By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 19th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.
The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (13,908 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (3,347 contracts), the EuroFX (3,314 contracts), the Mexican Peso (3,286 contracts), the Swiss Franc (765 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (617 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (259 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
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The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Brazilian Real (-9,172 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-6,982 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-3,002 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-458 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
Highlighting the currency’s speculator data this week was a rebound in the British Pound Sterling and a push higher in the Euro speculator bets.
First off, the British Pound Sterling bets surged this week by almost +14,000 contracts. This follows five straight weeks of declines that had brought the Sterling contracts from a positive bullish position as recently as July 22nd into a bearish position that has persisted for the past four weeks. Previously, the GBP speculator position had been in a bullish standing for 22 consecutive weeks from February until July 22nd.
Helping to dent the British Pound Sterling sentiment was an interest rate cut in early August by the Bank of England. Despite the bearish sentiment in the Sterling, the exchange rate for the British Pound against the US Dollar has been higher on the year and has touched the highest levels since 2021, around the 1.3800 level.
So far throughout 2025, the Pound Sterling is up by roughly 11% against the US Dollar and could see further gains as the US Federal Reserve hinted there could be rate cuts coming for the US economy. In fact, 75% of market participants are expecting a 25-basis interest rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Next up, the Euro currency speculator position rose this week by a modest +3,304 contracts. This breaks a streak of four straight weeks of declines and pushes the current speculator standing to the highest level of the past three weeks. The Euro speculator positioning continues to be highly bullish as spec positions have been over +100,000 contracts for 10 consecutive weeks, with this week’s total being +118,745 bullish contracts. Overall, the Euro has now been in a bullish position for 24 straight weeks after turning bullish on March 11th.
In the exchange rate prices, the Euro has been higher by approximately 15% against the US Dollar this year. Currently, the Euro trades at the 1.1739 exchange rate against the US Dollar and has topped out around 1.1890 this year, which was the highest level seen since August of 2021.
Currency Exchange Rates: Mexican Peso leads price changes for last 5 days
The weekly price performance of the major currencies over the last 5 days showed that the Mexican Peso led the way with a weekly rise of 0.82%. The Swiss Franc was next with an increase of 0.66% on the week.
The Yen and the Euro were both slightly above no change on the week, with changes of 0.19% and 0.16%, respectively. The US Dollar Index was virtually unchanged with a -0.04% change. Same with the Canadian Dollar, which had a decline of -0.10% decline for the week.
The British Pound was slightly down with a -0.27% dip. The Australian Dollar was lower by -0.30%, Bitcoin fell by -0.31% and the Brazilian Real dipped by -0.45%. Finally, the New Zealand Dollar saw the largest shortfall on the week with a -0.99% decline.
Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (74 percent) and the Japanese Yen (72 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (69 percent), Mexican Peso (62 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (60 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, the US Dollar Index (2 percent) and the Australian Dollar (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the British Pound (20 percent) and the Bitcoin (27 percent).
3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (2.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (1.8 percent)
EuroFX (74.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (72.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (20.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (72.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (71.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (45.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (44.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (46.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (48.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (9.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (13.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (59.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (59.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (61.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (60.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (69.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (76.7 percent)
Bitcoin (27.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (37.0 percent)
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (26 percent) and the Mexican Peso (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies.
