inflation surged from 4.7% to 5.4%, signalling persistent underlying price pressures.

Market expectations for monetary policy easing have adjusted significantly. Investors now anticipate just one 25-basis-point rate cut by the end of 2025. The likelihood of a rate cut in August has fallen from 60% to 40%.

The Bank of England reduced interest rates by 25 basis points in May, although policymakers were divided on the decision.

Technical analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

The GBP/USD pair completed an upward wave, peaking at 1.3466
Today, we expect consolidation below this level
A downward breakout could initiate a decline towards 1.3131, with 1.3300 acting as the first target
The MACD indicator supports this view, with its signal line exiting the histogram zone and trending lower

H1 Chart:

The pair reached 1.3466 before correcting to 1.3388, establishing a consolidation range
A downward breakout today could see a move towards 1.3300
The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and pointing decisively downward towards 20

Conclusion

Sterling’s strength persists amid weaker US dollar dynamics and persistent UK inflation. While technical indicators suggest a potential pullback, the broader trend remains influenced by monetary policy expectations and economic data.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

20 May

Euro Rises as US Dollar Comes Under Pressure Amid Budget Deficit Concerns

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair climbed to 1.1243 on Tuesday, marking another attempt to break free from the narrow trading range it has occupied for over a week. This latest upward movement could prove more decisive than previous efforts.

Key drivers affecting EUR/USD

The US dollar came under sustained pressure in the previous session, driven by growing concerns over the widening US debt and budget deficit. These fears were exacerbated by a warning from Moody’s of a potential downgrade to the US credit rating.

Fiscal risks intensified following the House Budget Committee’s approval of President Donald Trump’s fiscal bill, which could add trillions of dollars to the deficit over the next decade. Despite criticism, the administration maintains that tax cuts will spur economic growth, boost revenues, and ultimately reduce the deficit.

Meanwhile, Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, reiterated expectations of a single rate cut this year, citing ongoing uncertainty arising from trade tariffs.

Today, market attention turns to the Eurozone’s preliminary consumer confidence index for May. No major US economic releases are scheduled.

Technical analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

The EUR/USD pair continues to consolidate around 1.1212, with the potential for an upward move towards 1.1300 (testing from below). The current uptrend is a corrective phase following the most recent decline. Once this correction concludes, a new downward wave may emerge, targeting 1.1029 as the initial objective. This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line remaining above zero and trending upwards.

H1 Chart:

The pair is forming a fifth-wave structure within the correction towards 1.1300. Traders should monitor whether this level is reached today. A resumption of the downtrend may follow, with 1.1166 as the next key level. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and ascending towards 80.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD pair’s latest rally reflects dollar weakness prompted by fiscal concerns, while technical indicators suggest a potential reversal once the current correction has played out. With no major US releases, traders will look to Eurozone sentiment for further direction.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

19 May

Japanese Yen Strengthens as US Dollar Weakens Following Credit Downgrade

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair declined for a fifth consecutive day, touching 145.25, as the US dollar faced sustained pressure following Moody’s decision to downgrade the US credit rating.

Key drivers affecting USD/JPY

On Friday, Moody’s cut the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing a deteriorating fiscal outlook and a lack of “effective measures” to curb the widening budget deficit.

Meanwhile, domestic data revealed that Japan’s economy contracted in Q1 2025, shrinking by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year, falling short of expectations in both cases. This marks the first economic contraction of the year, driven primarily by a decline in exports.

Investors are now closely monitoring Japan’s trade figures, particularly as the potential impact of new US tariffs looms.

In a recent statement, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stressed that Japan would not accept an unconditional preliminary trade deal, especially concerning automobiles. The country remains wary of a potential 25% US tariff on Japanese car imports. While Japanese diplomats are keen to finalise a trade agreement with the US swiftly, they acknowledge that the outcome is not entirely within their control.

Technical analysis: USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY has corrected to 146.04, with the fifth wave of decline now in motion. The immediate downside target is 143.50, with further downward momentum expected today. Once this target is achieved, a potential rebound towards 146.04 may follow. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains below zero and points firmly downward.

