Forex and Currency News

Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 131

Currency Speculators reboot their Euro bullish bets to a 6-Week High

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Click to Enlarge

Highlighting the COT currency data is the bounce-back for the Euro currency futures contracts. Euro speculative positions jumped by over +18,000 contracts this week and rose for a third consecutive week. This week marked the second time in the past three weeks that speculator positions increased by more than +18,000 contracts (+22,907 contracts on May 10th) and now Euro bets have gained by a total of +45,308 contracts over the past three weeks. The speculator’s bullish position marks the highest standing of the past six weeks at +38,930 contracts.

Euro speculator positions had recently fallen into a bearish speculative level on May 3rd (-6,378 contracts) after dropping by a total of -45,438 contracts from April 19th to May 3rd. This was the first bearish position for the Euro since early January. The speculator sentiment has been weaker so far in 2022 compared to preceding years as Euro bets are averaging just +29,199 weekly contracts in 2022. This compares to the Euro bets average of +60,837 weekly contracts over 2021 and an average of +92,464 weekly contracts over 2020.

The recent improvement in Euro positions comes amid increasing expectations for the European Central Bank to start raising interest rates higher and end their negative interest rate regime in the third quarter. The Euro exchange rate recently hit its lowest level versus the US Dollar since January of 2017 with a drop to approximately 1.350 (EUR/USD) on May 13th. Since then, the Euro has rallied over the past couple of weeks and closed Friday at the 1.0733 exchange rate.

Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Euro (18,591 contracts), US Dollar Index (1,826 contracts), Japanese yen (2,865 contracts), Brazil real (619 contracts), Canadian dollar (1,809 contracts), Mexican peso (1,577 contracts) and Bitcoin (43 contracts).

The currencies with declining bets were the Australian dollar (-804 contracts), Swiss franc (-3,081 contracts), British pound sterling (-1,131 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (-1,554 contracts).

Speculator strength standings for each market where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme

OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range
Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range
Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-24-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	61,857	93	38,039	91	-40,877	7	2,838	48
EUR	708,938	86	38,930	47	-72,600	55	33,670	30
GBP	253,864	73	-80,372	16	97,042	87	-16,670	21
JPY	237,256	80	-99,444	8	106,699	88	-7,255	39
CHF	49,918	38	-19,673	31	31,694	76	-12,021	17
CAD	138,508	22	-12,687	30	6,933	71	5,754	41
AUD	158,615	51	-45,446	43	53,269	59	-7,823	33
NZD	59,279	61	-19,321	39	22,703	65	-3,382	13
MXN	177,125	39	29,792	40	-34,352	58	4,560	62
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	63,976	59	38,714	88	-40,501	12	1,787	86
Bitcoin	11,729	64	849	100	-817	0	-32	12

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,826 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,213 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	86.8	3.5	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	69.6	3.6
– Net Position:	38,039	-40,877	2,838
– Gross Longs:	53,675	2,157	5,076
– Gross Shorts:	15,636	43,034	2,238
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.4	6.7	47.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.5	-8.0	-39.1

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,930 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 18,591 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,339 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.4	51.7	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.9	61.9	7.6
– Net Position:	38,930	-72,600	33,670
– Gross Longs:	237,072	366,345	87,892
– Gross Shorts:	198,142	438,945	54,222
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.0	55.4	30.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.0	-3.4	19.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -80,372 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,131 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,241 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	80.3	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.9	42.1	14.1
– Net Position:	-80,372	97,042	-16,670
– Gross Longs:	25,936	203,802	19,107
– Gross Shorts:	106,308	106,760	35,777
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.1	87.1	21.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.7	15.4	2.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -99,444 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,309 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.0	81.0	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.9	36.0	13.5
– Net Position:	-99,444	106,699	-7,255
– Gross Longs:	16,567	192,215	24,858
– Gross Shorts:	116,011	85,516	32,113
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.6	87.7	38.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.6	-12.3	26.0

