Mid-Week Technical Outlook: Oil Hammered Ahead Of Fed

Oil markets have been plunged into a bloodbath over the past 24 hours.

The global commodity shed almost 3% this morning, extending a 5% drop on Tuesday after disappointing US economic data fuelled fears of a recession. With oil bears drawing ample strength from weak US factory data and renewed concerns about the US banking sector, further downside could be on the cards ahead of the Fed decision later today.

In the meantime, it will be wise to keep a close eye on the pending US ISM numbers and data from the Energy Information Agency (EIA) this afternoon. If the reports reinforce fears around the US economy or the EIA data shows a rise in oil inventories, this could keep bears in the driving seat.

Looking at the technical picture, both WTI and Brent Crude are under intense pressure on the daily charts. WTI extended losses on Wednesday with bears smashing into the $70 level. A strong break and daily close below this point could open a path toward $67 and $64.33 – the lowest level hit this year. Should $70 or $67 prove to be reliable support, prices may experience a technical pullback toward $74 before resuming the downtrend.

It is a similar story for Brent. Prices are trading below the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA while the MACD trades below zero. The bearish trend is healthy with the next key level of interest found at 72.50. Below this point, prices could test $70 and potentially lower.

Since we are discussing commodities, gold secured a daily close above the $2015 resistance as downbeat US economic data and renewed banking fears sparked risk aversion. However, it may take a potent fundamental spark to push prices higher with all eyes on the Fed meeting this evening. Although the central bank is widely expected to hike rates by 25 basis points, investors will be looking for any confirmation that a pause in hikes is on the table. Whatever the outcome, it will certainly impact gold.

The solid breakout above $2015 may open the doors toward $2032 and $2047. Should prices slip back below $2000, this could trigger a decline towards $1970 and $1950, respectively.