Forex and Currency News

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EUR/USD Holds Near Seven-Month High Amid Speculation on Fed Rate Cuts

Euro vs dollar maintains its position close to a seven-month peak, trading at 1.1077 on Tuesday. The US dollar’s weakening continues, largely driven by market expectations of an imminent interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve next month. Attention is also geared towards Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s upcoming remarks at the Jackson-Hole symposium on Friday.

Market participants anticipate Powell will signal the necessity for a rate reduction. The nuances of his speech will be critically evaluated to discern whether the Fed is leaning towards a moderate 25 basis point cut or a more substantial reduction in September.

While there’s a possibility Powell might opt for cautious language to provide the Fed with flexibility to adjust the pace of rate cuts based on future economic data, current conditions seem conducive for at least a 25bp reduction in borrowing costs next month. The Fed could then decide to accelerate cuts depending on subsequent economic indicators.

Until further data becomes available, the US dollar might remain under pressure. So far, EUR/USD has appreciated by 2.4% since the start of August, marking the most robust monthly gain since November of the previous year.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

The EUR/USD has established a consolidation pattern around 1.1020, breaking upwards to reach 1.1080. This growth trajectory appears to have peaked, and the market is now likely to form a consolidation range at these high levels. A downward breakout is anticipated, potentially driving the pair towards 1.0980. A breach of this level could extend losses to 1.0880. The MACD indicator supports this view, with its signal line positioned above zero but poised to decline, suggesting a potential reversal of the current EUR/USD price forecast.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD is currently forming a consolidation range near 1.1080, with a possible expansion to 1.1090. A downward departure from this range could target 1.1020. Following this, a corrective move to 1.1050 may occur before the pair resumes its descent to 1.0990 and potentially extends to 1.0950. This bearish outlook is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, which is near the 80 level and anticipated to drop towards 20, indicating a potential decline.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

19 Aug

AUD/USD climbs as RBA maintains firm stance on interest rates

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The Australian dollar (AUD) is witnessing a rise against the US dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day, reaching 0.6629. This upward movement is bolstered by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) current policy stance. RBA Governor Michelle Bullock emphasized today that discussions on interest rate cuts are premature despite some easing in inflationary pressures.

Inflation, according to Governor Bullock, remains uncomfortably high, with expectations for it to settle within the target range of 2-3% only towards the end of next year. This viewpoint underpinned the RBA’s decision last week to maintain the official cash rate at 4.35%, marking the sixth consecutive hold. The RBA cites ongoing economic stability and persistent inflation risks as key reasons for their cautious approach.

This stance starkly contrasts with other major central banks, including the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which have been more open to adjusting rates. However, the RBA’s consistent and factual communication strategy has minimized speculative market reactions, contributing to a more stable forex forecast for the AUD.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair has reached a peak at 0.6640 and is now showing signs of consolidating below this level. Should the pair break downwards from this consolidation, a decline to 0.6450 could be anticipated. Following this potential drop, a rebound to 0.6545 for a retest from below might occur before a further descent towards 0.6200. This bearish outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, which shows the signal line retreating from highs and gearing towards a downturn.

On the hourly chart, after a decline to 0.6555, the AUD/USD pair corrected upwards to 0.6628. A consolidation below this level is expected, which could lead to a new downward wave aiming for 0.6540. This bearish prediction aligns with the Stochastic oscillator readings, where the signal line is poised to move from above 80 downwards to 20, indicating potential selling pressure ahead.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

17 Aug

Speculators flip Japanese Yen bets into 1st bullish position since March 2021

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 13th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Swiss Franc & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly overall higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (34,458 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (2,400 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (2,021 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (1,127 contracts), the Brazilian Real (1,041 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (409 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-26,587 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-15,242 contracts), the EuroFX (-6,597 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-2,417 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-143 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators flip Japanese Yen bets into 1st bullish position since March 2021

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is sharp increase in bullish bets for the Japanese yen speculators. Large speculators followed up last week’s surge in buying of yen contracts with another strong weekly gain by +34,458 net contracts this week. Last week’s jump by +62,105 contracts was the third largest weekly gain on record (following +69,020 contracts on March 1st 2011 and the highest weekly change of +77,690 contracts on October 31st 2006).