On the H1 chart, the pair consolidated around 146.04 before breaking downward. The current focus is on completing the fifth decline wave towards 143.50. So far, the pair has reached 144.80, followed by a minor correction to 145.30. The next expected move is a further drop to 144.15, with an eventual extension towards 143.50. This outlook is reinforced by the Stochastic oscillator, where the signal line has dipped below 80 and is trending sharply downward towards 20.

Conclusion

The US dollar’s weakness, exacerbated by Moody’s downgrade, continues to drive USD/JPY lower, while Japan’s economic contraction adds further complexity. Traders should monitor trade developments and technical levels for near-term direction.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

18 May

Euro Speculator Bets hit 2024 High as Brazilian Real Bets Rebound, CAD Bets Decline

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 13th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real & EuroFX

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (18,554 contracts) with the EuroFX (9,055 contracts), Bitcoin (954 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (523 contracts), the Swiss Franc (505 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (493 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-11,511 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-4,591 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-2,849 contracts), the British Pound (-2,019 contracts) and the Australian Dollar (-974 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Futures Data Highlights: Euro hits 2024 high

This week’s notable changes in the Currency Speculator positions included the Euro rising to a new yearly high, the Brazilian Real rebounding from last week’s sharp decline, and the Canadian Dollar posting the largest decrease this week in the speculator bets.

Euro Speculator Position:
– The Euro speculator bet rose by over +9,000 contracts this week.
– The Euro speculator position has risen in 4 out of the past 6 weeks and in 10 out of the last 13 weeks.
– Over the last 13 weeks, approximately +150,000 contracts have been added to the Euro speculator position.
– The overall standing has increased from approximately -64,000 contracts in February to a +84,774 contracts this week.
– This brings the Euro contract position to its highest level since September 2024, a span of 36 weeks.

Brazilian Real Speculator Position:
– The Brazilian Real jumped this week with a gain of over +18,000 speculator positions, rebounding from last week’s -43,377 contract decline.
– The Brazilian Real contract positions have risen in 5 out of the past 6 weeks and maintains a bullish net position of over +43,000 contracts this week.

Other Major Currencies:
– Speculator positions for the Australian Dollar, the Swiss Franc, the U.S. Dollar Index, the New Zealand Dollar, and Bitcoin all saw changes of less than 1,000 contracts on the week.
– The Japanese Yen saw an approximate -4,500 contract fall from its overall net position but maintains a highly bullish position slightly off the all-time highs of 2 weeks ago.
– The Canadian Dollar saw the most bearish change of the week with a decline of over 11,000 contracts, likely weighed down by falling oil prices and speculation that the Canadian government could reduce interest rates.

U.S. Dollar Index:
– The U.S. Dollar Index currently has a speculator’s net standing of -615 contracts, which amounts to an overall neutral position after a small gain this week.
– The U.S. Dollar Index price has risen slightly for the past 4 weeks in a row and ended the week just below the 101.00 exchange level.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (98 percent) and the Brazilian Real (80 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (62 percent), the EuroFX (61 percent) and the Swiss Franc (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Bitcoin (33 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (38 percent) and the Australian Dollar (41 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (5.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (4.4 percent)
EuroFX (61.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (57.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (48.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (49.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (98.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (99.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (54.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (53.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (51.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (56.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (41.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (42.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (38.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (37.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (62.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (63.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (79.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (64.8 percent)
Bitcoin (33.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (12.4 percent)

Swiss Franc & New Zealand Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Swiss Franc (40 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (26 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (21 percent), the Australian Dollar (19 percent) and the Japanese Yen (14 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

Bitcoin (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Dollar Index (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-15.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-17.8 percent)
EuroFX (12.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (3.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-3.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-6.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (13.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (14.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (39.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (28.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (21.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (26.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (18.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (20.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (25.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (21.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (7.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (4.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (5.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-12.5 percent)
Bitcoin (-28.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-64.6 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -615 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 493 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,108 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.5	27.4	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.7	23.6	11.8
– Net Position:	-615	1,067	-452
– Gross Longs:	15,539	7,680	2,849
– Gross Shorts:	16,154	6,613	3,301
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.4	96.2	24.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.9	14.7	2.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 84,774 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,055 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,719 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	54.2	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	72.0	6.0
– Net Position:	84,774	-134,282	49,508
– Gross Longs:	209,549	406,660	94,529
– Gross Shorts:	124,775	540,942	45,021
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.0	35.5	83.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.5	-17.5	41.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 27,216 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,019 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,235 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.0	28.7	16.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.0	45.1	14.3
– Net Position:	27,216	-32,059	4,843
– Gross Longs:	89,540	55,836	32,765
– Gross Shorts:	62,324	87,895	27,922
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.3	48.6	72.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	2.7	1.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 172,268 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,591 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 176,859 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.0	28.1	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.1	79.6	7.6
– Net Position:	172,268	-184,891	12,623
– Gross Longs:	194,226	101,140	40,015
– Gross Shorts:	21,958	286,031	27,392
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.1	4.3	74.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.9	-11.7	-9.5

