Australian Dollar Speculator Bets rebound after dropping to over 1-Year Low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 2nd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower overall this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (17,907 contracts) with the Brazilian Real (4,253 contracts), the Mexican Peso (4,015 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,090 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (1,084 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-11,226 contracts), the EuroFX (-3,447 contracts), Canadian Dollar (-3,961 contracts), the British Pound (-1,787 contracts), Bitcoin (-530 contracts) and with the New Zealand Dollar (-369 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Round Up: Australian Dollar Bets rebound after dropping to over 1-Year Low

Highlighting this week’s currency speculative data with the Australian Dollar, which saw a strong gain this week by over 17,000 contracts. This was the first increase in the last five weeks for the Australian Dollar positions and brings the overall speculative sentiment level to -82,683 contracts. The Aussie positioning last week dropped to over -100,000 contracts which was the lowest level of the past 71 weeks, dating back to April 16th of 2024. Overall, the Australian Dollar speculative position continues to remain in an extreme weak speculator position and the Aussie speculative bets have now been in a negative position for 38 consecutive weeks, dating back to December of 2024.

• The US Dollar Index speculator position rose this week by over 1,000 contracts, and has now edged higher for three out of the last four weeks. Despite the little bump up in sentiment, the US Dollar Index contracts remain in bearish territory with a standing of over -5,000 net contracts. The US Dollar Index has now been in a bearish position for 12 consecutive weeks.

• The Euro currency contracts fell this week by almost -3,500 contracts, but the Euro position continues to be in a strongly bullish level. This week’s Euro speculator standing is at +119,592 contracts, and this week is the 12th consecutive week that the speculative position has been over +100,000 contracts. Overall, the Euro has been in a bullish position for 26 consecutive weeks.

• The Japanese Yen contracts fell by over -11,000 net positions this week and the positive speculator position has been slowly but steadily eroding week to week. Since ascending to a new all-time record high bullish position in April at a total of +179,212 net contracts, the bullish position has now shed -105,954 contracts over the past 18 weeks to bring the current position this week to +73,258 contracts. Overall, the Japanese Yen position has now been continuously bullish since February 4th for 31 consecutive weekly bullish positions.

• The Canadian Dollar continued to see bearish sentiment and the speculator position declined this week by almost -4,000 contracts. The Canadian Dollar spec position has now fallen in 9 out of the last 10 weeks for a 10-week total of – 55,809 contracts. The overall net position has now dropped to its most bearish level since April (a span of 21 straight weeks) with the Canadian Dollar net position at -108,976 contracts.

• Mexican peso positions this week rose for a third consecutive week and for the sixth time out of the last seven weeks. Over the last 7-week period, Peso positions have now advanced by approximately 23,000 contracts. This recent bullish sentiment has brought the Peso positions to the highest level in the past 64 weeks, dating back to June 11th of 2024. The current bullish net position for the Peso is at +73,013 contracts.

Bitcoin Leads Price Performance over last 5 days

Leading the currency market returns this week was Bitcoin, which saw a gain of 3.22%. Over the last 30 days, Bitcoin has been down by -4.35%, but over the last 90 days, Bitcoin has been up by 15%.

Next up, the Brazilian Real was higher by 0.52%. The Real is up by over 5% in the last 90 days. The Swiss Franc comes in next with a 0.23% gain on the week. The Swiss Franc is higher by 3.50 percent over the last 90 days. Similarly, the Euro was up by 0.17% this week and is up by 3.62% over the last 90 days.

The Australian Dollar was higher by a minuscule 0.12% this week and has seen a 1.63% gain over the last 90 days. The U.S. Dollar Index was virtually unchanged (+0.04%) on the week.

The British Pound Sterling was lower by -0.09% on the week. The New Zealand Dollar was down by -0.17% on the week. The Mexican Peso fell by -0.26% this week and is higher by 4.73% over the last 90 days. The Japanese Yen fell by -0.34% on the week, while the Canadian Dollar saw the biggest decline with a -0.85% shortfall in trading this week.

