By InvestMacro
The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on February 17th.
This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.
To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)
The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in tied as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the AUD speculator level is currently at a maximum 100 percent score of its 3-year range.
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The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a gain of 42 percentage points this week while the overall net speculator position was a total of 45,931 net contracts this week with a boost of 12,722 contract in the weekly speculator bets.
Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.
The Canadian Dollar speculator position comes in also tied in the extreme standings this week. The CAD speculator level is now at a maximum 100 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the strength score was a jump by 30 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 25,826 net contracts this week with a weekly rise of 12,550 contracts in speculator bets.
The Steel speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Steel speculator level resides at a 97 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a gain of 12 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 11,736 net contracts this week with a small gain of 344 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.
The Euro speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week as the EUR speculator level resides at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 4 percentage points this week with the overall speculator position sitting at 174,480 net contracts this week with a decline of -5,825 contracts in the speculator bets.
The Palladium speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings as the Palladium speculator level also sits at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -1 percentage point this week.
The speculator position was 492 net contracts this week with a small edge lower by -21 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.
The Sugar speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the Sugar speculator level is at a minimum 0 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -19 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -253,592 net contracts this week with a decline of -18,191 contracts in the speculator bets.
The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Cocoa speculator level is close to the bottom at a 1 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a slide by -19 percentage points this week while the speculator position totaled -17,618 net contracts this week following a small boost by 1,328 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.
The Natural Gas speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week as the Natural Gas speculator level resides at just a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a reduction by -14 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position totaled -185,812 net contracts this week after a decrease of -13,947 contracts in the speculator bets.
The Cotton speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Cotton speculator level is at a 6 percent score of its 3-year range while the six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -16 percentage points this week.
The speculator position totaled -55,733 net contracts this week with a decrease by -4,407 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.
Next, the Swiss Franc speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week with the CHF speculator level residing at a 18 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a small dip by -1 percentage points this week and the speculator position totaled -40,881 net contracts this week following an increase of 1,378 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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