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US Dollar Index Speculators push Bets to most bearish level since 2021

Open Interest Strength Levels vs Past 3-Years (Where are Traders putting positions in?)

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 16th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (28,071 contracts), the British Pound (27,025 contracts), the Brazilian Real (6,135 contracts), the Mexican Peso (4,261 contracts), the Swiss Franc (2,799 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (1,740 contracts) and Bitcoin (488 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-30,232 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-9,261 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-7,336 contracts) and with the EuroFX (-7,918 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

US Dollar Speculators push Bets to most bearish level since 2021

This week’s Currency Speculator positioning is highlighted by the number of big changes on the week. We had three currency positions changed by over 25,000 contracts and three others by 7,500 contracts or more.

Starting off, the U.S. Dollar Index positions fell this week by -7,336 net contracts. This was the second straight week of declines and the third out of the last four weeks. This was influenced by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to reduce interest rates on September 17th by 25 basis points. The overall U.S. Dollar Index positioning has now been in a negative or bearish standing for 14 consecutive weeks. This week’s current standing at -12,894 contracts is the most bearish level for the U.S. Dollar Index since February 23, 2021, a span of 238 weeks. At that time, the U.S. Dollar Index price was right around the 90.90 exchange rate, compared to today, where the U.S. Dollar Index resides at 97.27 to close out last week.

Next up, the biggest gain on the week was by the Australian Dollar with a rise by 28,071 contracts. Over the past three weeks, Australian Dollar contracts have risen by almost +50,000 positions after dropping to a -100,000 contract (close to a record bearish low) standing on August 26th. Overall, AUD speculator positions have been highly bearish since December of 2024 and have now been in negative territory for 40 consecutive weeks. The Australian Dollar exchange rate has risen by over 7% this year against the U.S. Dollar but remains under its 200-week moving average, with the AUD closing this week at 0.6602.

The British Pound Sterling had the next highest gain of the week as spec positions jumped by over 27,000 contracts. This week’s gain followed three weeks of declines as well as decreases in eight out of the previous nine weeks. Overall, the British Pound Sterling has now been in a bearish position for eight consecutive weeks but the strong rebound this week brings the overall net standing for the British Pound Sterling to a small bearish position of -6,580 net contracts. In terms of exchange rates, the British Pound Sterling has been up by 10.33% against the U.S. Dollar this year as the British Pound closed out the week at 1.3472.

The Japanese Yen saw the largest decline this week by a -30,232 net contract shortfall. The yen positions had started out the year of 2025 on a sharp incline but has been trending the other way and has been quickly shedding its bullish positions with declines in eight out of the past 12 weeks for a loss of -70,866 net contracts over the past 12 weeks. The Japanese Yen position has eroded after reaching an all-time high in April at a total of +179,212 net contracts. This week the overall net position came in at a +61,411 net contracts, the lowest level of the past 30 weeks. The Japanese Yen exchange rate does remain higher against the U.S. Dollar by approximately 8% on the year but has cooled off and has been sliding since hitting a yearly high in April.

Brazilian Real leads FX Price Changes this week

Leading this week’s currency market price changes was the Brazilian Real, which advanced by 0.56%. The Real has now been up by approximately 2% over the last 30 days and is higher now by 5.86% over the past 90 days.

The Canadian Dollar comes up next with a 0.41% increase on the week. The ‘Loonie’ Dollar has turned positive over the past 90 days with a 1.41% rise. The Mexican Peso follows next with a 0.27% edge higher on the week. The Peso has advanced by approximately 6% over the past 90 days.

The U.S. Dollar Index edged up by 0.16% this week, followed by the Euro and the Swiss Franc, which were virtually unchanged but up by 0.09% each for the past 5 days.

