The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its interest rate unchanged as expected. Natural gas prices fell by 7% on Monday

By the end of Monday, the Dow Jones (US30) declined by 0.45%, the S&P500 (US500) fell by 0.35%, and the Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 0.14%. Investors remain cautious ahead of the Fed’s decision on Wednesday: the probability of a 25 bp rate cut is estimated at around 90%, but inflation concerns make markets more restrained about the trajectory of rates in 2026. On the corporate front, deals and rating changes stood out. Warner Bros. Discovery shares rose by 4.4% after a competing offer from Paramount Skydance, while Netflix fell by 3.4%. Tesla dropped 3.4% after a downgrade. Attention also shifted to upcoming reports from Broadcom and Oracle, with Broadcom shares already hitting a record high on news of talks with Microsoft about chip production.

European stock markets traded mixed on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.07%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.08%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.14%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.23%. In Europe, ECB’s Isabel Schnabel stated that she agrees with market expectations that the central bank’s next step could be a rate hike.

WTI crude prices fell more than 2% and traded below $59 per barrel, approaching a monthly low. Prices were pressured by a stronger dollar and weaker global fuel demand expectations amid weakness in the transport and industrial sectors. An additional downside came from EIA data showing US crude inventories rose by 0.57 million barrels, reinforcing signals of oversupply.

The US natural gas prices fell nearly 7% on Monday to $4.9 per MMBtu after strong gains last week, as prognoses of milder weather weakened seasonal demand expectations. Record production of about 109.7 bcf per day and comfortable inventory levels added pressure, indicating no short‑term supply risks.
Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.18%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.87%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 1.23%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed down 0.12%.

The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.2% to 25,765 points, ending a two‑day rally, pressured by the financial, real estate, and consumer sectors. The market remained cautious amid persistent deflation risks in China and anticipation of key policy signals from the upcoming Politburo meeting and annual economic conference.
The Australian dollar strengthened after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the refinancing rate at 3.60% for the third consecutive time. The regulator noted persistent inflationary pressures and a tight labor market, emphasizing that future steps depend on data. Markets now estimate the probability of a rate hike by May 2026 at about 50/50, while most economists believe the easing cycle has ended.

The New Zealand dollar consolidated near a five‑week high, supported by expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has ended its easing cycle. Although the regulator recently cut the rate by 25 bp, its projections suggest only a 20% chance of another cut in 2026, given easing inflation and improved economic prospects. New RBNZ Governor Anna Breman emphasized the priority of controlling inflation while supporting growth and employment. Markets now expect the next move to be a rate hike, not before late 2026. Additional support for the currency comes from US dollar weakness ahead of the anticipated Fed rate cut.