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Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by EuroFX, Brazilian Real & Japanese Yen

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (74 percent), the Brazilian Real (71 percent) and the Japanese Yen (71 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (66 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (5 percent) and the British Pound (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (18 percent) and the Bitcoin (34 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (4.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (2.2 percent)
EuroFX (74.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (75.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (16.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (17.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (70.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (73.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (48.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (46.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (41.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (43.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (17.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (4.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (57.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (57.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (66.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (63.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (71.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (68.0 percent)
Bitcoin (33.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (44.8 percent)

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Bitcoin & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores to show where speculator bets are trending towards) showed that Bitcoin (20 percent) and the Mexican Peso (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Brazilian Real (6 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-19 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-16 percent), Japanese Yen (-9 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-3.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-5.7 percent)
EuroFX (-2.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-2.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-16.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-28.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (-9.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-5.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (0.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-8.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-18.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-14.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (-1.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-18.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-3.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-11.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (8.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (9.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (5.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (3.8 percent)
Bitcoin (20.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (44.8 percent)

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Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,021 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,084 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,105 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.3	38.4	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.3	20.1	11.3
– Net Position:	-5,021	5,790	-769
– Gross Longs:	13,645	12,109	2,799
– Gross Shorts:	18,666	6,319	3,568
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.7	97.9	19.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.7	4.0	-3.2

 

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Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 119,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,447 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 123,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	53.9	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	74.1	5.2
– Net Position:	119,592	-171,269	51,677
– Gross Longs:	255,660	455,696	95,363
– Gross Shorts:	136,068	626,965	43,686
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.3	22.9	83.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.3	2.2	-1.1

 

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British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -33,140 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,787 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,353 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.6	51.9	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.2	37.8	13.3
– Net Position:	-33,140	31,804	1,336
– Gross Longs:	76,062	117,507	31,465
– Gross Shorts:	109,202	85,703	30,129
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.6	77.0	65.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	15.5	-8.1

 

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Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 73,258 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,226 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,484 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.2	36.9	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	55.3	9.1
– Net Position:	73,258	-76,256	2,998
– Gross Longs:	174,774	152,763	40,872
– Gross Shorts:	101,516	229,019	37,874
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.8	31.7	49.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.2	10.4	-18.1

 

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Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -25,888 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,090 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,978 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.4	72.9	16.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.4	32.7	24.7
– Net Position:	-25,888	32,459	-6,571
– Gross Longs:	8,401	58,949	13,448
– Gross Shorts:	34,289	26,490	20,019
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.4	52.4	50.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	9.8	-26.3

 

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Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -108,976 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,961 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,015 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	76.9	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.7	25.7	12.8
– Net Position:	-108,976	115,358	-6,382
– Gross Longs:	16,584	173,237	22,486
– Gross Shorts:	125,560	57,879	28,868
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.8	61.1	25.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	19.3	-14.9

 

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Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -82,683 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 17,907 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -100,590 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	67.5	13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.7	24.8	11.2
– Net Position:	-82,683	79,114	3,569
– Gross Longs:	29,677	124,987	24,268
– Gross Shorts:	112,360	45,873	20,699
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.6	77.1	58.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	1.1	-0.9

 

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New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,474 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -369 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,105 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.7	53.8	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.5	39.0	9.7
– Net Position:	-6,474	8,096	-1,622
– Gross Longs:	17,462	29,585	3,726
– Gross Shorts:	23,936	21,489	5,348
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.0	43.2	32.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	5.4	-19.0

 

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Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 73,013 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,015 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,998 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.6	36.9	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	79.3	1.9
– Net Position:	73,013	-76,018	3,005
– Gross Longs:	101,520	66,278	6,414
– Gross Shorts:	28,507	142,296	3,409
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.0	35.1	39.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.6	-8.1	-7.1

 

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Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 33,169 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,253 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,916 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.7	45.3	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	70.8	3.4
– Net Position:	33,169	-33,825	656
– Gross Longs:	67,244	60,088	5,168
– Gross Shorts:	34,075	93,913	4,512
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.5	29.4	24.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-3.6	-16.2

 

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Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -902 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -530 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -372 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	84.1	5.0	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	87.5	2.6	3.5
– Net Position:	-902	649	253
– Gross Longs:	22,452	1,343	1,189
– Gross Shorts:	23,354	694	936
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.6	71.1	50.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.1	-13.3	-18.2

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.