Overall, speculators have now boosted yen positions for six consecutive weeks for a 6-week total increase of +207,327 contracts that has brought the positioning from -184,223 contracts on July 2nd to this week’s +23,104 contract level.

This is the first weekly bullish position following 178 consecutive weeks of bearish levels that dated back to March 9th of 2021. The 178-week streak of consecutive bearish positions marks the highest all-time streak – illustrating the depth of bearish sentiment the yen has experienced over the past few years.

The yen exchange rate versus the US dollar has now improved by almost 9 percent from the low-point reached in July, according to this week’s closing prices. The July low (USDJPY level of 161.95) was also the weakest level for the yen against the dollar since 1986. The USDJPY closed out the week at 147.54.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) and Bitcoin (72 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (58 percent), Mexican Peso (56 percent) and the Australian Dollar (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Brazilian Real (1 percent), the Canadian Dollar (7 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (11 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the EuroFX (32 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (43.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (38.4 percent)
EuroFX (31.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (34.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (57.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (69.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (83.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (52.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (51.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (7.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (6.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (54.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (56.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (10.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (8.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (56.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (63.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (1.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (0.0 percent)
Bitcoin (72.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (74.5 percent)

Japanese Yen & Swiss Franc top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) and the Swiss Franc (40 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. Bitcoin (20 percent), the EuroFX (16 percent) and the US Dollar Index (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-89 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-27 percent), the Australian Dollar (-23 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (4.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-3.0 percent)
EuroFX (15.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (17.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-6.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (78.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (40.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (24.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-26.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-26.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-22.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-13.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-89.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-83.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (-6.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (3.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (-12.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-30.9 percent)
Bitcoin (19.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (17.5 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 18,536 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,136 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	74.5	18.0	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.5	55.8	8.0
– Net Position:	18,536	-17,120	-1,416
– Gross Longs:	33,686	8,138	2,194
– Gross Shorts:	15,150	25,258	3,610
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.6	64.5	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.2	3.0	-37.5

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 26,983 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,597 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,580 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	57.3	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.3	65.4	7.6
– Net Position:	26,983	-54,027	27,044
– Gross Longs:	182,212	382,394	77,589
– Gross Shorts:	155,229	436,421	50,545
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.8	69.0	31.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-15.5	10.9

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 47,812 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -26,587 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,399 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.9	27.8	17.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.7	56.2	12.6
– Net Position:	47,812	-58,340	10,528
– Gross Longs:	102,603	57,134	36,458
– Gross Shorts:	54,791	115,474	25,930
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.6	38.2	84.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.4	2.7	15.8

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 23,104 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 34,458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,354 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.6	60.3	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	67.7	10.4
– Net Position:	23,104	-23,527	423
– Gross Longs:	87,101	190,064	33,201
– Gross Shorts:	63,997	213,591	32,778
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	83.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	100.0	-100.0	33.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -21,664 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,073 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.9	67.0	18.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.9	26.9	25.6
– Net Position:	-21,664	26,308	-4,644
– Gross Longs:	9,155	44,026	12,177
– Gross Shorts:	30,819	17,718	16,821
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.2	42.4	56.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	40.4	-49.1	37.9

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -179,611 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,021 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -181,632 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	82.1	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.0	26.1	10.1
– Net Position:	-179,611	180,958	-1,347
– Gross Longs:	20,668	265,254	31,163
– Gross Shorts:	200,279	84,296	32,510
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.5	90.6	26.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.6	23.2	8.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -42,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,417 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,199 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.5	50.0	13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.2	24.2	16.2
– Net Position:	-42,616	48,481	-5,865
– Gross Longs:	65,028	94,084	24,636
– Gross Shorts:	107,644	45,603	30,501
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.7	52.5	40.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.6	25.6	-27.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -15,624 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,127 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,751 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	67.5	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.1	42.3	8.1
– Net Position:	-15,624	16,811	-1,187
– Gross Longs:	17,050	44,973	4,240
– Gross Shorts:	32,674	28,162	5,427
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.9	86.3	42.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-89.1	86.3	-11.6