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -19,673 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,081 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,592 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	2.7	80.0	16.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.1	16.5	40.7
– Net Position:	-19,673	31,694	-12,021
– Gross Longs:	1,355	39,913	8,308
– Gross Shorts:	21,028	8,219	20,329
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	4.9 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.8	76.2	16.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.8	12.1	-12.4

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -12,687 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,496 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	54.1	23.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	49.1	19.0
– Net Position:	-12,687	6,933	5,754
– Gross Longs:	28,999	74,953	32,048
– Gross Shorts:	41,686	68,020	26,294
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.4	71.1	41.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.9	32.1	-30.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -45,446 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -804 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,642 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	62.7	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.7	29.1	16.7
– Net Position:	-45,446	53,269	-7,823
– Gross Longs:	36,579	99,401	18,615
– Gross Shorts:	82,025	46,132	26,438
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.7	58.6	33.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.5	26.4	-45.5

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -19,321 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,767 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.1 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.1	76.7	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.7	38.4	9.4
– Net Position:	-19,321	22,703	-3,382
– Gross Longs:	10,749	45,458	2,202
– Gross Shorts:	30,070	22,755	5,584
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.8	65.4	13.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.9	35.7	-46.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 29,792 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,215 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.9	47.7	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	67.1	1.7
– Net Position:	29,792	-34,352	4,560
– Gross Longs:	83,031	84,474	7,605
– Gross Shorts:	53,239	118,826	3,045
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.1	58.5	62.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.3	-6.2	-0.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 619 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,095 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	70.5	22.1	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.9	85.4	3.2
– Net Position:	38,714	-40,501	1,787
– Gross Longs:	45,076	14,132	3,826
– Gross Shorts:	6,362	54,633	2,039
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.4	11.8	85.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	8.2	-12.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of 849 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 43 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.9	1.2	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.7	8.2	9.4
– Net Position:	849	-817	-32
– Gross Longs:	9,723	141	1,072
– Gross Shorts:	8,874	958	1,104
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	3.6	12.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.0	-23.6	-6.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

27 May

Murrey Math Lines 27.05.2022 (Brent, S&P 500)

Article By RoboForex.com

BRENT

In the H4 chart, Brent is trading above the 200-day Moving Average to indicate a possible ascending tendency. In this case, the price is expected to test 6/8, break it, and then continue moving upwards to reach the resistance at 7/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the asset breaks the support at 5/8 to the downside. After that, the instrument may reverse and return to 3/8.

As we can see in the M15 chart, the pair has broken the upside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, may continue trading upwards.

S&P 500

As we can see in the H4 chart, the S&P Index is trading below the 200-day Moving Average to indicate a descending tendency. In this case, the price is expected to rebound from 2/8 and resume falling towards the support at 0/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the asset breaks the resistance at 2/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may reverse and grow to reach 3/8.

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue its decline.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

27 May

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.05.27

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0683
Prev Close: 1.0729
% chg. over the last day: +0.43%

US GDP declines amid a strengthening labor market point to pre-recession signs. On the other hand, the decline in GDP is due to the fact that the US spends more on imports than other countries on exports from the United States. This led to a trade deficit, which contributed to the GDP contraction.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0689, 1.0643, 1.0680, 1.0611, 1.0568, 1.0509, 1.0445, 1.0379
Resistance levels: 1.0759, 1.0799, 1.0869

From a technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The MACD indicator is positive again, but the divergence has increased, indicating that it is becoming harder for the price to move up. Under such market conditions, investors can look for buy trades on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0689, but only with confirmation. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0759 but only after the additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0611 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.05.27:

– US FOMC Member Bullard Speaks at 14:35 (GMT+3);
– US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2564
Prev Close: 1.2608
% chg. over the last day: +0.35%

Yield spreads on the UK, and US government bonds are falling, which positively affects the strength of the British currency. On the other hand, inflation in the UK is now higher than in the US, and the Bank of England should actively raise rates but is afraid of driving the economy into recession. For now, analysts see a 0.25% interest rate hike at the next Bank of England meeting. The UK plans to impose a temporary tax on energy profits to offset losses from inflation.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2612, 1.2525, 1.2437, 1.2398, 1.2283, 1.2199
Resistance levels: 1.2669, 1.2792, 1.2981

