InvestMacro

By JustMarkets

As of Tuesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.08%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.28%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.42%.

On Tuesday, stock indices gave up early gains and suffered moderate losses. Nvidia (NVDA) fell more than 2%, causing chip maker stocks to fall, which impacted the overall market. Eight of the eleven sectors ended trading lower. The US economic news on Tuesday was mixed for stocks, with new capital goods orders rising more than expected in February, but the US consumer confidence index unexpectedly declined.

Tesla (TSLA) closed higher by more than 2% after it was revealed that Italy’s Ministry of Industry has contacted the company about the potential production of electric trucks.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.67% and set a new all-time high, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed Tuesday up 0.41%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.36%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.17%.

The GfK Consumer Confidence Index for April in Germany rose by 1.4 to 27.4, stronger than expectations of 28.0. ECB Governing Council spokesman Müller said the data over the coming weeks may be enough to confirm a slowdown in inflation by the time ECB policymakers set borrowing costs in June.

The Swiss franc fell to 0.9 per US dollar in late March, the lowest in nearly five months, amid contrasting monetary policies from the Swiss National Bank and the Federal Reserve. The SNB cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 1.5% at its March meeting, surprising markets that had expected it to hold, the first rate cut among major central banks since global disinflation began in 2023. In addition to the rate cut, the SNB sharply revised its inflation forecast for Switzerland downward, with policymakers expecting inflation to stay below 1.5% in the near term despite the government ending utility subsidies.

Sweden’s Riksbank will hold a monetary policy meeting today. The Riksbank is expected to leave rates unchanged at this meeting, but traders will be hoping for hints that a rate cut will come in June or even earlier.

WTI crude prices fell to $81 a barrel on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous session. A large increase in US crude inventories raised demand concerns in the world’s top oil consumer. Industry data showed that US crude inventories rose by 9.337 million barrels last week, a reversal from the previous week’s 1.519 million barrel decline and the biggest weekly increase since February last year.

Asian markets were mostly down. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) lost 0.40%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped 0.69%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended yesterday up 0.88% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.41%.

Softer-than-expected Australian inflation data bolstered bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may start cutting interest rates this summer. The data showed that Australia’s monthly consumer price index for February 2024 came in at 3.4%, unchanged from the previous two months and missing forecasts for a slight rise to 3.5%.

The Japanese yen’s gradual decline toward 152 per dollar for the first time since 1990 was enough for Japan’s finance minister to immediately warn of “decisive steps” to tame “disorderly” moves. He last uttered those words before the central bank intervened at the end of 2022 to support the yen. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said Wednesday that supporting the economy with an accommodative monetary policy is now essential.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,203.58 −14.61 (−0.28%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,282.33 −31.31 (−0.08%)

DAX (DE40) 18,384.35 +123.04 (+0.67%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,930.96 +13.39 (+0.17%)

USD Index 104.30 +0.07 (+0.07%)

• – Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.41% as of Monday’s stock market close. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.31%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.27%. Stock indices declined moderately on Monday as some hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve pushed T-note yields up and stocks lower. Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that if the economy performs as expected, the Fed can be patient with interest rates, and he expects only one 25 bps rate cut this year. Bostic’s prediction is less than the three 25 bps rate cuts the FOMC has scheduled for this year. Fed spokeswoman Cook said yesterday that a cautious approach to monetary easing may be needed to restore price stability and that cutting interest rates too quickly could risk entrenching inflation. Markets rate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 13% for the next FOMC meeting on May 1 and 79% for the June 12 meeting.

Take-Two Interactive Software closed down more than 6% after gaming publication Kotaku reported that Grand Theft Auto VI production has begun to be delayed, and the game may not be released in 2025. Shares of United Airlines Holdings (UAL) fell more than 3% after a report that the US Federal Aviation Administration is considering imposing temporary sanctions on the company, including a ban on adding new routes, following a series of safety incidents. In addition, Intel (INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares fell after the Financial Times reported that China is seeking to restrict US-made microprocessors and servers in government computers.

Equity markets in Europe mostly went up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.30%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed Monday at its opening price, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.08%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.17%. Frankfurt’s DAX (DE40) reached another record high of 18,268, gaining from the previous week and benefitting from dovish cues from major central banks. Increasing sentiment that policymakers are leaning towards rate cuts has led money markets to price in nearly a whole percentage point of ECB rate cuts this year ahead of the ECB meeting in early April. Automakers’ trading in Frankfurt rose sharply, with BMW and Volkswagen adding 2% and 1%, respectively, while Mercedes and Continental ended in the green territory. In addition, Allianz added more than 1%, leading to a positive session for the financial sector.

WTI crude oil prices rose above $82 per barrel on Tuesday, extending gains from the previous session, as various supply concerns supported oil prices. The Russian government ordered oil companies to cut production in the second quarter to meet OPEC’s target of 9 million bpd after output of around 9.5 million bpd in February. Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have also affected about 12% of the country’s refining capacity. In the Middle East, the UN Security Council passed a resolution calling for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. However, analysts doubt this will stop Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea disrupting supply routes.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 1.16%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 1.03%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 0.93% at the end of Monday, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.53%.