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 50,094 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,242 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,336 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.4	51.7	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.4	78.0	2.8
– Net Position:	50,094	-48,708	-1,386
– Gross Longs:	82,188	95,620	3,845
– Gross Shorts:	32,094	144,328	5,231
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.0	45.7	2.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.6	7.9	-19.8

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -53,842 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,041 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,883 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.4	75.0	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	87.0	10.0	3.0
– Net Position:	-53,842	54,218	-376
– Gross Longs:	18,700	62,592	2,117
– Gross Shorts:	72,542	8,374	2,493
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	7.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.0	100.0	30.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.1	11.9	0.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 395 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 538 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	86.5	2.3	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	85.1	4.7	3.1
– Net Position:	395	-676	281
– Gross Longs:	24,121	644	1,148
– Gross Shorts:	23,726	1,320	867
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.4	47.5	19.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.7	-30.2	-2.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

16 Aug

AUD/USD climbs as RBA maintains firm stance on interest rates

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

14 Aug

USD/JPY Sees Retreat Amid US Dollar Weakness

By RoboForex Analytical Department

USD/JPY has retreated from its peak this week, settling at 146.82. The yen gained some strength as the US dollar weakened following July’s lacklustre US Producer Price Index (PPI) data. This report bolstered market expectations for a potential 50 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve at its upcoming September meeting.

The focus now shifts to the July US Consumer Price Index (CPI), due for release today. Market participants predict sharp reactions if the data is weaker than expected, reinforcing the case for further rate cuts.

Domestically, the Tankan report indicated a decline in business confidence in Japan in August, likely influenced by reduced demand from China and other external pressures. This decrease to 10 points from 11 reflects Japan’s broader economic challenges.

Additionally, the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy outlook remains a critical focal point amid recent stock market volatility and decreased carry trade activities involving the yen. While a former BoJ official expressed doubts about the possibility of an interest rate increase this year due to financial market impacts, the broader market remains cautiously optimistic about future monetary tightening.

Technical Analysis of USD/JPY

The USD/JPY forecast shows that the pair is currently consolidating around the 147.00 level. We anticipate a corrective decline to 145.00, followed by a potential rebound towards 152.22. A breach of this level could extend the upward trend towards 159.52. This bullish outlook is technically supported by the MACD indicator, which, although its signal line is below zero, suggests downward momentum.

On the hourly chart, USD/JPY continues its corrective phase with a target set at 145.80. The pair is currently stabilising around 146.55, setting the stage for a potential decline to 145.60, and possibly extending the correction to 145.00. This scenario is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line poised to move from below the 80 level to the 20 level, suggesting potential further declines.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

12 Aug

NZD/USD gains momentum ahead of RBNZ meeting

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The New Zealand dollar is steadily rising against the US dollar, with the NZD/USD pair reaching 0.6014 as of Monday. The financial markets are gearing up for Wednesday’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting. Analysts widely anticipate that the RBNZ will maintain the official cash rate at 5.5% for the ninth consecutive time, reflecting ongoing concerns about the robustness of New Zealand’s economy.

Recent data releases have painted a mixed economic picture. The unemployment rate in New Zealand showed a less-than-expected increase in Q2, while inflation expectations dipped to a three-year low for Q3. These factors collectively strengthen the case for potential rate cuts, though it appears unlikely that the RBNZ will adjust rates downward in August, preferring to wait for cues from major global central banks.

Investor attention is also turning towards upcoming US inflation data, which could further influence global monetary policy expectations, particularly Federal Reserve expectations.