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD currency pair trend is bullish. The MACD indicator is positive, but the divergence is getting stronger, which indicates the weakness of the buyers. Under such market conditions, buy deals may be considered from the support level of 1.2525, but only with additional confirmation. Sell deals should be looked for from the resistance level of 1.2669, but with confirmation in the form of sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2437 support level and fixes below, the mid-term downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 127.26
Prev Close: 127.07
% chg. over the last day: -0.15%

Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said again that the Central Bank should continue to ease monetary policy. When asked how the Bank of Japan would normalize it, the answer was : “When exiting easy policy, the BoJ will likely combine rate hike with balance sheet reduction through specific means, the timing will depend on economic, price and financial developments at the time.” Core consumer prices in Tokyo remained at 1.9%, the same as last month, according to the last data released on Friday.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 126.25, 125.47
Resistance levels: 127.53, 128.29, 128.73, 129.07, 130.12, 130.99

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency is bearish. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but the buyer’s pressure is weak. Buy trades can be considered from the support level of 126.25, but with confirmation. For sell deals, resistance level of 127.53 may be considered, but only with additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 128.73, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.05.27:

– Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2816
Prev Close: 1.2769
% chg. over the last day: -0.37%

The fundamental picture of the USD/CAD currency pair remains the same. The Bank of Canada is on the path to aggressively rising rates, as well as the US Federal Reserve. Oil prices jumped by 3% on Thursday, reaching a two-week high, which gave confidence to the Canadian dollar since it’s a commodity currency. Traders should only trade USD/CAD with short targets as ,fundamentally, both the dollar index and the Canadian dollar are essentially supported by the central bank.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2736, 1.2692, 1.2644, 1.2607, 1.2521
Resistance levels: 1.2787, 1.2893, 1.2953, 1.3000, 1.3052

The USD/CAD currency pair is bearish in terms of technical analysis. The MACD indicator has become bearish, but the sellers’ pressure is slowly decreasing due to the growth of divergence. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2736, but only with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2787, but also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates above 1.2953, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

27 May

The US economy is slowing down. Russia openly blackmails Europe

by JustForex

Stronger quarterly results from retailers and a rally in tech-led stocks ended their longest weekly losing streak since 1932. The US indices traded higher yesterday. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 1.61%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 1.99%. NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.68%.

US GDP fell by 1.5% in the first quarter, worse than expected. Initial jobless claims fell to 210,000 (-8,000 for the week). The US GDP decline amid a strengthening labor market points to pre-recession signs. On the other hand, the decline in GDP is due to the fact that the US spent more on imports than other countries on US exports. This led to a trade deficit, which contributed to the contraction of GDP. US pending home sales fell by 3.9% in April. This is the sixth consecutive month of decline. As mortgage rates rise, analysts predict existing home sales will decline 9% in 2022, and home price growth will drop to 5% by the end of the year.

On Wednesday, the United States brought Russia closer to a historic default by not renewing its license to pay its bondholders, as Washington increased the pressure following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The White House said on Thursday that it expects a minimal impact on the US and global economies from the Russian default.

Major European indices mostly rose yesterday. The German DAX (DE30) gained 1.59% , the French CAC 40 (FR40) added 1.78%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 1.47% and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) increased by 0.56%.

Yesterday, Russian President Putin had a telephone conversation with Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi in which he resorted to outright blackmail. Putin said that Russia is ready to contribute to overcoming the food crisis if provided sanctions are lifted. Russia is still blocking Ukrainian ports, stealing Ukrainian grain, and thus increasing the risk of a food crisis not only in Europe but also in the world since Russia and Ukraine are key grain exporters.

