By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 10th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.
The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.
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Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (23,418 contracts) with the British Pound (7,799 contracts), the Swiss Franc (6,102 contracts), the Mexican Peso (3,744 contracts), the Brazilian Real (1,021 contracts) and Bitcoin (875 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-22,208 contracts), the EuroFX (-18,084 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-12,916 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-4,899 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-170 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the recent large drop in the speculator’s positioning for the New Zealand ‘Kiwi’ Dollar.
Large speculative New Zealand Dollar (NZD) currency positions fell this week by almost -5,000 net contracts and the NZD net positions have now declined in nine out of the past ten weeks. This ten-week drop totals -30,177 contracts and has taken the NZD from a positive net position of +1,970 contracts on October 1st to this week’s net position of +28,207 contracts.
This shortfall in positions has knocked the NZD down to the most bearish level in the past two hundred and sixty-three weeks, dating back to November 26th of 2019. Our strength indicator, which measures a market’s speculator level compared to it’s past three years, shows the NZD at a 0 percent strength score or at a bottom for the past three year’s range.
Nudging the NZD speculator sentiment lower has been recent cuts in interest rates by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and economic weakness. The RBNZ dropped its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points in November to 4.25 percent as the bank stated, “Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and output continues to be below its potential. With excess productive capacity in the economy, inflation pressures have eased.” The RBNZ also reduced the interest rate by 50 basis points in October and by 25 basis points in August. This lowering of interest rates can hurt a currency because lower interest rates can spur traders to sell the currency to find other countries (currencies) with higher interest rates. The higher interest rate will provide a higher interest return and, in turn, if enough traders join in, can help spur the higher interest currency higher as well on a capital gains basis.
The NZD exchange rate versus the US Dollar has been on the decline in tandem with the fall in speculator bets over these past three months. The NZDUSD closed at a multi-year low of 0.5762 this week which marked the lowest level since October of 2022. The NZD had been as high as 0.6385 in September but the rate cuts and economic outlook has pushed the Kiwi lower in ten out of the past eleven weekly closes for an approximate decline by 10 percent versus the US Dollar.
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (84 percent) and the Australian Dollar (82 percent) lead the currency markets this week.
On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (0 percent), the EuroFX (0 percent), the US Dollar Index (0 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (7 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (0.4 percent)
EuroFX (0.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (6.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (48.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (44.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (83.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (74.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (30.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (17.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (6.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (16.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (82.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (91.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (0.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (8.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (32.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (30.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (36.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (35.6 percent)
Bitcoin (35.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (16.5 percent)
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (25 percent) and the Japanese Yen (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends and are the only positive movers for the currencies.
The New Zealand Dollar (-44 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-18 percent), Mexican Peso (-14 percent) and the Australian Dollar (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-10.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-8.2 percent)
EuroFX (-9.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-11.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-17.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-24.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (20.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-4.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (-2.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-17.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-6.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-8.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (-13.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-4.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-44.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-39.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (-13.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-10.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (-11.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-13.9 percent)
Bitcoin (25.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (1.1 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 56.1 | 26.9 | 9.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 63.9 | 22.2 | 6.8 |
| – Net Position: | -3,224 | 1,940 | 1,284 |
| – Gross Longs: | 22,883 | 10,986 | 4,052 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 26,107 | 9,046 | 2,768 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.0 | 97.9 | 36.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -10.2 | 6.4 | 17.2 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| EURO Currency Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 21.6 | 62.2 | 11.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 32.0 | 54.7 | 8.7 |
| – Net Position: | -75,573 | 54,716 | 20,857 |
| – Gross Longs: | 157,375 | 452,311 | 84,363 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 232,948 | 397,595 | 63,506 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.0 | 100.0 | 17.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -9.6 | 7.9 | 4.6 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| BRITISH POUND Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 33.0 | 52.3 | 8.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 24.3 | 59.3 | 10.2 |
| – Net Position: | 27,125 | -21,904 | -5,221 |
| – Gross Longs: | 102,763 | 162,912 | 26,568 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 75,638 | 184,816 | 31,789 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.4 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 48.3 | 52.7 | 51.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -17.6 | 20.8 | -27.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| JAPANESE YEN Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 35.6 | 42.9 | 13.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 26.3 | 51.8 | 13.8 |
| – Net Position: | 25,752 | -24,598 | -1,154 |
| – Gross Longs: | 97,938 | 117,775 | 36,894 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 72,186 | 142,373 | 38,048 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.4 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 83.9 | 19.4 | 60.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 20.2 | -19.4 | 5.1 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| SWISS FRANC Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 4.4 | 81.5 | 8.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 36.4 | 33.7 | 23.9 |
| – Net Position: | -34,992 | 52,309 | -17,317 |
| – Gross Longs: | 4,796 | 89,188 | 8,877 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 39,788 | 36,879 | 26,194 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.1 to 1 | 2.4 to 1 | 0.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 30.0 | 84.8 | 0.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -2.0 | 17.3 | -43.2 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 7.1 | 81.7 | 7.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 51.6 | 33.7 | 10.9 |
| – Net Position: | -181,554 | 195,936 | -14,382 |
| – Gross Longs: | 29,034 | 333,506 | 30,191 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 210,588 | 137,570 | 44,573 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.1 to 1 | 2.4 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 6.6 | 96.8 | 0.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -6.3 | 8.9 | -20.1 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 37.1 | 46.8 | 11.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 33.6 | 47.1 | 14.4 |
| – Net Position: | 8,485 | -735 | -7,750 |
| – Gross Longs: | 88,751 | 111,884 | 26,561 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 80,266 | 112,619 | 34,311 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.1 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 82.3 | 29.5 | 28.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -13.5 | 22.1 | -47.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 20.0 | 71.2 | 3.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 48.7 | 38.8 | 7.3 |
| – Net Position: | -28,207 | 31,847 | -3,640 |
| – Gross Longs: | 19,605 | 69,879 | 3,520 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 47,812 | 38,032 | 7,160 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.0 | 100.0 | 7.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -44.2 | 45.4 | -28.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| MEXICAN PESO Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 38.4 | 46.7 | 2.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 33.4 | 50.5 | 3.6 |
| – Net Position: | 7,928 | -6,173 | -1,755 |
| – Gross Longs: | 61,643 | 75,013 | 4,073 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 53,715 | 81,186 | 5,828 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.1 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 32.8 | 71.0 | 13.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -13.8 | 13.0 | 9.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| BRAZIL REAL Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 45.4 | 48.0 | 3.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 68.6 | 23.7 | 4.3 |
| – Net Position: | -16,393 | 17,176 | -783 |
| – Gross Longs: | 32,187 | 33,982 | 2,279 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 48,580 | 16,806 | 3,062 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 2.0 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 36.5 | 65.3 | 16.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -11.5 | 12.0 | -3.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| BITCOIN Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 82.9 | 4.6 | 4.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 84.8 | 4.0 | 3.0 |
| – Net Position: | -720 | 236 | 484 |
| – Gross Longs: | 31,168 | 1,721 | 1,627 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 31,888 | 1,485 | 1,143 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 35.6 | 69.3 | 46.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 25.1 | -25.1 | -10.6 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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