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -23,069 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 505 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,574 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	69.8	19.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.7	38.3	19.8
– Net Position:	-23,069	22,999	70
– Gross Longs:	7,443	51,006	14,560
– Gross Shorts:	30,512	28,007	14,490
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.1	37.0	79.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	39.9	-43.6	30.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -82,156 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,511 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,645 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	81.0	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.1	46.0	11.8
– Net Position:	-82,156	91,895	-9,739
– Gross Longs:	23,250	212,802	21,276
– Gross Shorts:	105,406	120,907	31,015
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.1	52.6	16.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.4	-21.8	10.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -49,346 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,372 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.1	66.5	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.5	38.3	12.6
– Net Position:	-49,346	50,883	-1,537
– Gross Longs:	25,507	119,964	21,268
– Gross Shorts:	74,853	69,081	22,805
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.3	60.3	45.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.8	-16.8	4.6

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -22,612 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 523 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,135 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.8	74.6	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.0	38.2	6.3
– Net Position:	-22,612	22,116	496
– Gross Longs:	10,207	45,320	4,303
– Gross Shorts:	32,819	23,204	3,807
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.3	59.0	59.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.9	-27.8	29.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 65,706 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,849 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,555 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.9	26.7	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	78.2	2.4
– Net Position:	65,706	-69,541	3,835
– Gross Longs:	90,191	35,941	7,084
– Gross Shorts:	24,485	105,482	3,249
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.3	38.5	44.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.5	-10.0	26.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 43,515 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,961 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.9	30.7	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	79.1	1.2
– Net Position:	43,515	-47,068	3,553
– Gross Longs:	62,123	29,847	4,729
– Gross Shorts:	18,608	76,915	1,176
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	4.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.9	18.8	40.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	-4.8	-2.6

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -827 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 954 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,781 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.7	6.8	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	83.5	1.5	6.9
– Net Position:	-827	1,548	-721
– Gross Longs:	23,453	1,986	1,276
– Gross Shorts:	24,280	438	1,997
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	4.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.3	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.8	45.3	-27.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

16 May

EUR/USD Unchanged Amid Mixed News and Lingering Risks

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair remained steady near 1.1196 on Friday, closing the week with little movement.

Key drivers influencing EUR/USD

Earlier in the week, the US dollar strengthened as the US-China trade dispute showed signs of easing. However, this optimism was short-lived due to disappointing economic data.

The greenback initially rose by around 1% after Washington and Beijing agreed to reduce tariffs temporarily for 90 days, fuelling hopes of progress toward a broader trade deal. Yet, weak US economic indicators soon dampened sentiment:

The April producer price index (PPI) fell to 2.4% year-on-year, down from 3.4% and below the forecast of 2.5%
Month-on-month PPI dropped 0.5%, against expectations of no change
US retail sales growth slowed sharply to 0.1% in March, following February’s 1.7% surge
Industrial production stagnated in March after a 0.3% decline in February

These concerning figures have led traders to price in additional Fed rate cuts for 2025.

Technical analysis: EUR/USD

Media

H4 Chart:

The EUR/USD continues to consolidate around 1.1173. A temporary rise to 1.1276 (testing resistance from below) remains possible, but this uptick is considered a corrective phase within the broader downtrend. Once complete, the pair may resume its decline toward 1.0950, this being the first key support level. The MACD indicator confirms this outlook, with its signal line below zero and pointing downward.

