Forex and Currency News

Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 130

Top Technical Tool: Japanese Candlesticks

How to spot trade setups using this tool

By Elliott Wave International

You may be familiar with an Open-High-Low-Close (OHLC) chart: comprised of vertical lines with small horizontal lines on each side. The top of each vertical line is the high and the bottom is the low. The small horizontal lines on either side represent the open and close for that period.

A Japanese Candlestick chart is similar. It allows you to zoom in and analyze a single period’s worth of price action.

Here’s an example of a Japanese Candlestick chart:

Japanese Candlestick charts employ the same data that OHLC price charts do except that the data is expressed differently. The real body is the range between the open and close, and appears as a small block. Shadows are the lines that extend upward and downward from this block, and represent the highs and lows.

Candlestick analysis can help alert you to reversals. Two bearish candlestick reversal patterns that Elliott Wave International’s (EWI) analysts find highly reliable are Bearish Engulfing patterns and Evening Star patterns. A Bearish Engulfing pattern means that the close is below the open, and the real body encompasses the real body of the prior candle. On a daily chart, it portends further decline for the next three to five days. An Evening Star pattern consists of three candles – a large bullish candlestick, a small-bodied candle and a red candle. It signals that the uptrend is nearing its end.

,p>You can combine Japanese Candlesticks with other tools in order to get a high-confidence view. This weekly continuation chart for the Canadian dollar combines a 20-period moving average to show that the trend is down — allowing you to focus on bearish reversal candlestick patterns to spot trading opportunities.

EWI’s senior instructor Jeffrey Kennedy notes that “combining these reversal patterns with moving averages makes them even more dynamic because they focus your attention in the direction of the larger trend.”

One of the best ways to get an edge in trading is to hand-pick a few select tools for your arsenal. Japanese Candlesticks are one such tool. In skilled hands, they can really show you the trend and alert you to trend reversals.

Free for a limited time, you can get full access to EWI’s premium course on candlesticks to help you add another arrow in your quiver. This course, “Japanese Candlesticks Made Simple and Effective” normally sells for $99.

You need to simply enter the Partner Referral Code CANDLES once you click on the link below and join free Club EWI to gain access to this free course.

Learn how to use candlesticks as a simple, effective trading and risk-management tool now (Partner Referral Code: CANDLES).

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline . EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Forex and Currency News Opinions

12 Jun

COT Week 23 Charts: Forex Speculators Positions mostly higher led by Canadian dollar & Swiss franc

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

COT Currencies market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for currency markets was the Canadian dollar (5,945 contracts) and the Swiss franc (4,326 contracts) with the British pound sterling (3,295 contracts), Japanese yen (2,793 contracts), Brazil real (1,389 contracts), Australian dollar (786 contracts), US Dollar Index (400 contracts) and Bitcoin (87 contracts) also showing a positive week.

Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Mexican peso (-2,723 contracts) and Euro (-1,729 contracts) with New Zealand dollar (-1,047 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators Notes:

US Dollar Index speculator bets have continued their upward climb in four out of the past five weeks as well as nine out of the past twelve weeks. USD Index remains in an extreme-bullish strength level and is very close (currently +37,938 contracts) to the highest net speculator position (+39,078 contracts on January 4th) of this recent bullish cycle, emphasizing the strong speculator bias.
The Euro speculator position saw a pullback this week (-1,729 contracts) after huge gains in the previous three weeks (+58,650 contracts). Speculator sentiment is still pretty strong currently (+50,543 contracts) despite a very weak exchange rate (EURUSD at 1.0524 to close the week) and weak outlook for the Eurozone economy with rising inflation.
British pound sterling speculator sentiment has crumbled in the past few months. The net speculator position managed to poke its head above its negative bias on February 15th with a total of +2,237 net contracts but sentiment has deteriorated since. From February 22nd to this week, speculator bets have dropped by a total of -73,047 contracts and recently hit a 139-week low on May 24th, the lowest level of speculator sentiment dating back to September of 2019.
Japanese yen speculator positions are the most bearish of the major currencies just under -100,000 contracts. The USDJPY exchange rate is at a 20-year high and there has been no sign that the BOJ is interest in raising interest rates while other central banks commit to higher rates. These factors seem to say that the rout of the yen will continue ahead for some time (but how far can it go?).
Commodity currency speculator bets are on the defensive lately. Australian dollar spec bets have fallen in five out of the past six weeks.
Canadian dollar bets are now in bearish territory for a 5th straight week.
New Zealand dollar speculator positions have declined in six out of the past seven weeks and the net position has now fallen to the lowest level since March of 2020