The Japanese Yen dipped by -0.24% on the week, followed by the British Pound Sterling, which saw a slide by -0.67%. The Australian Dollar was lower by -0.84%, while Bitcoin declined by -1.20%. And finally, the New Zealand Dollar saw the largest shortfall on the week with a -1.68% decline.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Brazilian Real & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Brazilian Real (95 percent) and the EuroFX (74 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (69 percent), Japanese Yen (68 percent) and the Bitcoin (53 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores is the British Pound (23 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (16.1 percent)
EuroFX (73.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (76.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (23.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (9.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (67.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (75.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (48.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (42.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (44.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (43.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (40.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (20.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (43.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (54.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (68.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (66.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (95.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (90.1 percent)
Bitcoin (53.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (42.8 percent)

Bitcoin & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Bitcoin (32 percent) and the Brazilian Real (31 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (23 percent), the British Pound (14 percent) and the Mexican Peso (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-14 percent), US Dollar Index (-13 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-12.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-3.1 percent)
EuroFX (0.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (0.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-11.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (-5.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (0.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (2.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-9.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-13.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-16.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (23.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-0.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-15.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-7.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (5.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (8.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (30.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (26.1 percent)
Bitcoin (32.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (11.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -12,894 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,558 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	54.4	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.9	19.3	8.9
– Net Position:	-12,894	13,534	-640
– Gross Longs:	12,491	20,961	2,776
– Gross Shorts:	25,385	7,427	3,416
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	21.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.8	16.2	-31.4

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 117,759 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,918 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 125,677 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	57.3	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	76.9	5.3
– Net Position:	117,759	-167,380	49,621
– Gross Longs:	253,261	490,481	94,620
– Gross Shorts:	135,502	657,861	44,999
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.6	24.2	79.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.7	-1.3	4.3

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,580 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 27,025 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,605 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.5	48.0	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.3	50.2	10.9
– Net Position:	-6,580	-5,099	11,679
– Gross Longs:	80,796	112,620	37,259
– Gross Shorts:	87,376	117,719	25,580
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.1	63.9	86.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.8	-16.2	23.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 61,411 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -30,232 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,643 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.0	31.8	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.5	54.6	11.2
– Net Position:	61,411	-68,338	6,927
– Gross Longs:	161,673	95,157	40,523
– Gross Shorts:	100,262	163,495	33,596
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.6	33.7	58.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.7	4.8	3.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -26,040 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,799 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,839 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	68.9	21.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.0	29.6	24.8
– Net Position:	-26,040	28,198	-2,158
– Gross Longs:	6,235	49,405	15,606
– Gross Shorts:	32,275	21,207	17,764
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.1	45.5	69.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.7	-8.0	15.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -107,177 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,740 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -108,917 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	82.1	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.0	39.3	11.1
– Net Position:	-107,177	114,181	-7,004
– Gross Longs:	20,975	218,993	22,611
– Gross Shorts:	128,152	104,812	29,615
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.0	60.5	23.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.7	12.9	-4.4

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -51,160 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 28,071 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,231 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	53.0	19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.1	26.8	12.5
– Net Position:	-51,160	40,651	10,509
– Gross Longs:	40,276	82,083	29,912
– Gross Shorts:	91,436	41,432	19,403
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.0	54.2	76.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.0	-25.0	25.0

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -18,004 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	70.5	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.5	31.0	10.3
– Net Position:	-18,004	19,416	-1,412
– Gross Longs:	9,251	34,634	3,655
– Gross Shorts:	27,255	15,218	5,067
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.7	56.0	34.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.2	14.9	-1.1

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 77,993 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,732 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.7	34.0	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	79.5	1.5
– Net Position:	77,993	-82,741	4,748
– Gross Longs:	112,395	61,957	7,553
– Gross Shorts:	34,402	144,698	2,805
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.5	31.7	49.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.1	-5.7	6.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 62,222 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,135 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,087 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.6	31.4	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.8	86.1	0.8
– Net Position:	62,222	-65,752	3,530
– Gross Longs:	72,832	37,805	4,483
– Gross Shorts:	10,610	103,557	953
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	4.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.0	3.9	40.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.5	-30.4	1.7

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 20 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 488 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -468 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.5	4.0	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	82.4	5.6	3.1
– Net Position:	20	-453	433
– Gross Longs:	23,788	1,151	1,323
– Gross Shorts:	23,768	1,604	890
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.1	46.5	59.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.2	-36.7	6.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

19 Sep

EUR/USD Corrects Lower in Post-Fed Pause

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair extended its decline on Friday, retreating further following the US Federal Reserve’s September meeting. The US dollar found support as the Fed’s rhetoric proved less dovish than markets had anticipated.

