Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 131

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.06.20

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.0549
  • Prev Close: 1.0494
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.52%

The consumer price level in the Eurozone increased by 0.8% last month, above expectations of 0.6%. The annual inflation rate in the region jumped from 7.4% to 8.1%. Just a year ago, the inflation rate was 2%. Markets are now pricing in a 25 basis point ECB rate hike in July and at least one 50 basis point hike by September.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.0499, 1.0408, 1.0379
  • Resistance levels: 1.0611, 1.0680, 1.0723

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price has corrected to the average values, and the MACD indicator has become inactive, but the buyers’ pressure is still there. Under such market conditions, sell deals can be considered from the resistance level 1.0611, but only after the additional confirmation. A price move above 1.0611 is not desirable for the sellers. Buy trades are best to look for on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0499, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0611 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2022.06.20:
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Bullard Speaks at 19:45 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2348
  • Prev Close: 1.2218
  • % chg. over the last day: -1.06%

The UK will update its inflation data this week. While the average economist’s forecast for inflation suggests an increase to 9.1% in annual terms, one estimate by Natixis SA suggests a 10% value. The Bank of England believes it will peak at just above 11% this year. The BoE also warned that the economy could face contraction in the second quarter. Economists’ forecasts show that retail sales are likely to decline this week, while purchasing managers’ surveys show a further slowdown in manufacturing and services.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2176, 1.1974
  • Resistance levels: 1.2252, 1.2422, 1.2470, 1.2523, 1.2629

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price is trading between the two accumulative balances, but the initiative of the buyers remains in recent days. Under such market conditions, sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.2252, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades are best to look for on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.2176, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2422 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 132.15
  • Prev Close: 134.94
  • % chg. over the last day: +2.11%

On Friday, Central Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said that the country’s inflation rate is likely to remain in the 2% range. Therefore, monetary policy easing in Japan continues. There is no fundamental reason for the JPY to strengthen, so analysts expect the USD/JPY to rise further. On the other hand, if inflation data shows an increase in consumer prices later this week, the yen might appreciate sharply.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 134.74, 133.38, 131.67, 131.00, 130.12, 129.48, 128.76, 128.10, 127.64
  • Resistance levels: 135.16

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The price increased sharply on Friday after the news about the Bank of Japan keeping its soft monetary policy. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be considered from the support level of 134.74 or 133.38, but with confirmation. A resistance level of 135.16 is good for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 131.67, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/JPY
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2945
  • Prev Close: 1.3026
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.62%

According to a Bloomberg survey of economists, inflation in Canada is likely to reach its highest level in nearly 40 years. Statistics Canada data released this week is expected to show the Consumer Price Index reaching 7.3%. The Bank of Canada has warned that inflation will rise soon, and officials have continually revised their forecasts upward over the past year. The bank sees continued price pressures and has signaled that its interest rate will likely approach the upper end of a neutral range of 2% to 3%.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2970, 1.2815, 1.2709, 1.2618, 1.2578, 1.2510
  • Resistance levels: 1.3068

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The USD/CAD quotes continued to grow as the oil price decline negatively impacted the Canadian currency. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but the divergence is observed on several time frames, which means that price growth is limited. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals in the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2970. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.3068, but it is also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates below the 1.2815 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Currency Speculators boost US Dollar Index bets to 5-year high while Euro bets dip into bearish level

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

currency futures open interest chart

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

There were many really large moves this week in the COT positioning as the data was recorded on Tuesday – just one day ahead of the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 75 basis point increase in the US benchmark Fed Funds rate.

Currency market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets (Russian ruble futures positions have not been updated by the CFTC since March) we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for currency market positions was the Canadian dollar (24,264 contracts) and the Japanese yen (21,891 contracts) with the New Zealand dollar (12,933 contracts), Swiss franc (9,324 contracts), US Dollar Index (6,538 contracts), British pound sterling (5,214 contracts), Australian dollar (4,642 contracts), Bitcoin (571 contracts) and Brazil real (508 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets were the Mexican peso (-59,107 contracts) and the Euro (-56,561 contracts) this week.