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Brazilian Real, US Dollar Index and Bitcoin are all in extreme-bullish levels at the current moment. On the opposite end of the extreme spectrum, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc are very weak in relative speculator sentiment and sit in the extreme-bearish levels.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the commodity currencies have been losing sentiment over the last six weeks. The Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the New Zealand dollar have all had changes of at least -18.8 percent in their strength scores with the New Zealand dollar leading the decline with a -33.3 percent drop in six weeks. The US Dollar Index, Euro and Mexican Peso have had small but rising scores over the past six weeks.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-07-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	65,163	100	37,938	91	-41,863	5	3,925	59
EUR	730,667	95	50,543	51	-88,189	51	37,646	37
GBP	258,623	76	-70,810	23	80,465	77	-9,655	36
JPY	266,054	100	-91,646	12	109,109	89	-17,463	18
CHF	49,794	41	-16,132	16	27,216	87	-11,084	20
CAD	167,373	42	-1,062	40	-13,401	58	14,463	59
AUD	166,422	57	-47,896	40	47,413	54	483	54
NZD	63,540	70	-19,771	38	22,681	65	-2,910	19
MXN	248,184	72	32,726	41	-38,117	57	5,391	66
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	72,371	70	46,705	96	-48,954	4	2,249	91
Bitcoin	10,990	58	490	93	-529	0	39	14

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 37,938 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,538 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	85.1	3.2	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.9	67.5	2.8
– Net Position:	37,938	-41,863	3,925
– Gross Longs:	55,460	2,090	5,780
– Gross Shorts:	17,522	43,953	1,855
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.0 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.2	5.0	59.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.0	-8.8	13.4

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 50,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,729 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,272 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.5	50.0	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.6	62.1	7.3
– Net Position:	50,543	-88,189	37,646
– Gross Longs:	230,248	365,628	90,978
– Gross Shorts:	179,705	453,817	53,332
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.5	51.0	36.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-11.9	22.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -70,810 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,105 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	74.1	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.8	43.0	12.1
– Net Position:	-70,810	80,465	-9,655
– Gross Longs:	34,618	191,742	21,602
– Gross Shorts:	105,428	111,277	31,257
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.0	77.3	35.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.9	-4.4	17.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -91,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,793 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,439 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	79.3	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.4	38.3	15.3
– Net Position:	-91,646	109,109	-17,463
– Gross Longs:	18,466	210,889	23,226
– Gross Shorts:	110,112	101,780	40,689
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.4	88.9	18.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.4	-2.8	3.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -16,132 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,326 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,458 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.2	69.3	18.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.6	14.6	41.1
– Net Position:	-16,132	27,216	-11,084
– Gross Longs:	2,609	34,494	9,378
– Gross Shorts:	18,741	7,278	20,462
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	4.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.6	86.9	20.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	2.4	6.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,062 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,945 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,007 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.5	44.2	22.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	52.2	13.7
– Net Position:	-1,062	-13,401	14,463
– Gross Longs:	39,288	74,044	37,463
– Gross Shorts:	40,350	87,445	23,000
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.2	57.6	58.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.8	14.2	9.7

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -47,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 786 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,682 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	59.9	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.8	31.4	14.2
– Net Position:	-47,896	47,413	483
– Gross Longs:	31,720	99,747	24,197
– Gross Shorts:	79,616	52,334	23,714
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.4	54.3	53.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.8	13.8	4.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -19,771 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,047 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,724 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	69.1	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.5	33.4	8.6
– Net Position:	-19,771	22,681	-2,910
– Gross Longs:	12,310	43,890	2,538
– Gross Shorts:	32,081	21,209	5,448
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.1	65.4	18.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.3	31.2	-4.3