Japan’s annual business services inflation was unchanged at 2.1% in February, suggesting that companies continue to pass on rising labor costs to consumers thanks to the prospect of sustained wage growth. The annual increase in the service producer price index, which measures how much companies charge each other for services, was unchanged from January, data from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) showed Tuesday. Japan’s Finance Minister Shun’ichi Suzuki said he did not rule out taking any measures to curb yen weakness, adding that excessive volatility increases uncertainty for business operations and the broader economy. The remarks came a day after the country’s top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, said the weakening yen did not reflect fundamentals and called recent moves speculative.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,218.19 −15.99 (−0.31%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,313.64 −162.26 (−0.41%)

DAX (DE40) 18,261.31 +55.37 (+0.30%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,917.57 −13.35 (−0.17%)

USD Index 104.23 −0.20 (−0.19%)

• – Eurozone GfK German Consumer Climate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
• – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By JustMarkets

At Friday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.77% (for the week +1.67%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.14% (for the week +1.54%). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.16% (for the week +1.70%).

Lululemon Athletica shares closed down more than 15% on Friday after warning of a slowdown in US store visits and forecasting 2025 net revenue below consensus. Nike (NKE) also closed down more than 6% after warning of low single-digit sales declines in the first half of the fiscal year. Additionally, Tesla’s shares (TSLA) fell more than 1% after Bloomberg reported that the company cut vehicle production at a plant in China. FedEx (FDX) shares are up more than 7% after the company reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share above consensus and announced a $5 billion share repurchase plan. Additionally, shares of Nvidia (NVSA) are up more than 3% after UBS raised its price target on the company’s stock to $1,100 from $800.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.15% (for the week +1.50%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.34% on Friday (for the week -0.29%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.70% (for the week +3.27%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.61% (for the week +2.63%).

The IFO German business climate survey for March rose by 2.1 to a 9-month high of 87.8, stronger than expectations of 86.0. Nagel, a spokesman for the ECB’s governing council and president of the Bundesbank, said the likelihood that the ECB would cut interest rates for the first time “before the summer break” in August is growing. Still, investors should not conclude that the same will happen at every subsequent meeting.

On Friday, silver prices were pressured by the negative impact of copper prices falling to 1-week lows amid signs of weakness in Chinese industrial metals demand, as demand for metals during the peak of China’s construction season falls short of expectations.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 6.07%, Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.05% in 5 trading days, Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.14% last week, and Australian ASX 200 (AU200) closed positive for the week 1.31%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index (JP225) opened lower on Monday as investors booked profits after the benchmark recently hit record highs. A senior Japanese finance official expressed doubts about the US dollar’s recent appreciation against the Japanese yen, fueling speculation of possible market intervention. The yen fell sharply last week even after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years and ended eight years of negative rates in what was seen by markets as a well-crafted decision. The central bank also abandoned its yield curve adjustment policy, stopped buying ETFs and J-REITs, and reduced bond purchases. Meanwhile, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank will maintain an accommodative stance for some time, keeping rates at 0%.

Chinese stocks have been rising since the market opened on Monday. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on Sunday that Beijing will step up policy measures to support the economic recovery. He also cited China’s relatively low consumer prices and the central government’s manageable debt levels as opportunities to expand macroeconomic policies.

The historic end of ultra-easy monetary policy in Japan and a surprise rate hike in Taiwan have boosted the yuan’s appeal as a funding currency for global trading of emerging market currencies. The yuan has become a more affordable funding option as the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is in easing mode. While the yen remains the lowest-yielding currency in the world despite the Bank of Japan’s rejection of negative rates, heightened expectations of its rise and volatility could deter borrowers. The Chinese yuan currently compares more favorably to the Taiwan dollar on these metrics and is more attractive than the US dollar in terms of both implied yield and volatility.

Singapore’s annual inflation rate for February 2024 rose to 3.4% from a more than two-year low of 2.9% in the previous month, compared with market forecasts of 3.3%, mainly due to faster growth in housing and food prices. Core inflation rose to a seven-month high of 3.6% in February from January’s 23-month low of 3.1%, beating forecasts for a 3.4% increase. On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices rose by 1.0% in February, the highest in 15 months. The Ministry of Commerce and the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) predict core and core inflation to average between 2.5% and 3.5% in 2024.

Malaysia’s annual inflation rate unexpectedly rose to 1.8% in February 2024 from 1.5% in the previous month, beating market predictions of 1.4%. This was the highest rate since October last year. Core consumer prices, excluding volatile fresh food prices and administrative costs, rose to 1.8% y/y, in line with the pace of growth in January.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,234.18 −7.35 (−0.14%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,475.90 −305.47 (−0.77%)

DAX (DE40) 18,205.94 +26.69 (+0.15%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,930.92 +48.37 (+0.61%)

USD Index 104.43 +1.00 (+0.96%)

• – Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 01:50 (GMT+2);
• – Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 12:00 (GMT+2).
• – US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 14:25 (GMT+2);
• – US New Home Sales (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
• – US FOMC Member Cook Speaks at 17:20 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.