While the central bank cut rates by 25 basis points and signalled two additional cuts in 2025, it projected only one further reduction in 2026, tempering expectations for more aggressive easing. Chair Jerome Powell described the decision as a “risk management” response to a softening labour market, emphasising that the Fed saw “no need to rush” into further moves.

The dollar drew additional strength from initial jobless claims data, which fell to 231,000 – below forecasts of 241,000 and well under the previous week’s revised figure of 264,000.

Earlier in the week, eurozone inflation held steady at 2.0% year-on-year in August, unchanged from July and slightly better than the 2.1% forecast.

Despite this week’s pullback, the broader trend for EUR/USD remains bullish.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD formed a consolidation range around 1.1800 USD before breaking downward. The pair is now extending its decline towards 1.1680 USD. Once this target is reached, a corrective rebound towards 1.1800 USD may follow. The MACD indicator supports this view: its signal line remains above zero but is trending firmly lower, reflecting building near-term selling pressure.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair completed a downward move to 1.1777 USD and a corrective bounce to 1.1845 USD. The market is now forming a new downward structure towards 1.1720 USD, with further downside potential to 1.1680 USD. A brief correction towards 1.1800 USD is possible before any renewed decline towards 1.1630 USD, and eventually 1.1550 USD. The Stochastic oscillator confirms the near-term bearish momentum, with its signal line below 50 and pointing downward towards 20.

Conclusion

EUR/USD is undergoing a technical correction after the Fed tempered expectations for aggressive easing. While the dollar has found near-term support, the euro’s underlying fundamentals remain steady, with inflation under control and growth concerns limited. The pair’s broader uptrend is likely to resume once the current corrective phase concludes, though a deeper retracement cannot be ruled out if US data continues to surprise to the upside. Traders will be watching next week’s eurozone PMI and US PCE data for fresh directional catalysts.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

18 Sep

GBP Holds Near Highs as Market Awaits BoE Decision

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair stabilised around 1.3626 USD on Thursday, following a highly volatile session on Wednesday. The pair remains close to its highest level in over ten weeks, as markets await the Bank of England’s policy decision later today.

The BoE is widely expected to maintain rates at 5.25% (note: corrected from 4% based on current BoE rate) and may signal a reduction in its £100 billion annual bond-purchase program.

Recent data showed UK inflation held steady at 3.8% in August, matching both forecasts and July’s 18-month high. Labour market figures were broadly in line with expectations: unemployment remained at 4.7%, wage growth (ex-bonuses) came in at 4.8% (4.7% including bonuses), and payrolls declined by 8,000.

Market expectations for a BoE rate cut remain subdued, with only a one-in-three chance priced in for a reduction by December.

Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve delivered a widely anticipated 25-basis-point cut yesterday, with traders now expecting at least two additional cuts by the end of 2025.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD completed an upward move to 1.3723 USD, followed by a downward impulse to 1.3620 USD. The pair is now likely to form a consolidation range around this level. A break below 1.3620 USD could initiate a decline towards 1.3528 USD. A corrective rebound towards 1.3620 USD may then follow. Renewed selling pressure could subsequently drive the pair towards 1.3500 USD, with further downside potential to 1.3277 USD. The MACD indicator supports this outlook, with its signal line positioned above zero but turning decisively downward.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair has completed a downward impulse to 1.3620 USD. A consolidation phase is expected around this level. A break lower would likely trigger the first wave of a new downtrend towards 1.3530 USD. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this near-term bearish view, as its signal line lies below 50 and is trending downward towards 20.

Conclusion

The pound is trading near multi-week highs as markets await guidance from the BoE. While UK inflation remains elevated, softening labour data and a dovish Fed have limited the GBP’s upside. Technically, the pair appears vulnerable to a near-term correction, particularly if the BoE maintains a cautious tone. Today’s decision and accompanying communications will be critical in determining whether cable extends its rally or enters a deeper corrective phase.