Despite challenges in July and August, the NZD has shown commendable resilience, suggesting potential for continued stability and barring significant external shocks.

Technical analysis of NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair is developing a consolidation range just above the 0.5983 level. We expect to see an extension of this range to 0.6050, considered a corrective move. According to our NZD/USD forex forecast, the market will likely initiate a downward trend towards 0.5920 following this correction. A breach of this level could open the path to a further decline towards 0.5800. This bearish outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, which, although above zero, points downwards, indicating potential selling pressure.

On the hourly chart, the NZD/USD is crafting the fifth segment of a growth wave aiming for 0.6050, considered a corrective rally. Upon reaching this level, we anticipate a reversal leading to a decrease towards 0.5983, potentially extending the downtrend to 0.5920. This bearish scenario is substantiated by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is currently positioned above 80 but shows signs of a forthcoming downturn.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

11 Aug

Speculators sharply pare back Japanese Yen bearish bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 6th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & EuroFX

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower overall this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (62,106 contracts) with the EuroFX (15,781 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (14,631 contracts), the Swiss Franc (12,447 contracts) and Bitcoin (1,540 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-37,072 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-13,724 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-8,829 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-5,343 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-2,324 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-822 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators sharply pared back Japanese Yen bearish bets

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week was the large move in the Japanese yen speculator position that took place after last week’s (and the previous Friday) early risk-off trades and volatility spikes.

The Japanese yen speculator contracts saw a huge surge of buying with the yen speculator positioning jumping by over +62,000 contracts on the week. This was the highest one-week gain since March 1st of 2011 when the yen rose by +69,020 contracts. The turnaround in yen positions coincided with an enormous volatility event that shook the financial markets with many focusing the risk-off behavior on an unwind of yen carry trades – where traders sell a low-yielding asset like the yen to invest in a higher yielding like the USD to pocket the interest rate difference.

The yen buying and paring of shorts brought the overall speculator standing to just -11,354 contracts through Tuesday. This puts the speculator positioning back to an almost neutral position after the standing had been at least -100,000 contracts for twenty-four straight weeks from February 13th through two weeks ago on July 23rd. Overall, the yen positioning has now continued to remain in a bearish position for 178 consecutive weeks, dating back to March 16th of 2021.

This possibly could be coming to an end as a change in policy by the Bank of Japan and an unwinding of the carry trade may bring some yen strength back into the market or at least dampen the one-way market action. The yen had lost approximately 50 percent of its value against the US Dollar in the past three years with the USDJPY currency pair reaching multi-decade highs above 162.00 before the latest selloff and unwind of the yen short positioning.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) and Bitcoin (75 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (70 percent), Mexican Peso (64 percent) and the Australian Dollar (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Brazilian Real (0 percent), the Canadian Dollar (7 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (38.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (40.2 percent)
EuroFX (34.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (27.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (69.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (86.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (64.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (50.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (27.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (6.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (0.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (56.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (64.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (8.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (19.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (63.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (64.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (0.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (13.0 percent)
Bitcoin (74.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (51.3 percent)

Japanese Yen & Swiss Franc top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Japanese Yen (94 percent) and the Swiss Franc (23 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The EuroFX (18 percent), the Bitcoin (17 percent) and the British Pound (14 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-83 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-31 percent), Canadian Dollar (-27 percent) and the Australian Dollar (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-3.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-1.4 percent)
EuroFX (17.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (4.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (28.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (94.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (43.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (23.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (5.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-26.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-21.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (-13.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (8.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-83.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-61.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (3.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (8.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (-30.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-20.3 percent)
Bitcoin (17.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-4.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 16,136 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -822 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,958 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.8	17.9	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.4	55.5	7.1
– Net Position:	16,136	-15,827	-309
– Gross Longs:	30,996	7,502	2,667
– Gross Shorts:	14,860	23,329	2,976
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.4	67.3	7.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.0	7.5	-25.1