The EU could still strike a deal on the oil embargo in the coming days or turn to other instruments if no agreement is reached. Hungary remains a stumbling block to a unanimous solution. Budapest is demanding about 750 million euros ($800 million) to upgrade its refineries and expand its pipeline from Croatia so that the country can refuse Russian oil.

Oil prices jumped by 3% on Thursday, hitting a two-week high, as market participants bet on rising consumption ahead of Monday’s Memorial Day holiday, which marks the peak of America’s driving season. Meanwhile, on Thursday, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang issued a pessimistic outlook on the new struggle with Covid, faced by the world’s biggest oil importer. Analysts said the China factor could affect sentiment again in the coming week.

Asian markets traded lower yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.27%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0.27%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was down 0.69% by the end of the day.

Australian retailers recorded sales growth for the fourth month in a row, a sign of economic resilience despite rising inflation. Retail sales increased by 0.9% in April to a new record of $33.9 billion ($24.1 billion) and fell just short of economists’ expectations for a 1% increase. On the other hand, an ABS business survey released on Thursday showed that more than a third of all firms in Australia plan to raise prices on their goods or services over the next three months. This points to strong inflationary momentum across the economy and raises questions about the sustainability of household spending growth.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,057.84 +79.11 (+1.99%)

Dow Jones (US30) 32,637.19 +516.91 (+1.61%)

DAX (DE40) 14,231.29 +223.36 (+1.59%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,564.92 +42.17 (+0.56%)

USD Index 101.74 -0.31 (-0.31%)

Important events for today:

– Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Bullard Speaks at 14:35 (GMT+3);
– US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

Economics & Fundamentals Forex and Currency News

27 May

Week Ahead: US Jobs to revive dollar bulls?

By ForexTime

– The dollar is set for a monthly decline despite rallying to levels not seen in 20 years two weeks ago!

It has depreciated against almost every single G10 currency in May with the less hawkish than feared Fed minutes keeping bulls at bay.

Investors are expecting the Fed to adopt a flexible approach on rates which could soothe fears over the central bank’s overly aggressive stance tipping the US economy into recession. Given how these expectations are boosting sentiment and rekindling risk appetite, the dollar may remain depressed and unloved as we enter June.

Before we take a deep dive into what to expect from the greenback and other key assets over the next few days, here are the scheduled economic data releases and events in the coming week:

Monday, 30 May

EUR: Germany CPI and Eurozone consumer confidence
EU leaders meet in Brussels with geopolitics driving the agenda
US markets closed for Memorial Day holiday

Tuesday, 31 May

CNH: China PMI
NZD: New Zealand building permits, business confidence
JPY: Unemployment Japan, retail sales & consumer confidence index
EUR: Eurozone CPI
USD: CB consumer confidence

Wednesday, 1 June

CNH: China Caixin PMI
AUD: Australia GDP report
CAD: Bank of Canada rate decision
EUR: Unemployment Eurozone, ECB President Christine Lagarde speech
USD: U.S. construction spending, ISM Manufacturing, Fed speeches by New York President John Williams and St. Lous Fed President James Bullard, Fed balance sheet roll off begins

Thursday, 2 June

AUD: Australia trade
EUR: Eurozone PPI
USD: U.S. factory orders, durable good, initial jobless claims, Fed speech by Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester
Brent: Virtual OPEC+ Ministerial meeting
UK markets closed for Spring Bank Holiday

Friday, 3 June

USD: US employment report for May
EUR: Eurozone retail sales, Markit services PMI
100th day of war in Ukraine
UK markets closed for Queen Elizabeth II Platinum Jubilee

The week ahead could be explosively volatile as investors continue to juggle inflation jitters, recession fears, ongoing geopolitical risks, and China’s covid-19 curbs. We expect sentiment to also be influenced by key economic reports from major economies, including the all-important US jobs report on Friday. US markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day while UK markets will be closed from Thursday to Friday for the Queen’s platinum jubilee. Nevertheless, the major data releases and events should keep investors well occupied.

Will dollar bulls return in June?

