Silver rises above $60/ounce. Australian dollar holds near three-month high

On Tuesday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.38%. The S&P500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.09%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed higher by 0.13%. A fresh estimate of US job openings (a rise to 7.67 million) maintained investor focus on labor market signals amid expectations of a likely 25 basis point Fed rate cut this week. Among other movements: Nvidia dropped by 0.3% on reports of potential restrictions on H200 chip purchases in China, and Home Depot declined by 1.3% following more cautious profit expectations for 2026.

The Mexican peso weakened to 18.3 per dollar, pulling back from a one-and-a-half-year high. The currency was pressured by rising US yields and a narrowing yield premium in Mexico, as markets anticipate further Banxico policy easing in 2026. Weaker economic prognoses and expectations of lower real interest rates create additional pressure, limiting capital inflows and increasing the peso’s vulnerability.

European stock markets traded directionally mixed on Tuesday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.49%, the French CAC 40 (FR 40) closed down by 0.69%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.13%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down by 0.03%.

Silver climbed above $60 per ounce on Tuesday amid expectations of a Fed rate cut and a persistent physical metal deficit. The rally is supported by increased industrial demand from solar energy, electric vehicles, and electronics against limited mining output, leading to outflows from exchange warehouses and inflows into ETFs. However, tougher signals from the Fed or an increase in supply could cap further gains.

WTI continued its decline on Tuesday. Pressure on quotes intensified due to signs of increasing supply: China boosted purchases of Saudi oil after reduced selling prices, and Iraq resumed production at the West Qurna-2 field, adding volume to the market amidst rising US inventories. Additional negative sentiment was generated by estimates from the IEA and OPEC+, indicating a possible supply surplus in 2026. Geopolitical risks continue to support the market, but traders’ attention is also focused on the Fed meeting: the expected rate cut could strengthen demand expectations for oil next year.

Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.14%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.02%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) dropped by 1.29%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.45%.

The Australian dollar is holding near a three-month high thanks to a hawkish signal from the RBA on monetary policy. Despite a pause in rate changes at the December meeting, RBA Governor Bullock suggested the possibility of a rate hike as early as February if there is no progress in reducing inflation, which sharply strengthened tightening expectations: the market prices the probability of a February hike at approximately 30%, and nearly 100% by May. Rising Australian bond yields boosted capital inflow through the carry trade and supported the Australian currency.

On Wednesday, the offshore yuan held around 7.06 per dollar, as increased consumer inflation softened expectations of further monetary policy support. China’s consumer prices rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November 2025, the highest reading since February 2024. Earlier this week, the Politburo promised to expand domestic demand and support the overall economy in 2026, though it demonstrated a cautious approach to stimulus. Meanwhile, factory gate deflation unexpectedly worsened to 2.2% in November, marking the 38th consecutive month of producer price declines.