COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets see small gains for Silver & Gold

By InvestMacro 

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the muted gains for the metals was Silver (647 contracts) with Gold (227 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-1,129 contracts), Copper (-516 contracts), Steel (-349 contracts) and with Palladium (-334 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Copper leads the Metals Markets price performances

In the major Metals Markets this week, Copper was the highest mover with a modest 0.93% gain over the past 5 days. Steel followed that with a 0.72% rise, and Palladium rounded out the gainers with a small 0.30% increase.

On the downside, Gold fell by -2.26% on the week, followed by Platinum with a -2.3% decrease.

The biggest decliner on the week was Silver, which declined by -5.28%.

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Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Copper & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (87 percent) and Steel (71 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (61.1 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Silver (34 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently while the next lowest strength score was Platinum (46 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (50.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (50.2 percent)
Silver (34.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (32.9 percent)
Copper (86.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (87.4 percent)
Platinum (45.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (48.5 percent)
Palladium (61.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (63.3 percent)
Steel (71.4 percent) vs Steel previous week (73.0 percent)

 

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Gold & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (16 percent) and Silver (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Steel (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-12 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (16.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (14.0 percent)
Silver (9.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (4.5 percent)
Copper (-7.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-10.0 percent)
Platinum (-9.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-7.3 percent)
Palladium (-11.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-12.1 percent)
Steel (-14.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (-11.2 percent)

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Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 194,246 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position gain of 227 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 194,019 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.9	16.0	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	75.8	4.7
– Net Position:	194,246	-222,282	28,036
– Gross Longs:	233,713	59,564	45,636
– Gross Shorts:	39,467	281,846	17,600
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.9 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.3	47.1	47.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.4	-14.6	-10.1

 

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Silver Comex Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 28,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position boost of 647 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,368 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.6	29.9	23.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	71.0	9.3
– Net Position:	28,015	-43,095	15,080
– Gross Longs:	39,446	31,337	24,829
– Gross Shorts:	11,431	74,432	9,749
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.0	68.4	35.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-3.5	-19.9

 

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Copper Grade #1 Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 64,272 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position decrease of -516 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,788 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.4	35.1	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	64.3	3.9
– Net Position:	64,272	-73,170	8,898
– Gross Longs:	96,440	88,070	18,622
– Gross Shorts:	32,168	161,240	9,724
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.9	13.0	60.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.9	8.9	-9.1

 

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Platinum Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 13,872 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position reduction of -1,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,001 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.5	33.6	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	66.6	7.0
– Net Position:	13,872	-17,702	3,830
– Gross Longs:	22,825	18,023	7,579
– Gross Shorts:	8,953	35,725	3,749
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.7	60.8	42.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	14.3	-20.9

 

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Palladium Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position decrease of -334 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,324 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.5	46.6	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.6	23.3	9.1
– Net Position:	-4,658	4,161	497
– Gross Longs:	6,345	8,315	2,127
– Gross Shorts:	11,003	4,154	1,630
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.1	43.1	35.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.7	12.9	-11.8

 

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Steel Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,363 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position lowering of -349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,712 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	64.1	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.5	85.4	0.3
– Net Position:	8,363	-8,533	170
– Gross Longs:	11,353	25,662	274
– Gross Shorts:	2,990	34,195	104
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.4	29.3	47.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.0	14.8	-26.7

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.