King dollar could have the opportunity to redeem itself in June if the key monthly US payrolls report on Friday exceeds market expectations. A strong set of results in May could reinforce Fed hawks and enforce fresh pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates – especially after the strong readings in April.

According to a survey on Bloomberg, the US economy is expected to have created 329k jobs in May with the unemployment rate dropping to 3.5% and average hourly wages seen rising 0.4%. Dollar bulls could have the opportunity to fight back if the report matches or surpasses forecasts. We expect the dollar to also be influenced by speeches from numerous Fed officials throughout the week.

Looking at the technical picture, the Dollar Index (DXY) certainly needs some love. Prices are under pressure on the daily charts with 101.00 acting as the next key level of interest. If bulls are able to fight back before prices secure a solid close below 101.00, then a rebound towards the 103.00 regions and higher could be on the cards.

The weakening dollar has provided the FX space some breathing room, as the equally-weighted USD Index eyes the 1.1450 level. A strong breakdown below this support could encourage a steeper decline towards 1.1350.

Keep an eye on the S&P500

The volatility witnessed across equity markets has placed investors on an emotional rollercoaster ride. One major index that has hijacked our attention is the S&P500 which dipped a toe into bear territory on the 20th of May before bouncing back. With the Fed minutes signalling room for a pause in rate hikes later this year, this could provide a lifeline to equity bulls. However, a strong set of US economic reports and rising inflation could cap the S&P500 rebound.

A strong breakout above 4100 may encourage a move higher towards the 4313 lower high. Should 4100 prove to be reliable resistance, the S&P500 finds itself back in that psychological “red zone”.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

26 May

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 26.05.2022 (AUDUSD, EURUSD, AUDNZD)

Article By RoboForex.com

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is rebounding from Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen. The instrument is currently moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.7005 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.7290. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.6910. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.6805. Bulls may face strong resistance at 0.7130.

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is testing the support area. The instrument is currently moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Kijun-Sen at 1.0635 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.0865. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.0450. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.0455.

AUDNZD, “Australian Dollar vs New Zealand Dollar”

AUDNZD is moving within the bearish channel. The instrument is currently moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 1.0985 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.0815. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.1035. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.1130.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

26 May

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 26.05.2022 (EURUSD, USDJPY, EURGBP)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the asset has formed an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern close to the support area. At the moment, EURUSD may reverse in the form of a new ascending impulse. In this case, the upside target may be at 1.0810. However, an alternative scenario implies that the price may fall to reach 1.0615 first and then resume the uptrend.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDJPY has formed a Harami pattern not far from the support area. At the moment, the asset is reversing in the form of a new correctional impulse. In this case, the upside correctional target may be at 127.90. At the same time, an opposite scenario implies that the price may fall to reach 126.25 and continue the downtrend without any corrections towards the resistance level.

EURGBP, “Euro vs Great Britain Pound”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming a Hammer pattern near the support area, EURGBP is reversing in the form of a new ascending impulse. In this case, the upside target may be the resistance level at 0.8585. Later, the market may test this level, break it, and continue the ascending tendency. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, according to which the asset may correct to reach 0.8465 before resuming the uptrend.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

26 May

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.05.26

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0736
Prev Close: 1.0678
% chg. over the last day: -0.54%

The Fed minutes confirmed that most participants are prone to raise rates by 50 basis points at their next two meetings. Concerns were also expressed that it would be difficult to reduce inflation to 2% if inflation expectations remain elevated. Much attention should be paid to today’s US GDP data. In the initial report, the economy unexpectedly contracted by 1.4%, so if today’s data is worse, it could heighten fears of stagflation.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0643, 1.0680, 1.0611, 1.0568, 1.0509, 1.0445, 1.0379, 1.0342
Resistance levels: 1.0700, 1.0759, 1.0799, 1.0869

From a technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. But the price began to correct, and the MACD indicator became inactive. Under such market conditions, investors can look for buy trades on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0643, but only with confirmation. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0759 but only after the additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0508 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.05.26:

