British Pound Speculators sharply boosted bullish bets on BOE rate hike

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 20th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (39,873 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (20,883 contracts), the Australian Dollar (12,129 contracts), Canadian Dollar (3,125 contracts), Swiss Franc (192 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (863 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-7,173 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (-3,680 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,828 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-254 contracts) and Bitcoin (-346 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

British Pound Speculators sharply boosted bullish bets on BOE rate hike

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week was this week’s sharp boost in the speculator’s positioning of the British Pound Sterling. Large speculative Pound positions jumped by over +39,000 contracts this week and halted a two-week streak of declines.

The Pound weekly positions rise was the largest one-week increase on record, according to the CFTC data that goes back to 1988. The gain has pushed the overall net position now to over +46,608 contracts and the highest standing since April 17th of 2018, a span of 270 weeks.

The Pound’s positioning was helped out by the anticipation of the Bank of England’s latest interest rate increase that was by 50 basis points on Thursday. This brought the bank rate to 5 percent and its highest sitting in the past 15 years.

The Pound Sterling exchange rate against the US Dollar reacted strongly and touched it’s highest level (1.2874) since April of 2022 after the interest rate announcement. However, the Pound closed out Thursday and Friday lower with the weekly close at the 1.2714 exchange rate.

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Strength Scores led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the British Pound (100 percent) and the Mexican Peso (100 percent) lead the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (84 percent), EuroFX (74 percent) and the Brazilian Real (69 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (3 percent) and the comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Canadian Dollar (23 percent), Australian Dollar (39 percent) and the Swiss Franc (42 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (49.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (48.3 percent)
EuroFX (74.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (76.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (100.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (68.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (2.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (4.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (41.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (41.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (23.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (20.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (38.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (27.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (46.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (51.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (87.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (68.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (69.1 percent)
Bitcoin (83.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (89.9 percent)

 

British Pound & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (33 percent) and the Mexican Peso (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (8 percent), the US Dollar Index (6 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EuroFX (-13 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (6.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (4.4 percent)
EuroFX (-13.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-8.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (33.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (4.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-28.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-22.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-5.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (8.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (12.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-0.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-15.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (5.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (2.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (18.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (12.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (-11.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-11.8 percent)
Bitcoin (-0.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (10.0 percent)

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Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,861 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,998 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.8	3.1	15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.4	63.8	9.5
– Net Position:	14,861	-16,574	1,713
– Gross Longs:	20,972	835	4,318
– Gross Shorts:	6,111	17,409	2,605
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.7	49.4	35.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-6.3	2.7

 

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Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 144,649 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,173 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 151,822 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	54.4	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.6	80.7	6.1
– Net Position:	144,649	-192,723	48,074
– Gross Longs:	229,399	398,646	92,826
– Gross Shorts:	84,750	591,369	44,752
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.1	25.4	55.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.4	14.0	-10.8

 

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British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 46,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 39,873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,735 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.8	32.5	16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.3	58.6	10.8
– Net Position:	46,608	-59,003	12,395
– Gross Longs:	101,567	73,692	36,837
– Gross Shorts:	54,959	132,695	24,442
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	82.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.1	-30.4	10.6

 

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Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -107,656 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,680 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -103,976 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.5	73.4	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.6	23.9	16.2
– Net Position:	-107,656	118,272	-10,616
– Gross Longs:	32,244	175,201	27,983
– Gross Shorts:	139,900	56,929	38,599
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.6	93.4	31.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.7	24.0	-5.0

 

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Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,851 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,043 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	43.1	33.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.5	28.6	34.8
– Net Position:	-4,851	5,236	-385
– Gross Longs:	8,322	15,585	12,170
– Gross Shorts:	13,173	10,349	12,555
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.8	53.6	56.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	0.8	-0.3

 

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Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -33,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,125 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,668 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.3	62.4	20.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.5	52.2	12.8
– Net Position:	-33,543	18,758	14,785
– Gross Longs:	28,187	114,925	38,400
– Gross Shorts:	61,730	96,167	23,615
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.3	68.9	55.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.1	-15.8	32.2

 

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Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -49,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	52.9	14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.6	18.9	15.2
– Net Position:	-49,616	50,986	-1,370
– Gross Longs:	45,743	79,300	21,444
– Gross Shorts:	95,359	28,314	22,814
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.8	56.9	49.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	-4.4	15.4

 

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New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,659 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,828 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -831 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.5	57.3	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.7	43.6	14.1
– Net Position:	-2,659	4,441	-1,782
– Gross Longs:	10,867	18,573	2,794
– Gross Shorts:	13,526	14,132	4,576
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.4	57.0	28.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.2	0.4	-24.7

 

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Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 99,718 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 20,883 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,835 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.8	42.1	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.5	87.9	2.2
– Net Position:	99,718	-103,040	3,322
– Gross Longs:	121,005	94,733	8,262
– Gross Shorts:	21,287	197,773	4,940
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	32.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.1	-15.8	-20.3

 

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Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 25,902 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -254 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,156 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.9	20.2	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	64.4	15.3
– Net Position:	25,902	-23,418	-2,484
– Gross Longs:	36,535	10,685	5,625
– Gross Shorts:	10,633	34,103	8,109
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.7	35.9	24.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.1	16.1	-35.0

 

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Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 397 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -346 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.1	1.6	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	73.5	7.5	4.6
– Net Position:	397	-927	530
– Gross Longs:	11,932	250	1,259
– Gross Shorts:	11,535	1,177	729
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.9	22.5	25.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.5	8.6	-4.0

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.