Disclaimer:

Financial News Forex and Currency News

17 Sep

Canadian dollar declines after inflation data. Investors take profits ahead of the Fed meeting

By JustMarkets

By the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.27%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.13%. The Nasdaq (US100) Technology Index closed down 0.07%. US stocks edged lower on Tuesday as investors took profits ahead of the highly anticipated September Federal Reserve meeting. Traders widely expect the Fed to cut the rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday, which would be the first cut since December. Meanwhile, positive retail sales data for August signaled resilient consumer spending despite stagnant inflation and a softening labor market. Investors were also watching developments between the US and China. Progress on trade and a new TikTok framework boosted sentiment and contributed to a rise in Oracle shares.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to 1.38 per US dollar in September, reaching monthly highs after domestic data reinforced expectations that the Bank of Canada would take a cautious approach to rate cuts. The core Consumer Price Index in August rose by 1.9% year-on-year – below the consensus of 2.0%. However, key metrics, specifically the average and median values, remain near 3.0%, indicating persistent underlying inflation after excluding volatile goods. These readings, along with signs of economic resilience, suggest that the Bank of Canada may keep policy restrictive for longer and decrease the likelihood of a rapid easing cycle; markets now expect only a modest 25 basis point rate cut at the next meeting.

European stock markets were mostly lower on Tuesday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 1.77%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.00%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) declined by 1.51%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negatively on Tuesday at 0.88%. On Tuesday, European stocks closed sharply lower, pressured by aggressive losses in the financial sector. Traders were cautious ahead of key monetary policy decisions from the Fed and the Bank of England this week, as well as trade talks between China and the US, while US President Trump begins his visit to the UK today. On the data front, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for Germany surprisingly rose, while UK employment data continued to signal a slowdown in the labor market.

WTI crude oil prices rose more than 1.5% on Tuesday to $64.5 per barrel, continuing to climb on risks related to Russian supply. Ukraine launched another strike on oil refineries as part of a broader campaign targeting Russian energy infrastructure, including the Primorsk export hub. Goldman Sachs estimates that recent attacks have taken about 300,000 barrels per day of Russian refining capacity offline in August and early September. Reuters also reported that pipeline operators are restricting oil storage for producers, which is exacerbating the problem. Meanwhile, the EU is considering new sanctions, including against firms in India and China that facilitate Moscow’s oil trade.

The US natural gas prices rose to $3/MMBtu, the highest level in a week, amid falling production. The average output in September was 107.4 billion cubic feet per day, down from August’s record high of 108.3. However, inventory growth was limited by weak demand prognoses, ample storage capacity, and stagnant LNG exports. Gas inventories are about 6% above the seasonal average, and injections are expected to continue.

Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.30%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.50%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 0.03%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.28%.

On Wednesday, the New Zealand dollar fell to $0.597, ending a two-day rally as traders showed caution ahead of Thursday’s GDP data release. The economy is expected to have contracted by 0.3% in the June quarter, which would reinforce the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s dovish outlook. Markets now expect a 25 basis point rate cut at the October meeting, with rates expected to fall to 2.50% by early 2026.

The People’s Bank of China has released a draft rule aimed at easing restrictions on gold imports, proposing to expand the use of “reusable permits,” extend their validity from six to nine months, remove restrictions on use, and allow more ports to clear bullion. These measures also apply to exports, though permits are still rarely issued due to strict capital controls and the People’s Bank of China’s drive to build reserves. The move comes as China continues to buy gold for the ninth consecutive month, increasing its reserves to approximately 73.96 million troy ounces in August 2025.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,606.76 −8.52 (−0.13%)

Dow Jones (US30) 45,757.90 −125.55 (−0.27%)

DAX (DE40) 23,329.24 −419.62 (−1.77%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,195.66 −81.37 (−0.88%)

USD Index 96.65 −0.65 (−0.67%)

News feed for: 2025.09.17

Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 16:45 (GMT+3);
Canada BoC Rate Statement at 16:45 (GMT+3);
Canada BoC Press Conference at 17:30 (GMT+3);
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+3);
US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+3);
US FOMC Economic Projections at 21:00 (GMT+3);
US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

17 Sep

EUR/USD Hits Four-Year High: All Eyes on the Fed

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair surged to 1.1854 USD on Wednesday, reaching its highest level since September 2021. Investors are positioning ahead of the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated interest rate decision, due later today.