Currency Speculators Notes:

US Dollar Index speculators raised their bullish bets for a second straight week this week and for the seventh time in the past ten weeks. These increases pushed the large speculator standing (+44,476 contracts) to the highest level in the past two hundred and seventy-three weeks, dating back more than five years to March 21st of 2017. The most bullish level ever was +81,270 contracts on March 10th of 2015. The US dollar strength keeps rolling along and the overall standing has now remained bullish for the past fifty consecutive weeks, dating back to July of 2021. The US Dollar Index price has continued its strength as well and reached a high this week of over 105.75 which is the best level for the DXY since back in December of 2002.

Euro speculators sharply dropped their positions this week by the most on record with a huge decline of -56,561 contracts. This record decline beat out the previous high of -52,107 contracts that took place on June 19th of 2018. Euro bets had been gaining over the past month and were at a total of +50,543 contracts before this week’s sharp turnaround which has now tipped the overall spec positioning into bearish territory for the first time since January.

Japanese yen speculator bets surged this week (+21,891 contracts) and gained for the fifth straight week. Yen speculator positions have been in bearish territory for over a year and have been extremely week since many central banks around the world started raising their interest rates. The Bank of Japan has not raised rates and has signaled that it will not do so, creating large interest rate differentials compared to the other major currencies. Despite the spec bets increase this week, the yen exchange rate came under further pressure this week with the USDJPY price closing over the 135.00 exchange rate (and remaining near 20-year highs).

Mexican Peso speculator bets fell sharply by -59,381 contracts this week and flipped the MXN speculator positioning from bullish to bearish. The weekly speculator decline is the largest fall in the past thirteen weeks and the decrease into a bearish standing is the first time since March 29th.

Canadian dollar bets jumped this week by the most in the past seventy-seven weeks and brought the speculator position back into bullish territory for the first time in six weeks. CAD speculator bets have now gained for four straight weeks and the overall spec standing is residing at the highest level since July 2021.

New Zealand dollar speculators also boosted their bets this week after the NZD positions had dropped in six out of the previous seven weeks. This week’s rise in weekly bets was the most in the past thirteen weeks but the overall speculator standing remains in bearish territory for the seventh straight week.


currency futures strength leaders

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Dollar Index (100 percent), Bitcoin (100 percent) and the Brazilian Real (96.8 percent) are leading the strength scores and are all in extreme bullish positions. On the downside, the Mexican peso (16.1 percent) has fallen into extreme bearish positioning followed by the Japanese yen (25.9 percent) and British pound (26.7 percent) which are just above the 20 percent extreme bearish threshold.

currency forex futures strength trends chart

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the US Dollar Index (19.5 percent), Japanese yen (19.1 percent) and Swiss franc (18 percent) have the highest six-week trend scores currently. The Mexican peso also leads the trends on the downside with a -17.5 percent trend change.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jun-14-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index61,1449144,476100-47,73603,26052
EUR668,16469-6,01833-28,4956834,51332
GBP238,32263-65,5962781,06378-15,46724
JPY232,51377-69,7552686,44378-16,68820
CHF39,36220-6,8083918,14772-11,33919
CAD175,2194723,20265-30,284437,08244
AUD142,85739-43,2544544,71052-1,45649
NZD45,41035-6,838609,77345-2,93518
MXN197,37548-26,3811623,148823,23357
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL69,9316747,21397-48,45841,24579
Bitcoin12,242681,061100-9470-11410

 


US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 44,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,938 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:86.92.99.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.280.93.8
– Net Position:44,476-47,7363,260
– Gross Longs:53,1331,7525,553
– Gross Shorts:8,65749,4882,293
– Long to Short Ratio:6.1 to 10.0 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.052.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.2-19.17.1