– US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2524
Prev Close: 1.2572
% chg. over the last day: +0.38%

The UK Consumer Confidence Index is the lowest since 1974. Rising consumer prices are increasing the risks of recession in the British economy. The Bank of England does not deny such a scenario in the next six months but does not intend to act aggressively. Many analysts believe that the Bank of England has already come to terms with the stagflation scenario and does not want to tighten its monetary policy so as not to increase the pressure on the already slowing economy.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2525, 1.2437, 1.2398, 1.2283, 1.2199
Resistance levels: 1.2602, 1.2695, 1.2792, 1.2981

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD currency pair trend is bullish. The MACD indicator is positive, but the divergence is getting stronger, which indicates the weakness of the buyers. Under such market conditions, buy deals may be considered from the support level of 1.2525, but only with additional confirmation. Sell deals should be looked for from the resistance level of 1.2602, but with confirmation in the form of sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2398 support level and fixes below, the mid-term downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 126.78
Prev Close: 127.26
% chg. over the last day: +0.39%

The Producer Price Index, which shows the inflation rate between factories and plants, rose from 1.3% to 1.7% year on year. This is a sign that inflationary pressures are rising throughout the economy. Consumer prices have already reached the 2% target. But the Bank of Japan still adheres to soft monetary policy, arguing that inflation is not yet sustainable. Soft monetary policy weakens the national currency.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 126.25, 125.47
Resistance levels: 127.53, 128.29, 128.73, 129.07, 130.12, 130.99

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 129.07, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2817
Prev Close: 1.2817
% chg. over the last day: 0.00%

The fundamental picture of the USD/CAD currency pair remains the same. The Bank of Canada is on the way to aggressively raising rates, as well as the US Fed. Oil prices have been trading without significant dynamics for the last three trading sessions. Currently, the USD/CAD pair is trading in a wide sideways channel at the moment.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2817, 1.2783, 1.2774, 1.2692, 1.2644, 1.2607, 1.2521
Resistance levels: 1.2893, 1.2953, 1.3000, 1.3052

The USD/CAD currency pair is bearish in terms of technical analysis. But the price is forming a wide-volatile sideways, which will eventually lead to an impulsive movement. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2817, but only with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2893, but also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates above 1.2953, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.05.26:

– Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

26 May

FOMC Minutes stabilise the dollar, for now

By ForexTime

Markets have steadied overnight after Wall Street found a bid in another choppy session. Gains picked up in equity markets through the day, with the S&P500 and Nasdaq both posting decent returns. European bourses have opened up mildly in the green, while the dollar is trading mixed after last night’s FOMC Minutes sprang few surprises.

The minutes from the Fed meeting held in early May had culminated in a 50bp rate hike, the biggest jump in 22 years. Most officials backed 50bp hikes at the next couple of meetings and all participants agreed a half-percentage point rate hike was appropriate this month. They also discussed the chance of “restrictive” policy through more aggressive increases. However, they worried that this could undermine the strong recovery in the jobs market.

There appears to be a clear lack of uncertainty of what needs to be done in the near-term. The Fed is clearly keen to get back to “neutral” by front-loading and will reassess its options in the summer. By the time the FOMC gets to September, they will have plenty more economic data to make their next move, which means they continue to maintain optionality. Market pricing didn’t change a great deal, with the next two Fed meetings locked in with two 50bp moves. The 60% chance of a 25bp move in September remains.

Mixed US economic picture

Of course, since the meeting, much has changed. US stock markets have dropped a further 8% or so while the trend in domestic data suggests the economy may be weakening more quickly than anticipated. Witness the recent fall in new home sales as higher mortgage rates begin to weigh on the consumer. Tomorrow’s personal consumption and core PCE deflator figures for April are expected to support the economy and prove it is strong enough to withstand “expeditious” policy tightening and rate hikes.