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 32,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,449 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.0	35.4	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.8	50.8	1.2
– Net Position:	32,726	-38,117	5,391
– Gross Longs:	119,162	87,884	8,441
– Gross Shorts:	86,436	126,001	3,050
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.3	56.9	65.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.4	-6.1	8.3

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 46,705 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,389 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,316 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.1	13.5	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	81.2	2.3
– Net Position:	46,705	-48,954	2,249
– Gross Longs:	58,657	9,780	3,931
– Gross Shorts:	11,952	58,734	1,682
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.9 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.3	3.5	91.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-0.2	4.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 87 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 403 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.5	1.5	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	77.1	6.4	9.3
– Net Position:	490	-529	39
– Gross Longs:	8,959	169	1,063
– Gross Shorts:	8,469	698	1,024
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.2	21.6	13.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.5	-6.4	0.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

10 Jun

EURUSD plunged. Overview for 10.06.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD took a huge hit after the ECB meeting.

The major currency pair dropped to its 2-week lows. The current quote for the instrument is 1.0619.

The EUR was attacked from two fronts at the same time – the rally in US bond yields and the decisions made by the European Central Bank.

The “greenback” continues to get much support from the rally in US bond yields. Another reason is that the global investment world is trying to escape risks and the USD attracts a lot of attention as a “safe haven” asset.

As for the decisions made by the ECB, the situation is rather calm because they were expected, totally. The benchmark interest rate remained unchanged at zero; however, the regulator is planning to raise it by 25 basis points in July, while the next rate hike might occur in September. All further rate decisions will be made based on the latest statistics and forecasts.

By the way, the major QE (APP) programme will be closed by 1 July. It might be high time for the ECB to tighten its monetary policy.

Probably, market players were expecting the European regulator to be more “hawkish”, but alas.

Later today, investors’ attention will be focused on the Consumer Price Index report from the US, which might be one of the most important readings in anticipation of the US Fed’s upcoming meeting scheduled for the next week.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

10 Jun

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.06.10

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0716
Prev Close: 1.0617
% chg. over the last day: -0.93%

On Thursday, the European Central Bank reiterated its intention to raise interest rates at next month’s policy meeting and lowered its growth forecasts. The ECB announced its intention to raise key interest rates by 25 basis points at its July meeting. The extent of further hikes will depend on the changing trajectory of the medium-term inflation outlook. The ECB also lowered its growth forecasts and revised its inflation forecasts upward. Annual inflation is now expected to reach 6.8% in 2022, 3.5% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024. This is significantly higher than the March forecasts.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0627, 1.0611, 1.0568, 1.0509, 1.0445, 1.0379
Resistance levels: 1.0680, 1.0723, 1.0770, 1.0869

From a technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hour timeframe is still bullish. But the price fell yesterday after the ECB meeting, as investors initially expected a more aggressive rate hike scenario. Prices fell below the moving averages and reached the priority change level. Under such market conditions, investors can look for buy trades on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0627, but only with confirmation and short targets. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0680, but only after the additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0611 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.06.10:

– Eurozone Spanish Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
– US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2532
Prev Close: 1.2495
% chg. over the last day: -0.29%

The British Chambers of Commerce said yesterday that UK economic growth would stall and inflation would be 10%. At the same time, the UK’s economic growth in 2023 is projected to be the worst in almost all G20 countries (except Russia). This year’s expectations for investment growth have also been lowered from 3.5% to 1.8%. The group also said that the UK is threatened by rising interest rates and taxes as well as high inflation, which drives up gasoline prices and energy costs.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2477, 1.2433, 1.2398, 1.2283, 1.2199
Resistance levels: 1.2505, 1.2628, 1.2669, 1.2698, 1.2770

The GBP/USD currency pair trend is bullish on the hourly time frame. The MACD indicator became negative, and a slight seller’s pressure is still present. A wide price corridor is forming now, and the price is trading on its lower boundary. Under such market conditions, buy deals may be considered from the support level of 1.2477, but only with additional confirmation and short targets. Sell deals should be looked for from the resistance level of 1.2505, but with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2433 support level and fixes below, the mid-term downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 134.23
Prev Close: 134.37
% chg. over the last day: -0.10%