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -56,561 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,543 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.054.112.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.958.37.5
– Net Position:-6,018-28,49534,513
– Gross Longs:206,986361,15984,823
– Gross Shorts:213,004389,65450,310
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.267.931.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.1-1.15.9

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -65,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,214 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,810 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.377.28.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.843.215.1
– Net Position:-65,59681,063-15,467
– Gross Longs:29,343184,01120,625
– Gross Shorts:94,939102,94836,092
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.8 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):26.777.623.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.9-4.7-0.5

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -69,755 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 21,891 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -91,646 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.075.69.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.038.416.8
– Net Position:-69,75586,443-16,688
– Gross Longs:32,441175,78922,340
– Gross Shorts:102,19689,34639,028
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.0 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.977.819.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.1-16.55.7

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,808 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,132 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.966.222.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.220.151.7
– Net Position:-6,80818,147-11,339
– Gross Longs:4,29126,0459,026
– Gross Shorts:11,0997,89820,365
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 13.3 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.272.419.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.0-19.817.9

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 24,264 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,062 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.345.116.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.062.412.7
– Net Position:23,202-30,2847,082
– Gross Longs:56,55079,06429,357
– Gross Shorts:33,348109,34822,275
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):65.443.544.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.9-14.46.3

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -43,254 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,896 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.259.914.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:52.428.616.0
– Net Position:-43,25444,710-1,456
– Gross Longs:31,66085,59121,342
– Gross Shorts:74,91440,88122,798
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.752.248.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.77.810.4

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,838 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,933 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,771 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.861.84.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:47.940.311.4
– Net Position:-6,8389,773-2,935
– Gross Longs:14,89428,0622,236
– Gross Shorts:21,73218,2895,171
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.5 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.845.518.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.4-0.23.8

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -26,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -59,107 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,726 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:57.838.33.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:71.226.51.5
– Net Position:-26,38123,1483,233
– Gross Longs:114,09375,5326,170
– Gross Shorts:140,47452,3842,937
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.4 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.182.556.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.517.4-2.9

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 47,213 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,705 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:83.012.54.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.581.82.8
– Net Position:47,213-48,4581,245
– Gross Longs:58,0238,7113,197
– Gross Shorts:10,81057,1691,952
– Long to Short Ratio:5.4 to 10.2 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):96.84.079.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.3-5.0-4.0

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,061 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 490 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:81.70.58.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:73.08.29.2
– Net Position:1,061-947-114
– Gross Longs:9,996621,008
– Gross Shorts:8,9351,0091,122
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.010.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.3-30.9-3.5

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Murrey Math Lines 17.06.2022 (Brent, S&P 500)

Article By RoboForex.com

BRENT

On H4, Brent quotes have bounced off the 200-days Moving Average and are trading above it, indicating the end of the correction and the continuation of the uptrend. A test of 7/8 is to be expected, followed by a breakaway and growth to the resistance level of 8/8. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the support level at 6/8 downwards. In this case, the quotes can return to 5/8.

BRENTH4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, growth can be additionally confirmed by a breakaway upwards of the upper line of VoltyChannel.

BRENT_M15
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

S&P 500

On H4, the quotes rest in the overbought area. A test of 0/8 is expected, followed by a breakaway and growth to the resistance level of 2/8. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the support at -1/8 downwards. This might entail further falling to -2/8.

S&P 500_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, a breakaway of the upper line of VoltyChannel will increase the probability of price growth.