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 33,580 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 15,781 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,799 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.7	57.6	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	66.2	7.5
– Net Position:	33,580	-57,860	24,280
– Gross Longs:	185,799	386,568	74,618
– Gross Shorts:	152,219	444,428	50,338
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.6	67.5	25.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.9	-18.0	13.9

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 74,399 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -37,072 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 111,471 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.3	26.2	14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	62.4	11.8
– Net Position:	74,399	-81,080	6,681
– Gross Longs:	126,080	58,800	33,006
– Gross Shorts:	51,681	139,880	26,325
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.5	29.1	76.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.6	-14.3	12.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -11,354 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 62,106 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,460 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	64.2	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	60.1	11.4
– Net Position:	-11,354	12,196	-842
– Gross Longs:	66,169	191,829	33,312
– Gross Shorts:	77,523	179,633	34,154
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	79.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	94.0	-93.0	22.3

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -22,073 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 12,447 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,520 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	68.6	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.2	26.0	26.8
– Net Position:	-22,073	29,131	-7,058
– Gross Longs:	9,570	46,960	11,309
– Gross Shorts:	31,643	17,829	18,367
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.1	47.0	45.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.5	-32.9	32.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -181,632 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 14,631 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -196,263 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	81.8	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.8	26.5	10.5
– Net Position:	-181,632	185,438	-3,806
– Gross Longs:	21,993	274,249	31,460
– Gross Shorts:	203,625	88,811	35,266
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.6	92.5	19.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.5	24.3	0.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -40,199 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,829 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,370 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.4	50.4	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.3	27.1	14.1
– Net Position:	-40,199	44,743	-4,544
– Gross Longs:	68,193	97,019	22,601
– Gross Shorts:	108,392	52,276	27,145
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.8	49.9	44.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.9	17.5	-23.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -16,751 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,408 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	68.0	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.4	42.2	8.1
– Net Position:	-16,751	19,140	-2,389
– Gross Longs:	19,843	50,442	3,611
– Gross Shorts:	36,594	31,302	6,000
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.7	90.6	25.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-83.4	85.4	-46.1

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 65,336 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.9	45.6	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	79.2	2.7
– Net Position:	65,336	-64,007	-1,329
– Gross Longs:	96,916	86,813	3,812
– Gross Shorts:	31,580	150,820	5,141
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.5	38.4	2.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.7	-2.4	-15.9

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -54,883 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,724 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,159 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	71.8	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	84.4	12.4	3.0
– Net Position:	-54,883	54,127	756
– Gross Longs:	21,986	65,437	3,508
– Gross Shorts:	76,869	11,310	2,752
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	5.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	41.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.9	28.7	17.8

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 538 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,540 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,002 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	87.0	2.1	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	85.0	4.7	3.6
– Net Position:	538	-719	181
– Gross Longs:	23,954	579	1,164
– Gross Shorts:	23,416	1,298	983
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.5	46.4	17.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.5	-24.4	-4.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

09 Aug

EUR/USD Stabilises Amid Fed Speculation and Absence of Major Economic Data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair has found some stability at around 1.0921 this Friday, following a week marked by high volatility. Market participants have been adjusting their positions in response to speculations concerning the US economy’s potential rapid recession and subsequent expectations about the Federal Reserve’s response.

The broader market sentiment has increasingly leaned towards anticipating a significant rate cut by the Fed in September, possibly by 50 basis points. However, the validity of these expectations remains to be seen as the situation evolves.

Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, recently emphasised that the Federal Reserve’s mandate is not to respond to stock market fluctuations but to focus on its dual objectives of maximising employment and achieving price stability. He also reiterated that the Fed has set specific economic criteria to justify a rate reduction. Goolsbee’s remarks seem to have calmed some of the more erratic market movements.

