COT Soft Commodities Speculators boosted their Sugar & Cocoa bets last week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The COT release was delayed due to a Federal Holiday last week.

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Sugar & Cocoa led the Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were slightly higher last week as six out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had decreases in contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Sugar (21,089 contracts) with Cocoa (20,189 contracts), Cotton (4,325 contracts), Soybean Oil (2,871 contracts), Soybean Meal (1,726 contracts) and Soybeans (1,287 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The softs market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Corn (-39,234 contracts) with Coffee (-6,866 contracts), Live Cattle (-6,037 contracts), Lean Hogs (-4,688 contracts) and Wheat (-1,448 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

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Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (95.0 percent) continues to lead the soft commodity markets in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Soybean Oil (71.7 percent) comes in as the next highest soft commodity markets in strength scores followed by Corn (68.6 percent).

On the downside, Wheat (0.0 percent) and Coffee (3.6 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in bearish extreme levels at the moment (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (68.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (73.6 percent)
Sugar (44.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (38.9 percent)
Coffee (3.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (12.4 percent)
Soybeans (40.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (39.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (71.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (69.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (95.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (94.0 percent)
Live Cattle (51.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (58.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (51.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (56.4 percent)
Cotton (26.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (23.3 percent)
Cocoa (28.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (8.7 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (1.8 percent)

Soybean Oil tops the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Soybean Oil (31.0 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets this week. Cocoa (21.5 percent) and Sugar (10.6 percent) are the next top movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-63.1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was Wheat (-25.1 percent) followed by Cotton (-15.8 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (0.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (4.5 percent)
Sugar (10.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (8.1 percent)
Coffee (-63.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-49.7 percent)
Soybeans (2.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (0.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (31.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (27.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (3.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-3.9 percent)
Live Cattle (-4.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-8.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (1.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-5.0 percent)
Cotton (-15.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-20.3 percent)
Cocoa (21.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-2.3 percent)
Wheat (-25.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-14.8 percent)

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Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 301,554 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -39,234 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 340,788 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.5	44.3	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.2	61.4	12.1
– Net Position:	301,554	-254,182	-47,372
– Gross Longs:	437,467	657,281	132,893
– Gross Shorts:	135,913	911,463	180,265
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.6	35.7	15.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.6	-3.5	11.4

 

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SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 90,182 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 21,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,093 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.4	52.3	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.7	68.3	6.0
– Net Position:	90,182	-122,561	32,379
– Gross Longs:	194,931	401,032	78,270
– Gross Shorts:	104,749	523,593	45,891
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.3	56.0	47.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.6	-15.6	30.4

 

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COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,683 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,866 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,183 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.5	50.2	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	49.3	3.6
– Net Position:	-4,683	1,912	2,771
– Gross Longs:	42,534	109,195	10,530
– Gross Shorts:	47,217	107,283	7,759
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.6	100.0	38.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-63.1	62.1	11.0

 

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SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 87,809 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,287 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 86,522 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.9	51.7	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	61.6	11.7
– Net Position:	87,809	-60,966	-26,843
– Gross Longs:	152,137	315,696	44,579
– Gross Shorts:	64,328	376,662	71,422
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.3	67.9	25.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.4	-3.3	5.1

 

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SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 99,981 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,871 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,110 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.8	43.0	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.5	68.2	5.7
– Net Position:	99,981	-112,802	12,821
– Gross Longs:	133,543	192,512	38,438
– Gross Shorts:	33,562	305,314	25,617
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.7	29.3	61.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.0	-32.5	25.5

 

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SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 121,234 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,726 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 119,508 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.7	37.5	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.1	73.5	6.4
– Net Position:	121,234	-147,596	26,362
– Gross Longs:	138,146	153,972	52,532
– Gross Shorts:	16,912	301,568	26,170
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.0	6.2	69.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-4.8	15.8

 

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LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 57,429 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,037 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,466 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.1	31.2	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.4	51.0	11.5
– Net Position:	57,429	-57,915	486
– Gross Longs:	108,040	90,893	33,924
– Gross Shorts:	50,611	148,808	33,438
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.4	34.0	98.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	0.6	12.8

 

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LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 40,862 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,688 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,550 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.5	34.1	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	50.6	13.9
– Net Position:	40,862	-31,247	-9,615
– Gross Longs:	76,465	64,349	16,565
– Gross Shorts:	35,603	95,596	26,180
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.3	56.5	46.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.3	0.4	-8.2

 

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COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 20,477 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,325 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,152 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	48.5	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	57.7	5.5
– Net Position:	20,477	-21,461	984
– Gross Longs:	66,804	114,001	13,817
– Gross Shorts:	46,327	135,462	12,833
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.5	75.1	16.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.8	15.2	-6.2

 

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COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 11,948 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 20,189 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,241 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.8	46.2	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.6	51.6	3.2
– Net Position:	11,948	-15,306	3,358
– Gross Longs:	92,594	130,491	12,348
– Gross Shorts:	80,646	145,797	8,990
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.7	72.3	30.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.5	-20.8	-7.4

 

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WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -17,214 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,448 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,766 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	38.7	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.7	31.9	10.7
– Net Position:	-17,214	23,686	-6,472
– Gross Longs:	94,154	135,610	30,937
– Gross Shorts:	111,368	111,924	37,409
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	93.4	76.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.1	27.0	4.9

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.