Canadian dollar hits 2‑month high. Mexican peso rises on carry trade appeal

By Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.22% (weekly +0.79%), the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.19% (weekly +0.85%), and the Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.43% higher (weekly +1.82%). Support came from fresh data: the PCE Price Index rose 0.3% in September vs. August, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index improved for the first time in five months. This strengthened expectations of a Fed rate cut of 25 bp, with probability around 87%. Large‑cap stocks mostly rose: Amazon 0.7%, Alphabet 1.3%, Meta 0.7%, Broadcom 2.7%, Tesla 0.4%, while Apple was unchanged and Nvidia fell 0.2%.

The Canadian dollar strengthened above 1.39 per USD, reaching a two‑month high, supported by strong labor market data and US dollar weakness. November unemployment unexpectedly fell to 6.5%, with the number of unemployed down 80,000 to 1.5 million, signaling an easing domestic slowdown. This outcome increased the likelihood of a Bank of Canada pause after October’s rate cut, while expectations of a near‑certain Fed cut in December and further easing in 2026 pressured the dollar and supported CAD.

Mexican peso firmed to 18.16 per USD, its highest since July 2024, amid near‑certain expectations of a Fed rate cut in December, which weakened the dollar and boosted EM carry trade appeal. Additional support came from a stable labor market (unemployment at 2.6%), an October trade surplus, and Banxico’s lowered inflation expectations, maintaining positive real rates and attracting capital inflows.

European equities traded mixed on Friday, but posted a second week of gains. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.61% (weekly +1.25%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.09% (weekly +0.45%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped 0.35% (weekly +2.23%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.45% (weekly -0.55%). Automakers Mercedes‑Benz, Volkswagen, and BMW showed solid gains again. Defense firms Rheinmetall and Leonardo ended the week higher amid fading expectations of a quick end to the war in Ukraine.

Silver prices rose above $58, nearing all‑time highs, supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut and renewed investor interest. Slowing private‑sector hiring and corporate layoff data reinforced confidence in easing. Additional drivers included low exchange inventories, active ETF accumulation, a projected 2025 supply deficit, and strong demand from solar and other green industries.

The natural gas prices exceeded $5/MMBtu, hitting a three‑year high and rising 70% from mid‑October lows amid surging export demand. European countries continued to reduce reliance on Russian gas, while US LNG exports in November rose 40% to 10.7 million tons. Further support came from cold‑winter expectations in the US Northeast and Great Lakes, while EIA data showed utilities withdrew 12 bcf of gas in the week ending November 21, slightly above expectations.

Asian equities mostly rose last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.34%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.91%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.54%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.24% over five days.

Offshore yuan held near 7.06 per USD, as strong external demand offset weak domestic activity. November exports rose 5.9% y/y on improved US relations, while imports grew just 1.9%, signaling sluggish domestic demand. The trade surplus widened to $111.7bn, a five‑month high, supporting GDP growth prospects toward the 5% target. Investors await inflation data to gauge the next steps in China’s monetary policy.