Markets are almost fully pricing in a 25-basis-point cut, with 67 basis points of cumulative easing expected by year-end. These expectations are reinforced by recent labour market softening, despite inflation remaining above the Fed’s 2% target.

Significant attention will also be focused on the updated quarterly dot plot, which may offer critical insights into the future path of monetary policy.

The trading session is expected to be highly volatile.

On the data front, US retail sales rose in August for the third consecutive month, underscoring the resilience of consumer spending over the summer.

Broad-based USD weakness has driven the dollar lower against nearly all major currencies.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD formed a consolidation range around 1.1762 USD before breaking upward to complete an impulsive move to 1.1877 USD. The pair now appears poised for a corrective decline towards 1.1762 USD. This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator: although the signal line remains above zero, it has reached overextended levels. This suggests that a near-term pullback is likely.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair completed its ascent to 1.1877 USD and is now forming a consolidation range below this level. A downward breakout is expected, with an initial decline towards 1.1762 USD likely. A brief rebound towards 1.1820 USD may follow. Selling pressure could then resume, with targets at 1.1630 USD and potentially 1.1550 USD. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this bearish near-term bias, with its signal line positioned below 50 and trending downward towards 20.

Conclusion

The euro’s rally to multi-year highs reflects broad USD weakness and elevated expectations for Fed easing. However, technical indicators suggest the pair is overextended and due for a correction. Today’s Fed decision – particularly the tone of the statement and updated dot plot – will be crucial in determining whether this pullback deepens or becomes a buying opportunity. Traders should prepare for significant volatility following the release.

Disclaimer:

Financial News Forex and Currency News

16 Sep

USD/JPY Declines: Yen Gains Safe-Haven Appeal

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair fell for a second consecutive session on Tuesday, with the Japanese yen strengthening to around 147.19 JPY per US dollar. The move reflects broad-based USD weakness and growing expectations of imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Markets are now pricing in a 25-basis-point cut from the Fed this week, with a total of 67 basis points’ easing anticipated through the remainder of the year. These expectations are reinforced by recent data pointing to a cooling labour market and moderating inflation.

The Bank of Japan is also set to meet this week and is widely expected to hold rates steady at 0.5%. Meanwhile, policymakers will need to evaluate the potential impact of US tariff policies on Japan’s export-dependent economy.

Upcoming economic releases are likely to show continued softness: both exports and imports are forecast to remain weak, while core CPI is expected to slow to 2.7% – the lowest level since November 2024.

Amid elevated global volatility, the yen is demonstrating relative strength, underscoring its role as a safe-haven asset.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY continues to trade within a consolidation range centred around 147.33 JPY, with recent extensions towards 148.14 JPY on the upside and 146.90 JPY on the downside. A further decline towards 146.30 JPY is possible. Should this level be reached, a corrective bounce towards 147.33 JPY may occur before another leg down towards 145.30 JPY. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook, with its signal line positioned below zero and pointing firmly downward.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair is following a clear downward move structure towards 146.76 JPY. The market has broken below its recent consolidation range, confirming the bearish momentum. Further declines towards 146.76 JPY are expected, with an extension towards 144.44 JPY likely. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, as its signal line remains below 50 and is trending downward towards 20, reflecting strengthening selling pressure.

Conclusion

The yen is strengthening amid broad USD softness and safe-haven demand, with all eyes on this week’s Fed and BoJ meetings. While the BoJ is likely to remain on hold, the Fed’s dovish shift could further weigh on USD/JPY in the near term. Technically, the pair exhibits clear bearish momentum, with key support levels in focus. A break below 146.30 JPY may accelerate the decline towards deeper supports.