S&P 500_M15

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.06.17

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.0444
  • Prev Close: 1.0552
  • % chg. over the last day: +1.03%

Yesterday, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde informed Eurozone finance ministers of the ECB’s plans to cap bond spreads. The new mechanism, which Central Bank officials are developing, is designed to prevent pressure from irrational market movements on individual European countries as the ECB embarks on its first interest rate hike. The euro jumped by 1% on this news.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.0473, 1.0408, 1.0379
  • Resistance levels: 1.0611, 1.0680, 1.0723

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price has corrected to the average values, the MACD indicator became positive, and the buyers’ pressure is still there. Under such market conditions, sell deals can be considered from the resistance level 1.0611, but only after the additional confirmation. A price move above 1.0611 is not desirable for the sellers. Buy trades are best to look for on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0473, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0611 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2022.06.17:
  • – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 15:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2175
  • Prev Close: 1.2352
  • % chg. over the last day: +1.45%

The British pound rose sharply after the Bank of England implemented its fifth consecutive interest rate hike on Thursday to curb soaring inflation. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 to raise the bank rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, with three dissenting members voting to raise it by 50 basis points to 1.5%. The committee also stated that it would take whatever action is necessary to bring inflation back to the 2% target over the medium term in a sustainable manner.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2199, 1.1974
  • Resistance levels: 1.2363, 1.2422, 1.2470, 1.2523, 1.2629

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. But an initiative of buyers appeared. The MACD indicator became positive, and the price reached the priority change level. Under such market conditions, sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.2363, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades are best to look for on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.2199, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2363 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 133.81
  • Prev Close: 132.21
  • % chg. over the last day: -1.21%

The Bank of Japan kept interest rates ultra-low on Friday and its guidance to keep borrowing costs at “current or lower” levels, signaling its determination to focus on supporting economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic. In a sign that the recent sharp drop in the yen could impact the economy, the Central Bank said it would keep a close eye on how changes in the exchange rate could affect the economy. The growing divergence in monetary policy between Japan and the rest of the world has caused the yen to fall to a 24-year low.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 133.05, 131.67, 131.00, 130.12, 129.48, 128.76, 128.10, 127.64
  • Resistance levels: 134.21, 135.16

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The price fell sharply yesterday to the priority change level. Still, buyers managed to hold their positions, and news about the Bank of Japan keeping its soft monetary policy led to new bullish momentum. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be considered from the support level of 133.05, but with confirmation. A resistance level of 134.21 is good for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 131.67, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/JPY
News feed for 2022.06.17:
  • – Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 06:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement at 06:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2887
  • Prev Close: 1.2945
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.45%

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland on Thursday expressed confidence in the Bank of Canada’s ability to curb rising inflation and prevent prices from taking hold but said there is no guarantee the economy will avoid a recession. To contain price increases, the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point to 1.5% this month, the second increase in a row, and said it could act more decisively if necessary.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2815, 1.2709, 1.2618, 1.2578, 1.2510
  • Resistance levels: 1.2970, 1.3051

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price forms a flat structure. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals in the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2815. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2970, but it is also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates below the 1.2709 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 16.06.2022 (USDCAD, AUDUSD, USDCHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

On H4, USDCAD formed a Hammer at the support level. Going by the signal, the pair currently get into another ascending impulse. The goal of the growth will be 1.3030. However, the price can still drop to the support level of 1.2870 with a subsequent bounce and continuation of the uptrend after a correction.

USDCAD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

On H4, at the resistance level, the pair formed a Harami reversal pattern. Going by this pattern now might result in a descending impulse. The aim of the decline is 0.6890. Upon testing the support, the quotes might break it away and go on declining. However, the price might grow to 0.7090 and continue the downtrend after the correction.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

On H4, at a pullback, upon testing the support level, the pair formed an Inverted Hammer. The pair can now go by the pattern in an ascending impulse. The goal of growth might be 1.0080. Upon testing the resistance level, the pair has all the chances to break through it and continue the uptrend. However, the price can drop to 0.9890 and continue the uptrend upon correcting.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Murrey Math Lines 16.06.2022 (USDCHF, XAUUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

On H4, the quotes are above the 200-days Moving Average, which means prevalence of the uptrend. A test of 2/8 is expected, followed by a breakaway and growth to the resistance level of 3/8. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the support level at 1/8 downwards. In this case, the quotes might return to 0/8.