With no significant economic data released this week, traders have been left to navigate the market based on speculative movements and minor indicators.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

The H4 EUR/USD chart shows that the pair has completed an initial downward movement targeting the 1.0880 level, followed by a corrective phase towards 1.0944. Should this correction complete, a further decline to 1.0888 is anticipated. Breaking below this level could extend the downward trajectory towards 1.0830. The bearish outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is positioned above zero but trending downwards, indicating a potential continuation of the decline.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD has formed a consolidation pattern around the 1.0913 mark. An upward breakout is expected, potentially driving the pair towards 1.0944, which is seen as a corrective move against the previous downtrend. Upon completion of this correction, the focus will shift to a new declining phase targeting 1.0888. This technical perspective is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line poised to move from below the 80 level to around 20, suggesting an impending downward momentum.

Overall, the EUR/USD pair shows signs of temporary equilibrium as it navigates through speculative currents and awaits clearer directional cues from upcoming economic data or Federal Reserve communications.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

06 Aug

NZD/USD Sees Recovery After Hitting Nine-Month Low

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The NZD/USD pair has shown signs of recovery, reaching 0.5941 after initially plunging to a nine-month low. This downturn was triggered by concerns over a potential US recession, driven by weak job sector data, which rattled global financial markets.

As risk aversion spiked, the New Zealand dollar and other currencies declined steeply. This market turmoil reflects growing fears that the Federal Reserve may run out of time to adjust monetary policy to avert economic troubles.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will meet next week. Current market expectations lean towards a rate cut, possibly by 25 basis points, reducing the interest rate to 5.25% per annum on 14 August. This anticipated move is part of a broader global trend towards monetary easing.

Further rate reductions in New Zealand could follow, with projections suggesting a potential decrease to 4.75% per annum by the end of 2024.

Technical analysis of NZD/USD

On the H4 chart, the NZD/USD pair executed a downside wave to 0.5850 and a correction to 0.5977. Today, the market is forming another wave of decline towards 0.5800, after which a correction to 0.5977 is likely (testing from below). On the technical analysis side, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator with its signal line above the zero mark and pointing downwards.

On the H1 chart, the NZD/USD pair forms downward waves to 0.5892. After working off this level, a correction to 0.5936 (testing from below) is likely, and the next wave of decline to 0.5850 is expected to develop with the prospect of trend continuation to 0.5800. This bearish NZD/USD forecast is corroborated by the Stochastic Oscillator, whose signal line is currently below 50 and showing a solid downward trend.

Investors and traders will closely monitor upcoming speeches and reports from central banks, especially the Federal Reserve and RBNZ, as these will significantly influence the currency pair’s movements in the near term.

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05 Aug

Rapid Yen Appreciation: Key Factors Boosting JPY

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The Japanese yen continues its recovery rally. The USDJPY pair falls to 143.38 on Monday.

This development is likely only the midpoint of the process as the market regains past losses and brings the JPY to equilibrium. USDJPY is currently at its lowest level since 3 January.

Several reasons are driving this movement. The first is the winding down of carry trade operations on the yen. The process started earlier when it became clear that the Bank of Japan was moving towards tightening monetary conditions.

The second concern is that a US recession is playing an important role. Friday’s employment data was weaker than expected, triggering fears that the Federal Reserve might delay its decision on interest rate cuts. The market is worried the Fed could be late in making a crucial decision.

The third key factor for the JPY is the increased attractiveness of the yen as a safe-haven asset amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The ongoing conflict in the region poses a hypothetical threat to global stability, and investors are factoring in this risk and favouring safe-haven assets.

Technical analysis: USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair formed a consolidation range of around 149.80 before breaking downwards on impactful news. The decline reached 142.00, setting a local low. We anticipate a new consolidation phase above this level. An upward break could see a corrective move towards 149.80. Conversely, a downward exit might extend losses towards 138.10. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook, showing continued downward momentum.

After reaching 142.00, a corrective phase to 147.33 may unfold, representing an intermediate target. Following this correction, a further decline to 144.66 could occur. This analysis aligns with the Stochastic oscillator, indicating a potential for an upward correction from oversold levels.

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