Disclaimer:

Financial News Forex and Currency News

14 Sep

Large Speculators push Mexican Peso Bets to a 65-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 9th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real & Japanese Yen

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (22,918 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (18,385 contracts), the EuroFX (6,085 contracts), the Australian Dollar (3,452 contracts), the Mexican Peso (719 contracts), Bitcoin (434 contracts) and the Canadian Dollar (59 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Swiss Franc (-2,951 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,269 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-537 contracts) and with the British Pound (-465 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Large Speculators push Mexican Peso Bets to a 65-week high

Highlighting the currency speculator positions this week is the increasingly bullish Mexican Peso sentiment. Speculators boosted their bullish bets for the Mexican Peso this week for a fourth consecutive week and for the seventh time out of the past eight weeks. The Peso position has now added +23,610 net contracts over these past eight weeks and this bullish momentum has brought the current net standing to a total of +73,732 net bullish contracts.

This marks the highest level for the Mexican Peso contracts in the past 65 weeks, dating back to June 11th of 2024 when the net position was last over +100,000 contracts. The Peso positioning was strong throughout the first half of 2024 with 15 consecutive weeks of contracts over the +100,000 contract level. Peso bets then started to cool off mid-2024 and steadily decreased to an overall negative net position on January 21st of 2025. Since then, contracts have rebounded, improved and increased to this week’s 65-week high.

Despite the increased bullishness for the Peso, the strength score is still just modestly high at 66% of its three-year range. This shows that if bullish momentum continues, there is plenty of room to go before a bullish extreme is reached.

The Mexican Peso position in the exchange markets versus the US dollar has been on an uptrend since the beginning of the year. The Peso has risen through its 200-week moving average and is currently up 13.10% against the US Dollar so far.

Bitcoin leads Price Performance for the Week

The currency market price performance this week was led by Bitcoin, which rose by 4.41% for the past 5 days. Bitcoin is now up by 13% over the last 90 days.

Next was the Australian Dollar, which increased by 1.50% this week. The Australian Dollar is up by 3% over the last 30 days and is higher by 3.74% over the last 90 days. The Mexican Peso came in next with a 1.47% gain and the Peso has risen by 5.57% over the past 90 days.

The New Zealand Dollar advanced by 1.16% over the last five days. The Brazilian Real saw a gain of 0.86% while the Real is now up by approximately 6% in the last 90 days.

The British Pound Sterling came in next with a 0.45% rise, followed by the Swiss Franc, which was higher by 0.26%. The Euro saw prices edge up by just 0.16% and the Canadian Dollar was virtually unchanged with a 0.05% advance.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index was virtually unchanged, down by -0.07%, while the Japanese Yen was just a tick lower with a -0.09% decline.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Brazilian Real & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Brazilian Real (90 percent) and the EuroFX (77 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Japanese Yen (76 percent), Mexican Peso (66 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (4 percent) and the British Pound (11 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (3.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (5.0 percent)
EuroFX (76.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (74.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (10.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (11.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (75.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (70.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (42.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (48.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (43.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (43.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (20.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (17.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (54.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (57.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (66.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (66.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (90.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (71.5 percent)
Bitcoin (42.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (33.6 percent)

Brazilian Real & Bitcoin top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (26 percent) and Bitcoin (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Mexican Peso (9 percent) was the next highest positive mover in the 3-Year trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-11 percent), Swiss Franc (-10 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-3.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-3.9 percent)
EuroFX (0.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-2.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-11.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-17.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (0.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-9.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (-9.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (0.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-16.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-19.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (-0.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-1.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-7.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-3.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (8.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (8.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (26.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (5.9 percent)
Bitcoin (11.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (20.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -5,558 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -537 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,021 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.5	34.9	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.1	17.5	9.7
– Net Position:	-5,558	6,642	-1,084
– Gross Longs:	19,192	13,288	2,604
– Gross Shorts:	24,750	6,646	3,688
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.7	99.8	15.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	6.4	-18.9

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 125,677 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,085 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 119,592 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 20.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	53.4	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	73.9	5.3
– Net Position:	125,677	-179,647	53,970
– Gross Longs:	258,049	468,861	100,417
– Gross Shorts:	132,372	648,508	46,447
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.6	20.0	88.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-1.3	3.3

