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COT Soft Commodities Speculators raise Cocoa bullish bets to 5-week high

April 2, 2022

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data is the recent rises in Cocoa futures bets. The speculative net position in the Cocoa futures rose this week by the largest one-week amount in the past seven weeks and rose for the third time in the past four weeks. This week’s boost brought the current net standing to the highest standing in the past five weeks at just under the +40,000 net position level. The Cocoa speculator position has been mostly in bullish territory over the past three years with small, short-lived pockets in bearish territory along the way. Cocoa saw its highest sentiment levels of the past three years in early 2020 with speculator positions reaching over +80,000 contracts before spec positions dropped sharply as the pandemic began. Speculator bets fell as low as -17,038 contracts in July 2020. Since then, Cocoa bets have fluctuated between small bearish levels all the way up to +40,000 contracts while the Cocoa price has similarly fluctuated but has maintained a bullish uptrend. This week’s +39,674 contracts level marks a 56.5 percent strength index score which equates to a slightly bullish level compared to the past three years.

All of the soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were Sugar (5,785 contracts), Live Cattle (6,006 contracts), Lean Hogs (7,209 contracts), Cocoa (8,470 contracts) and Wheat (4,069 contracts).

The soft commodity markets that saw lower speculator bets this week were Corn (-37,264 contracts), Coffee (-3,162 contracts), Soybeans (-12,167 contracts), Soybean Oil (-5,284 contracts), Soybean Meal (-6,999 contracts) and Cotton (-3,194 contracts).

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Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Mar-29-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,795,929 1 318,731 0 -360,162 99 41,431 73
Gold 574,521 39 257,596 70 -285,937 30 28,341 45
Silver 147,370 14 48,240 70 -61,372 39 13,132 19
Copper 203,692 29 30,581 64 -37,333 34 6,752 64
Palladium 6,720 1 -2,011 10 1,364 84 647 81
Platinum 61,807 25 14,001 22 -20,754 79 6,753 56
Natural Gas 1,100,690 4 -137,411 37 92,762 60 44,649 92
Brent 188,542 30 -25,220 69 21,609 29 3,611 58
Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88
Soybeans 755,139 34 206,469 81 -178,764 24 -27,705 24
Corn 1,515,106 24 482,092 92 -424,699 11 -57,393 10
Coffee 227,547 6 38,689 77 -42,092 27 3,403 12
Sugar 819,459 1 161,581 70 -202,758 30 41,177 59
Wheat 341,224 3 13,559 59 -9,435 32 -4,124 91

 

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 482,092 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -37,264 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 519,356 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.5 45.6 8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.6 73.7 12.6
– Net Position: 482,092 -424,699 -57,393
– Gross Longs: 552,536 691,549 133,661
– Gross Shorts: 70,444 1,116,248 191,054
– Long to Short Ratio: 7.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.6 11.4 10.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.6 -7.1 -10.3

 

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 161,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 155,796 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.1 49.9 11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.4 74.6 6.0
– Net Position: 161,581 -202,758 41,177
– Gross Longs: 222,154 408,820 90,668
– Gross Shorts: 60,573 611,578 49,491
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.8 29.7 58.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.9 -21.3 31.3

 

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 38,689 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,851 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.4 53.3 4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.4 71.8 2.8
– Net Position: 38,689 -42,092 3,403
– Gross Longs: 50,991 121,208 9,798
– Gross Shorts: 12,302 163,300 6,395
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.7 26.9 11.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -23.0 26.1 -9.7

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 206,469 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,167 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 218,636 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.6 46.4 6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.3 70.1 10.6
– Net Position: 206,469 -178,764 -27,705
– Gross Longs: 253,726 350,240 52,406
– Gross Shorts: 47,257 529,004 80,111
– Long to Short Ratio: 5.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 81.4 23.8 24.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 1.8 4.4

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 87,284 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,284 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 92,568 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.6 49.1 9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.0 79.3 5.2
– Net Position: 87,284 -102,850 15,566
– Gross Longs: 104,186 167,198 33,429
– Gross Shorts: 16,902 270,048 17,863
– Long to Short Ratio: 6.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 70.9 28.4 71.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.8 -11.1 8.3

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 121,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,999 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 128,784 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.3 41.8 12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.6 79.8 4.8
– Net Position: 121,785 -150,719 28,934
– Gross Longs: 135,876 165,743 47,934
– Gross Shorts: 14,091 316,462 19,000
– Long to Short Ratio: 9.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.3 4.6 85.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.8 -7.8 11.4

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 52,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,006 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,739 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.4 41.7 10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.3 55.4 13.8
– Net Position: 52,745 -42,343 -10,402
– Gross Longs: 109,521 129,222 32,487
– Gross Shorts: 56,776 171,565 42,889
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.4 73.1 61.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -20.7 22.6 8.5

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 53,194 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,209 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,985 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 39.1 33.7 9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.6 52.7 13.1
– Net Position: 53,194 -45,016 -8,178
– Gross Longs: 92,407 79,772 22,919
– Gross Shorts: 39,213 124,788 31,097
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 64.7 40.3 52.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.4 13.2 15.0

 

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 84,160 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,194 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,354 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.3 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.2 36.1 9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.2 78.8 3.2
– Net Position: 84,160 -97,258 13,098
– Gross Longs: 98,239 82,066 20,362
– Gross Shorts: 14,079 179,324 7,264
– Long to Short Ratio: 7.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.3 21.1 95.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.1 4.1 15.8

 

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 39,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,470 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,204 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.7 47.4 7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.3 67.5 3.7
– Net Position: 39,674 -48,448 8,774
– Gross Longs: 74,233 114,490 17,726
– Gross Shorts: 34,559 162,938 8,952
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.5 38.8 84.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 5.2 40.5

 

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 13,559 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,069 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,490 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.1 40.5 9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.1 43.3 10.3
– Net Position: 13,559 -9,435 -4,124
– Gross Longs: 112,940 138,288 31,061
– Gross Shorts: 99,381 147,723 35,185
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.6 31.7 91.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.5 -18.9 0.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.







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