By InvestMacro
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 15th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.
The COT currency market speculator bets were decisively lower this week as two out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (7,625 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (321 contracts) also showing a positive week.
The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Brazilian Real (-24,798 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-12,573 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-4,956 contracts), the British Pound (-4,003 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-2,486 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,286 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-605 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-441 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-50 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.
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Highlighting the week for the currency markets this week was the Euro bets rising higher as well as a modest US Dollar Index comeback over the past three weeks.
The biggest mover with gains in speculative bets was the Euro which advanced for a second straight week and has now risen for eight out of the past ten weeks (for a 10-week improvement by +52,502 contracts). These gains have pushed the net speculator standing (currently at +128,221 contracts) to the highest level in 83-weeks, dating back to December 2023.
The US Dollar Index was the only other gainer in speculative bets on the week and the USD positions have risen for three straight weeks. Despite these gains, the US Dollar Index standing still remains in a small bearish position currently at -3,665 net contracts.
Elsewhere, the Brazilian Real saw a big drop in speculative positions by almost -25,000 contracts. The Brazilian Real positioning has been up and down over the last 10 weeks with big gains and big retreats. Currently, the Brazilian Real still has a positive net speculative position of almost +25,000 contracts.
The Japanese Yen saw another fall in speculator bets this week, with its overall net position standing at +103,582 contracts. This is down from the all-time high that was reached in April near +180,000 contracts. The Yen position has been clearly softening but still remains historically bullish with contracts over +100,000.
FX Price Changes this week
Overall, the Forex markets were pretty subdued in price changes for the week. The US Dollar Index was the only riser on the week and edged higher for a second week, up by approximately 0.70%. The Australian Dollar was the biggest decliner with a fall by over -1% on the week while the Japanese Yen was close to a -1% decline followed by the New Zealand Dollar, which fell by almost -0.75%.
The US Dollar Index has made some gains over the last two weeks but prices stalled out around 98.60 on the upside this week and settled back down to end the week at 98.20. The U.S. Dollar Index is still down by over 10% since the beginning of the year and remains under that 100.00 psychological price level.
The Japanese Yen’s price uptrend has stalled and the currency has now fallen for three straight weeks (vs the USD). Meanwhile, the other currencies like the Euro, British Pound Sterling, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Brazilian Real, Mexican Peso and the Australian Dollar all saw slight declines on the week but still trade close to their highest levels of the year.
Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (79 percent) and the EuroFX (78 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (69 percent), Brazilian Real (64 percent) and the Swiss Franc (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Bitcoin (0 percent) and the US Dollar Index (5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (23 percent) and the British Pound (46 percent).
3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (5.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (4.4 percent)
EuroFX (77.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (74.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (46.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (48.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (79.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (82.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (55.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (55.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (54.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (55.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (23.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (23.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (68.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (70.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (54.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (56.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (64.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (84.3 percent)
Bitcoin (0.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (1.1 percent)
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (32 percent) and the EuroFX (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (15 percent) and the Swiss Franc (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.
The Japanese Yen (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Dollar Index (-9 percent), Australian Dollar (-8 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-9.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-8.4 percent)
EuroFX (17.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (15.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-2.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-1.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-13.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-13.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (6.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (6.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (15.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (14.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-8.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-9.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (31.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (33.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (-7.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-3.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (-5.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (1.7 percent)
Bitcoin (-3.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-3.4 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 46.2 | 37.5 | 8.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 56.6 | 24.9 | 10.9 |
| – Net Position: | -3,665 | 4,422 | -757 |
| – Gross Longs: | 16,262 | 13,186 | 3,065 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 19,927 | 8,764 | 3,822 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 5.1 | 95.4 | 20.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -9.2 | 6.9 | 11.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| EURO Currency Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 29.5 | 55.0 | 11.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 13.9 | 77.5 | 5.1 |
| – Net Position: | 128,221 | -184,215 | 55,994 |
| – Gross Longs: | 242,096 | 451,525 | 97,608 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 113,875 | 635,740 | 41,614 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.1 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 2.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 77.6 | 18.4 | 92.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 17.3 | -15.7 | 1.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| BRITISH POUND Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 53.9 | 26.7 | 18.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 38.3 | 46.7 | 14.0 |
| – Net Position: | 29,191 | -37,481 | 8,290 |
| – Gross Longs: | 100,980 | 49,932 | 34,471 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 71,789 | 87,413 | 26,181 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.4 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 46.3 | 48.3 | 79.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -2.9 | 4.8 | -11.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| JAPANESE YEN Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 51.5 | 33.8 | 13.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 19.3 | 68.3 | 11.2 |
| – Net Position: | 103,582 | -110,846 | 7,264 |
| – Gross Longs: | 165,444 | 108,744 | 43,283 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 61,862 | 219,590 | 36,019 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.7 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 79.2 | 23.0 | 61.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -13.1 | 16.3 | -38.6 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| SWISS FRANC Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 13.4 | 66.7 | 19.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 43.9 | 35.7 | 20.3 |
| – Net Position: | -22,637 | 23,016 | -379 |
| – Gross Longs: | 9,959 | 49,559 | 14,677 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 32,596 | 26,543 | 15,056 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 1.9 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 55.0 | 37.0 | 77.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 6.9 | -4.7 | -2.4 |
The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -74,094 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,486 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -71,608 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 10.8 | 69.6 | 13.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 47.4 | 33.7 | 13.1 |
| – Net Position: | -74,094 | 72,766 | 1,328 |
| – Gross Longs: | 21,924 | 141,093 | 27,836 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 96,018 | 68,327 | 26,508 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 2.1 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 54.8 | 44.5 | 47.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 15.4 | -16.0 | 10.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 14.1 | 64.5 | 16.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 63.9 | 16.3 | 14.4 |
| – Net Position: | -74,919 | 72,528 | 2,391 |
| – Gross Longs: | 21,233 | 97,063 | 24,040 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 96,152 | 24,535 | 21,649 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 4.0 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 23.1 | 73.2 | 55.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -8.3 | 6.8 | 1.1 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 39.6 | 38.2 | 10.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 31.0 | 47.8 | 9.7 |
| – Net Position: | 3,635 | -4,003 | 368 |
| – Gross Longs: | 16,623 | 16,041 | 4,429 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 12,988 | 20,044 | 4,061 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.3 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 68.7 | 29.6 | 58.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 31.6 | -31.0 | 3.8 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| MEXICAN PESO Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 55.7 | 38.6 | 5.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 25.5 | 72.5 | 1.7 |
| – Net Position: | 50,122 | -56,173 | 6,051 |
| – Gross Longs: | 92,332 | 63,981 | 8,820 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 42,210 | 120,154 | 2,769 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.2 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 3.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 54.3 | 45.3 | 56.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -7.3 | 5.5 | 19.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| BRAZIL REAL Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 63.9 | 30.4 | 5.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 38.5 | 59.9 | 0.9 |
| – Net Position: | 24,172 | -28,068 | 3,896 |
| – Gross Longs: | 60,809 | 28,965 | 4,761 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 36,637 | 57,033 | 865 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.7 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 5.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 64.2 | 34.1 | 42.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -5.4 | 4.7 | 4.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| BITCOIN Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 77.6 | 7.3 | 5.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 85.5 | 1.1 | 3.4 |
| – Net Position: | -2,486 | 1,927 | 559 |
| – Gross Longs: | 24,282 | 2,287 | 1,629 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 26,768 | 360 | 1,070 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 6.4 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.0 | 99.5 | 66.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -3.7 | -0.5 | 10.2 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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