The World Bank downgraded its global economic growth expectations. The Australian Index renewed its historical maximum

At the end of the trading day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.25%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.55%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed higher by 0.66%. The US stocks rose on Tuesday as investors kept a close eye on trade talks between the US and China, boosted by comments from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who said the talks were going “very, very well”. Energy led sector gains, followed by consumer staples and health care, while industrials lagged. Technology stocks were strong, with Tesla jumping 5.7% and leading the large-company gains.

The World Bank downgraded its 2025 global growth expectations to 2.3% from 2.7% projected in January, which would be the weakest in 17 years except for the 2009 and 2020 recessions. For 2026, global growth is expected at 2.4%, also below the 2.7% previously expected. According to the bank, global growth is slowing due to a significant increase in trade barriers and the pervasive impact of global policy uncertainty. The US GDP growth expectations for 2025 was revised downward to 1.4% from 2.3% in January. Projections for China were left unchanged at 4.5%. The Eurozone and Japan are expected to grow by 0.7%, down 0.3 pp and 0.5 pp respectively. India’s GDP is expected to grow by 6.3% (vs. 6.7%), while Mexico’s growth has also been revised down to 0.2% from 1.5%.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.77%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.17%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) lost 0.21%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.24%.

WTI crude oil prices fell below $65 a barrel on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous session, pressured by higher expectations for global inventory growth. In its latest short-term prognosis, the EIA predicts oil inventories growth will average 0.8 million barrels per day in 2025, up 0.4 million barrels per day from last month. According to the EIA, slowing oil demand growth combined with rising production is expected to cause global production to exceed consumption.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up 0.32%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.18%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was 0.08% cheaper and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.84%.

The ASX 200 Index (AU200) rose 0.4% to 8,620 on Wednesday, hitting a new record high amid optimism over US-China trade talks and hopes of further RBA rate cuts. Markets now estimate a 97% chance of a 25bp rate cut in July, with futures suggesting an overall rate easing of 75bp to 3.1% by the end of the year. This sentiment came after a string of weak economic data, including GDP growth of just 0.2%. Additional pressure came from a strengthening US dollar ahead of key US inflation data due for release today, which could affect the Fed’s rate outlook.