Projections for policy tightening have also corrected since early May. Indeed, there was no mention of a big 75bp rate hike in the Minutes so that call is off the table. The Fed’s terminal rate, the point at which the Fed Funds rate peaks, has fallen back below 3%. This has seen the dollar retrace from its 20-year highs when the Dollar Index printed above 105. The greenback should remain underpinned as the rate hike cycle stays in place, though other countries around the globe are narrowing that spread between interest rates which is bolstering their currencies. This week’s low in the DXY at 101.64 could be key support.

Gold hits resistance

The tailwinds seem to be lining up in the yellow metal’s favour. These include a softer dollar, weaker economic data, Wall Street getting beaten up and concerns over a central bank policy mistake pushing the US into recession. And yet, the bid in gold has been fairly lacklustre with a focus remaining on elevated yields.

Technically, the downtrend from the April high at $1998 remains intact for now. The recent pullback from the low at $1786 has taken us back to $1868 resistance. This is the 38.2% Fib retracement of the recent 210-dollar correction in April-May. The 200-day SMA is $1839, while above lies the 100-day SMA at $1886 and the 50% retrace at $1892.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

26 May

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: Pivot Points & Fibonacci Retracements

By ForexTime

Global stocks edged cautiously higher on Wednesday as investors braced for the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes.

It’s been an eventful week for markets thus far, with global growth fears, inflation jitters and ongoing geopolitical risks influencing sentiment. In the currency arena, euro bulls dominated the scene while the dollar stabilised after two consecutive days of losses. Oil benchmarks rose on Wednesday, lifted by tight supplies and prospects of the summer driving season in the United States boosting demand. There was little action in gold which traded within a tight range.

With the various themes pulling and tugging at risk sentiment, this could present fresh opportunities across the FX space. Today, we will use pivot points, Fibonacci retracement and moving averages among other technical tools to uncover potential setups on various currency pairs.

A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator used to determine the overall trend of the market over different timeframes. Pivot points have predictive qualities, so it is considered a leading indicator to traders. The FXTM pivot point indicator can be downloaded HERE.

A Fibonacci retracement is a technical analysis tool, used to gain insight into where possible support and resistance levels may occur. For more information on Fibonacci, click HERE.

GBPUSD above weekly pivot

The GBPUSD has turned bullish on the daily charts. Prices are trading above the weekly pivot level and have already hit the weekly R1 level. A strong daily close above the weekly R1 could encourage an incline towards the weekly R2 based at 1.2718. Should 1.2718 prove to be a tough nut to crack, a decline back to 1.2410 could become reality.

EURUSD to test 23.6% Fibonacci?

Earlier in the week we questioned whether the EURUSD was in the process of a technical rebound or just another “dead cat bounce”.

Euro bulls were powered by fundamental drivers and improving economic data with prices hitting 1.0748. While prices remain bearish on the weekly charts, a retracement back towards the weekly 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.0825 could be on the cards. This resistance could provide bears a foundation to drag prices lower towards 1.0500 and lower.

EURGBP eyes weekly R2

After securing a solid daily close above the weekly R1 level at 0.8525, bulls seem to be eyeing the R2 level at 0.8600.

Technical indicators favour further upside as prices are trading above the 50, 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Average while the MACD trades to the upside. Strong support can be found at the 200-day SMA which is just below the weekly pivot level at 0.8456. A move below this level could signal the end of the daily bull trend with 0.8384 acting as a point of interest.

GBPJPY to resume downtrend?

The GBBJPY looks to resume its downtrend after pulling back from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Prices remain bearish on the daily charts as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs while the MACD trades to the downside. A strong breakdown below the 23.6% Fibonacci level of 158.60 could inspire a selloff towards 155.50 where the 200-day Simple Moving Average resides. Should prices push back above 160.50, an incline towards 162.00 could become reality.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

It feels like gold may be waiting for a fresh directional catalyst before making its next big move. Prices have failed to conquer the weekly R1 level of $1867.1 and could head back to the pivot found at $1827.14. This decline could be accelerated by an appreciating dollar and hawkish Fed minutes. Alternatively, a move above $1867.1 could trigger an incline towards $1889.95.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

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