The fundamental picture of the USD/JPY currency pair remains the same. The Fed is tightening monetary policy, while the Bank of Japan, on the contrary, holds a soft policy. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is not expected to change its policy next week. Perhaps the only possibility of a significant bearish reversal of the USD/JPY pair will be a currency intervention by the Japanese government. However, Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki denied yesterday the rumors of currency intervention.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 133.00, 132.00, 131.00, 130.12, 129.48, 128.76, 128.10, 127.64
Resistance levels: 134.45, 135.16

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency is bullish. The price is growing steadily, and the MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but there are signs of price slowing down and divergence. It is best to wait for a slight correction, as the price has deviated strongly from the average lines. Buy trades can be considered from the support level of 133.00, but with confirmation. A resistance level of 135.16 is good for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 130.99, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2551
Prev Close: 1.2698
% chg. over the last day: +1.17%

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem talked mostly about households and the overheated real estate market in his speech yesterday. “Strong demand for additional living space, low-interest rates, inadequate supply, increased investor activity, and expectations of future price increases all led to a hot market during the pandemic. Housing prices have risen an average of about 50% since the pandemic began,” Macklem said. Also, he added that because inflation is well above the 2% target and Canada’s economy is overheated, the Bank’s number one priority is to get inflation back to the target level. For that reason, the Bank is aggressively raising interest rates.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2685, 1.2618, 1.2578, 1.2510
Resistance levels: 1.2736, 1.2765, 1.2807, 1.2893, 1.2953

The USD/CAD currency pair is bearish in terms of technical analysis. But the quotes increased sharply yesterday on the background of the dollar index growth. The MACD indicator is in the overbought area. The price has consolidated above the moving lines and approached the priority change level. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2618 or 1.2578, where the bullish initiative started. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2736, but also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates above 1.2736, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.06.10:

– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

10 Jun

ECB sinks EURUSD yet again!

By ForexTime

EURUSD was hurled about on Thursday by the European Central Bank’s latest policy signals (or rather, the lack thereof).

Most of the gains came immediately following the release of the ECB’s policy statement (more on that later).

However, as ECB President Christine Lagarde began addressing questions from the media at her press conference, EURUSD then unwound all of its gains and was dragged back below the 1.070 mark.

Before we dissect what did or did not come out of the ECB today, first, a quick refresher …

What is the ECB and what does it do?

The ECB is the central bank of all 19 countries that use the euro as its currency.

It’s main job, at least the most pressing one at hand, is to “maintain price stability”.

The means the ECB has to make sure that inflation remains “low, stable, and predictable”, so as to protect the purchasing power of European consumers.

Welp, that obviously hasn’t been happening lately.

Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index a.k.a. CPI, surged to a new record high of 8.1% in May.

That’s FOUR times higher than the ECB’s goal of having inflation average at 2%.

In short, the ECB has to act … pronto!

Here’s what the ECB announced today:

Even though the ECB left interest rates untouched at negative 0.5% at today’s meeting, it has cemented expectations for a 25 basis point hike at its next meeting in July.
That would be its first rate hike since July 2011.

The ECB is set to hike rates again at its September meeting.
However, policymakers left the door open for a larger 50 basis points hike (as opposed to usual adjustments of 25 basis point in one go) if Euro-zone inflation persists.

Recall that a central bank’s main tool for slowing inflation is to raise interest rates.

Initially, markets took the above-listed announcements as a “hawkish” signal.

“Hawkish” = the ECB is finally raring to go in raising rates!

It’s about time that the ECB joins the 60+ other central banks around the world that have already done so.

Also, the ECB announced today that it will stop net buying of assets by July.

As such, European bond yields climbed higher, with markets also ramping up their bets on how high the ECB will send its benchmark rate before 2022 is over.

Markets now expect that the ECB will hike by 150 basis points over the remainder of the year (as opposed to the 132 basis points that were priced in before today’s ECB meeting).

That implies a good chance of a larger-than-usual 50 basis point hike (as opposed to run-of-the-mill adjustments of 25 basis points at a time) in at least one of its remaining four policy meetings scheduled before 2023 rolls along.

Now, if we left things at that … all the above would imply a stronger euro.