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -33,605 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,140 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	57.1	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.6	47.9	9.2
– Net Position:	-33,605	29,784	3,821
– Gross Longs:	74,849	184,370	33,639
– Gross Shorts:	108,454	154,586	29,818
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.8	78.9	70.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.0	7.1	10.8

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 91,643 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 18,385 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,258 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.0	38.4	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	62.9	8.5
– Net Position:	91,643	-100,442	8,799
– Gross Longs:	180,724	157,854	43,537
– Gross Shorts:	89,081	258,296	34,738
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.9	25.6	63.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.7	-2.0	12.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -28,839 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,951 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,888 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	74.1	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.1	44.8	18.4
– Net Position:	-28,839	30,815	-1,976
– Gross Longs:	6,989	77,874	17,332
– Gross Shorts:	35,828	47,059	19,308
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.5	49.7	70.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.7	4.1	9.7

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -108,917 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 59 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -108,976 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.5	77.2	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.2	31.1	12.6
– Net Position:	-108,917	115,041	-6,124
– Gross Longs:	18,704	192,465	25,216
– Gross Shorts:	127,621	77,424	31,340
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.1	60.9	26.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	16.6	-15.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -79,231 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,452 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -82,683 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.5	67.8	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.5	32.6	9.2
– Net Position:	-79,231	73,221	6,010
– Gross Longs:	32,200	141,051	25,129
– Gross Shorts:	111,431	67,830	19,119
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.1	73.6	64.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.8	-1.1	7.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -8,743 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,474 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.6	53.2	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.8	38.0	8.0
– Net Position:	-8,743	10,841	-2,098
– Gross Longs:	15,479	38,065	3,637
– Gross Shorts:	24,222	27,224	5,735
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.4	46.3	26.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	10.9	-38.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 73,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 719 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,013 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.4	41.7	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	78.1	1.5
– Net Position:	73,732	-77,535	3,803
– Gross Longs:	107,503	89,064	7,051
– Gross Shorts:	33,771	166,599	3,248
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.4	34.4	43.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-9.0	2.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 56,087 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 22,918 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,169 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.9	32.0	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.7	87.9	0.8
– Net Position:	56,087	-60,098	4,011
– Gross Longs:	67,641	34,405	4,856
– Gross Shorts:	11,554	94,503	845
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	5.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.1	8.4	43.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.1	-26.5	5.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 434 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -902 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	85.7	4.0	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	87.4	3.8	3.2
– Net Position:	-468	56	412
– Gross Longs:	23,075	1,081	1,263
– Gross Shorts:	23,543	1,025	851
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.8	57.9	58.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.4	-10.6	-3.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

12 Sep

EUR/USD Digests Data Ahead of Fed Decision

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair held steady around 1.1727 USD on Friday, as the US dollar remained under pressure following the release of inflation data that largely met expectations. The figures reinforce the Federal Reserve’s scope to ease monetary policy amid growing signs of labour market softening.

The US August inflation report showed consumer prices rose 0.4% month-on-month, slightly above the forecast of 0.3%, while the annual rate came in at 2.9%, matching expectations. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims increased by 27,000 to 263,000 – the highest level since 2021 – underscoring emerging weakness in the employment sector.

Interest rate futures now indicate a 93% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s 17 September meeting. Market speculation around a more aggressive 50-basis-point reduction is also gradually building.

Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank left its key rate unchanged at 2.0% for the second consecutive meeting. In political developments, the US and Japan issued a joint statement emphasising that exchange rates should be market-determined and that excessive volatility is undesirable.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has completed an upward move towards 1.1735 USD. A sustained break above this resistance level signals a continuation of the broader uptrend. However, a short-term pullback toward this level – now potentially acting as support – cannot be ruled out.The MACD indicator supports further gains: both the histogram and signal line remain above zero and are rising, confirming bullish momentum. The primary outlook favours an extension towards 1.1810 USD, with a further target at 1.1870 USD, though intermittent corrections may occur.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair is testing resistance and showing signs of consolidation. A clear break above 1.1735 USD may trigger another leg higher. The Stochastic oscillator is testing the 80 level, suggesting strong upward momentum remains intact. The near-term upside target is 1.1810 USD.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains well-supported as markets price in growing Fed dovishness, driven by softening labour data and stable inflation. With the ECB maintaining a steady stance and risk sentiment cautiously optimistic, the pair looks poised to extend gains, pending next week’s Fed decision. Technically, the path of least resistance appears upward, though a brief retracement may offer entry opportunities ahead of further advances.

