Soft Commodities Speculator Bets go lower led by Soybean Meal, Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

October 1, 2022

By InvestMacro

Soft Commodities Speculator Bets go lower led by Soybean Meal, Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes go lower this week led by Soybean Meal, Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other eight markets had decreases in contracts.


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Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Sugar (11,256 contracts) with Wheat (6,764 contracts) and Coffee (3,608 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The softs market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Soybean Meal (-11,395 contracts) with Lean Hogs (-10,484 contracts), Live Cattle (-9,400 contracts), Corn (-9,055 contracts), Soybeans (-4,722 contracts), Cocoa (-3,818 contracts), Soybean Oil (-2,424 contracts) and Cotton (-1,875 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-27-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,504,9913226,0804-246,8729820,79235
Gold457,061152,0810-62,13810010,0571
Silver129,000075815-6,860896,1020
Copper173,66113-27,7561628,88486-1,12819
Palladium6,0801-831181,23682-40520
Platinum58,994201619-2,525932,3640
Natural Gas943,2410-152,12433121,1356930,98954
Brent167,44414-41,2574240,4906176720
Heating Oil290,2653111,41459-21,6254810,21134
Soybeans699,3112780,05138-50,20671-29,84521
Corn1,347,27811296,62268-229,43639-67,1864
Coffee185,149144,68077-46,664271,98418
Sugar710,887248,60147-56,409577,80818
Wheat290,77122,735234,67566-7,41072

 


Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (91.5 percent) leads the soft commodity markets and remains in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Coffee (77.4 percent) and Corn (67.9 percent) come in as the next highest soft commodity markets in strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (7.2 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in a bearish extreme position with a score below 20 percent. The next markets with the lowest scores are Wheat (22.6 percent) and Soybeans (37.9 percent).

 

Strength Statistics:
Corn (67.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (69.1 percent)
Sugar (46.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (44.3 percent)
Coffee (77.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (74.3 percent)
Soybeans (37.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (39.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (40.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (42.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (91.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (97.9 percent)
Live Cattle (55.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (67.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (49.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (61.3 percent)
Cotton (45.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (46.5 percent)
Cocoa (7.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (11.0 percent)
Wheat (22.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (13.8 percent)

 

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Corn (9.8 percent), Coffee (9.7 percent) and Soybean Oil (9.6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets. Wheat (6.0 percent) and Soybean Meal (1.6 percent) round out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-20.0 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was Cocoa (-6.9 percent) followed by Cotton (-1.5 percent).

 

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (9.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (12.1 percent)
Sugar (-0.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (2.3 percent)
Coffee (9.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (9.2 percent)
Soybeans (-1.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-1.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (9.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (18.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (1.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (8.0 percent)
Live Cattle (-0.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (27.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (-20.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-0.1 percent)
Cotton (-1.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (5.3 percent)
Cocoa (-6.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-0.4 percent)
Wheat (6.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-0.8 percent)


Individual Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 296,622 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,055 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 305,677 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.944.88.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.961.913.7
– Net Position:296,622-229,436-67,186
– Gross Longs:415,961604,188117,870
– Gross Shorts:119,339833,624185,056
– Long to Short Ratio:3.5 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.939.24.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.8-9.0-7.7

 


SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 48,601 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,256 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,345 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.154.99.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.262.88.7
– Net Position:48,601-56,4097,808
– Gross Longs:171,124390,23269,802
– Gross Shorts:122,523446,64161,994
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.657.517.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.31.0-5.0

 


COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 44,680 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,608 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,072 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.044.54.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.869.73.8
– Net Position:44,680-46,6641,984
– Gross Longs:55,45482,4489,049
– Gross Shorts:10,774129,1127,065
– Long to Short Ratio:5.1 to 10.6 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.426.917.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.7-10.31.3

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 80,051 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,722 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,773 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.452.66.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.059.810.4
– Net Position:80,051-50,206-29,845
– Gross Longs:149,774367,74443,219
– Gross Shorts:69,723417,95073,064
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.9 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.971.220.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.00.42.9

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 54,987 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,424 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,411 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.548.46.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.963.55.4
– Net Position:54,987-60,9595,972
– Gross Longs:91,132196,32228,053
– Gross Shorts:36,145257,28122,081
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.8 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.761.935.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.6-8.90.7

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 115,075 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11,395 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 126,470 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.939.712.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:3.776.16.2
– Net Position:115,075-138,37123,296
– Gross Longs:129,268151,41646,999
– Gross Shorts:14,193289,78723,703
– Long to Short Ratio:9.1 to 10.5 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):91.511.053.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.6-1.3-2.1

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 60,967 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,367 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.633.211.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.253.612.0
– Net Position:60,967-58,327-2,640
– Gross Longs:112,89794,74231,567
– Gross Shorts:51,930153,06934,207
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.833.486.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.50.6-0.0

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 39,631 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,484 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,115 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.734.98.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.450.312.7
– Net Position:39,631-31,593-8,038
– Gross Longs:83,52171,74118,012
– Gross Shorts:43,890103,33426,050
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.956.154.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.021.02.9

 


COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 42,079 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,875 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,954 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.150.05.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.970.14.5
– Net Position:42,079-44,0161,937
– Gross Longs:70,391109,62911,741
– Gross Shorts:28,312153,6459,804
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.7 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.257.522.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.53.9-25.5

 


COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -9,759 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,818 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,941 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.745.24.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.843.43.5
– Net Position:-9,7595,6604,099
– Gross Longs:102,300141,68914,973
– Gross Shorts:112,059136,02910,874
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.293.137.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.95.415.1

 


WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 2,735 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,764 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,029 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.240.79.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.339.111.9
– Net Position:2,7354,675-7,410
– Gross Longs:87,885118,36027,059
– Gross Shorts:85,150113,68534,469
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.666.371.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.0-3.9-9.7

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.