And to be fair to euro bulls, the shared currency did strengthen … at first.

But things apparently didn’t end there.

Why did the euro then weaken against the US dollar?

Raising interest rates also carries with it potential negative spillover effects on the broader economy.

The ECB has to be wary about the bond yields in weaker member nations (consider the likes of Greece, Portugal, and Italy) rising too high too fast. That could pose severe financial risks to these weaker economies in the south.

Perhaps more worryingly for markets, during today’s press conference, ECB President Lagarde failed to address how the ECB specifically plans to constrain such “fragmentation risks”.

In fewer words, the ECB seemed content in kicking the can down the road, with policymakers only willing to address this potential problem later rather than sooner.

Hence, markets were willing to unravel the euro’s gains as their collective worries about the Eurozone’s economic prospects were left un-soothed.

So where does all this leave the euro?

EURUSD has all to do to break out of its downtrend that has persisted over the past 12 months.

Although the ECB is on the cusp of raising interest rates, a situation that typically heralds more currency gains, markets remain worried about the Eurozone’s economic prospects.

As such, the euro is likely to find it tough to recover meaningfully against the US dollar.

That is, unless the dark clouds dissipate over the EU’s economic outlook, noting of course there’s still a war raging off to its eastern border which is showing still no signs of abating.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

09 Jun

German Broker RoboMarkets Deutschland GMBH Launches the Provision of Its Dedicated Services to Professional Investors Only Under the RoboMarkets Pro Brand

June 9, 2022 – Limassol, Cyprus

RoboMarkets Deutschland GMBH, a BaFin-regulated broker registered in Frankfurt am Main, announces the start of the provision of its services dedicated only to professional clients. To implement this new strategy, the company has launched a new brand, RoboMarkets Pro, with which it will continue its operations in Germany.

RoboMarkets Pro will focus on working with professional clients who are interested in cooperating with an EU-regulated broker and are in demand of specific investment products and trading conditions. This is a business-driven decision to satisfy the requirements and demand of German clients and provide them with access to special conditions for some assets, including DE40, stocks, currency pairs, and over 12,000 other instruments to invest in with leverage up to 1:300. RoboMarkets Pro clients will also get free swaps until the end of 2022 and many other tools for professional traders.

Maximilian Felske, General Manager of RoboMarkets Pro, said: “Professional traders are currently the most neglected group of clients in the brokerage business – we are therefore putting extra effort into paying more attention to them and making their trading more comfortable. If you’re a frequent trader that can be qualified as professional, there are many more benefits to trading with an EU-regulated broker than trading offshore.”

In the middle of 2018, when ESMA changed regulations and restricted higher leverage values for CFDs, a big percentage of active traders were forced to go offshore. Some of them did so because they had no other choice, as they did not meet the criteria to be classified as professionals; while others who went offshore had to work much more actively than the EU-regulated ones due to the general trends in the market. Since then, a lot of things have changed, with more and more clients operating with large volumes of shares, CFDs, and currencies. Consequently, the general recovery of the economy and the rise in asset prices fueled the growth of investor portfolios, which have become comparable to professional ones, thus requiring a new approach to the provision of services.

“We notice this group of clients has a rising demand for high-leverage products. The company will therefore focus on satisfying this, serving them in the best way – starting from an onboarding process and continuing with specific conditions for the most popular products: CFDs on major indices, major currency pairs, etc. Also, we strongly and categorically believe that for any solid and established brokerage group, it’s much more comfortable to have traders that are active mostly in the EU-regulated entities, rather than traders who are trying to onboard offshore units on their own initiative. Traders also are much more protected and comfortable while trading with the EU-regulated units because of the security, variety of deposit/withdrawal methods, and localised customer support provided”, Maximilian Felske added.

About RoboMarkets Pro

RoboMarkets Pro is the brand name of RoboMarkets Deutschland GmbH. RoboMarkets Deutschland GmbH is a German broker that’s supervised by the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority under number 154068 and offers financial services to residents of EU/EEA countries. Find more detailed information about the Company’s products and activities on its website www.robomarkets.de.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

09 Jun

Murrey Math Lines 09.06.2022 (USDCHF, GOLD)

Article By RoboForex.com

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

In the H4 chart, after breaking the 200-day Moving Average, USDCHF is trading above to indicate a possible ascending tendency. In this case, the pair is expected to continue growing to reach the resistance at 5/8. However, this scenario may be cancelled if the price breaks the support at 4/8 to the downside. After that, the instrument may reverse and fall towards 3/8.

