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COT Week 25 Charts: Soft Commodity Speculator bets slightly lower led by Corn & Sugar

June 25, 2022

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

The soft commodities market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as six out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while five markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Live Cattle (7,378 contracts) and Cocoa (6,674 contracts) with Soybean Meal (6,540 contracts), Lean Hogs (4,673 contracts) and Coffee (2,486 contracts) also showing positive speculator contract changes for the week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-19,606 contracts) and Sugar (-7,372 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-5,868 contracts), Soybeans (-4,288 contracts), Wheat (-1,368 contracts) and Cotton (-210 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

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Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Coffee (81 percent) and Soybean Meal (80.6 percent) are in extreme bullish positions as of the latest data release. On the downside for strength scores is Lean Hogs (19.9 percent) which is just on the edge of being in a bearish extreme position and then Cocoa (20.9 percent) which is the next lowest.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that Coffee (14.5 percent) and Soybean Meal (6.3 percent) have the highest trends as of the latest data. The overall effect of this chart shows how most of the soft commodities markets have really cooled off after really strong speculator sentiment since the start of the year.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jun-21-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,658,636 0 289,502 0 -323,915 100 34,413 64
Gold 500,276 14 163,287 4 -186,929 96 23,642 14
Silver 145,356 12 18,419 7 -27,250 93 8,831 4
Copper 187,170 17 -20,938 27 18,928 72 2,010 37
Palladium 7,641 6 -4,046 0 4,511 100 -465 17
Platinum 64,946 30 1,491 6 -6,397 96 4,906 30
Natural Gas 1,030,971 0 -130,869 39 85,977 58 44,892 86
Brent 173,098 18 -38,010 47 36,052 53 1,958 36
Heating Oil 268,818 23 9,564 56 -28,204 41 18,640 63
Soybeans 745,494 32 178,379 68 -152,968 38 -25,411 28
Corn 1,512,152 23 380,169 79 -326,474 25 -53,695 12
Coffee 192,832 0 49,371 81 -52,348 22 2,977 20
Sugar 779,773 0 163,111 70 -181,280 34 18,169 30
Wheat 320,326 6 19,067 44 -15,407 38 -3,660 91

 

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 380,169 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -19,606 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 399,775 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.3 44.7 9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.2 66.3 12.9
– Net Position: 380,169 -326,474 -53,695
– Gross Longs: 504,174 675,580 140,912
– Gross Shorts: 124,005 1,002,054 194,607
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 78.6 25.4 12.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.6 12.6 1.1

 

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 163,111 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,372 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 170,483 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.1 49.2 9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.2 72.4 6.7
– Net Position: 163,111 -181,280 18,169
– Gross Longs: 227,142 383,646 70,240
– Gross Shorts: 64,031 564,926 52,071
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 70.1 33.8 30.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.9 7.5 -18.9

 

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 49,371 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,486 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,885 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.3 47.6 4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.7 74.7 2.8
– Net Position: 49,371 -52,348 2,977
– Gross Longs: 58,442 91,789 8,425
– Gross Shorts: 9,071 144,137 5,448
– Long to Short Ratio: 6.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 81.5 21.7 19.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.5 -17.0 19.8

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 178,379 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 182,667 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.3 50.5 6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.4 71.0 10.0
– Net Position: 178,379 -152,968 -25,411
– Gross Longs: 226,191 376,155 49,215
– Gross Shorts: 47,812 529,123 74,626
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.5 37.9 28.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.1 -1.6 2.5

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 67,530 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,868 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,398 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.0 52.9 8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.6 73.0 5.7
– Net Position: 67,530 -77,869 10,339
– Gross Longs: 96,861 205,007 32,564
– Gross Shorts: 29,331 282,876 22,225
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.9 48.9 52.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.0 24.5 -29.5

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 95,371 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,540 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 88,831 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.5 42.8 11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.9 72.6 5.7
– Net Position: 95,371 -119,799 24,428
– Gross Longs: 110,934 172,823 47,533
– Gross Shorts: 15,563 292,622 23,105
– Long to Short Ratio: 7.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 80.6 20.7 60.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.3 -6.1 2.6

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 40,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,744 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.1 39.7 11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.6 53.6 12.0
– Net Position: 40,122 -38,641 -1,481
– Gross Longs: 102,557 109,561 31,589
– Gross Shorts: 62,435 148,202 33,070
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.7 60.4 76.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.4 -3.9 8.8

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 12,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,673 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,386 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.6 43.4 10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.2 45.0 15.0
– Net Position: 12,059 -3,041 -9,018
– Gross Longs: 59,031 80,955 18,981
– Gross Shorts: 46,972 83,996 27,999
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 19.9 89.9 49.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.7 9.2 -18.1

 

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 66,045 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -210 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,255 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.4 39.7 8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.0 77.6 4.8
– Net Position: 66,045 -72,681 6,636
– Gross Longs: 81,410 76,251 15,830
– Gross Shorts: 15,365 148,932 9,194
– Long to Short Ratio: 5.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 64.7 35.5 54.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.0 11.7 -26.7

 

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 3,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,674 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,369 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.3 43.9 4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.2 45.5 3.7
– Net Position: 3,305 -4,856 1,551
– Gross Longs: 93,606 135,958 12,977
– Gross Shorts: 90,301 140,814 11,426
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 20.9 81.2 12.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.4 21.3 -41.9

 

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 19,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,368 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,435 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.1 39.1 10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.2 44.0 11.5
– Net Position: 19,067 -15,407 -3,660
– Gross Longs: 102,924 125,399 33,167
– Gross Shorts: 83,857 140,806 36,827
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.9 37.8 91.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.4 3.4 1.3

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.







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