The British Pound (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-15 percent), Australian Dollar (-15 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-4.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-4.6 percent)
EuroFX (-0.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (3.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-27.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-33.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-10.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-14.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-10.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-8.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-9.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-12.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (-14.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-12.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-10.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-10.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (4.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (3.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (-15.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-10.3 percent)
Bitcoin (26.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (21.5 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 39.3 | 39.0 | 14.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 60.0 | 21.5 | 10.8 |
| – Net Position: | -5,988 | 5,060 | 928 |
| – Gross Longs: | 11,359 | 11,278 | 4,046 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 17,347 | 6,218 | 3,118 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 2.4 | 96.3 | 43.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -4.6 | 0.7 | 23.2 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| EURO Currency Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 30.6 | 54.8 | 11.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 16.2 | 75.0 | 5.6 |
| – Net Position: | 118,745 | -166,431 | 47,686 |
| – Gross Longs: | 252,719 | 452,297 | 94,142 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 133,974 | 618,728 | 46,456 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.9 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 2.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 74.0 | 24.5 | 75.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -0.7 | 3.7 | -19.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| BRITISH POUND Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 37.0 | 47.2 | 14.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 48.4 | 37.8 | 12.9 |
| – Net Position: | -25,185 | 20,792 | 4,393 |
| – Gross Longs: | 81,303 | 103,816 | 32,702 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 106,488 | 83,024 | 28,309 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 20.4 | 72.5 | 71.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -27.8 | 26.6 | -12.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| JAPANESE YEN Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 48.2 | 40.1 | 10.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 26.0 | 63.0 | 9.8 |
| – Net Position: | 77,581 | -79,882 | 2,301 |
| – Gross Longs: | 168,363 | 139,967 | 36,614 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 90,782 | 219,849 | 34,313 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.9 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 72.0 | 30.8 | 49.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -10.6 | 12.3 | -23.1 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| SWISS FRANC Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 8.1 | 75.4 | 16.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 42.2 | 32.3 | 25.6 |
| – Net Position: | -27,278 | 34,522 | -7,244 |
| – Gross Longs: | 6,459 | 60,354 | 13,224 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 33,737 | 25,832 | 20,468 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 2.3 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 45.6 | 55.8 | 48.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -10.3 | 22.4 | -36.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 8.6 | 74.8 | 10.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 50.8 | 29.1 | 14.2 |
| – Net Position: | -93,079 | 100,818 | -7,739 |
| – Gross Longs: | 19,028 | 165,165 | 23,694 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 112,107 | 64,347 | 31,433 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 2.6 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 46.8 | 55.8 | 21.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -9.7 | 13.8 | -30.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 17.0 | 66.9 | 12.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 68.1 | 16.7 | 11.7 |
| – Net Position: | -94,887 | 93,396 | 1,491 |
| – Gross Longs: | 31,668 | 124,358 | 23,253 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 126,555 | 30,962 | 21,762 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 4.0 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 9.0 | 85.6 | 53.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -14.6 | 15.0 | -12.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 27.3 | 53.5 | 8.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 35.9 | 42.9 | 11.0 |
| – Net Position: | -4,070 | 5,069 | -999 |
| – Gross Longs: | 12,986 | 25,428 | 4,229 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 17,056 | 20,359 | 5,228 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 59.8 | 39.8 | 40.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -10.4 | 13.5 | -38.4 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| MEXICAN PESO Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 56.5 | 37.9 | 4.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 16.9 | 79.7 | 2.0 |
| – Net Position: | 64,525 | -67,928 | 3,403 |
| – Gross Longs: | 91,974 | 61,700 | 6,638 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 27,449 | 129,628 | 3,235 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.4 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 2.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 61.7 | 39.3 | 41.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 4.8 | -4.1 | -8.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| BRAZIL REAL Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 58.5 | 34.5 | 3.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 29.8 | 66.1 | 1.0 |
| – Net Position: | 30,410 | -33,494 | 3,084 |
| – Gross Longs: | 61,948 | 36,559 | 4,144 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 31,538 | 70,053 | 1,060 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.0 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 3.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 69.2 | 29.7 | 38.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -15.1 | 15.8 | -6.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| BITCOIN Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 79.6 | 5.4 | 5.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 83.8 | 2.7 | 3.6 |
| – Net Position: | -1,200 | 758 | 442 |
| – Gross Longs: | 23,064 | 1,552 | 1,493 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 24,264 | 794 | 1,051 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 2.0 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 27.3 | 73.5 | 60.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 26.2 | -25.0 | -5.9 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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