As we can see in the M15 chart, the pair may break the upside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue its growth.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, XAUUSD is trading below the 200-day Moving Average, thus indicating a descending tendency. In this case, the price is expected to test 3/8, break it, and then continue moving downwards to reach the support at 2/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the resistance at 4/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may reverse and grow towards 5/8.

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue trading downwards.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

09 Jun

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 09.06.2022 (XAUUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, XAUUSD has formed a Hammer reversal pattern not far from the support area. At the moment, the asset is reversing in the form of a new ascending impulse. In this case, the upside target may be the resistance level at 1885.50. At the same time, an opposite scenario implies that the price may correct to reach 1843.00 before resuming the ascending tendency.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, NZDUSD has formed a Hammer reversal pattern close to the support area. At the moment, the asset may reverse in the form of a new ascending impulse. In this case, the upside target may be at 0.6565. After that, the asset may break the resistance level and continue moving upwards. However, an alternative scenario implies that the price may correct to reach 0.6415 first and then resume its growth.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, GBPUSD has formed a Harami reversal pattern near the resistance level. At the moment, the pair is reversing in the form of a new descending impulse. If the price breaks the support area, it may continue falling. In this case, the downside target may be at 1.2400. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, according to which the asset may correct to reach 1.2600 before resuming the downtrend.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

09 Jun

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.06.09

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0701
Prev Close: 1.0716
% chg. over the last day: +0.14%

The long-awaited ECB monetary policy meeting will be held today. It is highly likely that the ECB will formally announce the end of net asset purchases and schedule the first interest rate hike for July. Analysts are just trying to predict which step of the increase the ECB will choose. But given the conservatism of European politicians and Lagarde’s credibility, the best option is to start with a 0.25% hike. Statistical data also speaks in favor of such a step. The European labor market remains strong, and GDP showed 0.6% growth for the last quarter, higher than the expected 0.3%.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0694, 1.0627, 1.0611, 1.0568, 1.0509, 1.0445, 1.0379
Resistance levels: 1.0738, 1.0770, 1.0786, 1.0869

From a technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The MACD indicator is back above zero, the price is trading above the moving averages, and there is a slight buying pressure. Under such market conditions, investors can look for buy trades on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0694, but only with confirmation and short targets. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0770, but only after the additional confirmation. The Euro may be very volatile today, so traders should be very attentive.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0611 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.06.09:

– Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 14:45 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 14:45 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2589
Prev Close: 1.2535
% chg. over the last day: -0.43%

May PMI data indicated another slowdown in the UK construction sector. Weak consumer confidence and worries about the outlook for the economy are holding back demand. Higher borrowing costs and strong inflationary pressures were also cited as factors likely to restrain growth over the next 12 months. At the moment, most UK economic indicators are showing a slowdown.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2498, 1.2433, 1.2398, 1.2283, 1.2199
Resistance levels: 1.2628, 1.2669, 1.2698, 1.2770

The GBP/USD currency pair trend is bullish on the hourly time frame. The MACD indicator has become inactive, but a slight buying pressure remains. A wide price corridor is forming now. Under such market conditions, buy deals may be considered from the support level of 1.2498, but only with additional confirmation and short targets. Sell deals should be looked for from the resistance level of 1.2628, but with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2433 support level and fixes below, the mid-term downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 132.54
Prev Close: 134.24
% chg. over the last day: +1.28%

The Japanese yen continues to decline against major currencies. The Fed is tightening monetary policy, while the Bank of Japan, on the contrary, is keeping policy soft. The US Treasury yields are rising and could rise even higher if US inflation data is worse than forecast on Friday. Rising US yields give confidence to the dollar index. Under current conditions, the Japanese yen is likely to remain depressed against the US dollar in the coming days and weeks. Perhaps the only possibility of a significant bearish reversal of the USD/JPY pair will be a currency intervention by the Japanese government.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 133.00, 132.00, 131.00, 130.12, 129.48, 128.76, 128.10, 127.64
Resistance levels: 135.16

