Most of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration take effect today

On Tuesday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index was down 0.03%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.38%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) added 0.82%. Uncertainty over President Trump’s upcoming tariffs and weak economic data have kept investors on edge. On Wednesday, the White House will announce retaliatory tariffs and other fees. The possibility of 20% tariffs on most US imports has raised concerns, and analysts warn that the market may underestimate trade risks.

Despite ongoing trade uncertainty, the Mexican peso (MXN) is showing resilience, supported by easing US recession fears and President Sheinbaum’s success in securing a softer tariff stance from Washington. While the recent 50bps rate cut by the Bank of Mexico and signals of further easing could put pressure on the currency, stable local macroeconomic indicators such as business confidence holding above contractionary levels and stable gross fixed investment are keeping downside risks in check.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.70%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 1.10% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.23%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.61%. Eurozone inflation eased to 2.2% y/y, which may support expectations of an ECB rate cut, though risks from trade tensions remain.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell to $33.8 an ounce, retreating from a five-month high of $34.58 reached on March 28, as investors awaited President Donald Trump’s announcement of retaliatory tariffs to take effect on Wednesday. Market participants weighed fears of an escalating global trade war that could dampen industrial demand for silver against its appeal as a safe-haven source amid growing concerns about slowing economic growth.

WTI crude oil prices fell to around $71.2 a barrel on Tuesday amid concerns that President Donald Trump’s widening trade war will dampen energy demand. Trump has said the retaliatory tariffs he will announce on Wednesday will apply to all countries, not just those with the biggest trade imbalance with the US. However, potential supply risks could cushion oil’s fall after Trump’s latest threats against Russia and Iran.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up 0.02%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 0.27%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 0.38%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 1.04%. Analysts at Goldman Sachs warned that manufacturing activity in China could come under pressure in the coming months due to additional trade barriers.

The New Zealand Dollar rose to USD 0.572 on Wednesday, posting gains for the second consecutive session despite the upcoming US announcement of retaliatory tariffs today. While New Zealand’s direct trade with the US is minimal, its economy remains highly sensitive to fluctuations in global trade due to its heavy reliance on exports. Domestically, expectations of further policy easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand remain, with markets expecting at least two rate cuts before the end of the year.