USDCHFH4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, a breakaway of the upper line of VoltyChannel will be a signal of the price growth.

USDCHF_M15
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

On H4, the quotes have escaped the oversold area and are now trading above 1/8. Currently, we should expect further price growth that might end in a breakaway upwards of 2/8 and test the resistance level of 1/8, returning the quotes to the oversold area.

XAUUSD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, the upper line of VoltyChannel is broken, increasing the probability of further price growth.

XAUUSD_M15

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.06.16

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.0408
  • Prev Close: 1.0447
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.37%

The Federal Reserve raised its target interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point and expected the economy to slow and US unemployment to rise in the coming months. Earlier economic data on Wednesday showed that US retail sales unexpectedly fell by 0.3% in May, the first decline in 5 months. As a result, the dollar index fell sharply, sending the EURUSD currency pair higher. In her speech yesterday, ECB head Christine Lagarde hinted that the ECB needs to be consistent in its policy, not aggressive. Traders likely should not expect the ECB to raise its rate by 0.5% in July aggressively. France’s inflation rate increased by 0.7% in May to 5.2% y/y.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.0408, 1.0379
  • Resistance levels: 1.0503, 1.0570, 1.0611, 1.0680

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price is clearly forming a flat structure. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, sell deals can be considered from the resistance level 1.0503 or 1.0570, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades are best to look for on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0408, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0570 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2022.06.16:
  • – Eurozone Italian Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.1993
  • Prev Close: 1.2172
  • % chg. over the last day: +1.49%

The Bank of England will hold its monetary policy meeting today. The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates for the fifth time to suppress inflationary growth amid slowing growth and a weakening currency. Some market participants call for the Monetary Policy Committee to implement a 50 basis point hike, but analysts are leaning more toward a 25 basis point move. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicts that Britain will be the weakest G-7 next year as higher interest rates, taxes, shrinking trade, and soaring food and energy prices will weigh on households.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2104, 1.1974
  • Resistance levels: 1.2199, 1.2265, 1.2363, 1.2422, 1.2470, 1.2523, 1.2629

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. But an initiative of buyers appeared. The MACD indicator has become positive, and the price has corrected to the average values. Under such market conditions, sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.2199, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades are best to look for on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.2104, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2363 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
News feed for 2022.06.16:
  • – UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK BoE Monetary Policy Statement at 14:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 135.45
  • Prev Close: 133.82
  • % chg. over the last day: -1.44%

After the Fed meeting yesterday, investors are now turning their attention to the Bank of Japan, which has increased its bond purchases this week in an attempt to limit the rise in yields. The Central Bank is expected to stick to all of its key policy parameters when it concludes its meeting on Friday. In this case, the Bank of Japan risks putting more pressure on yields, accelerating the yen’s fall and increasing public concern over rising prices.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 133.50, 132.85, 132.00, 131.00, 130.12, 129.48, 128.76, 128.10, 127.64
  • Resistance levels: 135.16

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The price started to form a wide range, and the MACD indicator became negative. It is best to wait for a slight correction, as the price strongly deviates from the average values. Buy trades can be considered from the support level of 132.85, but with confirmation. A resistance level of 135.16 is good for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 132.00, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/JPY
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2928
  • Prev Close: 1.2891
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.28%

The Canadian dollar rose sharply yesterday amid a decline in the dollar index, which led to a decline in the USD/CAD quotes. The sharp decline in oil prices did not significantly impact the Canadian currency. The fundamental picture now is that both the US Fed and the Bank of Canada are on the way to raising the interest rates, so the confidence in this currency pair will often shift from one currency to the other.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2815, 1.2709, 1.2618, 1.2578, 1.2510
  • Resistance levels: 1.2917, 1.2991

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price reached the resistance level and started to correct. The MACD indicator became negative, and sellers were slightly pressured. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals in the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2815. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2917, but it is also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates below the 1.2709 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Murrey Math Lines 15.06.2022 (USDJPY, USDCAD)

Article By RoboForex.com

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

On H4, the pair rests above the 200-days Moving Average, demonstrating an uptrend. The pair is likely to rise over 7/8 and reach the resistance level of 8/8. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the support level at 6/8 downwards, in which case the quotes can correct to 5/8.