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency is bullish. The price is steadily growing, and the MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but there are signs of overbought and divergence. It is best to wait for a slight correction, as the price has deviated strongly from the average lines. Buy trades can be considered from the support level of 133.00, but with confirmation. A resistance level of 135.16 is good for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 130.13, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2526
Prev Close: 1.2557
% chg. over the last day: +0.24%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it depends not only on the dollar index but also on the oil price movements. Oil prices jumped about 3% on Wednesday as gasoline demand in the US continues to grow despite high fuel prices. The fundamental picture is now favorable for both the US dollar and Canadian dollar to strengthen, so do not expect any medium-term trend movements here.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2510
Resistance levels: 1.2567, 1.2623, 1.2676, 1.2728, 1.2765, 1.2807, 1.2893, 1.2953

The USD/CAD currency pair is bearish in terms of technical analysis. The MACD indicator has become inactive again, and divergence is traced on several time frames. The price is forming a wide sideways. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2510, but it is better to wait for the bullish initiative. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2567 or 1.2623, but also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates above 1.2728, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.06.09:

– Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

09 Jun

The US 10-year bond yields exceeded 3%. ECB monetary policy meeting in focus

by JustForex

The broader tech sector was under pressure from rising Treasury yields yesterday, with 10-year bond yields exceeding 3% amid continued bets that the Federal Reserve will stay on course to raise rates to fight inflation. The disappointing comments triggered a wave of analyst downgrades on Wall Street. As a result, US stock indices fell yesterday. At the close of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.81%, while the S&P 500 (US500) lost 1.08%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.73% yesterday.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Wednesday that inflation will not be a decade-long problem for the United States and that the Biden administration’s spending on the COVID-19 bailout only “modestly” pushed prices up. On Tuesday, Yellen told the Senate Finance Committee that high inflation is likely to continue, although she hopes it will come down soon, and that the Biden administration will likely raise its budget forecast to 4.7% inflation for this year. Many House Republicans believe that the Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion COVID-19 bailout measure, known as the American Rescue Plan, is one of the main causes of high inflation.

Stock markets in Europe decreased yesterday. German DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.76%, French CAC 40 (FR 40) lost 0.80%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.01%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed yesterday down by 0.08%.

The long-awaited ECB monetary policy meeting will be held today. With a high probability, the ECB will officially announce the end of its net asset purchases and schedule its first interest rate hike for the month of July. The ECB is also likely to try to remain flexible to change rates if necessary and use other tools to provide liquidity support.

According to preliminary data from the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), in April 2022, the industrial production index increased by 0.7% compared to the previous month. In March 2022, there was a significant decrease of 3.7% compared to February 2022.

Oil prices jumped about 3% to a 13-week high on Wednesday as US gasoline demand continues to rise despite record gasoline prices amid expectations of higher oil demand in China and tight supply. The US crude inventories rose unexpectedly last week, while inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by a record amount as refinery capacity rose to its highest level since January 2020.

Asian markets closed yesterday in positive territory. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) jumped by 2.24%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) increased by 0.36%.

Australia’s sharp interest rate hike sent shockwaves across the country. At the same time, according to the big four banks, another massive increase will occur in just a few weeks. Australia faced an aggressive rate hike on Tuesday when the Reserve Bank announced that the official interest rate would jump from 0.35% to 0.85% in an attempt to curb rapidly rising inflation. The NAB expects interest rates to reach 2% by the end of this year, and ANZ expects two more hikes in 2022.

The Chinese authorities are winding down one of the longest lockdowns in recent years, positively affecting many industries (especially related to construction and infrastructure). At the same time, analysts are surprised that copper prices (which are highly dependent on the state of China’s economy) are falling again.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,115.77 −44.91 (−1.08%)

Dow Jones (US30) 32,910.90 −269.24 (−0.81%)

DAX (DE40) 14,445.99 −110.63 (−0.76%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,593.00 −5.93 (−0.078%)

USD Index 102.56 +0.24 (+0.24%)

Important events for today:

– Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 14:45 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 14:45 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.