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COT Week 21 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculator bets mostly lower led by Corn & Soybean Oil

May 28, 2022

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Soft Commodities market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as only three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning this week while eight markets saw lower positions. Leading the gains for the soft commodities was Sugar (12,857 contracts) and Soybean Meal (8,607 contracts) with Soybeans (4,721 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-45,895 contracts) and Soybean Oil (-16,805 contracts) with Coffee (-1,415 contracts), Live Cattle (-12,283 contracts), Lean Hogs (-407 contracts), Cotton (-6,796 contracts), Cocoa (-10,000 contracts), and Wheat (-2,462 contracts) also coming in with lower bets on the week.

 

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Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme

  • OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range
  • Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range
  • Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength
Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
May-24-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,711,863 0 334,761 11 -374,627 91 39,866 71
Gold 530,098 22 183,813 14 -211,947 82 28,134 37
Silver 146,456 13 14,103 26 -23,297 88 9,194 3
Copper 186,433 17 -19,633 28 19,288 73 345 27
Palladium 7,919 7 -3,472 2 3,800 98 -328 25
Platinum 65,824 32 1,485 5 -6,683 96 5,198 34
Natural Gas 1,107,496 6 -111,570 45 63,847 51 47,723 93
Brent 183,629 27 -39,289 45 37,488 56 1,801 34
Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88
Soybeans 729,900 28 188,368 72 -159,047 34 -29,321 21
Corn 1,544,885 29 427,848 85 -372,522 19 -55,326 11
Coffee 211,266 5 37,072 71 -38,484 34 1,412 4
Sugar 847,420 11 209,487 80 -255,450 20 45,963 65
Wheat 326,607 8 26,344 53 -24,339 25 -2,005 100

 

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 427,848 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -45,895 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 473,743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.5 42.5 9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.8 66.7 12.7
– Net Position: 427,848 -372,522 -55,326
– Gross Longs: 563,850 657,258 140,433
– Gross Shorts: 136,002 1,029,780 195,759
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 84.7 18.9 11.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.7 10.1 -2.0

 

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 209,487 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,857 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 196,630 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.0 44.9 10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.3 75.0 5.3
– Net Position: 209,487 -255,450 45,963
– Gross Longs: 262,661 380,523 90,969
– Gross Shorts: 53,174 635,973 45,006
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 79.7 19.7 64.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.2 8.8 -19.5

 

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 37,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,487 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.0 54.1 3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.5 72.3 3.2
– Net Position: 37,072 -38,484 1,412
– Gross Longs: 46,580 114,208 8,167
– Gross Shorts: 9,508 152,692 6,755
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 70.9 34.3 4.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.4 12.9 -33.9

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 188,368 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 183,647 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.4 47.3 6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.5 69.1 10.8
– Net Position: 188,368 -159,047 -29,321
– Gross Longs: 236,164 345,076 49,551
– Gross Shorts: 47,796 504,123 78,872
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.6 34.3 21.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.0 3.3 -2.9

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 79,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -16,805 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 96,301 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.1 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.6 47.5 9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.3 74.0 4.5
– Net Position: 79,496 -98,691 19,195
– Gross Longs: 106,705 177,213 35,857
– Gross Shorts: 27,209 275,904 16,662
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.6 36.2 85.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -12.0 12.2 -6.0

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 81,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,607 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,300 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.5 46.5 13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.7 76.6 6.2
– Net Position: 81,907 -108,388 26,481
– Gross Longs: 102,564 167,414 48,827
– Gross Shorts: 20,657 275,802 22,346
– Long to Short Ratio: 5.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 73.1 26.6 70.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -19.1 20.7 -27.9

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 22,747 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,283 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,030 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.7 41.3 11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.1 48.8 11.7
– Net Position: 22,747 -22,153 -594
– Gross Longs: 99,928 122,357 34,015
– Gross Shorts: 77,181 144,510 34,609
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 7.9 83.0 79.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -36.5 29.0 27.5

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 7,358 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -407 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,765 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.3 41.7 10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.6 42.3 13.3
– Net Position: 7,358 -1,239 -6,119
– Gross Longs: 55,555 81,805 19,958
– Gross Shorts: 48,197 83,044 26,077
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 14.8 92.0 64.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -36.4 40.7 -5.5

 

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 72,520 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,796 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 79,316 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.5 36.7 8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.0 77.5 3.2
– Net Position: 72,520 -83,537 11,017
– Gross Longs: 86,947 75,106 17,532
– Gross Shorts: 14,427 158,643 6,515
– Long to Short Ratio: 6.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.9 29.2 82.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.8 7.7 -15.5

 

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 8,583 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,000 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,583 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.9 44.5 5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.0 49.0 4.0
– Net Position: 8,583 -13,540 4,957
– Gross Longs: 89,159 132,424 16,784
– Gross Shorts: 80,576 145,964 11,827
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.0 72.7 46.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.0 32.2 -25.0

 

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 26,344 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,462 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.2 35.4 10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.1 42.9 10.9
– Net Position: 26,344 -24,339 -2,005
– Gross Longs: 118,170 115,722 33,634
– Gross Shorts: 91,826 140,061 35,639
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.3 25.1 100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 3.2 -4.4 3.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.







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