By InvestMacro
The Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has released the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data, which provides an update view of how large traders, such as speculators and commercial entities, position themselves in the futures markets. This data is current as of Tuesday March 28th.
The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (23,025 contracts) with Copper (10,806 contracts), Silver (9,899 contracts), Platinum (848 contracts) and Palladium (254 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
Free Reports:
The only market with declines in speculator bets for the week was Steel (-484 contracts).
Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the continued bullishness for the Gold speculative positions. The large speculator position in Gold futures climbed this week for a third straight week and for the fifth time out of the past six weeks. Gold spec bets have now advanced by a total of +83,156 contracts over just the past three weeks.
The Gold position has increased from a total net position of +105,529 contracts on February 14th to a total of +181,630 contracts this week which marks the highest level in 44-weeks, dating back to May of 2022. The boost in speculator sentiment has pushed the Gold speculator strength score to 57.0 percent (0 to 100 percent over a 3-year range) while the 6-week speculator strength score trend has gained by 33.5 percent.
The Gold futures price saw a small gain this week after a small decline last week. Previously to the past two weeks, Gold futures had risen for three straight weeks and hit the highest price in just about a year over the $2,014.00 level. This week Gold futures managed to reach a high back over the $2,000.00 price level but retreated to close at $1,986.20.
| Mar-28-2023 | OI | OI-Index | Spec-Net | Spec-Index | Com-Net | COM-Index | Smalls-Net | Smalls-Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 478,611 | 26 | 181,630 | 57 | -201,508 | 46 | 19,878 | 30 |
| Silver | 117,395 | 0 | 13,361 | 37 | -21,875 | 67 | 8,514 | 14 |
| Copper | 211,889 | 52 | -1,545 | 27 | -4,924 | 69 | 6,469 | 59 |
| Palladium | 11,514 | 78 | -6,764 | 3 | 7,193 | 98 | -429 | 16 |
| Platinum | 57,244 | 32 | 10,374 | 40 | -14,781 | 63 | 4,407 | 27 |
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (58 percent) and Gold (57 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Platinum (39.5 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Palladium (3.1 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Gold (57.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (46.9 percent)
Silver (37.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (23.2 percent)
Copper (27.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (17.4 percent)
Platinum (39.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (37.6 percent)
Palladium (3.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.7 percent)
Steel (57.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (59.3 percent)
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (34 percent) and Platinum (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.
Palladium (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-4 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.
Move Statistics:
Gold (33.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (13.1 percent)
Silver (2.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (-14.4 percent)
Copper (3.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (-13.3 percent)
Platinum (10.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-2.5 percent)
Palladium (-16.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-26.9 percent)
Steel (-3.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (-1.3 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent.
| Gold Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 51.2 | 27.5 | 9.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 13.3 | 69.6 | 5.7 |
| – Net Position: | 181,630 | -201,508 | 19,878 |
| – Gross Longs: | 245,135 | 131,786 | 47,388 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 63,505 | 333,294 | 27,510 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.9 to 1 | 0.4 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 57.0 | 46.1 | 29.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 33.5 | -28.0 | -9.2 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.
| Silver Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 36.0 | 38.3 | 18.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 24.6 | 56.9 | 11.5 |
| – Net Position: | 13,361 | -21,875 | 8,514 |
| – Gross Longs: | 42,254 | 44,970 | 22,062 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 28,893 | 66,845 | 13,548 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.5 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 37.3 | 67.4 | 13.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 2.6 | 4.8 | -32.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent.
| Copper Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 26.7 | 44.3 | 8.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 27.4 | 46.6 | 5.7 |
| – Net Position: | -1,545 | -4,924 | 6,469 |
| – Gross Longs: | 56,595 | 93,920 | 18,451 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 58,140 | 98,844 | 11,982 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 27.0 | 69.2 | 59.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 3.5 | -2.2 | -8.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.
| Platinum Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 42.4 | 40.4 | 12.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 24.2 | 66.3 | 4.9 |
| – Net Position: | 10,374 | -14,781 | 4,407 |
| – Gross Longs: | 24,247 | 23,146 | 7,193 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 13,873 | 37,927 | 2,786 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.7 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 2.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 39.5 | 62.9 | 27.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 10.1 | -5.2 | -24.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent.
| Palladium Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 13.8 | 72.2 | 10.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 72.6 | 9.7 | 13.9 |
| – Net Position: | -6,764 | 7,193 | -429 |
| – Gross Longs: | 1,593 | 8,314 | 1,174 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 8,357 | 1,121 | 1,603 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 7.4 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 3.1 | 98.1 | 15.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -16.4 | 16.3 | -9.6 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent.
| Steel Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 12.1 | 76.1 | 1.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 29.5 | 59.8 | 0.3 |
| – Net Position: | -5,255 | 4,933 | 322 |
| – Gross Longs: | 3,687 | 23,103 | 422 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 8,942 | 18,170 | 100 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 4.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 57.9 | 41.4 | 61.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -3.8 | 4.1 | -11.0 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
By ForexTime UK100 ↑ over 2% in April Index could see heightened volatility BoE decision…
By JustMarkets At the end of Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.85%, and the…
By Wendy Whitman Cobb, Air University If all goes well late on May 6, 2024,…
By Christopher Decker, University of Nebraska Omaha The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at…
By JustMarkets At Tuesday's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.23%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was…
By RoboForex Analytical Department Brent crude oil prices have dropped to $83.95 per barrel on…
This website uses cookies.