USDJPYH4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, the upper line of VoltyChannel is broken away, confirming an uptrend and a high probability of further growth of the price.

USDJPY_M15
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

On H4, the quotes have broken through the 200-days Moving Average and are resting above it, indicating possible development of an uptrend. The price is likely to test 3/8, break through it, and rise to the resistance level of 4/8. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway downwards of the support level at 2/8. This can lead to further falling to 1/8.

USDCAD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, the upper line of VoltyChannel is broken away, increasing the probability of further growth.

USDCAD_M15

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: G10 Currencies Under The Spotlight

By ForexTime

The past few days have been incredibly eventful for global markets as concerns over soaring inflation and slowing economic growth sparked explosive levels of volatility!

There was plenty of action across stock, currency, and commodity markets as investors braced for the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate decision on Wednesday evening. After last Friday’s red hot inflation figures, markets are pricing in a 75 basis point US rate hike this month – the biggest hike since 1994. Such an aggressive move from the Fed is likely to turbocharge the dollar, which has already appreciated every single G10 currency this week.

Ahead of the Fed meeting, our attention will be directed towards major currency pairs which could be influenced by the rate decision and Powell’s press conference.

EURUSD shaky and tired

Euro bulls were injected with fresh confidence this morning after the European Central Bank (ECB) announced an emergency meeting to discuss the market turmoil.

Nevertheless, the trend remains bearish on the daily timeframe with 1.0500 acting as resistance. Sustained weakness below this level could encourage a decline towards 1.0350. If bulls are able to close above 1.0500, the next key level of interest can be found at 1.0630 and 1.0780, respectively.

GBPUSD descends deeper into the abyss

The past few days have certainly not been kind to the GBPUSD.

Yesterday, prices tumbled to levels not seen since March 2020 as traders eyed the widening rate differentials between the Fed and BoE. Prices are heavily bearish on the daily charts as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs. The candlesticks are trading within a downwards channel and below the 50, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Average. If bears can secure a daily close below 1.1950 opening the doors towards 1.1700. A move back above 1.2150 may signal an incline towards 1.2300.

USDJPY bulls still in control

We expect the USDJPY to remain bullish with a breakout opening the doors to further upside.

Key levels of interest will be 135.00 and 134.00. A solid move towards 136.00 will take prices to levels not seen since 1998 and could trigger an incline higher towards 138.00. Alternatively, a selloff below 134.00 may inspire bears to attack 131.00. There is a classic breakout/down opportunity on the USDJPY with a fresh directional catalyst needed to spark the move up or down.

AUDUSD gearing to sink lower?

After experiencing five consecutive days of losses, the AUDUSD is attempting to rebound with prices trading around 0.6950 as of writing. The trend remains heavily bearish as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs. However, there could be a minor rebound before bears attack again. A technical bounce towards 0.7050 could invite sellers back into the game. If the current price jump proves short-lived, the AUDUSD could descend back towards 0.6850.

Bonus outlook: Gold

It’s been a rollercoaster trading week for gold so far thanks to the dollar and Treasury yields.

After taking a real beating on Monday and sulking on Tuesday, the precious metal fought back on Wednesday ahead of the Fed meeting. The precious metal could be in store for more pain if Jerome Powell strikes a hawkish tone or signals that the Fed will maintain its aggressive approach toward raising rates.