Disclaimer:

Financial News Forex and Currency News

11 Sep

GBP/USD Treads Water Ahead of Key Central Bank Decisions

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair traded in a tight range around 1.3524 USD on Thursday, with movement constrained as markets await key US inflation data and pivotal policy meetings from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England next week.

The pound has managed to recover from a sell-off earlier in September, when concerns over UK fiscal sustainability pushed the currency to monthly lows and propelled long-term government bond yields to levels last seen in the late 1990s.

Sterling is supported by investor expectations that the Bank of England will refrain from aggressive rate cuts, especially as other major central banks, including the Fed, move towards easing. Another supportive factor is the UK’s elevated inflation, which remains the highest among G7 nations, with particularly persistent price growth in services and wages.

Recent data indicate the economy is proving resilient despite lingering inflationary pressures and a softening labour market. In this context, Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces mounting pressure to maintain fiscal stability without breaching the government’s borrowing rules. The upcoming budget statement in November will be closely watched.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD is continuing a corrective decline from the recent high near 1.3584 USD. The pair may extend this move towards support around 1.3420 USD. Once the correction is complete, a rebound from this level could initiate a new upward move, with initial resistance at 1.3548 USD, followed by a retest of 1.3584 USD. The MACD indicator supports this view: although the histogram and signal line remain above zero, both are declining, suggesting near-term downward momentum within a broader consolidation.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair has tested 1.3517 USD and continues its corrective phase. The immediate downside target is support at 1.3485 USD. A break below this level could extend the correction towards deeper supports. The Stochastic oscillator reinforces this near-term bearish bias, with its signal line hovering near 20.0, indicating oversold conditions, while continuing to trend lower.

Conclusion

GBP/USD is trading cautiously as markets brace for next week’s central bank decisions. While the pound remains supported by relatively hawkish BoE expectations and high inflation, its near-term direction will likely be determined by the Fed’s tone and upcoming UK fiscal developments. Technically, the pair is undergoing a short-term correction, which may present buying opportunities if key support levels hold.

Disclaimer:

Financial News Forex and Currency News

10 Sep

USD/JPY Pauses After Volatility: Assessing the Path Ahead

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair consolidated around 147.32 JPY on Wednesday, following sharp fluctuations earlier in the week. Market participants are awaiting key US inflation data, which could significantly influence the Federal Reserve’s policy decision next week.

The recent downward revision of US employment statistics has strengthened the case for earlier monetary easing by the Fed. Some investors are even pricing in the possibility of a more aggressive 50-basis-point rate cut.

In Japan, a private survey revealed that business sentiment in the manufacturing sector reached a three-year high, driven mainly by reduced trade risks after the conclusion of a tariff agreement with the US.

On the political front, markets are monitoring the aftermath of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation, which resulted from deepening divisions within the ruling party and political pressure following last year’s election defeat.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY continues to develop an upward wave within an ascending channel. The next likely target is the upper channel boundary near 148.40 JPY. Following this ascent, the pair may enter a corrective phase. The primary upside targets remain 149.00 JPY, with a further objective at 150.75 JPY. The MACD indicator supports this outlook: the histogram remains below zero but has begun to rise, while the signal line has moved above the histogram and is turning upward, signalling building bullish momentum.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair is testing the 147.50 JPY resistance level. A break above this level could open the way for further gains towards 148.40 JPY. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, as its signal lines are rising towards the 50.0 level. A clear break above 50.0 would signal strengthening upward momentum.

Conclusion

USD/JPY is taking a breather after recent volatility as traders await crucial US inflation data. Weak figures could reinforce expectations of Fed easing, potentially weakening the dollar further. Technically, the pair retains a near-term bullish bias within the ascending channel, though a corrective pullback remains possible after testing higher resistance levels.

Disclaimer:

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