H1 Chart:

The pair has already met a local bullish target at 1.12653, followed by a pullback to 1.1170. Today, another test of 1.1276 is plausible, but the broader expectation remains bearish, with a potential drop towards 1.1100. This scenario is reinforced by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is above 80, suggesting an imminent downward reversal towards 20.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD remains range-bound amid mixed fundamentals and technical signals. While a short-term rebound is possible, the dominant downtrend is expected to prevail, with key support levels at 1.0950 (H4) and 1.1100 (H1). Traders should monitor Fed policy expectations and upcoming economic data for further direction.

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15 May

GBP/USD at a Crossroads: Momentum Needed for New Buying Opportunities

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair has again lost direction, hovering around 1.3283 on Thursday after hitting a seven-day high mid-week.

Key drivers influencing GBP/USD movement

The US dollar weakened on Wednesday, allowing the pound to regain ground. This shift followed ongoing currency negotiations between the US and South Korea, where both parties agreed to continue discussions on exchange rate policies. The reduced demand for the greenback lent support to most major currencies, including sterling.

Domestically, the market focus shifted to the Bank of England (BoE) commentary. Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden emphasised the necessity of long-term reforms in the bond market. At the same time, Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Catherine Mann noted that further rate cuts would require more evident signs of easing price pressures – essentially, a sustained drop in inflation.

Meanwhile, the latest UK labour market data revealed an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.5%, the highest since 2021, accompanied by a slowdown in wage growth.

These factors have collectively reinforced expectations of further monetary policy easing by the BoE. Despite internal MPC dissent, last week’s 25bps rate cut caught markets off guard, as many expected a pause in the easing cycle.

Technical analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

The pair continues to trade within a broad consolidation range around 1.3260

The current range extends to 1.3360, with a technical pullback to 1.3260 (testing from above) now underway

A drop towards 1.3200 is anticipated. A break below this level could extend the downtrend to 1.3100, potentially stretching further to 1.3030

This bearish outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line remains above zero but is trending sharply upward

H1 Chart:

The pair broke above 1.3260, reaching the local upside target of 1.3360

Today’s corrective decline is testing 1.3260 again

A renewed upward move towards 1.3380 is possible if support holds

The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and rising towards 80

Conclusion

The GBP/USD remains in a holding pattern, awaiting fresh catalysts for a decisive move. While technical indicators suggest near-term volatility, the broader trend hinges on BoE policy signals and global risk sentiment. Traders should watch for a breakout beyond 1.3360 or a drop below 1.3200 for clearer directional bias.

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14 May

Yen Edges Higher as Market Capitalises on News-Driven Rebound

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair dipped to 147.61 on Wednesday as the yen gained ground following softer-than-expected US inflation data.

Key factors influencing USD/JPY movement

Recent developments in global trade also captured market attention. The US and China had earlier agreed to a temporary 90-day tariff reduction, though uncertainty lingers over future trade policy once the agreement expires.

In bilateral discussions, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stated that Tokyo would reject any provisional trade deal with the US unless it included safeguards for the auto industry. He urged Washington to reconsider its proposed 25% tariff on Japanese car imports.

Domestic data showed Japan’s producer prices rose at an annualised rate of 4.0% in April, down from 4.2% in March – marking the slowest growth since December last year.

The Bank of Japan remains cautious in its monetary policy approach, citing persistent uncertainties in both economic activity and inflation trends.

Meanwhile, demand for the yen as a safe-haven asset remains muted as global markets focus heavily on progress in US trade negotiations with key partners.

Technical analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

The pair completed its third upward wave, peaking at 148.62, before entering a corrective phase
The correction target stands at 146.40, with expectations of a new upward wave toward 150.90 once the pullback concludes
This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line has exited the histogram zone and points firmly downward

H1 Chart:

The market has consolidated around 147.50, with a downward breakout extending the correction
A further decline to 146.78 is anticipated, possibly followed by a retest of 147.50 (from below) before another drop toward 146.40
A subsequent upward wave targeting 148.62 is expected
The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 20 but rising sharply towards 50

Conclusion

The yen’s modest rebound reflects a combination of dollar weakness and cautious optimism in trade talks. However, with the BoJ maintaining a dovish stance and risk sentiment improving, further yen gains may be limited unless safe-haven demand resurges.

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