Looking at the technical picture, prices are trading below the 50, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Average while the MACD trades below zero. A solid daily close below $1800 could signal a decline back towards recent lows at $1785. Should $1850 prove to be reliable support, a move towards $1870 and $1900 could be on the cards.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.06.15

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.0406
  • Prev Close: 1.0417
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.10%

Germany’s inflation rate increased by 0.9% last month to 7.9% annually (the highest level since 1973). The main reason for the high inflation is still rising energy prices. At the same time, the ZEW economic sentiment indicator for Germany rose over the past month. The report indicates that financial market experts are less pessimistic about the economy. However, the economy is still exposed to numerous risks, such as the effects of sanctions against Russia, the unclear pandemic situation in China, and the gradual change in the ECB’s monetary policy. The report also indicates that inflation expectations in the Eurozone have declined again. Still, ECB officials clearly state that rising inflation across the EU is of great concern to policymakers.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.0379
  • Resistance levels: 1.0509, 1.0563, 1.0611, 1.0680

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. There are signs that the fall has slowed down and turned into a flat structure. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone but without any signs of sellers’ pressure. Under such market conditions, it is better to wait for a small pullback, as the price has strongly deviated from the averages. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level 1.0509 or 1.0563, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades are best to look for on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0379, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0680 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2022.06.15:
  • – Eurozone French Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 19:20 (GMT+3);
  • – US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Monetary Policy Statement at 21:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Economic Projection at 21:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2131
  • Prev Close: 1.1997
  • % chg. over the last day: -1.11%

The UK-US government bond yield spread is renewing multi-year lows, signaling the continuation of this currency pair’s downtrend. At the same time, tighter monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve strengthens the dollar index, which is negative for the British currency. Economic indicators also are not encouraging. The British unemployment rate increased from 3.7% to 3.8% last month.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.1974
  • Resistance levels: 1.2127, 1.2199, 1.2265, 1.2363, 1.2422, 1.2470, 1.2523, 1.2629

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone with signs of oversold and divergence. Under such market conditions, it is better to wait for a small pullback, as the price has strongly deviated from the averages. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.2127, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades are best to look for on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.1974, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2422 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
News feed for 2022.06.15:
  • – US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Monetary Policy Statement at 21:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Economic Projection at 21:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 134.43
  • Prev Close: 135.45
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.75%

The Bank of Japan stepped up its policy defense yesterday, unveiling a new set of unscheduled purchases, including purchases with much longer maturities. These sharp moves reflect the Bank of Japan’s desire to defend its yield curve adjustment policy, even if it would cause the yen to fall further as the Federal Reserve accelerates the pace of rate hikes. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda insists that it is too early for Japan to retreat from ultra-low rates, as the economy is still recovering from the pandemic and inflation is largely driven by rising energy prices. The majority of economists surveyed expect the Bank to stick with its policy this week.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 132.85, 132.00, 131.00, 130.12, 129.48, 128.76, 128.10, 127.64
  • Resistance levels: 135.16

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. But there are signs of slowing, and divergence on the MACD indicator is already observed in several time frames. It is best to wait for a slight correction, as the price has deviated strongly from the average lines. Buy trades can be considered from the support level of 132.85, but with confirmation. A resistance level of 135.16 is good for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 132.00, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/JPY
News feed for 2022.06.15:
  • – US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Monetary Policy Statement at 21:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Economic Projection at 21:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2891
  • Prev Close: 1.2954
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.49%

The bets of a major interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada next month are rising rapidly amid expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve. There is now an 80% probability of a 0.75% rate hike at the Canadian central bank’s July 13 meeting, bringing the interest rate to 2.25%. Last week, traders estimated a roughly 50% chance of such a hike. The growth of the dollar index provokes the growth of USD/CAD quotes even though oil prices remain at their highs.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2881, 1.2815, 1.2709, 1.2618, 1.2578, 1.2510
  • Resistance levels: 1.2991

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price is growing steadily, but there are signs of a slowdown. The MACD indicator shows overbought and there are signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals in the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2881. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2991, but it is also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates below the 1.2709 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
News feed for 2022.06.15:
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Monetary Policy Statement at 21:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Economic Projection at 21:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.