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COT Soft Commodities Speculators push Soybeans bullish bets higher for 9th time in 10 weeks

February 12, 2022

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 8th 2022 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data is the continued increases in the Soybeans futures bets. The speculative net position in the Soybeans futures rose for a third consecutive week this week and for the ninth time out of the past ten weeks. Over the past ten weeks, the speculative position has surged higher by a total of 154,413 net contracts and has now pushed the current net spec standing to a thirty-five week high at over +209,000 contracts. The Soybeans positioning has reached an extreme speculator level of 82.2 percent in the strength index readings this week (current spec level compared to past three years of data where above 80% is extreme bullish and below 20% is extreme bearish) for the first time since June 15th of 2021.

The soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were Soybeans (16,357 contracts), Coffee (5,489 contracts), Soybean Meal (7,421 contracts), Live Cattle (14,301 contracts), Lean Hogs (7,121 contracts), Cocoa (15,093 contracts) and Wheat (-3,928 contracts).

The soft commodities that saw lower bets this week were Corn (-35,618 contracts), Sugar (-14,503 contracts), Cotton (-1,790 contracts) and Soybean Oil (-8,375 contracts).

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Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Feb-08-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 2,170,681 46 363,383 18 -412,144 69 48,761 84
Gold 512,842 23 186,706 47 -211,434 53 24,728 34
Silver 147,379 14 19,299 42 -32,571 67 13,272 20
Copper 201,860 28 18,855 56 -25,523 42 6,668 64
Palladium 7,497 5 -1,230 14 1,035 83 195 56
Platinum 58,766 20 11,759 19 -16,638 85 4,879 30
Natural Gas 1,133,934 6 -115,089 44 85,151 58 29,938 55
Brent 208,578 46 -26,323 73 22,725 27 3,598 58
Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88
Soybeans 832,618 52 209,730 82 -176,080 24 -33,650 14
Corn 1,575,318 34 419,602 84 -382,874 17 -36,728 22
Coffee 273,102 39 66,867 97 -72,255 3 5,388 26
Sugar 931,602 25 79,090 53 -96,963 50 17,873 30
Wheat 385,172 26 -3,578 44 7,972 49 -4,394 81

 

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 419,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -35,618 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 455,220 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.0 44.0 9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.4 68.3 11.8
– Net Position: 419,602 -382,874 -36,728
– Gross Longs: 519,855 693,712 148,454
– Gross Shorts: 100,253 1,076,586 185,182
– Long to Short Ratio: 5.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 83.6 17.4 21.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.9 4.1 5.5

 

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 79,090 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -14,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 93,593 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.8 57.1 8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.3 67.5 7.0
– Net Position: 79,090 -96,963 17,873
– Gross Longs: 184,040 532,127 83,261
– Gross Shorts: 104,950 629,090 65,388
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 52.9 49.8 30.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -21.7 21.2 -8.0

 

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 66,867 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 61,378 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.3 42.3 4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.8 68.8 2.7
– Net Position: 66,867 -72,255 5,388
– Gross Longs: 79,999 115,622 12,695
– Gross Shorts: 13,132 187,877 7,307
– Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 97.2 3.2 25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.4 -11.2 18.3

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 209,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 16,357 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 193,373 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.7 45.5 6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.5 66.6 10.7
– Net Position: 209,730 -176,080 -33,650
– Gross Longs: 255,224 378,830 55,648
– Gross Shorts: 45,494 554,910 89,298
– Long to Short Ratio: 5.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 82.2 24.4 14.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.8 -19.5 -2.4

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 66,035 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,375 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,410 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.2 47.7 8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.8 65.8 5.9
– Net Position: 66,035 -77,767 11,732
– Gross Longs: 107,923 204,514 36,975
– Gross Shorts: 41,888 282,281 25,243
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.5 40.9 57.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.7 -16.6 29.2

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 106,260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,421 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 98,839 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.4 43.0 11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.1 73.4 5.0
– Net Position: 106,260 -132,541 26,281
– Gross Longs: 128,328 187,284 48,040
– Gross Shorts: 22,068 319,825 21,759
– Long to Short Ratio: 5.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.0 7.0 76.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.5 -10.4 15.6

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 79,809 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 14,301 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,508 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.5 36.9 9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.4 56.2 13.7
– Net Position: 79,809 -66,920 -12,889
– Gross Longs: 129,605 127,373 34,272
– Gross Shorts: 49,796 194,293 47,161
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.6 52.8 55.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.6 -7.6 -12.2

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 66,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,121 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,521 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.3 31.9 8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.2 51.8 12.4
– Net Position: 66,642 -54,973 -11,669
– Gross Longs: 114,130 88,056 22,616
– Gross Shorts: 47,488 143,029 34,285
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 79.7 25.8 29.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.5 -13.3 15.1

 

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 97,210 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,790 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,000 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.1 36.5 7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.7 77.8 3.0
– Net Position: 97,210 -110,111 12,901
– Gross Longs: 112,341 97,445 20,934
– Gross Shorts: 15,131 207,556 8,033
– Long to Short Ratio: 7.4 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 84.6 13.6 94.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.0 -4.5 8.0

 

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 42,855 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 15,093 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,762 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.4 43.7 5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.3 62.6 3.2
– Net Position: 42,855 -47,234 4,379
– Gross Longs: 78,615 109,531 12,487
– Gross Shorts: 35,760 156,765 8,108
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 62.4 36.7 58.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 36.1 -37.8 31.2

 

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,578 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,928 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 350 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.0 39.5 9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.9 37.4 10.6
– Net Position: -3,578 7,972 -4,394
– Gross Longs: 103,885 152,212 36,456
– Gross Shorts: 107,463 144,240 40,850
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.0 48.6 80.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.1 6.2 14.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.







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