By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
The COT energy market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the energy markets was Natural Gas (8,229 contracts) with Brent Oil (2,447 contracts) also having a positive week.
The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were WTI Crude (-20,584 contracts), Heating Oil (-10,789 contracts), the Bloomberg Index (-522 contracts) and Gasoline (-185 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.
Free Reports:
Brent Oil led the energy markets in price gains this week with a 1.83% rise for the last five days. Brent Crude has been down by over -5% in the last 30 days, but is up by 18% over the past 90 days.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index was the next highest gainer with a 1.4% increase over the past five days. Heating Oil rose by 1.33% this week and has been up by almost 20% over the last 90 days.
WTI Crude Oil rose by 0.97%. WTI has been down by about -8% over the past 30 days, while also being higher by 17.58% over the past 90 days. Gasoline was the next highest mover with a 0.92% increase for the week.
Natural Gas was the only decliner on the week with a -3.25% decrease. Natural Gas has been down by approximately -8% over the past 30 days, and over the past 90 days, Natural Gas has been down by over -30%.
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Heating Oil (69 percent) and Natural Gas (66 percent) lead the energy markets this week.
On the downside, WTI Crude (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (0.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (7.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (43.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (40.3 percent)
Natural Gas (66.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (60.0 percent)
Gasoline (40.9 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (41.2 percent)
Heating Oil (69.1 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (83.3 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (44.7 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (47.0 percent)
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all the energy markets have negative trend scores at the current time.
Gasoline (-1.7 percent) and Brent Oil (-5.8 percent) have the least negative scores while WTI Crude (-27.7 percent) and the Bloomberg Index (-10.4 percent) have the most negative scores in the latest trends data.
Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-27.7 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-19.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-5.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-16.8 percent)
Natural Gas (-6.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-19.3 percent)
Gasoline (-1.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (9.2 percent)
Heating Oil (-6.7 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (11.6 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-10.4 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-8.2 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 14.0 | 41.8 | 3.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 9.8 | 47.1 | 2.5 |
| – Net Position: | 81,844 | -102,155 | 20,311 |
| – Gross Longs: | 274,256 | 818,832 | 69,296 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 192,412 | 920,987 | 48,985 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.4 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.0 | 100.0 | 42.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -27.7 | 27.7 | -6.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 18.1 | 44.5 | 3.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 30.7 | 32.3 | 3.0 |
| – Net Position: | -26,195 | 25,347 | 848 |
| – Gross Longs: | 37,678 | 92,625 | 7,193 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 63,873 | 67,278 | 6,345 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 43.8 | 58.0 | 45.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -5.8 | 5.3 | 7.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| Natural Gas Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 17.4 | 30.8 | 3.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 23.1 | 25.7 | 2.8 |
| – Net Position: | -94,547 | 83,316 | 11,231 |
| – Gross Longs: | 282,995 | 502,932 | 56,670 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 377,542 | 419,616 | 45,439 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 66.3 | 38.5 | 31.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -6.8 | 11.8 | -16.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 23.9 | 48.7 | 7.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 11.8 | 64.1 | 4.6 |
| – Net Position: | 41,121 | -52,405 | 11,284 |
| – Gross Longs: | 81,040 | 164,911 | 26,762 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 39,919 | 217,316 | 15,478 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.0 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 40.9 | 52.2 | 86.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -1.7 | -5.2 | 32.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| Heating Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 14.8 | 43.9 | 13.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 9.7 | 55.7 | 7.2 |
| – Net Position: | 19,457 | -45,269 | 25,812 |
| – Gross Longs: | 56,751 | 168,677 | 53,529 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 37,294 | 213,946 | 27,717 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.5 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 69.1 | 23.5 | 91.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -6.7 | 5.6 | -2.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 16.9 | 80.8 | 0.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 23.7 | 74.1 | 0.1 |
| – Net Position: | -13,779 | 13,468 | 311 |
| – Gross Longs: | 33,670 | 161,484 | 425 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 47,449 | 148,016 | 114 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 3.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 44.7 | 54.9 | 64.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -10.4 | 10.3 | 0.8 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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